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Joe Mixon 2019 Outlook

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Big bounce back season for Smokin Joe Mixon this past season, taking the league by storm and becoming the AFC’s leading rusher. Mixon’s ADP is something I am strongly monitoring over the next few months before draft season hits. Wondering what are the thoughts on his upcoming 2019 campaign.

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Sounds slightly crazy, but I think he finishes as a top 5 RB next year. He can catch and he can run with power. Zac Taylor being the coach most likely for the Bengals means we could see a dynamic back in Mixon. His knee can be a concern, but the Bengals took a cautious approach with it and got it fixed up. He is worth the risk for trading for or even selecting at the back end of round 1 right now, but they do need need to fix the offense up a little bit.

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1 hour ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

Sounds slightly crazy, but I think he finishes as a top 5 RB next year. He can catch and he can run with power. Zac Taylor being the coach most likely for the Bengals means we could see a dynamic back in Mixon. His knee can be a concern, but the Bengals took a cautious approach with it and got it fixed up. He is worth the risk for trading for or even selecting at the back end of round 1 right now, but they do need need to fix the offense up a little bit.

 

If every RB who posters think will finish as a top 5 RB actually finished as a top 5 RB, we’d have about a dozen top 5 RBs. We’d probably have about 20 top 10 backs, too. Lol. 

 

I like Mixon, but I don’t see him as a top 5 guy. I don’t see him breaking in past Gurley, Zeke, CMC, Kamara, Saquon...barring an injury to 1-2 of them.Then throw Bell back into the mix next year if he lands in a good spot. 

 

What remains to be seen is what the new HC and OC will do with Mixon. That makes it a little harder to judge. 

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Mixon in 13 games had 1168 rushing yards and 43 catches for 296 with 9 total touchdowns. He is only 22/23 which is also great. He finished 10th in standard ppr leagues. If he had those 2 extra games I think he would've finished around 7 or 8th maybe even 6th around Conner. The gap was minimal from 8th up to 6th. 4.5 points was the gap, but from 6th to 5th it was 49. AJ Green coming back and maybe the bengals can get a healthy TE and Lineman and he could have that big boom potential.

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Mixon was held back by a coaching staff that would mysteriously pull him on important series or not include him more in the passing game.

if this new coaching staff  can get out of his way he could easily be an elite rb this season for the price of a 2nd round pick. 

 

He is one of the reasons I would probably pick a wr like hopkins/adams early then grab mixon as my rb1 or u can  grab a gurley-barkley-kamara-cmc-zeke and then mixon falls to u on the next pick u can grab a bunch of mid tiers wr's or a top TE to build ur roster with

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Gio is UFA this year I think.  Could be gone. Plus a new coach trying to make a name, Cincy may ride Mixon like a rented mule.  Add OL and throw to him more and top 5 isn't out of the question. 

 

One thing I don't like tho is a new OC yet again. 2018 was Lazor's second year and first year of a new system risks a bumpy ride. 

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1 hour ago, FavreCo said:

I would assume Zac Taylor will use him like the Rams used Gurley.

I don't think it can get any worse than the play-calling last season with Marvin Lewis at the helm.

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22 minutes ago, devaster said:

I don't think it can get any worse than the play-calling last season with Marvin Lewis at the helm.

pretty much. Plus having dalton and green back will help him. Im hoping he has more chances for catches as well. I am buying into him next year being a top 5 back.

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14 hours ago, FavreCo said:

I would assume Zac Taylor will use him like the Rams used Gurley.

 

12 hours ago, devaster said:

I don't think it can get any worse than the play-calling last season with Marvin Lewis at the helm.

 

12 hours ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

pretty much. 

 

Let me stop you all before this gets any more out of control than it already is.

 

 

1. Bill Lazor called plays.  Marvin Lewis did not touch play calling.  I don't know who was responsible for sending Gio in on passing downs, that might be the only thing Lewis had control over, but I'd bet even that was Lazor or the RB coach.

 

 

2. His offense was good.  Recall AJG went out in Week 9.  Dalton went out in Week 12.  Weeks 1 through 8:

 

W 34-31 at Indy

W 34-23 v Baltimore

L 21-31 at Carolina

W 37-36 at Atlanta

W 27-17 v Miami

L 21-28 v Pittsburgh

L 10-45 at KC

W 37-34 v TB

 

5-3.  Three losses at Carolina, v PITT, and at KC).  27.6 points per game, which would have been the 5th best offense in 2018.  Granted that all offense slows down as the season goes on, and that Cincy probably wouldn't have ended there...  But even after losing the starting quarterback and WR1 for half the year they finished as the 17th highest scoring offense anyways.

 

 

3. The Rams had the best OL in football.  The Bengals have Glenn and Price who both appear to be injury prone.  Taylor can try to use Mixon like the Rams used Gurley.  Or maybe he uses Mixon like Matt Lafleur -- the last hyped up McVay apprentice -- used Derrick Henry in Tennessee.  We don't know and we can't make assumptions.  

 

---

 

Bill Lazor had an established offense that worked well and though they could've thrown to Mixon more they pounded him with rushing volume and Lazor got more out of the running game than the sub-par offensive line rightfully should have allowed.  Even when Dalton and AJG went down, Mixon sustained.

 

Now Andy Dalton's onto his 3rd offensive system in as many years.  Historical evidence shows that new systems generally (but not always) don't take off until Year 2.  It also shows that McVay assistants aren't really anything like Sean McVay.  In fact McVay may not even be like McVay anymore now that the Bears and Pats have depantsed him and his scheme.  

 

This is a dumb, desperate hire and the odds are that the Bengals are as sad as they were in 2018.  The Bengals need a better leader and they need a better defensive coordinator.  They got a young offensive coach who's never even called plays, let alone lead an entire locker room of grown men.

 

I'm not panicking on Mixon cuz he's a stud RB who should still get workhorse volume.  I doubt the offense is in scoring position as often as it was in 2018 though, and that is not good for his outlook.

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2 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

 

 

Let me stop you all before this gets any more out of control than it already is.

 

 

1. Bill Lazor called plays.  Marvin Lewis did not touch play calling.  I don't know who was responsible for sending Gio in on passing downs, that might be the only thing Lewis had control over, but I'd bet even that was Lazor or the RB coach.

 

 

2. His offense was good.  Recall AJG went out in Week 9.  Dalton went out in Week 12.  Weeks 1 through 8:

 

W 34-31 at Indy

W 34-23 v Baltimore

L 21-31 at Carolina

W 37-36 at Atlanta

W 27-17 v Miami

L 21-28 v Pittsburgh

L 10-45 at KC

W 37-34 v TB

 

5-3.  Three losses at Carolina, v PITT, and at KC).  27.6 points per game, which would have been the 5th best offense in 2018.  Granted that all offense slows down as the season goes on, and that Cincy probably wouldn't have ended there...  But even after losing the starting quarterback and WR1 for half the year they finished as the 17th highest scoring offense anyways.

 

 

3. The Rams had the best OL in football.  The Bengals have Glenn and Price who both appear to be injury prone.  Taylor can try to use Mixon like the Rams used Gurley.  Or maybe he uses Mixon like Matt Lafleur -- the last hyped up McVay apprentice -- used Derrick Henry in Tennessee.  We don't know and we can't make assumptions.  

 

---

 

Bill Lazor had an established offense that worked well and though they could've thrown to Mixon more they pounded him with rushing volume and Lazor got more out of the running game than the sub-par offensive line rightfully should have allowed.  Even when Dalton and AJG went down, Mixon sustained.

 

Now Andy Dalton's onto his 3rd offensive system in as many years.  Historical evidence shows that new systems generally (but not always) don't take off until Year 2.  It also shows that McVay assistants aren't really anything like Sean McVay.  In fact McVay may not even be like McVay anymore now that the Bears and Pats have depantsed him and his scheme.  

 

This is a dumb, desperate hire and the odds are that the Bengals are as sad as they were in 2018.  The Bengals need a better leader and they need a better defensive coordinator.  They got a young offensive coach who's never even called plays, let alone lead an entire locker room of grown men.

 

I'm not panicking on Mixon cuz he's a stud RB who should still get workhorse volume.  I doubt the offense is in scoring position as often as it was in 2018 though, and that is not good for his outlook.

Good points. Though, if Gio walks and Mixon takes on a Gurley-esque role, his overall fantasy numbers would go up even if his TDs regressed a couple, especially in ppr. 

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30 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Good points. Though, if Gio walks and Mixon takes on a Gurley-esque role, his overall fantasy numbers would go up even if his TDs regressed a couple, especially in ppr. 

 

I agree.  There's upside for more receptions for Mixon -- a lot more, if they force the issue -- and that would be good for his outlook.

 

Couple points on that, though.  1) This is an assumption, or a hope.  There's no way to know, and so I don't think it would be wise to just bank on it when projecting volume or making a 1st round selection.  2) I still just wanted to address the headwinds his outlook was facing, which other posters seemed to think were actually positive factors for his outlook.

Edited by Lord_Varys

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34 minutes ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

Great news coming out to see he is putting a focus on durability and stamina. 

Also stated that he has set his eyes on 400 carries for this upcoming season. Being a Mixon owner that would be spectacular, however that’s an absurd amount.

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I think the 400 carries thing was just a hyperbolic statement to signify he's eager to start practicing/playing and is up for whatever.  It'd be irresponsible to push him anywhere near that amount.  

This thread's been a good one so far with solid back and forth about Mixon's expectations for this year under a new staff.   As most say, i think the key here is he certainly looks the part of a volume player, which is all you can ask for.    I dont think he's in a situation where he's going to blow up, but I think he's a high floor player.  That's fine for me to consider once the top backs are off the board. 

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Top 5 is probably too ambitious, but if Mixon maintains his current ADP up through the draft (RB9, 13th overall) I feel a lot better about him matching expectations given his draft price versus others in that vicinity (Chubb, DJ, Cook, etc) and a helluva lot less nervous than I would about getting value from someone like Gurley at the 1.02 given his late 2018 performance. 

BTW if current numbers hold this is looking like the best setup for the 12 hole in a snake draft I've seen in a long while. If you're picking at the 1/2 turn in a 12 man then you can take Mixon and a stud WR1 like Julio; then at the 3/4 turn grab a guy like Mack or Lindsay as your RB2 and pair him with a KA/Thielen/Cooks/Diggs.  That's a helluva core team.  Or you reach a bit for Kelce as your second pick and go WR1/WR2 at the 3/4 turn and hopefully snag McKinnon or Ingram as your RB2 (ADP about 56 and 64 currently).

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I dont think Mixon has the surrounding situation needed to be a true top 5 back.  Right now they have the look of a 4th place team, and there's plenty of data to back up those who fade running backs from teams like this.    I suppose he could workhorse his way to a top spot if a bunch of expected studs fail, but that doesn't mean he's not a good value.   You gotta love the floor that comes along with his youth and expected volume.   

 

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9 minutes ago, BrianM said:

I dont think Mixon has the surrounding situation needed to be a true top 5 back.  Right now they have the look of a 4th place team, and there's plenty of data to back up those who fade running backs from teams like this.    I suppose he could workhorse his way to a top spot if a bunch of expected studs fail, but that doesn't mean he's not a good value.   You gotta love the floor that comes along with his youth and expected volume.   

 


Giants sucked worse than Cincy last year and came in 4th in their division yet Saquon was an uber-stud.  Unfortunately the Giants are under no delusion that Eli is still a good QB and have shifted volume to Saquon accordingly and I'm unsure if the Bengals still think Andy Dalton is a good QB and would avoid shifting workload to Mixon. 

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49 minutes ago, jumper said:


Giants sucked worse than Cincy last year and came in 4th in their division yet Saquon was an uber-stud.  Unfortunately the Giants are under no delusion that Eli is still a good QB and have shifted volume to Saquon accordingly and I'm unsure if the Bengals still think Andy Dalton is a good QB and would avoid shifting workload to Mixon. 

Barkley didn't have marv+ lazor underutilizing his talent and squeezing in gio for passing work whenever they could  😊

I like the talent of Mixon but i'm not willing to reach for him with a HC who has zero track record in the NFL aside from being an interim OC for 5 games add to that a new OC who has never been an OC

The bengals are a muddle of unknowns; it almost feels like hey are conducting some new  experiment of how to hire coaches and seeing how it turns out.

Edited by dashoe

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1 hour ago, BrianM said:

I dont think Mixon has the surrounding situation needed to be a true top 5 back.  Right now they have the look of a 4th place team, and there's plenty of data to back up those who fade running backs from teams like this.    I suppose he could workhorse his way to a top spot if a bunch of expected studs fail, but that doesn't mean he's not a good value.   You gotta love the floor that comes along with his youth and expected volume.   

 

 

Saquan and CmC were both top 5 last year. Please show us the 'data'.

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All in on Mixon in 2019, especially if he falls out of Round 1. Have him as my 9th ranked player, and would take him above any wideout. 

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21 hours ago, jumper said:

Giants sucked worse than Cincy last year and came in 4th in their division yet Saquon was an uber-stud.

 

Saquon is on another level than Mixon, and Shurmur knows how to call run plays.  Who knows with Zac Taylor?

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26 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Saquon is on another level than Mixon, and Shurmur knows how to call run plays.  Who knows with Zac Taylor?

 

There are good fantasy RBs on crap team's every year. This is a fact.

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So, using the word data was probably a poor choice from me, should've said that I'd bet there's data to support the bad teams = most likely bad fantasy backs theory.    Do i have it?  No.    I was of the mind that its a struggle for bad teams (usually) to run the ball effectively when they struggle to stay competitive.    How often do these teams go pass heavy in the second half of a game they're trailing?    Fully acknowledge Barkley destroying this thought.  McCaffrey was actually on a winning team for most of the season, they didn't fall out of contention until December, and they weren't in the bottom third of the league, despite being a 4th place team (and yes, i know that's what I said)

I still am a Mixon believer, just to reiterate.  I just couldn't get to seeing him as a top 5.   I think he's a good receiver but I can't picture the mass volume that Barkley gets, nor the amount of big plays, and I think there will be less carries to be had than if he played for a 10 win team.   

 

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