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David Johnson 2019 Outlook

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8 minutes ago, Jags02 said:

 

As a Jags fan I tend to have a sense what the TItans are thinking. We play them twice a year. It's not just Vrabel making it more than obvious. It's clearly the mind-set of that team. If you know the Titans. You know they plan to run and play defense. It's who they are, and Henry can friggin run. 

As for DJ, there's not much to like about any RB playing in a shotgun system.. .and forget about his ypc being so great in the shotgun... RB ypcs are generally great in the shotgun as defenses plan on you passing... but when you play strictly shotgun and have DJ, teams are going to account for DJ.  It's not a good situation. He'll get some action, but he's no longer a top 10 fantasy RB in my mind.

 

Yes, and the NFC South had a sense of what Sean Payton was thinking..."pass, pass, pass". And then he reverted back to 2009's success and started running the ball again. Sure the Titans want to run and play defense, but they also have to realize that zero passing game won't get it done. Henry may very well rush for 1400 this year, but I do believe that Tennessee will attempt to be more active in the passing game. 

As far as DJ, I have a different perspective. I believe spreading teams out, be it under center or in the gun, is going to open more lanes. He might not reach 1000 yards (don't necessarily agree with that assessment either), but I to believe a healthy DJ turns in at least 1500 yards and 10-12 TDs. Based on last year, that would put him in the top 10. But, the two unknowns are what it will take to reach the top 10 this year and what Kliff's offense will really look like this year. 

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7 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Yes, and the NFC South had a sense of what Sean Payton was thinking..."pass, pass, pass". And then he reverted back to 2009's success and started running the ball again. Sure the Titans want to run and play defense, but they also have to realize that zero passing game won't get it done. Henry may very well rush for 1400 this year, but I do believe that Tennessee will attempt to be more active in the passing game. 

As far as DJ, I have a different perspective. I believe spreading teams out, be it under center or in the gun, is going to open more lanes. He might not reach 1000 yards (don't necessarily agree with that assessment either), but I to believe a healthy DJ turns in at least 1500 yards and 10-12 TDs. Based on last year, that would put him in the top 10. But, the two unknowns are what it will take to reach the top 10 this year and what Kliff's offense will really look like this year. 

 

I'll give you this...

I too expect him to reach 1500 total yards and that will probably put him in the top 10 at the end of the year.

That said, from a fantasy perspective at this point, I have 10 RBs who I feel will reach or top 1600 total yards.

DJ is my #11 RB, and I don't see any reason to bump him up. Right now it's more between him and my #12 RB Damien Williams.

Edited by Jags02

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1 minute ago, Jags02 said:

 

I'll give you this...

I too expect him to reach 1500 total yards and that will probably put him in the top 10 at the end of the year.

That said, from a fantasy perspective at this point, I have 10 RBs who I feel are more likely to end up ranking in the top 10.

DJ is my #11 RB, and I don't see any reason to bump him up. Right now it's more between him and my #12 RB Damien Williams.

 

No doubt that I'm not completely sold on DJ. I have questions about him, mostly because we just don't know what the system will actually look like on the field. He may be top 8 or he may fall out of the top 15. Lots of uncertainty about him, imho. I do have some belief in him, but the side of the fence I fall on changes almost everyday. Lol. 

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1 minute ago, Flyman75 said:

 

No doubt that I'm not completely sold on DJ. I have questions about him, mostly because we just don't know what the system will actually look like on the field. He may be top 8 or he may fall out of the top 15. Lots of uncertainty about him, imho. I do have some belief in him, but the side of the fence I fall on changes almost everyday. Lol. 

 

The bright with DJ is he doesn't have injury or character red flags, and nobody is threatening his starting gig. With that in mind he is more likely to get close to his 1500 total yard projection. For instance, I have Henry and Fournette with like 1600 total yards, but they carry more risk of somehow disappearing. At least you know DJ isn't going to disappear. 

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34 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

No doubt that I'm not completely sold on DJ. I have questions about him, mostly because we just don't know what the system will actually look like on the field. He may be top 8 or he may fall out of the top 15. Lots of uncertainty about him, imho. I do have some belief in him, but the side of the fence I fall on changes almost everyday. Lol. 

DJ was top 10 in the crapshoot of an offense they had last year.  He doesn't even have "falling out of the top 15" downside.

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4 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

DJ was top 10 in the crapshoot of an offense they had last year.  He doesn't even have "falling out of the top 15" downside.

 

Any RB not named Kamara, McCaffrey, Barkley, Elliott, or Gordon has "falling out of the top 15" downside. Do I believe he will? No, but the downside is there...in part because I believe the RB position will be deeper this year. I believe the 10th ranked RB will have to score more points this year than the 10th ranked RB in 2018. I believe the 15th ranked RB will score more than the 15th ranked RB last year. Jmho. 

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5 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

DJ was top 10 in the crapshoot of an offense they had last year.  He doesn't even have "falling out of the top 15" downside.

 

Let's take a statistical measure by eliminating his top two games and his bottom two games, taking his averages, and then extrapolating that back over 16 games. You can do this with any RB to help eliminate anomalies...

  • 245 carries, 811 yards, 3.3 avg, 8 TDs, 44 rec, 329 yards, 7.5 avg, 3 TDs

 

That's only 1140 total yards and no way ranks in the top 10. 

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30 minutes ago, Jags02 said:

Let's take a statistical measure by eliminating his top two games and his bottom two games, taking his averages, and then extrapolating that back over 16 games. You can do this with any RB to help eliminate anomalies...

  • 245 carries, 811 yards, 3.3 avg, 8 TDs, 44 rec, 329 yards, 7.5 avg, 3 TDs

 

That's only 1140 total yards and no way ranks in the top 10. 

1.  No, let's not.

2.  We keep talking about the 2018 Cardinals as if they still exist.  They do not.  It only goes up from here.

3.  Why don't you go ahead and try that with your boy Derrick Henry.

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5 hours ago, Jags02 said:

 

Let's take a statistical measure by eliminating his top two games and his bottom two games, taking his averages, and then extrapolating that back over 16 games. You can do this with any RB to help eliminate anomalies...

  • 245 carries, 811 yards, 3.3 avg, 8 TDs, 44 rec, 329 yards, 7.5 avg, 3 TDs

 

That's only 1140 total yards and no way ranks in the top 10. 

 

LOL. 

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4 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

1.  No, let's not.

2.  We keep talking about the 2018 Cardinals as if they still exist.  They do not.  It only goes up from here.

3.  Why don't you go ahead and try that with your boy Derrick Henry.

 

Henry's stats are deceptive because they weren't using him how they'll be using him this year until late in the season.

I'm just really not excited about DJs situation unless they feed him through the air, but the rookie QB has so many options and that offense could get shut down at times.

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12 hours ago, Jags02 said:

 

Why? He didn't do it last year, and in a pass-happy shotgun offense I'm expecting less carries this year.

 

That offense was brutal last year and they ran less than most of the league. If DJ plays 16 games and doesnt get 1000 yards, I will quit fantasy.

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3 hours ago, Jags02 said:

 

Henry's stats are deceptive because they weren't using him how they'll be using him this year until late in the season.

I'm just really not excited about DJs situation unless they feed him through the air, but the rookie QB has so many options and that offense could get shut down at times.

Huh? It’s a knock on DJ that he wasn’t used right but not Henry? And you’re worried about DJ not getting receptions even though they are moving to a more pass happy offense? even though Henry doesn’t get any receptions? 

You also eliminated DJs best games but not Henry?

This is backwards

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4 hours ago, Jags02 said:

Henry's stats are deceptive because they weren't using him how they'll be using him this year until late in the season.

I'm just really not excited about DJs situation unless they feed him through the air, but the rookie QB has so many options and that offense could get shut down at times.

You can take away Henry's best game and his 3 worst games for all I care.  Almost 1/3 of his production came from 1 game last year.

 

I'm also not sure why you expect a team with a rookie Quarterback to avoid running the football?  Also why is the Titans offense going to be so much better than the Cardinals offense?

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8 hours ago, Jags02 said:

 

Henry's stats are deceptive because they weren't using him how they'll be using him this year until late in the season.

I'm just really not excited about DJs situation unless they feed him through the air, but the rookie QB has so many options and that offense could get shut down at times.

 

You are excited about Henry's? Mariota is  the worst starting QB in the league

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16 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

I'm also not sure why you expect a team with a rookie Quarterback to avoid running the football?  Also why is the Titans offense going to be so much better than the Cardinals offense?

1

 

It's more about the shotgun spread offense being a pass-happy offense not ideal for the running game. In regards to the Titans, their offense is more conducive to fielding a strong running game. If that doesn't make sense, I don't know what to say. The Titans look to run. The Cards look to pass. It's that simple in my book.

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On 6/7/2019 at 2:07 AM, Jags02 said:

 

Let's take a statistical measure by eliminating his top two games and his bottom two games, taking his averages, and then extrapolating that back over 16 games. You can do this with any RB to help eliminate anomalies...

  • 245 carries, 811 yards, 3.3 avg, 8 TDs, 44 rec, 329 yards, 7.5 avg, 3 TDs

 

That's only 1140 total yards and no way ranks in the top 10. 

 

In 12 games....

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12 minutes ago, BornandbredHeel said:

 

In 12 games....

No, he took the values for 12 games, and multiplied that by 16/12, so we're back to 16 games. 

Except when I do it (disclaimer: on mobile and I may miss something) I get to 1249, not 1140.

In any case, in itself it's not a terrible idea, but 1) you would have to do it with all say top 20 RBs, not one random one, and 2) the method gets more suspicious with fewer games, so for guys who have say only 10 games it's more tricky.

It's a common scientific method to exclude extremes when calculating averages and stdev, but you have to be very careful in doing it, or you'll skew your data more.

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On 1/4/2019 at 10:36 AM, BrianM said:

  In a time where more and more teams endlessly pass to their RB's, a team with little in the way of WR depth,, and one of the best pass catchers out of the backfield, that was usually playing from behind.........cut BACK on this.  I know their overall play count was down, but it was mind boggling how many times you'd see the Cards trailing for an entire game, but DJ catches maybe 3 passes.    It can't be hard to fix this for 2019, and if they do, he's a top 10 RB for sure, maybe even challenging for top 5 again if he can score enough times.  

And I think it's likely Klingler does not make the same mistake and this is why this guy is borderline RB1 again.  He nabbed 50 catches in a DOWN year.  If you're PPR and go WR and/or QB high, you should feel pretty good about settling for him as your RB1 IMO.

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11 minutes ago, bomont said:

Klingler does not make the same mistake

f337d70163f46cf6606aa4838b3282d2.gif

Edited by Boudewijn
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19 hours ago, Jags02 said:

 

It's more about the shotgun spread offense being a pass-happy offense not ideal for the running game. In regards to the Titans, their offense is more conducive to fielding a strong running game. If that doesn't make sense, I don't know what to say. The Titans look to run. The Cards look to pass. It's that simple in my book.

 

Strange take but ok.  Counterpoint:

 

"You want the best receivers and versatile running backs," said Washington State coach Mike Leach, who is considered to be one of the masterminds of the Air Raid. "It's really kind of the same as everything. You teach pass protection. You teach ball skills, and then the running back is the most important player in it -- him and the quarterback.

"You're asking a running back to do things that they've been asked a long time to do, which is, run, block and catch. You think of guys like Edgerrin James, Marshall Faulk, those are prime examples of guys who are great in this type of offense. James basically played in the Air Raid in Indianapolis."

At 6-foot-1 and 214 pounds, Johnson is bigger than both James and Faulk.

"A guy that big who moves like he does, that's pretty rare," Kingsbury said.

Texas Tech RB Usage Under Kingsbury

YEAR RUSH/GAME REC./GAME
ESPN Stats & Information
2018 24.3 5.2
2017 26.7 3.5
2016 19.6 4.9
2015 23.7 5.3
2014 23.0 5.1
2013 19.2 5.1
Total 22.8 4.8

Johnson said the goal is to run 90 to 95 plays per game, primarily out of the shotgun and primarily no-huddle, which could provide more opportunities. During Kingsbury's six years at Texas Tech, running backs accounted for 43 percent of his team's touches, according to ESPN Stats & Information data.

Another component of the Air Raid that will benefit Johnson is its spread tendency. That means Johnson could get more touches in space.

"It's going to be really helpful because only having to worry about one guy tackling you, compared to three, four guys loading the box," Johnson said.

 

http://espn.com/blog/arizona-cardinals/post/_/id/31763/cardinals-david-johnson-seeks-an-air-raid-renaissance

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

No, he took the values for 12 games, and multiplied that by 16/12, so we're back to 16 games. 

Except when I do it (disclaimer: on mobile and I may miss something) I get to 1249, not 1140.

In any case, in itself it's not a terrible idea, but 1) you would have to do it with all say top 20 RBs, not one random one, and 2) the method gets more suspicious with fewer games, so for guys who have say only 10 games it's more tricky.

It's a common scientific method to exclude extremes when calculating averages and stdev, but you have to be very careful in doing it, or you'll skew your data more.

 

Oops... you're right. I got the rushing yards correct, but need to add 109 passing yards.

 

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On 6/7/2019 at 12:35 AM, Flyman75 said:

 

Any RB not named Kamara, McCaffrey, Barkley, Elliott, or Gordon has "falling out of the top 15" downside. Do I believe he will? No, but the downside is there...in part because I believe the RB position will be deeper this year. I believe the 10th ranked RB will have to score more points this year than the 10th ranked RB in 2018. I believe the 15th ranked RB will score more than the 15th ranked RB last year. Jmho. 

 

You're going into the season with belief that 15 RB's will play 15-16 games it sounds like, and that's where things get a bit hard for me. 

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On 6/7/2019 at 10:14 AM, dmb3684 said:

 

That offense was brutal last year and they ran less than most of the league. If DJ plays 16 games and doesnt get 1000 yards, I will quit fantasy.

 

Total yards or rushing? Cause rushing might not be a bet you want to make IMO. 

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18 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Strange take but ok.  Counterpoint:

 

"You want the best receivers and versatile running backs," said Washington State coach Mike Leach, who is considered to be one of the masterminds of the Air Raid. "It's really kind of the same as everything. You teach pass protection. You teach ball skills, and then the running back is the most important player in it -- him and the quarterback.

"You're asking a running back to do things that they've been asked a long time to do, which is, run, block and catch. You think of guys like Edgerrin James, Marshall Faulk, those are prime examples of guys who are great in this type of offense. James basically played in the Air Raid in Indianapolis."

At 6-foot-1 and 214 pounds, Johnson is bigger than both James and Faulk.

"A guy that big who moves like he does, that's pretty rare," Kingsbury said.

Texas Tech RB Usage Under Kingsbury

YEAR RUSH/GAME REC./GAME
ESPN Stats & Information
2018 24.3 5.2
2017 26.7 3.5
2016 19.6 4.9
2015 23.7 5.3
2014 23.0 5.1
2013 19.2 5.1
Total 22.8 4.8

Johnson said the goal is to run 90 to 95 plays per game, primarily out of the shotgun and primarily no-huddle, which could provide more opportunities. During Kingsbury's six years at Texas Tech, running backs accounted for 43 percent of his team's touches, according to ESPN Stats & Information data.

Another component of the Air Raid that will benefit Johnson is its spread tendency. That means Johnson could get more touches in space.

"It's going to be really helpful because only having to worry about one guy tackling you, compared to three, four guys loading the box," Johnson said.

 

http://espn.com/blog/arizona-cardinals/post/_/id/31763/cardinals-david-johnson-seeks-an-air-raid-renaissance

 

Leading rusher in his offense last year didn't even break 500 yards. 

 

24 rushes per game and 5 receptions per game would be pretty badass if they were used exclusively on 1 back. 

 

Last couple years I watched Tech this was never once even remotely the case. 

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