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David Johnson 2019 Outlook


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6 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Leading rusher in his offense last year didn't even break 500 yards. 

 

24 rushes per game and 5 receptions per game would be pretty badass if they were used exclusively on 1 back. 

 

Last couple years I watched Tech this was never once even remotely the case. 

 

Tech didn't have DJ.

 

I think their best RB was DeAndre Washington?

 

Big difference

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Would have been nice if he said this before the game.

Did your backup get all the reps in your furniture moving business while you were out?  That’s the only part of your analogy that us Chase Edmonds owners care about.

this is what fantasy football has come to 🤦🏻‍♂️

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8 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

You're going into the season with belief that 15 RB's will play 15-16 games it sounds like, and that's where things get a bit hard for me. 

 

No, I know better than to believe that. But going in, I can't assume anyone is going to get hurt. I have to enter the season assuming every RB is going to play 15-16 games, even though I know they won't. Playing the guessing game on who will miss time due to injury and who won't is a dangerous game. 

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4 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Tech didn't have DJ.

 

I think their best RB was DeAndre Washington?

 

Big difference

 

This is a good point. We will see. 

 

2 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

No, I know better than to believe that. But going in, I can't assume anyone is going to get hurt. I have to enter the season assuming every RB is going to play 15-16 games, even though I know they won't. Playing the guessing game on who will miss time due to injury and who won't is a dangerous game. 

 

I agree with your statement here. Fair point. 

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5 hours ago, Jags02 said:

It's possible a brand spanking new spread shotgun offense full of rookies could ultimately fall flat in the NFL.

Can't possibly be worse than last year

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55 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Can't possibly be worse than last year

Haha. Is this your first year watching the NFL? Teams can ALWAYS do worse. Just ask the Lions. Or the Jets. Or your own Jags for most of the past decade ;)

Seriously:
- their star WR is one year older
- their star RB is one year older and they don't plan to run as much
- they have a brand new spanking fresh rookie, who could be better than the guy they just paid for a year to get some experience, but on the other hand, he needs a stepladder on the field.
- they have a new head coach who is fresh from college and didn't actually do that great. He only had 8 wins in his first season, and it was solid misery after that; they never reached a bowl game in 6 seasons. He hasn't coached a single game in the NFL, and so far does not seem to understand the NFL.
- on the plus side, KK also definitely doesn't understand defense, so they should be playing catch-up a lot. Garbage time aplenty.
I am honestly not banking on them being better, or at least not a lot. 

I HOPE that they will do better. IF that "air raid" pays off, and IF they can pass 60 times a game like KK seems to plan on doing, and IF all the receivers pay off (including DJ), then as a Football fan, we could have some cool stuff to look at. But for now I'm playing Grumpy Grampa and saying that ain't happening, son.

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6 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Haha. Is this your first year watching the NFL? Teams can ALWAYS do worse. Just ask the Lions. Or the Jets. Or your own Jags for most of the past decade ;)

Let me get this straight.  The #32 offense in ppg and YPG that is getting 5 starting offensive linemen back healthy is somehow going to get worse?

 

6 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

- their star RB is one year older and they don't plan to run as much 

I love how there is somehow an aging argument with David Johnson now lol

 

He's 27 with 848 career touches

 

As for not planning on running as much that's just not true whatsoever.  I'm not sure where you're getting that information.

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18 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

As for not planning on running as much that's just not true whatsoever.  I'm not sure where you're getting that information.

I was going to slap you in the face with some obvious quotes I would find within 2 minutes of googling, because everyone knows his Air Raid offense is pass pass pass, with only the occasonial rush thrown in.

Except:

- I can't find any quote from Kingsbury that he even plans to use the air raid in the NFL. In fact, it's hard enough to find recent interviews with him, much less any interview where he says anything remotely interesting. 

- his version of the air raid last season was quite average in pass/rush ratio; just a much higher pass ratio on first down (48% in the NFL, 68% last year at TT)

So, I stand corrected (I sit) and I'll shut up for now. But as soon as I find those obvious quotes, there's going to be some slapping.
giphy.gif

 

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3 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

- his version of the air raid last season was quite average in pass/rush ratio; just a much higher pass ratio on first down (48% in the NFL, 68% last year at TT)

It also involved a lot of targets to the RB's, which some people seem to think won't happen as much because of Kyler's rushing ability.  I guess we'll see.

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13 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I was going to slap you in the face with some obvious quotes I would find within 2 minutes of googling, because everyone knows his Air Raid offense is pass pass pass, with only the occasonial rush thrown in.

Except:

- I can't find any quote from Kingsbury that he even plans to use the air raid in the NFL. In fact, it's hard enough to find recent interviews with him, much less any interview where he says anything remotely interesting. 

- his version of the air raid last season was quite average in pass/rush ratio; just a much higher pass ratio on first down (48% in the NFL, 68% last year at TT)

So, I stand corrected (I sit) and I'll shut up for now. But as soon as I find those obvious quotes, there's going to be some slapping.
 

 

 

One of Kingsbury's strengths is that he has always been good with mixing and matching his scheme to fit his personnel, and not the other way around. Making it pretty much impossible at this point to draw any statistical conclusions or make predictions about how it's going to look, really. Was even hard from year to year in college due to the high turnover of players. The only time he had a good running back, DeAndre Washington, he was used though. Washington averaged 17.92 rushes and 3.15 receptions per game in a 7-6 season, pretty evenly spread out with above 20 rush attempts six times and not only in wins. 144 total yards per game rushing and receiving.

When he had Coutee and Batson as dynamic slot receivers, he incorporated stuff like short decoy routes for the outside receivers to scheme the slots open. 2018 it looked different again having the big bodies outside in Vasher and Wesley after Coutee and Batson had left. And so on.

Kingsbury stated several times already, as recent as this week, that they don't even know themselves how the offense is going to look yet. Of course they have an idea but will be testing concepts all through OTA's and camp. What often gets lost in the shuffle with every writer hyping the air raid by the way, is that many of the spread concepts has already been in the NFL for a few years now in different shapes.

What absolutely will remain however is his core concept of adjusting to his players' talents. DJ is easily the biggest and most unique (non-QB, both Mahomes and Murray are/seems pretty damn special) talent he's had at his disposal. He might even be the biggest receiver weapon they have at this point. Kingsbury is a great, super creative offensive mind. I wouldn't worry about DJ a bit.

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, Alconbury said:

 

One of Kingsbury's strengths is that he has always been good with mixing and matching his scheme to fit his personnel, and not the other way around. Making it pretty much impossible at this point to draw any statistical conclusions or make predictions about how it's going to look, really. Was even hard from year to year in college due to the high turnover of players. The only time he had a good running back, DeAndre Washington, he was used though. Washington averaged 17.92 rushes and 3.15 receptions per game in a 7-6 season, pretty evenly spread out with above 20 rush attempts six times and not only in wins. 144 total yards per game rushing and receiving.

When he had Coutee and Batson as dynamic slot receivers, he incorporated stuff like short decoy routes for the outside receivers to scheme the slots open. 2018 it looked different again having the big bodies outside in Vasher and Wesley after Coutee and Batson had left. And so on.

Kingsbury stated several times already, as recent as this week, that they don't even know themselves how the offense is going to look yet. Of course they have an idea but will be testing concepts all through OTA's and camp. What often gets lost in the shuffle with every writer hyping the air raid by the way, is that many of the spread concepts has already been in the NFL for a few years now in different shapes.

What absolutely will remain however is his core concept of adjusting to his players' talents. DJ is easily the biggest and most unique (non-QB, both Mahomes and Murray are/seems pretty damn special) talent he's had at his disposal. He might even be the biggest receiver weapon they have at this point. Kingsbury is a great, super creative offensive mind. I wouldn't worry about DJ a bit.

 

 

 

 

Lol who cares about his collegiate system "mixing and matching to strengths" or whatever. 

 

You realize this guy was a loser right? 

 

He had pat Mahomes. 

 

He played in the big 12.

 

He had several out of conference free wins a season. 

 

He struggled to break 500. 

 

I know I know... Fantasy is about offense (mostly), but a guy that couldn't beat college defenses consistently has to give some of y'all at least a little bit of pause when it comes to NFL defenses right?? 

 

Bigger, faster, stronger, better... It's not just words. It's true. This is the big show now. 

 

0 high draft picks will be sent this direction for better or worse from me. 

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8 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

a guy that couldn't beat college defenses consistently

I don't think that's correct. In fact his Offense consistently got in the top scoring Offenses (2nd in 2015, 5th in 2016).

It was in fact his defense that consistently failed to beat offenses (last place in 2016, finally up to 86th in 2018). That's what got him fired.

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20 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

but a guy that couldn't beat college defenses consistently has to give some of y'all at least a little bit of pause when it comes to NFL defenses right?? 

 

Bigger, faster, stronger, better... It's not just words. It's true. This is the big show now. 

 

But...he did beat college defenses consistently. Offensive production wasn't the problem at TT.

And yes, the defenders he'll be facing will be bigger, faster, stronger, better...but so will the offensive players he'll be using. Goes both ways. 

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1 hour ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Bigger, faster, stronger, better... It's not just words. It's true. This is the big show now.  

He's not bringing TT players with him, just the playbook.

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3 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Lol who cares about his collegiate system "mixing and matching to strengths" or whatever.

You realize this guy was a loser right?

He had pat Mahomes.

He played in the big 12.

He had several out of conference free wins a season.

He struggled to break 500.

I know I know... Fantasy is about offense (mostly), but a guy that couldn't beat college defenses consistently has to give some of y'all at least a little bit of pause when it comes to NFL defenses right??

Bigger, faster, stronger, better... It's not just words. It's true. This is the big show now.

0 high draft picks will be sent this direction for better or worse from me. 

 

Errr, in a discussion about trends in his offensive scheme and how it could affect DJ it is highly relevant to understand he's always greatly adjusted his scheme to his roster's talents. Way more relevant than most silly narrow-minded playground arguments that gets thrown around here. That he is a loser is such a tired argument. You even shoot it down yourself a few rows later. While ill-informedly stating he couldn't beat college defenses though so I guess you ironically managed to fail that as well anyway.

Losing record is actually a somewhat flawed argument even when talking Kingsbury the head coach, not only Kingsbury the offensive mind, where it is close to irrelevant. College football isn't an even playing field like the NFL with its drafting system. Money, location, pedigree of program are just as important as actual coaching there. It's interesting to reflect on why college coaches who come into the NFL rarely succeeds. What is the type that almost exclusively gets hired? Famous coaches from the big, wealthy schools, on the premise that winning record automatically means good coach that will translate. Food for thought.

To consistently put up the offensive numbers Kingsbury has done with a midlevel school like Texas Tech is impressive. Defense isn't his thing but no one claims this and the Cardinals know this. I'm pretty sure Vance Joseph will pull close to all the strings on the defensive side of the ball. But again, it's close to irrelevant when discussing Kingsbury the offensive mind, anyway.

I won't even comment on the bigger, faster, stronger argument. Just stupid, and already taken care of by Flyman and RMJ.

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9 hours ago, Alconbury said:

 

Errr, in a discussion about trends in his offensive scheme and how it could affect DJ it is highly relevant to understand he's always greatly adjusted his scheme to his roster's talents. Way more relevant than most silly narrow-minded playground arguments that gets thrown around here. That he is a loser is such a tired argument. You even shoot it down yourself a few rows later. While ill-informedly stating he couldn't beat college defenses though so I guess you ironically managed to fail that as well anyway.

Losing record is actually a somewhat flawed argument even when talking Kingsbury the head coach, not only Kingsbury the offensive mind, where it is close to irrelevant. College football isn't an even playing field like the NFL with its drafting system. Money, location, pedigree of program are just as important as actual coaching there. It's interesting to reflect on why college coaches who come into the NFL rarely succeeds. What is the type that almost exclusively gets hired? Famous coaches from the big, wealthy schools, on the premise that winning record automatically means good coach that will translate. Food for thought.

To consistently put up the offensive numbers Kingsbury has done with a midlevel school like Texas Tech is impressive. Defense isn't his thing but no one claims this and the Cardinals know this. I'm pretty sure Vance Joseph will pull close to all the strings on the defensive side of the ball. But again, it's close to irrelevant when discussing Kingsbury the offensive mind, anyway.

 

I agree with alot of what you say here. But I dont put a lot of stock into KK either. I sorta think he is a bit of a loser or just not a great coach. 

I think we shouldnt give coaches a pass because they played at a middling school and got middle of the road results. Good coaches take awful teams and win a few games and bad teams get to 500 while middling teams push 10 wins.

Mike leach is probably the perfect example here. He coached at Texas tech for years and was far far more successful than KK. And when he coached they actually played some defense in the big 12. Texas and oklahoma were always talking national championship and then Oklahoma state nebraska Missouri and Texas a&m were nationally ranked. Hell Kansas even had that one crazy year where ther won 12 games. But Mike leach took those bottom recruits (sure no pat mahomes) and made them work and won games and never played a lick of defense.

All that said KKs teams could get alot of yards and score alot of points so hopefully he will be good for DJ, kyler, and kirk.

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4 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

 

I agree with alot of what you say here. But I dont put a lot of stock into KK either. I sorta think he is a bit of a loser or just not a great coach. 

I think we shouldnt give coaches a pass because they played at a middling school and got middle of the road results. Good coaches take awful teams and win a few games and bad teams get to 500 while middling teams push 10 wins.

Mike leach is probably the perfect example here. He coached at Texas tech for years and was far far more successful than KK. And when he coached they actually played some defense in the big 12. Texas and oklahoma were always talking national championship and then Oklahoma state nebraska Missouri and Texas a&m were nationally ranked. Hell Kansas even had that one crazy year where ther won 12 games. But Mike leach took those bottom recruits (sure no pat mahomes) and made them work and won games and never played a lick of defense.

All that said KKs teams could get alot of yards and score alot of points so hopefully he will be good for DJ, kyler, and kirk.

 

Yeah, I'm not saying he is or is not a good head coach because I don't really know, the jury is still out on that one. I was mainly pointing out a flaw in the argument.

And well, Mike Leach is a legend, first of all. However, him being the pioneer of the air raid was virtually running a cheat code for many of those years before the others started to catch up and adapt. The other teams weren't capable of keeping up with Tech in a shootout so Leach kinda didn't even have to play defense. Few years later the big programs had incorporated Leach's spread concepts but was running it with five star recruits instead. Early 2000's the amount of college teams averaging 35+ points per game were way way less than you see today. Amount of college teams averaging 35+ ppg, Leach's first four years (2000-2003) vs Kingsbury final four (2015-2018), just to paint a picture (stats from mcubed.net):

2000: 14 teams (Tech PPG: 25.4)

2001: 14 (33.5)

2002: 12 (36.9)

2003: 13 (42.5)

.....

2015: 31 (45.1)

2016: 33 (43.7)

2017: 21 (34.3)

2018: 22 (37.3)

 

But yeah, sidetracking territory. Good coach or not, the outlook of Kingsbury managing to put up a lot of yards and points thus supporting a good fantasy season for David Johnson looks quite promising either way.

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13 minutes ago, Alconbury said:

 

Yeah, I'm not saying he is or is not a good head coach because I don't really know, the jury is still out on that one. I was mainly pointing out a flaw in the argument.

And well, Mike Leach is a legend, first of all. However, him being the pioneer of the air raid was virtually running a cheat code for many of those years before the others started to catch up and adapt. The other teams weren't capable of keeping up with Tech in a shootout so Leach kinda didn't even have to play defense. Few years later the big programs had incorporated Leach's spread concepts but was running it with five star recruits instead. Early 2000's the amount of college teams averaging 35+ points per game were way way less than you see today. Amount of college teams averaging 35+ ppg, Leach's first four years (2000-2003) vs Kingsbury final four (2015-2018), just to paint a picture (stats from mcubed.net):

2000: 14 teams (Tech PPG: 25.4)

2001: 14 (33.5)

2002: 12 (36.9)

2003: 13 (42.5)

.....

2015: 31 (45.1)

2016: 33 (43.7)

2017: 21 (34.3)

2018: 22 (37.3)

 

But yeah, sidetracking territory. Good coach or not, the outlook of Kingsbury managing to put up a lot of yards and points thus supporting a good fantasy season for David Johnson looks quite promising either way.

 

If I could design a NFL team best suited for fantasy points I would pick a team who had an incredible offense and a leaky defense.

 

What do we want in fantasy football? Chasing stats. Look at KC last year, amazing offense and a leaky defense. KC keeps scoring and Maholmes, Hunt, Hill, Kelce, all feast on a weekly basis.

 

Not saying KK will be able to have an offense as good as KC but I think the defensive aspect is being overblown. They brought in a competent DC and I'd prefer a middle of the road defense to cause Arizona to score even more to win games. All Pro-DJ fans in this thread just want KK to turn this into a high octane, fantasy stat accumulating offense. I'm hoping DJ, Murray, Kirk, Fitz will all have great fantasy stats despite whether he wins games or not.

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