thebadferret

David Johnson 2019 Outlook

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im drafting 6 so I came here to see some news about DJ because this is about the range. looks like a kingsbury thread in here. anyone got some pro's and con's or predictions going into this year with yes, a new coach, new qb, etc..

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29 minutes ago, floppy said:

im drafting 6 so I came here to see some news about DJ because this is about the range. looks like a kingsbury thread in here. anyone got some pro's and con's or predictions going into this year with yes, a new coach, new qb, etc..

I think you may expect a bit much from this forum. Yes, that information is here, but you'll have to find your way to it through pages of people getting side-tracked, getting side-tracked on the side-tracks, personal insults, trolling, and then, when you have hacked yourself through that jungle, you find another gif...

source.gif

But the info is there. Promise.

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41 minutes ago, floppy said:

im drafting 6 so I came here to see some news about DJ because this is about the range. looks like a kingsbury thread in here. anyone got some pro's and con's or predictions going into this year with yes, a new coach, new qb, etc..

He’s as good of a pick at 6 as any.    Right there with Kamara CMAC for me.    Too much unknown to say much more than he will be a focal point of what looks like a fantasy friendly offense.  Or could be a complete flop.   As long as they’re giving DJ the ball in multiple ways, I like our chances. 

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29 minutes ago, floppy said:

im drafting 6 so I came here to see some news about DJ because this is about the range. looks like a kingsbury thread in here. anyone got some pro's and con's or predictions going into this year with yes, a new coach, new qb, etc..

 

Kinda has to gravitate towards that at this point due to basically the whole foundation being changed around him. We already know what DJ can do. But you need to dig way deeper than the regular extrapolating of last year's numbers or looking at the statistical trends for the position in the new scheme because in this case you can't even do that. Kingsbury's offense changed that much from year to year even in college since he creatively adapts scheme to personnel rather than personnel to scheme. Which is one reason I believe he can work out in the NFL by the way.

Scheme to personnel happens to be a big positive for DJ as well, obviously. I do see a lot of promise regarding his 2019, which is further discussed in my last few posts above, but conventional wisdom still tells me to go for something more of a sure thing drafting at 6th. Might change come August regarding DJ, but I'm not quite there yet. Perhaps sacrificing the overall RB1 upside, which I do think is there for him in this offense, for someone who didn't get an unproven QB or a completely new system this offseason. Someone where you to a greater extent know what you are getting. You don't win a league from the value you happen to find in the first round but it can pose problem if you completely whiff on it, is my experience. Especially drafting top half.

On the other hand, the Wilks/McCoy offense last year was absolutely horrendous, actually the worst graded in PFF history dating all the way back to 2006. Yes, worse than 2006 Tampa (second worst), worse than Jeff Fisher's Rams or any of the laughing stock Jags, Jets or Browns offenses of the last decade. DJ's situation with how they completely neglected what he is actually good (in his case, elite) at and kept running him into the middle without presenting any other threat to the defense whatsoever couldn't have been much worse really. And he still finished an RB1 in most leagues, albeit backend. If you look at it that way, hey maybe that is the safety you need right there. Comes down to if you believe in Kingsbury/Murray I guess.

I'm not there yet with the research needed to even have a June first round board in my head, so can't really give you any other options at 6 with much to back it up with though. On the top of my head Melvin Gordon and maybe James Conner feels more safe though, Le'Veon Bell doesn't. Also really hard to project this offense in numbers as mentioned. But I do believe he will be an absolute cornerstone in it and especially be used a lot more as a receiver than most people imagine. The difference in creativity between Kingsbury and Wilks/McCoy is absolute night and day.

 

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5 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

He’s as good of a pick at 6 as any.    Right there with Kamara CMAC for me. 

 

I'm taking Kamara or CMac over DJ all day long. Let someone else deal with a rookie QB and head coach. The Cards offense next season is a huge unknown.

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2 minutes ago, fingers said:

 

I'm taking Kamara or CMac over DJ all day long. Let someone else deal with a rookie QB and head coach. The Cards offense next season is a huge unknown.

 

Is Cam on track to play?

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25 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Is Cam on track to play?

 

Dont care, Cam stinks anyways 

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2 minutes ago, fingers said:

 

Dont care, Cam stinks anyways 

At football or at fantasy football? Cuss your wrong at both

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10 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

At football or at fantasy football? Cuss your wrong at both

 

Real football. I see him as middle of the pack QB with underwhelming accuracy. It's really besides the point. Im buying CMac's abilities over DJs. I think the kid is special 

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1 hour ago, fingers said:

 

I'm taking Kamara or CMac over DJ all day long. Let someone else deal with a rookie QB and head coach. The Cards offense next season is a huge unknown.

 

Right, but you are saying DJs QB is a detriment to him. Same applies to CmC.

Edited by dmb3684
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On 6/17/2019 at 7:09 AM, Impreza178 said:

He’s as good of a pick at 6 as any.    Right there with Kamara CMAC for me.    Too much unknown to say much more than he will be a focal point of what looks like a fantasy friendly offense.  Or could be a complete flop.   As long as they’re giving DJ the ball in multiple ways, I like our chances. 

 

At #6 give me Melvin Gordon over DJ.

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On 6/18/2019 at 5:18 AM, dmb3684 said:

Right, but you are saying DJs QB is a detriment to him. Same applies to CmC.

That's not a terrible comparison, bit to me it's not the same:

- CMC was Cam's #1 receiver in 2018, which worked out well. 

- DJ _could_ be one of the top receivers for Kyler, which would be great, but we don't know. Kyler has a good arm and it would make sense for him to stretch the field, especially given his receivers. I don't think he needs an RB as primary target.

So not a bad comparison, but not necessarily the same situation.

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6 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

That's not a terrible comparison, bit to me it's not the same:

- CMC was Cam's #1 receiver in 2018, which worked out well. 

- DJ _could_ be one of the top receivers for Kyler, which would be great, but we don't know. Kyler has a good arm and it would make sense for him to stretch the field, especially given his receivers. I don't think he needs an RB as primary target.

So not a bad comparison, but not necessarily the same situation.

 

Is Cam even playing?

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9 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Honest question,

 

What was the point you were making?  I got confused in this whole convo.

Dmb asked to fingers: if Cam was good for CMC, then why would Kyler Murray be bad for DJ?

I said it's not the same.

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2 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Dmb asked to fingers: if Cam was good for CMC, then why would Kyler Murray be bad for DJ?

I said it's not the same.

I see.

 

Well before CMC, Cam was actually among the worst in the league in completion percentage to RB's so I'd say CMC was better for Cam than Cam was for CMC.

 

CMC is just.. good.

 

That being said are we of the opinion that a rookie QB decides who the ball is thrown to or does the OC decide who the ball gets thrown to?  In the OJ Howard thread a lot of people seem to think the OC makes that decision 😂

Now we're saying in the David Johnson thread that Kyler Murray won't throw the ball to the RB as much even though KK's offensive system suggests otherwise.

 

Which is it people?!?!?

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2 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Which is it people?!?!?

I think a HC decides the strategy and the OC designs the offense. The play caller calls the play, and the QB follows the progressions, or at least as much as time allows him; and then he dumps off.

Cam's play last season might well be by design.

DJ's touches will be decided by the HC/OC, but also in practice a lot by Murray (and how much defenses can pressure him).

No?

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19 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I think a HC decides the strategy and the OC designs the offense. The play caller calls the play, and the QB follows the progressions, or at least as much as time allows him; and then he dumps off.

Cam's play last season might well be by design.

DJ's touches will be decided by the HC/OC, but also in practice a lot by Murray (and how much defenses can pressure him).

No?

And we should expect a pretty good amount of pressure.

 

Yes Kyler will run, but he should be dumping it off to DJ quite often.

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On 6/17/2019 at 9:23 AM, floppy said:

im drafting 6 so I came here to see some news about DJ because this is about the range. looks like a kingsbury thread in here. anyone got some pro's and con's or predictions going into this year with yes, a new coach, new qb, etc..

Yes, in fact the OP summed it up very well. 

I'll pass as there are too many unknowns and what we do know isn't pretty: still a bad OL, no known stud receivers to take pressure off etc. 

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On 6/17/2019 at 4:12 PM, fingers said:

 

I'm taking Kamara or CMac over DJ all day long. 

So will about 99% of fantasy owners. :)

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4 hours ago, Jags02 said:

I'm taking Mixon over DJ all day long.

 

Those are my two dudes this year.

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On 6/20/2019 at 5:29 PM, bomont said:
On 6/17/2019 at 4:12 PM, fingers said:

I'm taking Kamara or CMac over DJ all day long. 

So will about 99% of fantasy owners. :)

It shouldn't be 99%, but it is.

And last season, 99% of owners took Johnson over CMac.

Seems every season at the very top of the board are the sure-fire, can't miss RBs that are far superior to the Melvin Gordon's of the world, and about half the time it was better to have a late 1st round pick because the guys at the top disappoint.

Fact is, if I was in a redraft and someone took Johnson while Kamara and CMac were still on the board, I wouldn't even blink. They would be projecting 2019 instead of reminiscing about 2018.

If you take likely 2019 scenarios and rational points projections for these 3 in PPR, I'd say that CMac and Kamara come out on top, but it's a LOT closer than people seem to think.

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It's all a question of probabilities and weighing the various factors. Far from an exact science but all we have. 

Johnson has two disappointing years in a row and a team which is in total disarray with many many unknowns and issues.

Kamara and McCaffrey? Not so much. 

In December, we may be talking about how Johnson out-performed those two. 

But I doubt it. 

Edited by bomont

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