thebadferret

David Johnson 2019 Outlook

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On 5/30/2019 at 2:52 PM, jmausen said:

Did he [David Johnson] get a new long term contract last year? Yep. Does he have Bruce Arians, a decent healthy o-line, and a defense that can get him good field position? Not so much. Dreams and Dwightmares hit the nail on the head. KK should be an offensive coordinator. That's all he is qualified for.

His defense sucks, and he will have to spend a lot of time focused on his defense. His offensive line also sucks, which is bad for everyone. He doesn't have an offensive coordinator to work with the offense when, just like every year as a failed college coach, his defense sucks and he has to do something about that too. Good fantasy RBs have good defenses, good field position, lots of TDs, and control the game clock in the second half. DJ has NONE OF THAT!!!!!

 

Johnson is definitely a key guy in their locker room & I think the type of player a new coach would lean on. With Kingsbury though, seems there'll be a lot of spread/gun formation & empty set looks... DJ should get the targets Brian is looking for, but the ball-carrier production, I don't know. He's a big back, a long-strider, cut high. The elusiveness, the explosiveness, I never got that part. A decent jump cut, the receiving skills & long speed, yeah. I watched the highlights of several Texas Tech games (12-15 plays) & right away you see them in gun formation. Since the QB is already back there, the RB is often lined up along side of him. Ball is snapped & the last guy off is the ball-carrier. It's just me, but it seems the RBs best equipped to make that play go are the ones that possess a quick-twitch suddenness to exploit.              

Edited by markrc99

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1 hour ago, markrc99 said:

He's a big back, a long-strider, cut high. The elusiveness, the explosiveness, I never got that part. A decent jump cut, the receiving skills & long speed, yeah. I watched the highlights of several Texas Tech games (12-15 plays) & right away you see them in gun formation. Since the QB is already back there, the RB is often lined up along side of him. Ball is snapped & the last guy off is the ball-carrier. It's just me, but it seems the RBs best equipped to make that play go are the ones that possess a quick-twitch suddenness to exploit.              

 

DJ is a top tier athlete 91st percentile in speed score 96th percentile in burst score and 83rd percentile in agility score. He is about as agile and explosive as anyone in the league not named saquon Barkley. 

He did only have a broken tackle% of 14% but that may be effected by the fact he was hit behind the line of scrimmage about as much as anyone in the league due to the worst oline in the league. However maybe we do over value his ability to make ppl miss. But his athleticism and explosiveness shouldnt really be doubted. 

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I just don't see DJ being anything close to a workhorse RB in a spread shotgun system. I'm not saying he'll do nothing, but I'm not taking him at his ADP.

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2 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

"DJ is a top tier athlete 91st percentile in speed score 96th percentile in burst score and 83rd percentile in agility score. He is about as agile and explosive as anyone in the league not named saquon Barkley. He did only have a broken tackle% of 14% but that may be effected by the fact he was hit behind the line of scrimmage about as much as anyone in the league due to the worst oline in the league. However maybe we do over value his ability to make ppl miss. But his athleticism and explosiveness shouldnt really be doubted." 

 

Oh my, a lone exception... could you, you know, show me?

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5 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

 

Oh my, a lone exception... could you, you know, show me?

 

Hmm sarcasm seems pretty thick here. 

Do you... want the link, the link with all his advanced metrics listing him as a superior athlete in every measured athletic category? 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/david-johnson/

How am I the lone exception I dont think anyone, but you, has ever said that DJ isnt agile or explosive.

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12 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

"Hmm sarcasm seems pretty thick here. Do you... want the link, the link with all his advanced metrics listing him as a superior athlete in every measured athletic category? https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/david-johnson/ How am I the lone exception I dont think anyone, but you, has ever said that DJ isnt agile or explosive."

 

I bolded the part of your comment I took exception to, where Barkley is the only player more agile & explosive. Your assertion is that his workout "metrics" translate to his on-field ability, and they may. But rather than metrics or stats, I like seeing a player's ability for myself. However, your source does provide some interesting information. Just over 77% of Johnson's carries were with the QB under center & only 22% with him in gun formation. I think would be owners should expect those figures to change dramatically. Again, I think that'll help him as a receiver, but less so as a ball-carrier. Could be wrong, but to me he's more so a 'back you set deep & ramp up.

Further, there's additional data that suggests he's largely a system guy. His rankings for evaded tackles, juke rate & yards created on his own are all very pedestrian. We can agree those are subjective & take into account the number of times he faced a heavy front &/or had poor blocking. But to me, it isn't a coincidence that Johnson was very productive when Arians was the coach & part of a very balanced offense! With respect to Kingsbury, I think the organization's determination to move on from Rosen, hire KK & to draft Kyler Murray wasn't a series of independent decisions. Kingsbury wasn't brought in to straighten out the defense, his longevity is directly linked to the development of Kyler Murray.               

 

Edited by markrc99
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Hi I just checked the stats and this David Johnson guy clearly sucks I don’t watch football and never checked his oline or supporting cast’s stats, but can say for certain DJ was a one year wonder akin to Peyton hillis 

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10 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

"Lol people really questioning this guys explosiveness and tackles breaking capabilities?" 

 Lol... that's quite an image you have there, big enough for anyone to see, with reality standing out like a sore thumb! That defender coming in about as high as he can, reaching around the shoulders... the numbers sourced didn't provide the evidence & what you have there is a $h!++y attempt at tackling. Please do, go on about proper technique & show me anything, from anywhere suggesting that grabbing around the shoulders is how it's done!! Oh my, you don't have that? Shocked, truly... 

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2 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

I bolded the part of your comment I took exception to, where Barkley is the only player more agile & explosive. Your assertion is that his workout "metrics" translate to his on-field ability, and they may. But rather than metrics or stats, I like seeing a player's ability for myself. However, your source does provide some interesting information. Just over 77% of Johnson's carries were with the QB under center & only 22% with him in gun formation. I think would be owners should expect those figures to change dramatically. Again, I think that'll help him as a receiver, but less so as a ball-carrier. Could be wrong, but to me he's more so a 'back you set deep & ramp up.

Further, there's additional data that suggests he's largely a system guy. His rankings for evaded tackles, juke rate & yards created on his own are all very pedestrian. We can agree those are subjective & take into account the number of times he faced a heavy front &/or had poor blocking. But to me, it isn't a coincidence that Johnson was very productive when Arians was the coach & part of a very balanced offense! With respect to Kingsbury, I think the organization's determination to move on from Rosen, hire KK & to draft Kyler Murray wasn't a series of independent decisions. Kingsbury wasn't brought in to straighten out the defense, his longevity is directly linked to the development of Kyler Murray.               

 

 

Well I agreed with you that his elusiveness may not be up to par with only a 14% broken tackle rate but that could be due to the a rookie qb and the worst oline in the nfl and being hit behind the line as much as any player in the league.

But it sounds like your argument for him not being explosive or athletic or agile is "he just doesnt look like it" which isnt a good argument

That picture is above is supposed to be a video maybe it didnt work for you, for some reason I couldnt get it to work. But go YouTube and watch it. It shows how many amazing tackles he breaks and how he is fast enough to get the edge and outrun defenses and explode thru the hole. Granted it's mostly highlights from when he was with arians so him being a system guy is a valid argument. But arians was the OC at plenty of places and he never once had a RB come close to the to DJs performance in his sophomore season. It may have been a good system but it's because DJ is also truly special that made it such a remarkable season.

I doubt many RBS in the league last year could of had performed as well as DJ with that terrible team last year. He deserves all the credit in the world his 940 yards. 

I dont think DJ will ever revert back to his sophomore season. I dont believe KK will use him properly for that and by the time they get a new coach DJ will already be on the down hill of his career. Poor guy should ask gmfor a trade ... to tampa.

 

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2 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

I bolded the part of your comment I took exception to, where Barkley is the only player more agile & explosive. Your assertion is that his workout "metrics" translate to his on-field ability, and they may. But rather than metrics or stats, I like seeing a player's ability for myself. However, your source does provide some interesting information. Just over 77% of Johnson's carries were with the QB under center & only 22% with him in gun formation. I think would be owners should expect those figures to change dramatically. Again, I think that'll help him as a receiver, but less so as a ball-carrier. Could be wrong, but to me he's more so a 'back you set deep & ramp up.

Further, there's additional data that suggests he's largely a system guy. His rankings for evaded tackles, juke rate & yards created on his own are all very pedestrian. We can agree those are subjective & take into account the number of times he faced a heavy front &/or had poor blocking. But to me, it isn't a coincidence that Johnson was very productive when Arians was the coach & part of a very balanced offense! With respect to Kingsbury, I think the organization's determination to move on from Rosen, hire KK & to draft Kyler Murray wasn't a series of independent decisions. Kingsbury wasn't brought in to straighten out the defense, his longevity is directly linked to the development of Kyler Murray.               

 

 

All of those metrics are meaningless. Just watch DJ play football, he is great at it.

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2 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 Lol... that's quite an image you have there, big enough for anyone to see, with reality standing out like a sore thumb! That defender coming in about as high as he can, reaching around the shoulders... the numbers sourced didn't provide the evidence & what you have there is a $h!++y attempt at tackling. Please do, go on about proper technique & show me anything, from anywhere suggesting that grabbing around the shoulders is how it's done!! Oh my, you don't have that? Shocked, truly... 

Am I supposed to know what’s going on with this post or is it like some inside joke or something

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52 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

"Am I supposed to know what’s going on with this post or is it like some inside joke or something"

 

My point was pretty simple to follow, the profile data proved nothing & neither does the featured image of your video. Nor is the 1st play of the video all that impressive. That catch & run to end the game was week 1 of the 2016 season. By the time he's on the field again, that play & everything in that video will have been something he did 3 years ago & he's how old now? I mean, what would epitomize reaching back to prove a point, 5 seasons? 10 perhaps? He shows that he has good straight line speed, but little else is going on there that I would attribute to him. It's important to break the play down so that we understand what we're really looking at. 

It's the end of the game, the Saints only have one timeout left. The moment Johnson converts to gain a 1st down, the game is over. He's gets so wide open because of one or two things. The MLB who is assigned to cover him bites on the jet sweep, even though he's not responsible for contain on that play. He puts HIMSELF in a trail position here, which isn't even an adequate depiction. The fact of the matter is that his coverage is blown! Or, we can credit good play design or some combination of both. Either way, Johnson's ability as a route runner has nothing to do with why he's so open on this play.     

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50 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

 

My point was pretty simple to follow, the profile data proved nothing & neither does the featured image of your video. Nor is the 1st play of the video all that impressive. That catch & run to end the game was week 1 of the 2016 season. By the time he's on the field again, that play & everything in that video will have been something he did 3 years ago & he's how old now? I mean, what would epitomize reaching back to prove a point, 5 seasons? 10 perhaps? He shows that he has good straight line speed, but little else is going on there that I would attribute to him. It's important to break the play down so that we understand what we're really looking at. 

It's the end of the game, the Saints only have one timeout left. The moment Johnson converts to gain a 1st down, the game is over. He's gets so wide open because of one or two things. The MLB who is assigned to cover him bites on the jet sweep, even though he's not responsible for contain on that play. He puts HIMSELF in a trail position here, which isn't even an adequate depiction. The fact of the matter is that his coverage is blown! Or, we can credit good play design or some combination of both. Either way, Johnson's ability as a route runner has nothing to do with why he's so open on this play.     

I know that’s right 

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5 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

"... it sounds like your argument for him not being explosive or athletic or agile is "he just doesnt look like it" which isnt a good argument. Granted [in the posted video] it's mostly highlights from when he was with Arians so him being a system guy is a valid argument.... It may have been a good system but it's because DJ is also truly special that made it such a remarkable season. ... I dont think DJ will ever revert back to his sophomore season. I dont believe KK will use him properly for that and by the time they get a new coach DJ will already be on the down hill of his career." 

 

I like him, he's a good football player & should be a key guy for them. But for me, that elite NFL level suddenness or elusiveness, he's not in that group. I just checked at nfl.com & they have him ranked 10th, a late 1st RD pick, which is way too high. They have Le'Veon Bell slotted 7th, which is absurd. These two were in great situations and now they're not! That matters!  

Edited by markrc99
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17 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

I like him, he's a good football player & should be a key guy for them. But for me, that elite NFL level suddenness or elusiveness, he's not in that group. I just checked at nfl.com & they have him ranked 10th, a late 1st RD pick, which is way too high. They have Le'Veon Bell slotted 7th, which is absurd. These two were in great situations and now they're not! That matters!  

 

Bell > DJ easily

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3 hours ago, Sack Exchange said:

i'd wager you don't watch the jets often...

jetsshrug.gif

 

 

I've watched Bell. I've also watched the kind of college spread systems the Cards are planning to run.

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@markrc99 hard to be elusive when your coach calls more runs up the gut than any other team while your line isn’t doing you any favors letting defenders hit you in the backfield. 

 

Add in a rookie QB who doesn’t use his legs and that’s a recipe for disaster. 

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Rookie qb

Worst oline in the league

Awful OC who is fired after a few weeks

2nd OC is first time play caller and first time OC byron leftwich  

Poor DJ was lucky to do as good as he did in 2018.

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Kingsbury has targeted his RB's the 6th most in the nation since 2014.

 

Anyone worried about Johnson isn't focusing on the right details.  The air-raid offense also helps give him more running room instead of running him up the middle every play.

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On 6/2/2019 at 10:05 AM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Well crap,

I hate having to admit it but because Kyler can run it will cause him to check down to DJ less than a statue QB would do. 

 

 

Christian McCaffey doesn't seem to have a problem catching passes with a running QB.

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19 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Christian McCaffey doesn't seem to have a problem catching passes with a running QB.

 

CMCs main function of being drafted so high was to be an extension of cams legs. They wanted to reduce the big hits he was taking and give Cam a quick hitter high percentage completion option. 

 

Regardless of injuries, I'm not sure if there's been a more dangerous player in the last 5 years from the 2 yard line than Cam Newton tho, so they'll never probably reduce his run rate to someone like Phillip Rivers. 

 

Speaking of Cam though, and I've seen this from several "running QBs" early in their careers. They're not always dumping off to RB's as first option. Lot of times they're looking down field for bigger chunk plays or just taking off themselves. 

 

I feel like everyone in this thread is talking like DJ is a threat for 1k rushing and receiving and I'm just having a hard time getting there. I do expect more receptions than last year though. 

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