thebadferret

David Johnson 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, smeeze said:

This is gibberish. DJ is a top-5 RB in terms of talent and will get a top-5 workload. The question marks are the rookie QB and the rookie head coach’s ability to call a competent offense.

Hardly. My point flew right over your head and I'm not into repeating myself, so whatever. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, bomont said:

Hardly. My point flew right over your head and I'm not into repeating myself, so whatever. 

 

Nah dog. That sentence is staight up incoherent.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, bomont said:

It isn't just about what he can do, but how likely I think he is to do it. Whole truckloads of players can do great things, but what are the odds? That's largely what determines draft rank. 

 

So why can’t he do it ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

? I never said he can't. Or won't. One last time: I don't have enough confidence in him to produce highly enough to merit his (roughly) current expected cost. Obviously some do, that's fine, whatever.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, bomont said:

? I never said he can't. Or won't. One last time: I don't have enough confidence in him to produce highly enough to merit his (roughly) current expected cost. Obviously some do, that's fine, whatever.

 

 

One last time: why don’t you have enough confidence in him? Provide facts and evidence with your opinion, not just opinion. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Murray is what I feel can change things for DJ, that's biggest reason I am more confident in him this year. I don't doubt DJ, it was everything else last year that I feel held him back. I'd be willing to gamble on him this year in at least one of my leagues 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

33 minutes ago, HarambeLives said:

One last time: why don’t you have enough confidence in him? Provide facts and evidence with your opinion, not just opinion. 

I already did. 

 

5 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

Murray is what I feel can change things for DJ, that's biggest reason I am more confident in him this year. I don't doubt DJ, it was everything else last year that I feel held him back. I'd be willing to gamble on him this year in at least one of my leagues 

That may very well be true. Repeat: may be. Too many unknowns for my taste.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, bomont said:

 

I already did. 

 

That may very well be true. Repeat: may be. Too many unknowns for my taste.

 

 

Then just don’t draft him; no need to come in here and spit only opinion about it. A mobile QB can easily dump off, shovel pass, etc. Murray will lean on DJ one way or another. He had 2 freak injuries that’s all. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

lol

You're the one spitting young lad, not me. I just expressed my opinion about the guy. If you can't handle someone disagreeing with you without getting all pouty and snippy - and obviously you can't - maybe you should go elsewhere.

When did this place turn into a nursery?  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, HarambeLives said:

Then just don’t draft him; no need to come in here and spit only opinion about it. 

It's not as if you are a beacon of factoids yourself. Of course there is room for opinion here; yours is one, Bomont has another. Nothing wrong with that.

Besides, I think you need to read again what he wrote. Just because he isn't super high doesn't mean he's slagging off DJ. And even if he would, what's wrong with that? This is the DJ outlook thread, not the "DJ is a monster ohmygerd we all love him" thread.

There needs to be room for differing opinions. Including yours.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

It's not as if you are a beacon of factoids yourself. Of course there is room for opinion here; yours is one, Bomont has another. Nothing wrong with that.

Besides, I think you need to read again what he wrote. Just because he isn't super high doesn't mean he's slagging off DJ. And even if he would, what's wrong with that? This is the DJ outlook thread, not the "DJ is a monster ohmygerd we all love him" thread.

There needs to be room for differing opinions. Including yours.

 

I mean I really didn’t ask for yours on my post directly but I’ll drop some factoids for you. 

David Johnson 2018 

Arizona ran 56.4 plays per game (2nd fewest in the league) 

in 2016 DJ ran 35% of his routes being lined up as a WR in 2018 he ran 11.5% of them lined up out there. 

Literally AZ took his best attribute away from him and tried to just ground and pound away with him. Which clearly doesn’t work with his play style. & the guy pretty much sat out a whole year of real play. 

& a quote from Kingsbury himself 

“He’s a big back and when you split him out and put him in space like that he looks like a true receiver, so that’s a unique combination. You get a linebacker on him, you should feel comfortable he’s going to win that one.”

& with all of this the guy still finished 

RB10 Standard: RB9 PPR.

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m not very high on DJ if his price tag is RB5. Much rather roll the dice on someone like Mixon/Gurley/Chubb but would probably go WR if I am picking in the middle of the first round and the top-4 RBs are gone. Too many unknowns right now with Murray and Kingsbury. Although I agree that his play last season was very much due to inept playcalling people seem to forget he played the entire season making it “easier” to finish as a tier 1 RB. If you look at averages he was a mid-RB2 (PPR) instead of low-end RB1. Hard to not see him do better than last season but he is more RB9 than RB5 to me. There is also the fear that he was a product of Arians.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What will opposing defenses do when kingsbury runs 4 and 5 wide sets play after play?

 

Will they go nickel? Will they go dime?

6 DBs on the field? 1 safety? 

 

What, if anything, might this mean for the DL and LBers? 

 

Forgive me, I'm a bit of a novice. Will this be good or bad for David Johnson if the defense has 3 DL and 1 LBer on the field or 2 DL and 2 LBers? Cause that's basically what will happen a lot if opposing defenses have to run nickel and dime packages more often than not.

 

Maybe some more experience people can tell me how this could affect DJ's opportunities this year?

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

What will opposing defenses do when kingsbury runs 4 and 5 wide sets play after play?

 

Will they go nickel? Will they go dime?

6 DBs on the field? 1 safety? 

 

What, if anything, might this mean for the DL and LBers? 

 

Forgive me, I'm a bit of a novice. Will this be good or bad for David Johnson if the defense has 3 DL and 1 LBer on the field or 2 DL and 2 LBers? Cause that's basically what will happen a lot if opposing defenses have to run nickel and dime packages more often than not.

 

Maybe some more experience people can tell me how this could affect DJ's opportunities this year?

Well done sir.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

What will opposing defenses do when kingsbury runs 4 and 5 wide sets play after play?

I won't pretend to have any knowledge here, but my Googly skillz are 1337: 

https://matchquarters.com/2017/02/03/steal-coverage-to-combat-air-raid-offenses/

Quote

Conclusion

On passing downs, and 3rd Down, in particular, the defense must have a plan to defend the Air Raid offense and the multitude of crossing routes. One way to defend the concepts presented by the Air Raid offense is to use the boundary safety as a mid-field robber. Steal Coverage is designed to eliminate crossing route and bait the QB into throwing the ball into a bad situation. By double teaming the deep route to the field, the defense is forcing the QB to read the crossing route (where the DS should be cherry-picking). 

 

Edited by Boudewijn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

What will opposing defenses do when kingsbury runs 4 and 5 wide sets play after play?

 

Will they go nickel? Will they go dime?

6 DBs on the field? 1 safety? 

 

What, if anything, might this mean for the DL and LBers? 

 

Forgive me, I'm a bit of a novice. Will this be good or bad for David Johnson if the defense has 3 DL and 1 LBer on the field or 2 DL and 2 LBers? Cause that's basically what will happen a lot if opposing defenses have to run nickel and dime packages more often than not.

 

Maybe some more experience people can tell me how this could affect DJ's opportunities this year?

 

They will do exactly what teams did to run the Run and Shoot offense into oblivion.  Zone blitzes with constant pressure and hits on the QB. Constantly lining up 4 WRs gets your QB hit a LOT.  And the ARI OL is bottom-5 to begin with (possibly only bottom-10 if Gilbert stays healthy). 

But that should help DJ if he gets short passes on the edge against these blitzes.  With Fitz' decline last year, DJ is the best WR on that team.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

They will do exactly what teams did to run the Run and Shoot offense into oblivion.  Zone blitzes with constant pressure and hits on the QB. Constantly lining up 4 WRs gets your QB hit a LOT.  And the ARI OL is bottom-5 to begin with (possibly only bottom-10 if Gilbert stays healthy). 

But that should help DJ if he gets short passes on the edge against these blitzes.  With Fitz' decline last year, DJ is the best WR on that team.

 

I guess you would need a mobile QB to combat all that pressure or a RB to dump-off too...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I guess you would need a mobile QB to combat all that pressure or a RB to dump-off too...

 

Doesn't matter how mobile you are, you're still going to get hit a lot.  But the point of my response was that even if the 4 WR sets aren't new to the NFL, DJ should thrive. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There’s a few commonly mentioned risks for DJ this year that I think I have come around to accept are not major problems:

1) First year head coach/we haven’t seen Kingsbury implement his offense in the NFL

- I think it’s going to be a vast improvement over last year and really create space/opportunities for a guy like DJ

2) Rookie QB

- Hand in hand with issue #1, I really think Kyler is going to be fantastic for DJ

3) Poor OL

- I think it’s going to be improved enough and/or negated by Kingsbury’s offense/Kyler/DJ

4) We haven’t seen DJ produce at an elite level since 2016

- Product of injury (2017) and one of the worst offenses of the last 20 years (2018). Assuming points #1-3 above, DJ will produce. 

 

The concerns I haven’t seen discussed (maybe overlooked) and that I’m rolling over in my mind are:

1) His workhorse role

- It seems that it’s just accepted by default that DJ is going to be the workhorse/bellcow. I certainly see why based on talent. But how many times have coaches not utilized their players like we think they should? There’s very few coaches that use a workhorse RB these days. We know almost nothing about Kingsbury’s plans for his NFL offense. I’m not sure what his RB utilization was like in college (maybe someone can help with that). But even if he utilized his RBs a certain way in college, are we certain enough that he’s going to do the same in the NFL?

- I believe DJ will be efficient in this offense even with fewer touches. But he’s being drafted as a workhorse. Are we certain he will be? It’s probably nothing to worry about, but new/unknown situation creates risk.

2) Kyler getting injured

- Yes, almost any starting QB going down is going to hurt the starting RB. But I think Hundley replacing Kyler at QB would hurt DJ more than any other of the top RB/QB situations that I can think of.

- Yes, you can’t predict injuries. But you have to admit that a small dual-threat QB is at a fairly high risk of injury over the course of a season. I’m not going to project injuries for RBs (except the most injury prone of them), but when their QB is also at a relatively high risk of getting injured and the impact of that QB going down is big, I think it has to be factored in. 

I like DJ. I like him better than Bell and Conner at this point. But there were a lot of concerns about DJ last year, and I drafted him in spite of those concerns and got burned. So just doing my due diligence.

Edited by gufomel
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm just having a real hard time pulling the trigger on DJ for his #5/#6 overall cost.

I know it's an over-simplification....But he's turning 28 and has had one really good fantasy season.  Having a hard time buying a guy at that age who has only had one solid season.

Yeah, I know there are factors at work...bad team, injuries, bad coaching, whatever.  I don't like having my first round guys on bad teams.  

I like picking a guy at #5 that I feel good about and isn't surrounded with so many questions.  Basically, I avoided him everywhere because of questions last year and was glad I did.  And for me many questions still remain.  

After the top 4 RB's, I'm probably going WR in every draft so I highly doubt I have DJ on any of my teams unless he falls to me in the second round.  I'd rather just grab a stud WR then grab Gurley, Chubb, Conner or somebody else that falls to me in the second.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, tts42572 said:

I'm just having a real hard time pulling the trigger on DJ for his #5/#6 overall cost.

I know it's an over-simplification....But he's turning 28 and has had one really good fantasy season.  Having a hard time buying a guy at that age who has only had one solid season.

Yeah, I know there are factors at work...bad team, injuries, bad coaching, whatever.  I don't like having my first round guys on bad teams.  

I like picking a guy at #5 that I feel good about and isn't surrounded with so many questions.  Basically, I avoided him everywhere because of questions last year and was glad I did.  And for me many questions still remain.  

After the top 4 RB's, I'm probably going WR in every draft so I highly doubt I have DJ on any of my teams unless he falls to me in the second round.  I'd rather just grab a stud WR then grab Gurley, Chubb, Conner or somebody else that falls to me in the second.

 

In a 12 team league, at pick 20 there is probably close to no chance that Chubb, Conner, or Gurley make it back to 20th pick in the 2nd. Not to mention, Gurley is easily more of a question mark than DJ at this point.  Overall point is, guys like Conner and Chubb are most likely not going to be there to pair with that WR you take in round 1, but there will certainly be a nice WR left to pair with DJ. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, SportsBrain said:

 

In a 12 team league, at pick 20 there is probably close to no chance that Chubb, Conner, or Gurley make it back to 20th pick in the 2nd. Not to mention, Gurley is easily more of a question mark than DJ at this point.  Overall point is, guys like Conner and Chubb are most likely not going to be there to pair with that WR you take in round 1, but there will certainly be a nice WR left to pair with DJ. 

I think this is spot on. Maybe I’m just forgetting, but this seems like a really odd year to me. Solely for roster construction purposes, I find myself taking RBs in the 1st round that I really just don’t care for because I’m really not going to like the RBs left in the 2nd but there will be numerous WRs I like. 

Edited by gufomel

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, gufomel said:

I think this is spot on. Maybe I’m just forgetting, but this seems like a really odd year to me. Solely for roster construction purposes, I find myself taking RBs in the 1st round that I really just don’t care for because I’m really not going to like the RBs left in the 2nd but there will be numerous WRs I like. 

 

For me in the mocks I'm running it kinda depends on the size of the league.

In 10 team mocks, I'm finding I'm happy going WR at #5 as somebody generally seems to fall to that second pick....I've had many cases where Gurley or Chubb are there. 

I'd agree in 12/14 team leagues it might change a bit.  There I'd probably think harder about Johnson if I were picking 5th.  My main league is a 14 team auction though and betting there's no way I'll be spending on DJ.  And my other leagues are 10 teamers.  

Either way, I'm just not very high on him....too many uncertainties for my liking.

Basically, I'm not expecting to have much of DJ or L Bell on any of my teams for similar reasons.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, tts42572 said:

I'm just having a real hard time pulling the trigger on DJ for his #5/#6 overall cost.

I know it's an over-simplification....But he's turning 28 and has had one really good fantasy season.  Having a hard time buying a guy at that age who has only had one solid season.

Yeah, I know there are factors at work...bad team, injuries, bad coaching, whatever.  I don't like having my first round guys on bad teams.  

I like picking a guy at #5 that I feel good about and isn't surrounded with so many questions.  Basically, I avoided him everywhere because of questions last year and was glad I did.  And for me many questions still remain.  

After the top 4 RB's, I'm probably going WR in every draft so I highly doubt I have DJ on any of my teams unless he falls to me in the second round.  I'd rather just grab a stud WR then grab Gurley, Chubb, Conner or somebody else that falls to me in the second.

After the first 4 RBs every RB has significant question marks

Conner - Hasn't put together one full healthy season

Chubb - Hunt returns during the most crucial time of the season

Mixon - Similar concerns to DJ

Gordon- High mileage and injury risk

Bell - On a terrible team. Never seen him succeed outside of one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Gurley - Huge injury risk

Cook - Huge injury risk

 

The list goes on. I'd hate to be the 5th-7th pick this year. I'd be willing to take a gamble on most of those guys pick 8 and on but from 5-7 I feel like you are almost forced to take a WR.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.