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Antonio Brown 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

Recent developments in AB's employment status, along with the continued inability of some users to keep their comments within the site guidelines, have forced us to lock this thread yet again.  If circumstances warrant, we will reopen.

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36 minutes ago, SportsBrain said:

You must have drafted AB, that’s what normally happens on these forums.

 

Ha... no, I traded for him.
Got him for next to nothing, because guys like you want dudes like Evans & Allen -- even though they are more expensive and arguably just as risky.

As for Kittle, there were quite a few circumstances that led to his 'breakout' -- a dearth of receiving options and awful QB play at the top of the list.
If you're counting on him to repeat, I'd say there's a high probability of a letdown. There's no way in hell I'd take him over Antonio Brown. 

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Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, AirForceOne said:

 

Ha... no, I traded for him.
Got him for next to nothing, because guys like you want dudes like Evans & Allen -- even though they are more expensive and arguably just as risky.

As for Kittle, there were quite a few circumstances that led to his 'breakout' -- a dearth of receiving options and awful QB play at the top of the list.
If you're counting on him to repeat, I'd say there's a high probability of a letdown. There's no way in hell I'd take him over Antonio Brown. 

 

Just nothing you say makes sense to be honest, and I figured you had him since you are clearly biased. 

 

As for your statements- Allen and Evans are all going in the same range, so nope not more expensive they are the same cost.  Care to explain how they are also just as risky? I see Evans being younger, and having 5 straight seasons of 1000+ yards and now also having a better coach. He’s also never hurt and drama free. Allen was injury prone for a bit, but is coming off 2 straight seasons of 95+ catches/1100+ yards with 0 games missed, is younger, and in a much better offense and much better QB. 

 

As for Kittle, lack of receiving depth you say last year- so you think that now seems to be fixed this year somehow with Pettis and Goodwin as their 1/2? Could arguably be the worst starting receiver combo in the league, and Pettis has been horrible all preseason and the staff has said they don’t even know if he deserves the starting spot. Kittle is clearly their best option, and you could very well argue that Jimmy G coming back should up his TD total(and most understand that 5tds In 80+/1300+ yards is fluky), even if his yards do come slightly down. 

 

So again, I don’t understand your reasoning  

 

Edited by SportsBrain

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A few key points:
Winston and Carr's career trajectory to this point have been nearly opposite. Carr has improved each year, Winston has gotten worse. A better coach? That's debatable. Arians offenses have clicked when he's had a good QB. Carson Palmer. Big Ben. Anrdew Luck. Winston is not close to those guys, and they brought in Blaine Gabbert (who already knows Arians' system) as a backup. What's Evans' stat line going to look like with Gabbert at QB? Evans is sharing targets with breakout candidates Godwin and OJ Howard, where Brown is the unquestioned focal point of the offense.

Allen, while he doesn't have the QB issues, he's on a clear decline. Maybe the injuries he sustained early in his career are catching up to him. Maybe the emergence of Mike Williams and Travis Benjamin have Rivers' spreading the ball around more. Henry Hunter is coming back this year, and there's a decent chance Allen finishes with under 1000 yards.


Meanwhile, AB is in great shape despite the drama, and still has a lot left in the tank. It's fair and reasonable to expect a slight drop off going from Big Ben to Carr, but there's no question Brown is by far the most talented player on that roster. He has very little competition for targets, and an ascending QB (career high completion percentage and yards last year).


And yes... I believe Pettis, Samuel and Goodwin are an improvement over Bourne, Trent Taylor and a 40yr old Pierre Garcon. 

 

It's an easy decision. 

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I'll also add that 1-2 weeks ago, Brown's ADP was in the 3rd round which was an absolute steal.
While it's rebounded a bit, I still see him as a substantial bargain. 

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, AirForceOne said:

A few key points:
Winston and Carr's career trajectory to this point have been nearly opposite. Carr has improved each year, Winston has gotten worse. A better coach? That's debatable. Arians offenses have clicked when he's had a good QB. Carson Palmer. Big Ben. Anrdew Luck. Winston is not close to those guys, and they brought in Blaine Gabbert (who already knows Arians' system) as a backup. What's Evans' stat line going to look like with Gabbert at QB? Evans is sharing targets with breakout candidates Godwin and OJ Howard, where Brown is the unquestioned focal point of the offense.

Allen, while he doesn't have the QB issues, he's on a clear decline. Maybe the injuries he sustained early in his career are catching up to him. Maybe the emergence of Mike Williams and Travis Benjamin have Rivers' spreading the ball around more. Henry Hunter is coming back this year, and there's a decent chance Allen finishes with under 1000 yards.


Meanwhile, AB is in great shape despite the drama, and still has a lot left in the tank. It's fair and reasonable to expect a slight drop off going from Big Ben to Carr, but there's no question Brown is by far the most talented player on that roster. He has very little competition for targets, and an ascending QB (career high completion percentage and yards last year).


And yes... I believe Pettis, Samuel and Goodwin are an improvement over Bourne, Trent Taylor and a 40yr old Pierre Garcon. 

 

It's an easy decision. 

 

Except Goodwin and Pettis both played 12 games last year, and were both terrible. Zero reports of either of them looking good at all this year, actually reports that Pettis is lost. And Samuel is a rookie- and we know most rookies don’t make impacts. Point is, Kittle was and still is clearly the best target on that team.  I don’t want to derail this thread though so I’ll drop out after this- but all I said is at his 21/22 overall ADP- which is what it’s up to again- I see a lot of red flags. The main being going from one of the best offense and long ball throwers to the worst. Would I be shocked if he still has a good season? Not at all, just saying for the risk adverse there are other options that worst case I don’t think he will outproduce by much, if at all. 

Edited by SportsBrain

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I doubt many people would take Kittle over Brown so its kind of a silly debate.

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1 hour ago, yanksman said:

I doubt many people would take Kittle over Brown so its kind of a silly debate.

Fantasy pros which is 107 experts combined has AB at 22 and Kittle at 25 so not sure what’s silly about it unless you’re going to say the consensus of 107 experts isn’t close at all. 

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AB always cared most about the individual glory, in a strange way it's hard to see a better environment for that than with the ever dysfunctional Jon Gruden Raiders. Carr can pepper him with as many targets as he can handle. I'm not saying he's out for a career year, but he could easily still be a top #5 WR.

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23 hours ago, SportsBrain said:

Fantasy pros which is 107 experts combined has AB at 22 and Kittle at 25 so not sure what’s silly about it unless you’re going to say the consensus of 107 experts isn’t close at all. 

lol, fantasy pros "experts"

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On 8/28/2019 at 4:34 PM, thebluntman said:

lol, fantasy pros "experts"

Fantasy Pros aggregates the rankings from various sources around the internet. A very small % of those 107 are actually affiliated with Fantasy Pros.  So you're essentially trashing every "expert" that has a large enough influence to be included in a group of 100.  In other words, you're trashing everyone who has a job covering fantasy football. 

 

With that said, no way I pick Kittle over AB.  

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Posted (edited)

I picked Hopkins round 1 with the 4th pick, and then got Antonio in that late 2nd round position. Running backs are weak on my team but I'm hoping Hopkins and Antonio will finish top 3 WR in fantasy.

 

The hate Antonio is getting should not take away from his talent level, he's still elite talent even with the antics. If Derek Carr can get back to his 2015-2016 self I see no reason for AB not to be a top 10 player.

Edited by greatestmetfan

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10 hours ago, Magman said:

Fantasy Pros aggregates the rankings from various sources around the internet. A very small % of those 107 are actually affiliated with Fantasy Pros.  So you're essentially trashing every "expert" that has a large enough influence to be included in a group of 100.  In other words, you're trashing everyone who has a job covering fantasy football. 

 

With that said, no way I pick Kittle over AB.  

i still stand by my statement.  just because it's someones profession to make certain "claims"  doesn't mean they are qualified to or have insight, expertise.  this is in every profession all the way up to doctors and lawyers...but anyways keep listening to them

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11 hours ago, Magman said:

Fantasy Pros aggregates the rankings from various sources around the internet. A very small % of those 107 are actually affiliated with Fantasy Pros.  So you're essentially trashing every "expert" that has a large enough influence to be included in a group of 100.  In other words, you're trashing everyone who has a job covering fantasy football. 

 

With that said, no way I pick Kittle over AB.  

You’re better off flipping a coin 

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One reason Kittle is ranked above AB is that there are less quality TE than WR. I think a lot of the analysts become obsessed with positions that aren't that deep.

 

For me I'd take AB though. But if Kittle was the guy I got I wouldn't be upset. 

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1 hour ago, greatestmetfan said:

I picked Hopkins round 1 with the 4th pick, and then got Antonio in that late 2nd round position. Running backs are weak on my team but I'm hoping Hopkins and Antonio will finish top 3 WR in fantasy.

 

The hate Antonio is getting should not take away from his talent level, he's still elite talent even with the antics. If Derek Carr can get back to his 2015-2016 self I see no reason for AB not to be a top 10 player.

 

Did the same then came back with Fournette and Ingram early Rd 3 late rd 4 (12 team). What RBs did you get?

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10 minutes ago, liammo29 said:

 

Did the same then came back with Fournette and Ingram early Rd 3 late rd 4 (12 team). What RBs did you get?

I missed Fournette by two picks, but got Kerryon Johnson in the 3rd and then Marlon Mack late in the 4th. I basically stacked up on best RB available for the next couple of rounds as well adding Tarik Cohen, and Kenyan Drake. 

I was really hoping Fournette would fall to me but Kerryon Johsnon was a target of mine anyway. I think the Hopkins AB combo can be deadly.

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I got him at the 24/25 turn in a 12 team .5 PPR redraft.  I thought there was an slim chance he made it to me predraft with all his shenanigans so far, but didn't really expect it to happen.  Needless to say that at this price I'm more than happy to roster him.  I do think there is real risk with AB this season.  New team, new system, new coach, new QB, new EVERYTHING (helmet too!) so it's fair to wonder if he is the same player outside of Pittsburgh.  I think he'll be fine, but transitions to new teams aren't always seamless. 

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The risk for AB is already baked into his ADP so if you can get him around where he is being drafted and not reach for him, it seems like a high upside risky player worth the gamble since you're already getting some of the gambler's discount baked into the price. Its different than the high risk players where their ADP is still sitting near their ceilings.  

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15 minutes ago, TuesdaymorningQB said:

The risk for AB is already baked into his ADP  

 

Seems like this type of statement should be used in the Josh Gordon thread :lol:

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1 hour ago, greatestmetfan said:

I missed Fournette by two picks, but got Kerryon Johnson in the 3rd and then Marlon Mack late in the 4th. I basically stacked up on best RB available for the next couple of rounds as well adding Tarik Cohen, and Kenyan Drake. 

I was really hoping Fournette would fall to me but Kerryon Johsnon was a target of mine anyway. I think the Hopkins AB combo can be deadly.

 

Grabbed Hopkins-AB as well. then went 3/4/5 Josh Jacbos/Woods/Michel 12 Team 1 PPR. This combo could pay off. 

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Posted (edited)

An ego maniac wide receiver pissed at his ex team for giving him up and wanting to prove that he's even better without them. Add that to Gruden being the type of guy to suck off AB and tell Carr to give him as many targets as possible. Id be shocked if he doesn't end up as overall WR4 or higher by years end.. Give me all of this drama queen

Edited by NyMetsfan5
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I think the drop in ranking is appropriate, but I mean if he is out there this is still Antonio Freaking Brown. If he plays all 16 games I can't see him falling below a top 15 WR. Derek Carr might be a goon but he is more than capable of supporting a WR1.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, griffin727 said:

I think the drop in ranking is appropriate, but I mean if he is out there this is still Antonio Freaking Brown. If he plays all 16 games I can't see him falling below a top 15 WR. Derek Carr might be a goon but he is more than capable of supporting a WR1.

lmao If he plays 16 games he'd need to be in a wheelchair to be less than WR8 overall. I'm of the opinion he made Ben and the team look good not the other way around like how I think bell was more the product of that team. Abs talent transfers to any team at an elite level

Edited by NyMetsfan5
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15 hours ago, Magman said:

Fantasy Pros aggregates the rankings from various sources around the internet. A very small % of those 107 are actually affiliated with Fantasy Pros.  So you're essentially trashing every "expert" that has a large enough influence to be included in a group of 100.  In other words, you're trashing everyone who has a job covering fantasy football. 

 

With that said, no way I pick Kittle over AB.  

I thought the same as him, didn't know what you said.. have a better one for us here? also, AB def over kittle imo. hes prob worth a late 2nd in my opinion. right after evans and keenan

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Got him late in the fourth in a 12 team standard money league tonight,

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