joebaker23

Joe Mixon 2019 Outlook

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15 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

 

I don’t feel there’s a huge difference between Mixon and many of the rbs going 1-2 rounds later.   Fournette, Jacobs, A Jones.   Or even the guys you might see on the backside of the turn-   Cook, Gurley, Chubb, Bell

 

The first turn is the only place to get first tier WRs.    They drop off quick and then level out.  

 

JMO

 

 

The difference comes down to the risk factors. All those guys carry risk factors suggesting they might not be uses as much or they might get injured or something. Mixon is a talented RB1 with no reason to think he won't have bell cow production.

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1 hour ago, Jags02 said:

Mixon is a talented RB1 with no reason to think he won't have bell cow production.

Such questions would not be about his talent, but about the coaches and the competition. Some coaches simply don't do bell-cow; other coaches will do it even with lesser talent.

The Bengals have a new HC and a new OC, both without a lot of experience in those functions:
- the HC was de facto OC for one season in 2015 in Miami (where Lamar Miller had 241 touches)
- the OC was assistant and QB coach, never OC.
So the coaching clearly is a wild-card here - no idea what they'll do. 

Another important consideration is whether they have any serious backups. The #2 is Gio, and I don't consider him a big threat; they also drafted 2 RBs in the 6th round which again doesn't sound that scary but of course these fresh new coaches may choose to include one of those fresh new RBs heavily (even 100 touches may be a big difference to Mixon).

So I'm not yet as confident as you are. Mixon may be a bellcow, or they may just have him as #1 of a RBBC. I may be overthinking it, but for me Mixon is around RB12 until I know a bit more.

Edited by Boudewijn
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My only concern with Mixon is the Bengals D.

They are hopeless. Arguably the least talented in the league. How often are they going to be playing in catchup mode and slinging it trying to get downfield quickly?

Will they actually get the opportunity to establish the run that often?

I'm unsure. 

I picked up Mixon at the backend of round one in a starter dynasty draft last season and I'm all in on his ability, but I just don't think the Bengals are gonna help him be as good as he can this season.

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3 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Such questions would not be about his talent, but about the coaches and the competition. Some coaches simply don't do bell-cow; other coaches will do it even with lesser talent.

The Bengals have a new HC and a new OC, both without a lot of experience in those functions:
- the HC was de facto OC for one season in 2015 in Miami (where Lamar Miller had 241 touches)
- the OC was assistant and QB coach, never OC.
So the coaching clearly is a wild-card here - no idea what they'll do. 

Another important consideration is whether they have any serious backups. The #2 is Gio, and I don't consider him a big threat; they also drafted 2 RBs in the 6th round which again doesn't sound that scary but of course these fresh new coaches may choose to include one of those fresh new RBs heavily (even 100 touches may be a big difference to Mixon).

So I'm not yet as confident as you are. Mixon may be a bellcow, or they may just have him as #1 of a RBBC. I may be overthinking it, but for me Mixon is around RB12 until I know a bit more.

 

I understand your concern and agree with a lot of the things you said.

 

Here's a few rebuttals though:

 

1)  This staff was in place in February

2)  NFL FA Happened when they were in place - RB situation not addressed

3)  NFL Draft happened when they were in place - RB situation not really addressed (although I do like Tray Williams a bit, I think I'll never hear Rodney Anderson's name called in the pros).

4)  Both these coaches come from the Rams and they both saw that their machine started and stopped with Todd Gurley.  When he was hurt that unstoppable train got parked at the station

5)  Instead of addressing the RB position they addressed the OL (basically first 2 picks were OL) and D.

 

I get the concern with the unknown, but there are a lot of positives in that unknown sector as well.

 

So the real question is... RB12?  

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3 hours ago, fjthegrey said:

My only concern with Mixon is the Bengals D.

They are hopeless. Arguably the least talented in the league. How often are they going to be playing in catchup mode and slinging it trying to get downfield quickly?

Will they actually get the opportunity to establish the run that often?

I'm unsure. 

I picked up Mixon at the backend of round one in a starter dynasty draft last season and I'm all in on his ability, but I just don't think the Bengals are gonna help him be as good as he can this season.

 

What if I told you... Mixon can catch

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There goes the new tackle for the season.      At least they have other guys to play there, but the ideal line was this kid stepping right in and Glenn shifting inside, I imagine

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How much do we think this downgrades him? I guess it's tough to say now as a lot could happen between now and Week 1, but for the sake of the argument say they do nothing. Does that put him back in the Conner/Chubb/Cook range at the beginning of the 2nd or do we still think he's a cut above those guys?

 

 

Edited by Olliemets

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7 minutes ago, Olliemets said:

How much do we think this downgrades him? I guess it's tough to say now as a lot could happen between now and Week 1, but for the sake of the argument say they do nothing. Does that put him back in the Conner/Chubb/Cook range at the beginning of the 2nd or do we still think he's a cut above those guys?

 

 

 

I would put him just below Conner and above Chubb/Cook.

At least the Bengals have plenty of time to address the loss.

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Not a huge change for me- I had him a nose ahead of Conner, and now they're tied.   

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6 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Noooooooo!!! 

 

Any free agents worth anything still left at LT?? 

From a quick google search, Donald Penn looks to be the best name available. Ryan Schraeder, Andre Smith, Anthony Davis and Jeremy Parnell are also a few seasoned vets still out there. They're luckily pretty flexible and could just move Cordy Glenn back to LT and find a Guard if there is better value going that route.

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Its not a situation where a huge hole is left.  Instead its a downgrade, most likely, of two positions, but not a massive one.   

Sometimes when you have the injury early, you can more quickly find out if an in house replacement exists that would've gone unnoticed.   Or, perhaps you can more easily sniff out a trade opportunity for a veteran that's expendable on another team.    Then again, Mike Brown might simply say "I ain't paying two players" and demand they get by with what they have regardless, good or bad.  

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3 hours ago, Olliemets said:

How much do we think this downgrades him?

I was going to say this is even more of a blow to the passing game, as far as they had one. But this analysis below makes sense to me:

https://nflspinzone.com/2019/06/25/cincinnati-bengals-jonah-williams-injury/

Quote

If there is a silver lining, the Bengals do have a strong replacement for Williams at left tackle in the form of Glenn, who has spent his career at tackle and was moving inside to guard. However, the issue is that now John Jerry will likely come in and start at left guard, which then leaves the interior of the line in a questionable position.

That's not good for your RB of course.

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Yeah this takes him down a hair, but only that. This means their OL should be about as good as last year right? When he averaged almost 5 ypc? 

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4 hours ago, Olliemets said:

From a quick google search, Donald Penn looks to be the best name available. Ryan Schraeder, Andre Smith, Anthony Davis and Jeremy Parnell are also a few seasoned vets still out there. They're luckily pretty flexible and could just move Cordy Glenn back to LT and find a Guard if there is better value going that route.

 

Donald Penn would be a great 1 year stop gap IMO. 

 

Not saying he's great, but great for late June to have him available if they truly want to compete. 

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8 hours ago, Gmen07 said:

Jonah Williams is out for the season smh. That's a major loss. 

 

Ouch. This sucks.

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On 6/25/2019 at 11:54 AM, Olliemets said:

How much do we think this downgrades him? I guess it's tough to say now as a lot could happen between now and Week 1, but for the sake of the argument say they do nothing. Does that put him back in the Conner/Chubb/Cook range at the beginning of the 2nd or do we still think he's a cut above those guys?

 

 

I downgraded my stats projection a tad for the loss, but it wasn't enough of a downgrade for him to actually fall back a position. He's still my #7 RB, but he's now basically neck-in-neck with James Conner in my 8th spot. It wasn't too long ago that I was thinking about how the Bengals OL has improved with Johah Williams, so it is somewhat of a blow.

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On 6/25/2019 at 12:13 PM, BrianM said:

Not a huge change for me- I had him a nose ahead of Conner, and now they're tied.   

 

If I read a little further, I wouldn't have even made my last reply. I would have just quoted this and said, "ditto."

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The repeated comments from Bengals camp about keeping Mixon fresh and using Bernard more has me scaling back just ever so slightly on Mixon. That said, the slight scale back was enough to move Conner ahead of Mixon as they were virtually neck-in-neck.

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11 hours ago, Jags02 said:

The repeated comments from Bengals camp about keeping Mixon fresh and using Bernard more has me scaling back just ever so slightly on Mixon.

Can we have a quote on that? What I see is that it's conjecture from a "The Atheletic" beat writer (Paul Dehner Jr). However, what I think he said is:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/whats-in-store-for-the-bengals-in-2019-heres-what-we-know-about-one-of-the-nfls-biggest-enigmas/

Quote

"I will argue that Giovani Bernard was one of the most underused assets in the NFLlast year," Dehner said, pointing out that there are a select few running backs who've averaged 4 yards per carry and 9 yards per catch over a season -- something Bernard has done three times. "They want to use him more. You'll see less of Mixon, but he'll be just as efficient, if not more, as they use more of their backs."

That's nice... but it seems to be his conjecture.

(Warning: I can't be arsed to listen to an hour of podcast, so maybe he also mentions at some point he heard it from Taylor at the annual bbq. If so, let me know.)

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This is the dead period where conjecture from beat writers is viewed as fact. Buyer beware...

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Another beat writer steering stats to drive a narrative. 

 

The offense stalled hard when Bernard saw extended run. 

 

I'm still so bummed about that OL going down and so far they haven't addressed it as I understand. That's a huge hit for me on Mixon. 

 

I'm trying to work a juju owner into trading me straight up. I just wanna eject on this whole offense. 

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