joebaker23

Joe Mixon 2019 Outlook

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Honestly, bad teams are probably more likely to give more carries to a RB as opposed to passing.

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21 minutes ago, BrianM said:

So, using the word data was probably a poor choice from me, should've said that I'd bet there's data to support the bad teams = most likely bad fantasy backs theory.    Do i have it?  No.    I was of the mind that its a struggle for bad teams (usually) to run the ball effectively when they struggle to stay competitive.    How often do these teams go pass heavy in the second half of a game they're trailing?    Fully acknowledge Barkley destroying this thought.  McCaffrey was actually on a winning team for most of the season, they didn't fall out of contention until December, and they weren't in the bottom third of the league, despite being a 4th place team (and yes, i know that's what I said)

I still am a Mixon believer, just to reiterate.  I just couldn't get to seeing him as a top 5.   I think he's a good receiver but I can't picture the mass volume that Barkley gets, nor the amount of big plays, and I think there will be less carries to be had than if he played for a 10 win team.   

 

 

But people are giving you data that says top 5 backs come from crap team's every year. I'll go with that data over something you think might be true.

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5 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

But people are giving you data that says top 5 backs come from crap team's every year. I'll go with that data over something you think might be true.

 

Every year? 

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2 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

There are good fantasy RBs on crap team's every year. This is a fact.

 

Sure.  Mixon last year.  But the team is getting crappier this year.

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2 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Sure.  Mixon last year.  But the team is getting crappier this year.

 

I think that is fundamentally the problem, the bengals were a bad team from the coaching side and had some decent talent on the field. The talent is measureable but the application of the talent under an unknown coaching staff is an unknown. 

Is the talent the right fit for the coaching? is this going to be a a it's ok to lose this season to get to the next draft for your next gen franchise QB? Will they pull the plug on Dalton and trade away AJG?

 

So many unknowns😱

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

Honestly, bad teams are probably more likely to give more carries to a RB as opposed to passing.

Why wouldn't it be a factor of the most talented player on a bad team getting the majority of touches and production instead of just the RB getting more carries?  On bad teams we see all kinds of configurations, some the guy is an RB (see Saquon for NYG), other bad teams its a WR (Mike Evans for TB), and for some even a QB (Josh Allen for BUF).  In Cincy there's still going to be AJ Green to account for and presumably suck some touches away from Mixon even if they don't sign a stud FA or draft an impact player. 

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30 minutes ago, jumper said:

Why wouldn't it be a factor of the most talented player on a bad team getting the majority of touches and production instead of just the RB getting more carries?  On bad teams we see all kinds of configurations, some the guy is an RB (see Saquon for NYG), other bad teams its a WR (Mike Evans for TB), and for some even a QB (Josh Allen for BUF).  In Cincy there's still going to be AJ Green to account for and presumably suck some touches away from Mixon even if they don't sign a stud FA or draft an impact player. 

I just meant that most successful teams realize that throwing is a better value-choice than rushing.

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1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Sure.  Mixon last year.  But the team is getting crappier this year.

 

But that doesn't directly correlate to Mixon getting better or worse.

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8 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

But that doesn't directly correlate to Mixon getting better or worse.

 

Tell that to David Johnson owners last year.

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1 minute ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Tell that to David Johnson owners last year.

 

And Saquan owners? 

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48 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I just meant that most successful teams realize that throwing is a better value-choice than rushing.


2017 Jags disagree with after watching the bipolar Blake Bortles implode.  2019 Rams disagree after Goff stunk up the joint in the SB.  I'd consider both of those some of the recent "most successful" teams and yet they would have been far better to commit more to the run and that throwing certainly wasn't a "better value choice" for them (although a poor passing attack allowed the opponent D to cheat the run in both cases). 

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1 hour ago, jumper said:


2017 Jags disagree with after watching the bipolar Blake Bortles implode.  2019 Rams disagree after Goff stunk up the joint in the SB.  I'd consider both of those some of the recent "most successful" teams and yet they would have been far better to commit more to the run and that throwing certainly wasn't a "better value choice" for them (although a poor passing attack allowed the opponent D to cheat the run in both cases). 

 

Rams and Pat's were both top 5 rushing team's also. 

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2 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

And Saquan owners? 

 

Their offense wasn't so incompetent, and Saquon's better than both.

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12 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Their offense wasn't so incompetent, and Saquon's better than both.

 

Ok Jordan Howard the year before.

 

This is not an argument you can win. It is a factual statement that a RB doesn't need to be on a good team to put up good fantasy numbers.

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The Bengals offense isn't as bad as the Cardinals. Joe Mixon will be ok. I do believe if healthy he could be a top 5 finisher. Green, Boyd and possibly a healthy Eifert isn't that far off from a bad offense. No one knows what this team will be with Zac taylor. Mixon I would assume gets 300 touches this year.

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1 hour ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

The Bengals offense isn't as bad as the Cardinals. Joe Mixon will be ok. I do believe if healthy he could be a top 5 finisher. Green, Boyd and possibly a healthy Eifert isn't that far off from a bad offense. No one knows what this team will be with Zac taylor. Mixon I would assume gets 300 touches this year.

 

Why is this said every season and it never happens?😁

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2 hours ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

The Bengals offense isn't as bad as the Cardinals. Joe Mixon will be ok. I do believe if healthy he could be a top 5 finisher. Green, Boyd and possibly a healthy Eifert isn't that far off from a bad offense. No one knows what this team will be with Zac taylor. Mixon I would assume gets 300 touches this year.

 

Isn't Eifert gone?

 

Also, healthy Eifert is an oxymoron.

 

 

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On 2/28/2019 at 2:36 PM, dmb3684 said:

 

Ok Jordan Howard the year before.

 

This is not an argument you can win. It is a factual statement that a RB doesn't need to be on a good team to put up good fantasy numbers.

 

It's a factual statement that a better, higher scoring offense is better for a RB.  Not only is this an argument that you can't win, it's not an argument at all.

 

OF COURSE RBs can still produce well on bad offenses.  And the sky's blue.

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19 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

It's a factual statement that a better, higher scoring offense is better for a RB.  

 

 If you say so. That wasn't the original point made. Not gonna argue with you.

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Surprised everyone is uncertain due to the team getting worse. Last years thread seemed like all the owners wanted anyone but Lewis (or Lazor) with Mixon and that anyone would be a vast improvement.

Edited by hoppychokes

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1 hour ago, hoppychokes said:

Surprised everyone is uncertain due to the team getting worse. Last years thread seemed like all the owners wanted anyone but Lewis (or Lazor) with Mixon and that anyone would be a vast improvement.

I don't think anyone was predicting that the Bengals would hire a HC and OC who both have never held the position of NFL HC or OC.😂

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Are they really getting worse? Are they getting better? The truth is no one knows how the team will fare. They completely cleaned house. 

 

Btw, it also didn't help matters that they had over 15+ guys on IR, which was absurd. And they were still close from being a.500 team by two games.

 

He's going to fall in some dratfs because... Reasons??? He has a good chance of being THE BEST back in the league next season. He shouldn't go past the snake end of the 1st in drafts. 

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On 3/1/2019 at 9:44 AM, dmb3684 said:

 

Isn't Eifert gone?

 

Also, healthy Eifert is an oxymoron.

 

 

 

This reminds me of the Steelers Defensive Coordinator who was quoted leading up to their game in Week 17 talking about how Eifert is going to be a problem to cover, even though he was on IR for months (https://deadspin.com/steelers-coordinator-says-his-defense-will-have-a-prob-1831362806). 

Edited by simanium

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On 3/2/2019 at 11:07 AM, Trench Mob said:

Are they really getting worse? Are they getting better? The truth is no one knows how the team will fare. They completely cleaned house. 

 

Btw, it also didn't help matters that they had over 15+ guys on IR, which was absurd. And they were still close from being a.500 team by two games.

 

He's going to fall in some dratfs because... Reasons??? He has a good chance of being THE BEST back in the league next season. He shouldn't go past the snake end of the 1st in drafts. 

First time I’ve seen a 1st rd grade on Mixon for ‘19

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On 3/2/2019 at 12:59 AM, hoppychokes said:

Surprised everyone is uncertain due to the team getting worse.  Last years thread seemed like all the owners wanted anyone but Lewis (or Lazor) with Mixon and that anyone would be a vast improvement.

 

There may have been some of that but the consensus was that Lazor was an unknown and therefore a risk.  We didn't want anyone but Lazor.  We didn't know what we were going to get with him.  Risky for a 3rd round investment.  Lazor turned out to be great at what he did and it was one of the main reasons Mixon outperformed his ADP. 

 

Now we're getting another unknown.  Risk.  What are the odds Taylor -- a young guy who's never even called plays -- is going to be even better than a guy who was pretty good?  Then for the sake of argument, say that we hit those long odds... how long does it take for the offense to reach its peak performance?  I ask because we know it takes time for new systems to find their rhythm.  This is Dalton's 3rd OC in as many years.

 

This is different from last year.  I'm not fading Mixon too far but people saying he'll be a top 5 fantasy RB need to pump the breaks.

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