thebadferret

David Johnson 2019 Outlook

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2 hours ago, Yanksfan06 said:

Dj had more rushing yards last year alone, yes in last years bleh season, than James White has in his entire career.  

 

Also DJ still managed to almost hit  1,000 yards rushing despite a historically bad offense that was always playing from behind and a coaching regime that was god awful.  No where to go but up really. 

Last season wasn’t that bad, still top 10.  It was just disappointing because his adp was top 5.  You don’t think there’s a chance that the cardinals will be playing from behind in a lot of their games this year?  I can see games where it’s dependent on pass catching and the run is abandoned.  The cardinals as a team still have bottom tier talent.  I don’t see it being that easy.  Kingsbury will be very pass happy as well no matter what.  

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I know it's preseason, but last night the starting Arizona offense had only 12 yards and two first downs during four drives. Are we potentially getting a little ahead of ourselves assuming this offense is going to be a big improvement over last year? Just because we say, "well, things can't be worse than last year", I don't think we can simply use that argument without any proof to just shoot DJ back up to the top of our draft boards. I need to see it first. And until then, I'm a little nervous spending a premium top 5 pick on him.

 

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4 minutes ago, GoPackGo23 said:

I know it's preseason, but last night the starting Arizona offense had only 12 yards and two first downs during four drives. Are we potentially getting a little ahead of ourselves assuming this offense is going to be a big improvement over last year? Just because we say, "well, things can't be worse than last year", I don't think we can simply use that argument without any proof to just shoot DJ back up to the top of our draft boards. I need to see it first. And until then, I'm a little nervous spending a premium top 5 pick on him.

 

DJ will end the season within the top 10, like last year, because it can't be worse than last year. but if you're nervous at the 1.05, davante adams and nuk seem as solid as solid can be.

then the 2.08, you might (might) get either gurley, chubb, kelce, mixon, cook, or reach for kerryon. second round has been all over the place.

the 3.05 seems like a good spot to nab josh jacobs.

i don't see drafting DJ unless i'm more towards the 1.08-1.12 spot, but i'm keeping my eyes open for a DJ bargain in auction (anything less than $50).

and although the cardinals looked junior varsity last night, i'm still a believer that we'll see DJ lining up in the slot and exploited for his receiving skills, even with all the WR talent on the roster.

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6 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

DJ will end the season within the top 10, like last year, because it can't be worse than last year

Do me a favor, and insert your own "I don't believe you" gif here.

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2 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Do me a favor, and insert your own "I don't believe you" gif here.

They were dead last in yards per game/passing yards per game/rush yards per game/return yards per game/points per game in 2018

 

....By a pretty large margin in EVERY category. Can they get worse? sure, but im not going to take the preseason as the standard. People freak out one way or another on preseason games. Arizona is going to be dead last and Oakland is going to be superbowl champs

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51 minutes ago, GoPackGo23 said:

I know it's preseason, but last night the starting Arizona offense had only 12 yards and two first downs during four drives. Are we potentially getting a little ahead of ourselves assuming this offense is going to be a big improvement over last year? Just because we say, "well, things can't be worse than last year", I don't think we can simply use that argument without any proof to just shoot DJ back up to the top of our draft boards. I need to see it first. And until then, I'm a little nervous spending a premium top 5 pick on him.

 

 

Wait to see the 3rd preseason game.  New offense, new QB...things don't always go smoothly.  Yes it was 4 drives, but offenses can go for much longer stretches of being ineffective.  Last year the Rams and Pats had two of the best offenses, and look what happened during the Superbowl.  

Jury is still out for me.  It did look like the backups were moving the ball decently with the same offensive scheme, so I'm not totally sold that it was the playcalling that was poor.  They clearly need to work on blitz protection in the air raid scheme.  Who knows, maybe Kyler wasn't recognizing the blitz and didn't audible when he needed to.  Lots of things could have gone wrong.

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42 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

DJ will end the season within the top 10, like last year, because it can't be worse than last year. but if you're nervous at the 1.05, davante adams and nuk seem as solid as solid can be.

then the 2.08, you might (might) get either gurley, chubb, kelce, mixon, cook, or reach for kerryon. second round has been all over the place.

the 3.05 seems like a good spot to nab josh jacobs.

i don't see drafting DJ unless i'm more towards the 1.08-1.12 spot, but i'm keeping my eyes open for a DJ bargain in auction (anything less than $50).

and although the cardinals looked junior varsity last night, i'm still a believer that we'll see DJ lining up in the slot and exploited for his receiving skills, even with all the WR talent on the roster.

 

What concerns me with DJ is the defense. I know its the preseason, but the defense has looked atrocious. Even if we only say "its the preseason", it's hard to look past the fact that Peterson will be out for six games and now their other starting CB will be out for a "significant" amount of time. Maybe this opens up things for the offense, since they will need to outscore opponents. However, the con about that is DJ becomes a one dimensional back living off of dump-offs and screens and if Murray is running a ton, that will take even more from his production. Add the fact the offensive line was terrible. Again "it's only preseason", but the offensive line was terrible last year too. 

There are some warning signs that would make me go WR at 1.05. At the end of the day, with all of these question marks, there are backs in rounds 2 and 3 that have a legit chance of outproducing DJ. 

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59 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

What concerns me with DJ is the defense. I know its the preseason, but the defense has looked atrocious. Even if we only say "its the preseason", it's hard to look past the fact that Peterson will be out for six games and now their other starting CB will be out for a "significant" amount of time. Maybe this opens up things for the offense, since they will need to outscore opponents. However, the con about that is DJ becomes a one dimensional back living off of dump-offs and screens and if Murray is running a ton, that will take even more from his production. Add the fact the offensive line was terrible. Again "it's only preseason", but the offensive line was terrible last year too. 

There are some warning signs that would make me go WR at 1.05. At the end of the day, with all of these question marks, there are backs in rounds 2 and 3 that have a legit chance of outproducing DJ. 

 

i disagree 100% in labeling what exists in arizona as a "defense."

other than that, i agree with everything you posted.

and i'd add that, the addition of jordan hicks at inside LB looks good on paper, but hicks is one soft-tissue tear away from a lengthy stay on IR and terrell suggs at 36 is eating early bird dinners at 4pm with the phoenix retirees.

i love DJ as an RB, but i've bypassed him in every draft so far. i still hope to land him in upcoming drafts, but only at 1.08-1.12 (or under $50 in auction). what worries me is, although it seems logical to put DJ in the slot, to use DJ as a receiver for all of the games where arizona is playing from behind (i.e. all of their games?), kingsbury and his air raid are not know for utilizing RBs this way. the counterpoint is, kingsbury has never had an RB like DJ, but the variables here---including great talent / depth at WR----have me tempering expectations: RB8-10 at season's end.

regarding your last point, RBs in rounds 2-3 with a legit chance of outproducing DJ, i don't know about round 3, especially now that kerryon has moved into late round 2 (2.10 in half-PPR today). certainly a healthy fournette or healthy devonta freeman could land in the RB5-6 range, but health is a wildcard with these two. i'd sooner bet on a healthy chris carson and his round 4 ADP overtaking DJ at season's end. my two cents.

week 1 the lions travel to phoenix to take on the air raid offense and carpet-bombed "defense." am i crazy to suggest kerryon johnson is the daily fantasy lock-of-the-week?

in re-reading the DJ thread from last year, consensus had it that taking DJ at 1.01 was feasible, chiefly because we were looking clips from a healthy DJ and his 2016 season... man, he looked unstoppable, but while i believe in his talent (still!) i have to knock DJ down a notch or three until i understand how he fits into kingsbury's plan.

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19 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

i disagree 100% in labeling what exists in arizona as a "defense."

giphy.gif

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I've said the preseason doesn't matter but after watching yesterdays game and owning DJ last year it gave me some serious flashbacks. 

I'd hate to be 5th pick. I honestly thought DJ would be going in the 12-15 range after last season. I don't see what made him skyrocket so high. They got a new coach with a good amount of questions and a QB that also has questions. It's not like his situation went from bad to great. It went from bad to unknown. 

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By the way, i've seen people say DJ finished top 10 so how can it be worse? Those people clearly did not own him last year. Yes, he finished top 10 but that's because he played every game and missed zero time. He only had 4 games all year with over 100 yards from scrimmage. Dude put up a Lamar Miller like year. Not once did he do anything to make you feel like it was worth drafting him and most of the time you had to look at 7-12 points.

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5 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

By the way, i've seen people say DJ finished top 10 so how can it be worse? Those people clearly did not own him last year. Yes, he finished top 10 but that's because he played every game and missed zero time. He only had 4 games all year with over 100 yards from scrimmage. Dude put up a Lamar Miller like year. Not once did he do anything to make you feel like it was worth drafting him and most of the time you had to look at 7-12 points.

Youre mad he didn’t have a gigantic few games but instead gave you a consistent 10ish points a game? He absolutely didn’t kill your season. If your team tanked it definitely wasn’t because of DJ. And why is not missing a game a bad thing? That Arizona offense last year was atrocious.

Edited by bhawks489

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22 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I've said the preseason doesn't matter but after watching yesterdays game and owning DJ last year it gave me some serious flashbacks. 

I'd hate to be 5th pick. I honestly thought DJ would be going in the 12-15 range after last season. I don't see what made him skyrocket so high. They got a new coach with a good amount of questions and a QB that also has questions. It's not like his situation went from bad to great. It went from bad to unknown. 

 

I think what made him skyrocket is the projected bump in volume by going uptempo all game.  They are predicting like 20-30% more plays than last year.  Remains to be seen if that happens of course, but they are going to try.  Also, going from bad to unknown is better than keeping the same offense.  The odds of them being even worse than last year are slim, given how bad they were.

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3 hours ago, Sack Exchange said:

DJ will end the season within the top 10, like last year, because it can't be worse than last year.

Last year:  bad OL, rookie QB, weak receivers

This year:  bad OL, rookie QB, weak receivers

Sure it can.  :)

I doubt it will be, but even if just comparably bad, whether slightly better or not, it would make him a guy I'd rather pass on. People can talk all about flashy new QB, new coach and new plans, but that's an awful lot of unknowns and speculation to pin on a RB1.

 

Quote

all the WR talent on the roster. 

? Fitz is one of the all-timers but well past his prime, Kirk shows promise but far from proven, no TE worth a flip (a long-standing Cardinal tradition)....i.e. this is more hopeful thinking. Which may pan out don't get me wrong, and I get he had all this against him and still was top 10, but I'm aiming for more than just top 10 with my RB1.

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1 hour ago, bhawks489 said:

Youre mad he didn’t have a gigantic few games but instead gave you a consistent 10ish points a game? He absolutely didn’t kill your season. If your team tanked it definitely wasn’t because of DJ. And why is not missing a game a bad thing? That Arizona offense last year was atrocious.

First off, i'm not mad. Second off, I did quite well in the league I had him in and one pick can't tank your season. Third off, not missing a game is a good thing but my point is there were more than 10 RBs that were better to own last season. Mack and Carson are examples. 

I like DJ. I've been one of his biggest supporters since his second year and owned him when he broke his wrist in both of my leagues and in one league last year. I still don't hold it against him. It's just hard to justify taking him over Adams and Hopkins. I'd take him every day of the week in something like the 9th or 10th slot. It's just crazy how everyone thinks it's all great when there's a lot more questions than people seem to think.

1 hour ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

I think what made him skyrocket is the projected bump in volume by going uptempo all game.  They are predicting like 20-30% more plays than last year.  Remains to be seen if that happens of course, but they are going to try.  Also, going from bad to unknown is better than keeping the same offense.  The odds of them being even worse than last year are slim, given how bad they were.

Going uptempo doesn't matter if you aren't getting first downs often enough. 

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4 hours ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Wait to see the 3rd preseason game.  New offense, new QB...things don't always go smoothly.  Yes it was 4 drives, but offenses can go for much longer stretches of being ineffective.  Last year the Rams and Pats had two of the best offenses, and look what happened during the Superbowl.  

Jury is still out for me.  It did look like the backups were moving the ball decently with the same offensive scheme, so I'm not totally sold that it was the playcalling that was poor.  They clearly need to work on blitz protection in the air raid scheme.  Who knows, maybe Kyler wasn't recognizing the blitz and didn't audible when he needed to.  Lots of things could have gone wrong.

 

I would throw out everything you see in preseason.  This is a new coach and entirely new scheme where no one knows exactly what to expect.  Cards are not going to put anything on film for opposing coaches.  They will be mostly running plays that won't be in any regular season game plan.  

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Forget about the abysmal defense cause he could still catch 80+, my concern is how unexplosive he looks. No burst, no speed, no power. Much different than his breakout year. 

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2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

By the way, i've seen people say DJ finished top 10 so how can it be worse? Those people clearly did not own him last year. Yes, he finished top 10 but that's because he played every game and missed zero time. He only had 4 games all year with over 100 yards from scrimmage. Dude put up a Lamar Miller like year. Not once did he do anything to make you feel like it was worth drafting him and most of the time you had to look at 7-12 points.

So much this.

 

signed every DJ owner last season

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Yeah I’m out.  This team is garbage.  Murray is a midget that was over drafted.  Kingsbury probably isn’t qualified to be in the nfl.  Their offensive line and receivers are trash.  The stud receivers are a safer pick.

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9 minutes ago, Rickydragon said:

Yeah I’m out.  This team is garbage.  Murray is a midget that was over drafted.  Kingsbury probably isn’t qualified to be in the nfl.  Their offensive line and receivers are trash.  The stud receivers are a safer pick.

This reaction may be the correct one, but I think it's a bit premature after 2 preseason games. I'd like to wait at least through all 4.

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7 minutes ago, SuperJoint said:

This reaction may be the correct one, but I think it's a bit premature after 2 preseason games. I'd like to wait at least through all 4.

I'm drafting this weekend, so I think I'm sliding DJ down to the bottom of the first. If he slips to me at 7 I am likely going to pass on him...the RBs in the second round seem just fine so I'll just grab a stud WR instead of him and let someone else use the high pick on DJ this year.

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On 8/14/2019 at 9:57 AM, Ryansm11 said:

Unpopular opinion: I’d rather have Nick Chubb 

I think Chubb could be a top 5 fantasy back this year, and DJ doesn't exactly have the greatest supporting cast this year.

 

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51 minutes ago, SuperJoint said:

This reaction may be the correct one, but I think it's a bit premature after 2 preseason games. I'd like to wait at least through all 4.

I felt the same before the games.  He has the worst supporting cast in the league.  They brought in a rookie coach with a rookie qb.  It’s gonna be amateur hour this year. 

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