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Patrick Mahomes 2019 Outlook

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On 8/30/2019 at 12:08 PM, montgrove said:

I had this dude in every league last year. I have the first pick overall in a 10 team superflex league.

so tempted to grab him.

anyone take him high like that and how did your teams turn out?

 

I'm in a weird 8 teamer that starts 2 QB's and has ridiculous passing bonuses.  Getting at least one QB in your first two picks is imperative in this league, and my strategy is usually QB/QB.  I took Mahomes first overall.  

I think taking Mahomes with a top pick is justified in 2QB or superflex leagues, but be prepared for the top-tier wr's and rb's to be off the board when your 2/3 turn comes around.  I was successful in filling those spots with high-floor value picks, but that would have obviously been more difficult to accomplish in a 10 team.  

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9 hours ago, Honolulu Blue Balls said:

 

I'm in a weird 8 teamer that starts 2 QB's and has ridiculous passing bonuses.  Getting at least one QB in your first two picks is imperative in this league, and my strategy is usually QB/QB.  I took Mahomes first overall.  

I think taking Mahomes with a top pick is justified in 2QB or superflex leagues, but be prepared for the top-tier wr's and rb's to be off the board when your 2/3 turn comes around.  I was successful in filling those spots with high-floor value picks, but that would have obviously been more difficult to accomplish in a 10 team.  

 

I've found that the opposite happens. You go Mahomes with 1, and everyone gets nervous and starts plucking QB', leaving great value left over at the 24/25 turn.

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People are taking Mahomes in the first 3 rounds in standard leagues...it baffles me.

I saw someone take him 14th overall. That is just nonsense.

In leagues where you start 1 QB, with standard scoring, there is just no reason to draft a QB early. They are simply not rare and you can find a decent one any week. Good RB's and WR's on the other hand...you have to start 5-6 of them and they are not many great ones going around. 

I got Lamar Jackson in Round 13 in a 12 team league. Are you telling me that Mahomes is worth selecting 10+ rounds before someone like Lamar?

Let someone else waste an early pick on Mahomes if that's what they want to do. 

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13 minutes ago, mbell317 said:

People are taking Mahomes in the first 3 rounds in standard leagues...it baffles me.

I saw someone take him 14th overall. That is just nonsense.

In leagues where you start 1 QB, with standard scoring, there is just no reason to draft a QB early. They are simply not rare and you can find a decent one any week. Good RB's and WR's on the other hand...you have to start 5-6 of them and they are not many great ones going around. 

I got Lamar Jackson in Round 13 in a 12 team league. Are you telling me that Mahomes is worth selecting 10+ rounds before someone like Lamar?

Let someone else waste an early pick on Mahomes if that's what they want to do. 

Of course.  1 QB leagues there is no reason to draft him so early.  I'm about to do a 2 QB, ten team league for the first time tonight.  I'm thinking of taking him #5 overall.  Teams are all going to be loaded because it's only a 10 teamer, so there will be plenty of RB and WR availability later on.  Secure the #1 player in fantasy football seems to be the smart move.

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45 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

Yes

Dead wrong considering great players like Hill, Aaron Jones, Thielen, Kittle, A. Brown, Ertz, Diggs, K. Allen, etc. got drafted right after Mahomes.


You'd have to be an idiot to value Mahomes over those guys. 

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1 hour ago, Berko1se said:

 

I've found that the opposite happens. You go Mahomes with 1, and everyone gets nervous and starts plucking QB', leaving great value left over at the 24/25 turn.

Bingo! Lol

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1 hour ago, Berko1se said:

 

I've found that the opposite happens. You go Mahomes with 1, and everyone gets nervous and starts plucking QB', leaving great value left over at the 24/25 turn.

 

Depends on the draft. I did a superflex league yesterday where I took him at 7 and the next QB didnt go till the end of the 2nd round. Then after watching the draft unfold I realized these guys were using a 1QB strategy in superflex(all waiting on QBs) which I've been seeing alot of this season. I would of been better served waiting because the value that fell at QB was absurd. Not everyone adjust how you expect them too when you do something. I wasnt upset I ended up with Maowns/Wentz and still having a strong team but the point is you never know what mentality other owners have.

This season every podcast and article has drilled wait on QB into everyones heads and some even in superflex people arent adjusting that strategy much. I've done 4 superflex so far and havent really been seeing people get QB happy like past years. On the VBD sheet I have customized for my league settings QBs are rating out way higher then people are taking them in my superflex leagues. 

I've got a really interesting superflex on Wed its is 6pt PTD. QBs are rating out absurdly strong in this one. Maowns is showing as the #1 player on m spreadsheet Ive got pick 4 and may just take him. If these guys dont adjust there I dont know what to say! 

Edited by buzzkilloton

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He went in the first round in both of my drafts...4th and 5th pick in a 12 teamer but it’s a bunch of chief fans 

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1 hour ago, CooL said:

Of course.  1 QB leagues there is no reason to draft him so early.  I'm about to do a 2 QB, ten team league for the first time tonight.  I'm thinking of taking him #5 overall.  Teams are all going to be loaded because it's only a 10 teamer, so there will be plenty of RB and WR availability later on.  Secure the #1 player in fantasy football seems to be the smart move.

If you say so. There won't be truly elite RB's and WR's available "later on".

I would take the strategy of collecting the elite RB's and WR's while the others go for QB's.

The difference between #1 QB and #10 QB is not as big as the difference between #1 RB and #10 RB. 

Assuming you start 2 QB's, 2 RB's, 2 WR's, 1 TE, 1 Flex. . . I'd rather have 2 top 15 RB's, 2 top 20 WR's, a top 5 TE, and top 20 flex than have 2 top 10 QB's.

You can still grab an elite QB in round 4-6. But that's just me. 

Edited by mbell317

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26 minutes ago, mbell317 said:

If you say so. There won't be truly elite RB's and WR's available "later on".

I would take the strategy of collecting the elite RB's and WR's while the others go for QB's.

The difference between #1 QB and #10 QB is not as big as the difference between #1 RB and #10 RB. 

Assuming you start 2 QB's, 2 RB's, 2 WR's, 1 TE, 1 Flex. . . I'd rather have 2 top 15 RB's, 2 top 20 WR's, a top 5 TE, and top 20 flex than have 2 top 10 QB's.

You can still grab an elite QB in round 4-6. But that's just me. 

While I agree with this, it really does depend on your league settings.  For example, in my league Mahomes finished with 200 more points than the 10th best QB. Gurley finished with 130 more points than 10th best rb. Always look at how players scored in your league last year. I can't stress this enough

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41 minutes ago, buzzkilloton said:

 

Depends on the draft. I did a superflex league yesterday where I took him at 7 and the next QB didnt go till the end of the 2nd round. Then after watching the draft unfold I realized these guys were using a 1QB strategy in superflex(all waiting on QBs) which I've been seeing alot of this season. I would of been better served waiting because the value that fell at QB was absurd. Not everyone adjust how you expect them too when you do something. I wasnt upset I ended up with Maowns/Wentz and still having a strong team but the point is you never know what mentality other owners have.

This season every podcast and article has drilled wait on QB into everyones heads and some even in superflex people arent adjusting that strategy much. I've done 4 superflex so far and havent really been seeing people get QB happy like past years. On the VBD sheet I have customized for my league settings QBs are rating out way higher then people are taking them in my superflex leagues. 

I've got a really interesting superflex on Wed its is 6pt PTD. QBs are rating out absurdly strong in this one. Maowns is showing as the #1 player on m spreadsheet Ive got pick 4 and may just take him. If these guys dont adjust there I dont know what to say! 

Yes, this exact same thing happened to me tonight.  My 2 QB league and scoring settings were valuing QBs high.  I took Mahomes in the first round, but then Watson didn't go until 3rd.  Realized I was then playing with a bunch of amateurs.  I have 3 of the top 12 QBs, which I'm fine with.  My RBs and WRs on paper are of course weaker, but they have upside.  In a 10 team league, there's a lot out there on the wire.

 

The point is, in 2QB and super flex, the QBs are indeed valued more...but if the room doesn't have that same mentality, then you could take advantage of their "wait on QB" strategy and find value.  The problem is you won't know until the draft starts.  Maybe the key is not to be the first person to take a QB?  You do however risk a position run in a snake draft and I certainly didn't want to go into the season starting Kirk Cousins and Phil Rivers.

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In 2QB leagues. Superflex, and 6 point passing TD leagues you can argue round 1. With that you’re banking on 4600/43 TD’s or it’s not worth it.

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31 minutes ago, CooL said:

Yes, this exact same thing happened to me tonight.  My 2 QB league and scoring settings were valuing QBs high.  I took Mahomes in the first round, but then Watson didn't go until 3rd.  Realized I was then playing with a bunch of amateurs.  I have 3 of the top 12 QBs, which I'm fine with.  My RBs and WRs on paper are of course weaker, but they have upside.  In a 10 team league, there's a lot out there on the wire.

 

The point is, in 2QB and super flex, the QBs are indeed valued more...but if the room doesn't have that same mentality, then you could take advantage of their "wait on QB" strategy and find value.  The problem is you won't know until the draft starts.  Maybe the key is not to be the first person to take a QB?  You do however risk a position run in a snake draft and I certainly didn't want to go into the season starting Kirk Cousins and Phil Rivers.

 

Yeah thats the thing if you grab Maowns in round 1 you have no idea how the league values QB. I think the optimal approach is just wait out the first two rounds and see how the draft goes. You'll know by the end of round 2 if everybody is thinking QB if you see Rodgers/Watson/Maowns/Baker going early then you can decide from there. Seems like this year more then past years though everybody is waiting on QBs.

 

20 minutes ago, mjb said:

In 2QB leagues. Superflex, and 6 point passing TD leagues you can argue round 1. With that you’re banking on 4600/43 TD’s or it’s not worth it.

 

Look as I just stated I draft Maowns pick 7 in a super flex. I love the dude and had him on every team last year. Thing is even in vegas his player props are 36.5 TD and 4650 yards so most likely arent getting 43 TDs. I'm still grabbing some since he made me so much cash last season thinking with the heart not my head!

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1 hour ago, dms80790 said:

While I agree with this, it really does depend on your league settings.  For example, in my league Mahomes finished with 200 more points than the 10th best QB. Gurley finished with 130 more points than 10th best rb. Always look at how players scored in your league last year. I can't stress this enough

Also remember to factor in how many players are available per position vs. how many you have to start + how many you may need on your bench for bye weeks and injuries and trades.

I.e. I'll give you 200 points at the QB position if in exchange I get a superior RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, TE, Flex - - - It's pretty easy for me to make up 200 points across 6 positions, not even counting the value of a bench!

Edited by mbell317

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15 minutes ago, mbell317 said:

Also remember to factor in how many players are available per position vs. how many you have to start + how many you may need on your bench for bye weeks and injuries and trades.

I.e. I'll give you 200 points at the QB position if in exchange I get a superior RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, TE, Flex - - - It's pretty easy for me to make up 200 points across 6 positions, not even counting the value of a bench!

 

Dude are you high???? You get to pick ONE of those!!

 

say you take showtime in round 3 and Kenyan drake in round 8.. that’s a 30 point / week player and a 12 point (6 patd, 0.5ppr).

 

compare that to taking Aaron Jones and a Carson wentz (and all other players from round 4,5,6,7 are the same).. that’s a 15 point player and a 22 player..

 

42 > 37 kid, not to mention the exponential floor and ceiling of showtime

Edited by roto_account_117

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34 minutes ago, roto_account_117 said:

 

Dude are you high???? You get to pick ONE of those!!

 

say you take showtime in round 3 and Kenyan drake in round 8.. that’s a 30 point / week player and a 12 point (6 patd, 0.5ppr).

 

compare that to taking Aaron Jones and a Carson wentz (and all other players from round 4,5,6,7 are the same).. that’s a 15 point player and a 22 player..

 

42 > 37 kid, not to mention the exponential floor and ceiling of showtime

What I meant was in total. I just have to be slightly better on average across those 6 spots and I'll easily make up your superiority at 1 QB position. 

Not to mention that my risk is spread across 6 positions.

I maintain that my 12th round QB is not much worse than your early round QB. 

While my early round RB's will destroy your scrub 12th round RB's.

This is common sense. You take Mahomes in round 2 and I'll take Tyreke Hill. All day long. 

 

Edited by mbell317

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15 minutes ago, mbell317 said:

My early round elite RB/WR owns your RB/WR that you took after Mahomes *

Wasn't this conversation about Superflex and 2 QB leagues?  If your statement is true, then why do all the cheatsheets, VBDs, rankings all place so much more emphasis on QBs in these formats?

 

1 hour ago, buzzkilloton said:

 

Yeah thats the thing if you grab Maowns in round 1 you have no idea how the league values QB. I think the optimal approach is just wait out the first two rounds and see how the draft goes. You'll know by the end of round 2 if everybody is thinking QB if you see Rodgers/Watson/Maowns/Baker going early then you can decide from there. Seems like this year more then past years though everybody is waiting on QBs.

For sure.  This is my first ever 2 QB format, and also I'm drafting in a room where I don't know anybody.  I think I could have waited, but I really wanted Mahomes so didn't want to wait for somebody else to break the seal. Once I saw the second QB didn't go until round 3, that Joe Flacco went as a QB1 in round 7 with the comment that the manager lives in Denver, and that defenses and kickers were being drafted early...yeah, I could tell the competition in the room wasn't what I'm used to.

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3 hours ago, mbell317 said:

Dead wrong considering great players like Hill, Aaron Jones, Thielen, Kittle, A. Brown, Ertz, Diggs, K. Allen, etc. got drafted right after Mahomes.


You'd have to be an idiot to value Mahomes over those guys. 

I would take Mahomes over ANY of those guys besides Hill

I will gladly take the top scorer in any format, who wins you weeks, I will gladly pair Mahomes and someone like Mike Williams over Thielen and Cam

 

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14 minutes ago, CooL said:

Wasn't this conversation about Superflex and 2 QB leagues?  If your statement is true, then why do all the cheatsheets, VBDs, rankings all place so much more emphasis on QBs in these formats?

 

For sure.  This is my first ever 2 QB format, and also I'm drafting in a room where I don't know anybody.  I think I could have waited, but I really wanted Mahomes so didn't want to wait for somebody else to break the seal. Once I saw the second QB didn't go until round 3, that Joe Flacco went as a QB1 in round 7 with the comment that the manager lives in Denver, and that defenses and kickers were being drafted early...yeah, I could tell the competition in the room wasn't what I'm used to.

There's been a mixing and confusion of formats.

 

I'm speaking mostly from a 12 team standard league perspective. Not 2 QB. 

 

I've yet to see someone explain how Mahomes is a good pick in the 2nd round in that format. 

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2 minutes ago, Golden Spikes said:

I would take Mahomes over ANY of those guys besides Hill

I will gladly take the top scorer in any format, who wins you weeks, I will gladly pair Mahomes and someone like Mike Williams over Thielen and Cam

 

So you'd rather have Le'Veon, Mahomes, Mike Evans...over Hopkins, Beckham, Ertz?

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1 minute ago, mbell317 said:

There's been a mixing and confusion of formats.

 

I'm speaking mostly from a 12 team standard league perspective. Not 2 QB. 

 

I've yet to see someone explain how Mahomes is a good pick in the 2nd round in that format. 

here is how

Mahomes scored 446 points in my league last year

Cousins scored 309 points as the 12th scoring QB

Thats 137 pts or almost 10! pts per game.  You will not find a greater difference from anyone in the 16-24 range who will outscore any other player at their position who is worthy of starting

Example

Keenan Allen 262 pts 

Chester Rogers 127 pts.  Rogers was the 62nd overall WR

 

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2 minutes ago, mbell317 said:

So you'd rather have Le'Veon, Mahomes, Mike Evans...over Hopkins, Beckham, Ertz?

yes I would, one could argue that Evens can produce in the same tier as Hopkins and OBJ, however you aren't getting Evans in the 3rd I dont think

for example in a 12 man league today, I drafted 5th overall, I ended up with Hopkins, Mahomes, Cook

but you cant look at as a 3 round scenario

if I had leveon mahomes evans and added MWilliams and Engram vs you getting Hopkins Beckham Ertz with Big Ben and say Jeffrey, id like my team 

 

 

Edited by Golden Spikes

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