joebaker23

Joe Mixon 2019 Outlook

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I was looking forward to getting him at the turn but with the OL and AJ situations, I'm passing.   Great player on what could be a bad offense. 

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21 hours ago, K197040 said:

I was looking forward to getting him at the turn but with the OL and AJ situations, I'm passing.   Great player on what could be a bad offense. 

 

Who will you take over him?  At the turn you're looking at basically the same type of RB....high ceiling with question marks.  Just curious.

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33 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Who will you take over him?  At the turn you're looking at basically the same type of RB....high ceiling with question marks.  Just curious.

Conner Gurley and cook for me. 

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34 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Who will you take over him?  At the turn you're looking at basically the same type of RB....high ceiling with question marks.  Just curious.

 

I'll probably pass and take 2WR. 

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1 hour ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Who will you take over him?  At the turn you're looking at basically the same type of RB....high ceiling with question marks.  Just curious.

In June before the Jonah and AJ injuries I had him at RB6 after the big 4 + Melvin. Now I have him RB10 behind big 4, DJ, Bell, Cook, Gurley, and Chubb. 

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12 hours ago, Olliemets said:

In June before the Jonah and AJ injuries I had him at RB6 after the big 4 + Melvin. Now I have him RB10 behind big 4, DJ, Bell, Cook, Gurley, and Chubb. 

 

Mixon will surprise a lot of people this year.

 

He finished pretty strong even with AJ green injured.Mixon also played injured last year. They also beefed up the line 

 

Remember Jeff Fisher/Gurley?

 

it was bad right ? Just like the Marvin Lewis/Mixon deal. Insert Zac Taylor, the guy has a chance to break into Tier 1.  I actually think only 1 of the “big 4” will finish in tier 1. 

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He quietly led the league in rushing last yr. Has his situation improved, regressed, stayed the same? I don't really follow the Bengals, but see AJG doesn't have a timetable for return, but will definitely miss 2 games

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3 minutes ago, scheibler said:

He quietly led the league in rushing last yr. Has his situation improved, regressed, stayed the same? I don't really follow the Bengals, but see AJG doesn't have a timetable for return, but will definitely miss 2 games

He was 4th in rushing yards last year. Led the AFC though.

1. Ezekiel Elliott  DAL 1434
2. Saquon Barkley  NYG 1307
3. Todd Gurley  LAR 1251
4. Joe Mixon  CIN 1168
5. Chris Carson  SEA 1151
6. Christian McCaffrey  CAR 1098
7. Derrick Henry  TEN 1059
8. Adrian Peterson  WAS 1042
9. Phillip Lindsay  DEN 1037
10. Nick Chubb  CLE 996
Edited by smeeze
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11 hours ago, Nguvocity said:

 

Mixon will surprise a lot of people this year.

 

He finished pretty strong even with AJ green injured.Mixon also played injured last year. They also beefed up the line 

 

Remember Jeff Fisher/Gurley?

 

it was bad right ? Just like the Marvin Lewis/Mixon deal. Insert Zac Taylor, the guy has a chance to break into Tier 1.  I actually think only 1 of the “big 4” will finish in tier 1. 

They tried to beef up the line until their main addition, and best OL in the draft, went out for the season. They also lost their starting RG Boling to retirement. Adding Andre Smith and Michael Jordan are decent moves, but by no means 'beefing up'.

And ideally Taylor comes in and is Sean McVay, unleashing Mixon.. but it's not like Marvin Lewis didn't use him correctly or insufficiently. Sure, he didn't get as much passing work as he's capable of, but Lewis made Mixon one of the few legit 20 touches per week RBs in the NFL. We can't know for sure whether Taylor will give him the same workload.

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In my keeper league I've been debating Mixon vs Cook all offseason as they will both be the likely options when I pick.  Until this week I had Mixon over Cook.  AJ Green being down, the OL being injured, I am just getting a really bad vibe about this Bengals offense, whereas my only concern with Cook is durability.

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On 8/7/2019 at 9:29 AM, K197040 said:

 

I'll probably pass and take 2WR. 

Unless you are in full PPR that's tough. Even in half PPR taking 2 WRs is difficult if you are picking in the back end. Hell, even in full PPR it's a gamble. You're likely going to be left with guys like Montgomery, Coleman, Lindsay, Carson, Miller, and a few others as your RBs. That's brutal as your RB1. Even if you were to go something high risk like Cook and Gurley for instance you can still get WRs such as Cooks, Diggs, Lockett, and a few more in 3-4 round range. 

 

Mixon has more and more concerns for me but there's a few RBs I would take in the 9-12 range. Cook, Conner, and Gurley are all good options and if you are lucky DJ. 

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34 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Unless you are in full PPR that's tough. Even in half PPR taking 2 WRs is difficult if you are picking in the back end. Hell, even in full PPR it's a gamble. You're likely going to be left with guys like Montgomery, Coleman, Lindsay, Carson, Miller, and a few others as your RBs. That's brutal as your RB1. Even if you were to go something high risk like Cook and Gurley for instance you can still get WRs such as Cooks, Diggs, Lockett, and a few more in 3-4 round range. 

 

Mixon has more and more concerns for me but there's a few RBs I would take in the 9-12 range. Cook, Conner, and Gurley are all good options and if you are lucky DJ. 

 

I agree with this.  I'm only in 3 leagues (other than best ball) and they're all PPR.  So I guess I have on blinders when I respond on here sometimes.  t would definitely change the way I think about players/drafts if it was half or standard. 

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I've always been a huge believer in Mixon's talent but game flow looks brutal (win O/U in Vegas is 6 with juice on the under) and this franchise is a dumpster fire.  No player gets hurt more by poor game flow than the primary ball carrier.  There's a very real chance last season (1168 yards, 43 catches, 9 total TDs) is the best fantasy season you're ever going to get out of Joe Mixon, which is a shame.  If this guy were on a good team he'd be a top 3 pick.  At current price (late 1st), DND.

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2 hours ago, K197040 said:

 

I agree with this.  I'm only in 3 leagues (other than best ball) and they're all PPR.  So I guess I have on blinders when I respond on here sometimes.  t would definitely change the way I think about players/drafts if it was half or standard. 

This is a reason I’m fading Mixon.

 

I always look at a teams defense when drafting a back. If it’s terrible and their offense isn’t at least solid than it’s an easy DND. Bad game flow is one of the most irritating things in fantasy and I don’t want to deal with it. Unless your back is basically a WR out of the backfield you’ll be pulling you’re hair out. 

 

Mixon can’t catch well enough to offset the game flow. 

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16 hours ago, Nguvocity said:

They also beefed up the line 

The only new addition worth mentioning is RG Miller from the Bills, and he's nothing amazing. It's the same lame "beef" as last year, basically.

Still Mixon did well then, so I wouldn't put too much into it. Love as an RB2.

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13 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Mixon can’t catch well enough to offset the game flow. 

?  He caught 43 balls in 14 games. He's no McCaffrey but catching isn't an issue, esp with banged up/under-performing receivers.

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47 minutes ago, bomont said:

?  He caught 43 balls in 14 games. He's no McCaffrey but catching isn't an issue, esp with banged up/under-performing receivers.

A guy needs to be catching near 5 passes a game for me to be comfortable drafting someone who’s on a bad offense and bad defense. 

 

It doesn't really happen which is why I don’t draft such players. RBs on all around bad teams are awful to own. 

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Despite a terrible defense in 2018 (30th of 32 in points allowed) AND losing AJ Green for essentially the last 8 games of the season AND losing Andy Dalton for the last 5 games, Mixon stepped up his game in the season's second half:

--first 8 games with Green: 105 carries - 509 yards (4.85 YPC) - 4 TD's; 19 catches - 115 yards - 1 TD
--last 8 games without Green: 132 carries - 659 yards (4.99 YPC) - 4 TD's; 24 catches - 181 yards - 0 TD
(Green did play one game in the second half, but was injured in the 1st quarter after making 1 catch in the game)

Did the Bengals give the ball more to Mixon in the second half, because of a big defensive improvement? Not exactly...

--first 8 games for CIN defense: 237 points allowed
--last 8 games for CIN defense: 218 points allowed (so the defense was lousy across the board)

The way I see it, Mixon has shown ability to produce despite things working against him (the offense being diminished by losing Green & Dalton AND the defense being lousy). Now in 2019 they have a new head coach who was hired for his supposed offensive prowess. I wouldn't reach for Mixon but I see him as a top 10 back with the potential to be top 5. 

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On 8/8/2019 at 5:48 PM, bomont said:

?  He caught 43 balls in 14 games. He's no McCaffrey but catching isn't an issue, esp with banged up/under-performing receivers.

Mixon is one of the best receiving backs in the league, and I expect that to be on showcase this year. Just watch his film from college. He's a crazy route runner and has great hands. Last years staff utilized him more as a receiver but didn't necessarily do a great job of getting him into space. I expect Zac Taylor to do this. I truly believe he'll catch 60+ balls this year. Probably isn't that crazy of a leap, given he caught 43 in 14 games last year.

I think along with his work in the passing game, he'll dominate goal-line work, and get around 250+ rushing attempts. Think he's in for a big year.

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On 8/8/2019 at 5:46 PM, bomont said:

The only new addition worth mentioning is RG Miller from the Bills, and he's nothing amazing. It's the same lame "beef" as last year, basically.

Still Mixon did well then, so I wouldn't put too much into it. Love as an RB2.

I think the Oline injuries are overblown. Jonah Williams' loss was disappointing because he's going to be a very good LT in this league, but they didn't have him last year. Clint Boling simply wasn't good last year and was only getting worse as his injuries piled up. John Miller is a clear upgrade from Alex Redmond, who started all last year but now provides depth. Former 2018 1st rounder Billy Price is getting healthy, but Trey Hopkins actually played well in limited time last year and is battling him. Cordy Glenn is back to his natural LT position and is an above average starter. And with Bobby Hart, as undisciplined and bad as he looked in pass-pro at times last year, the new regime watched his film and felt that he was worth 3 years/$15m to stay. He's a pretty strong run blocker so I'm interested to see what happens there. The big question mark is at LG, but I actually was high on Michael Jordan, the All-American guard they got in the 4th. I'm hoping he can win the job because he has big upside.

 

I just think this line, if anything, is a little better this year and could take a bigger leap depending on how guys like Michael Jordan and Billy Price develop. It's definitely not worse, the offense scheme should be better and more modern, and Mixon averaged 4.9 ypc behind last years line.

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8 minutes ago, USWAY said:

I think the Oline injuries are overblown. Jonah Williams' loss was disappointing because he's going to be a very good LT in this league, but they didn't have him last year. Clint Boling simply wasn't good last year and was only getting worse as his injuries piled up. John Miller is a clear upgrade from Alex Redmond, who started all last year but now provides depth. Former 2018 1st rounder Billy Price is getting healthy, but Trey Hopkins actually played well in limited time last year and is battling him. Cordy Glenn is back to his natural LT position and is an above average starter. And with Bobby Hart, as undisciplined and bad as he looked in pass-pro at times last year, the new regime watched his film and felt that he was worth 3 years/$15m to stay. He's a pretty strong run blocker so I'm interested to see what happens there. The big question mark is at LG, but I actually was high on Michael Jordan, the All-American guard they got in the 4th. I'm hoping he can win the job because he has big upside.

 

I just think this line, if anything, is a little better this year and could take a bigger leap depending on how guys like Michael Jordan and Billy Price develop. It's definitely not worse, the offense scheme should be better and more modern, and Mixon averaged 4.9 ypc behind last years line.

 

Good post. 

The fact is that elite RBs like Saquon and to a lesser extent Mixon can be great without a high end Oline. 
 

Mixon was really good last year behind a bad oline, without Dalton for 5 games, without AJ Green for half the season. Teams could come in and just try to shut down the Bengals only legit weapon and he still put up nearly 1500 yards, 9TDs and 43 receptions. 

So it's not like he is going from the Chiefs offense to a disaster and we have to speculate whether he can succeed in a bad offense. We already know that if things go south Mixon will still be really good. Now imagine if the Bengals offense with a young, innovative offensive minded HC turns things around? Mixon could be a top 4 RB this year.

When I am drafting guys I want guys with decent floors and really high upside. Mixon is exactly that type of player. 

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Reminds me of the old Frank Gore years between 2007-2009.  He was a beast with top 5 NFL talent at the time but he played on some mediocre teams with very little talent around him and it showed.

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7 minutes ago, scheibler said:

His schedule looks brutal

They play the AFC East, NFC West, and the Raiders and the Jags on top of their 6 DIV games. I don't really see those opponents as a murderers row of front 7 talent. They play the Dolphins champ week too, which may be the worst team in football with an awful front 7. 

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