Joe Odam

George Kittle 2019 Outlook

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His 2018 season ended with more accomplishments than you might initially realize...all with nobodies at QB.

 

-Most receiving yard ever in a season for a TE

-Most YAC in the NFL in 2018. First ever TE to do so. 

-Most YAC by a TE ever

-49er's franchise record for yards in a season by a TE ever (only Rice and Owens had more receiving yards from ANY 49er)

-PFF overall grade of 89.8. Highest of all TE's (for those of you that put stock in PFF's metrics)

-2018 second team all pro (behind only Kelce as first teamer)

-2nd highest yards per route run behind only Julio Jones 

-Highest yards per reception among TE's in 2018

-Most avoided tackles by a TE in 2018

 

Where do you see his ADP in 2019? I personally, strongly feel he's still an ascending talent with an improving situation. I realize some prefer to stream TE's but I'm in the camp that absolutely values the reliable weekly advantage the "big 3" TE's provide and would rather spend high draft capital on one of them than a #2rb. I will gladly start looking at him as early as the end of round 2 in a 10-12 teamer. 

 

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1 hour ago, LuckBox1 said:

Rock solid TE1.

I'm not aware on anyone arguing against him being a rock solid TE1.....the better debate is whether or not he can be THE TE1 in 2019

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2 hours ago, Joe Odam said:

His 2018 season ended with more accomplishments than you might initially realize...all with nobodies at QB.

 

-Most receiving yard ever in a season for a TE

-Most YAC in the NFL in 2018. First ever TE to do so. 

-Most YAC by a TE ever

-49er's franchise record for yards in a season by a TE ever (only Rice and Owens had more receiving yards from ANY 49er)

-PFF overall grade of 89.8. Highest of all TE's (for those of you that put stock in PFF's metrics)

-2018 second team all pro (behind only Kelce as first teamer)

-2nd highest yards per route run behind only Julio Jones 

-Highest yards per reception among TE's in 2018

-Most avoided tackles by a TE in 2018

 

Where do you see his ADP in 2019? I personally, strongly feel he's still an ascending talent with an improving situation. I realize some prefer to stream TE's but I'm in the camp that absolutely values the reliable weekly advantage the "big 3" TE's provide and would rather spend high draft capital on one of them than a #2rb. I will gladly start looking at him as early as the end of round 2 in a 10-12 teamer. 

 

I see him as a Round 3 guy...but if you're go for him in late Round 2 as you don't think you can get him with your upcoming Round 3 pick, then I don't have an issue with that. I prefer Kelce and Ertz over Kittle, but I think he will be a very productive pick in 2019. 

 

He had a pretty nice connection with Jimmy G in their games together so far. At the tail end of their time together in 2017, plus last year's game, these were his numbers with Jimmy G at QB...

 

Week 16 2017: 3 -43 - 1

Week 17 2017: 4 - 100 - 0

Week 1 2018: 5 - 90 - 0

Week 2 2018: 2 - 22 - 0

Week 3 2018: 5 - 79 - 0 (and 2-point conversion; all the catches were from Jimmy G passes, before he got injured in this game)

 

One dud yes, but four games you would be happy to have him in your lineup. 

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3 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 

I see him as a Round 3 guy...but if you're go for him in late Round 2 as you don't think you can get him with your upcoming Round 3 pick, then I don't have an issue with that. I prefer Kelce and Ertz over Kittle, but I think he will be a very productive pick in 2019. 

 

He had a pretty nice connection with Jimmy G in their games together so far. At the tail end of their time together in 2017, plus last year's game, these were his numbers with Jimmy G at QB...

 

Week 16 2017: 3 -43 - 1

Week 17 2017: 4 - 100 - 0

Week 1 2018: 5 - 90 - 0

Week 2 2018: 2 - 22 - 0

Week 3 2018: 5 - 79 - 0 (and 2-point conversion; all the catches were from Jimmy G passes, before he got injured in this game)

 

One dud yes, but four games you would be happy to have him in your lineup. 

I'm of the idea that he will be featured MORE next year than this year. An offseason for Shanny to scheme the offense around him as the first read will likely yield an increase in both receptions and TD's, even if that comes with a reduction in yardage. I see him moving into the first tier of TE as an equal to Kelce and Ertz, rather than a miniature version of them.

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1 minute ago, Joe Odam said:

I'm of the idea that he will be featured MORE next year than this year. An offseason for Shanny to scheme the offense around him as the first read will likely yield an increase in both receptions and TD's, even if that comes with a reduction in yardage. I see him moving into the first tier of TE as an equal to Kelce and Ertz, rather than a miniature version of them.

 

I agree that his stats with Jimmy G will increase over what they were too (and they were good already). As the season developed, Shanahan knew he had a great weapon in Kittle, and it's likely he gameplanned for the Mullens/Beathard duo to get the ball to him. With an offseason as you mention, I believe he can indeed improve. 

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1 minute ago, Corleone said:

 

I agree that his stats with Jimmy G will increase over what they were too (and they were good already). As the season developed, Shanahan knew he had a great weapon in Kittle, and it's likely he gameplanned for the Mullens/Beathard duo to get the ball to him. With an offseason as you mention, I believe he can indeed improve. 

I have him in one tier with Kelce and Ertz, except those guys have proved themselves multiple seasons.

 

As far as ADP, all three should go end of second early third. If you happen to pick #10-12, you may see all three available at your second pick and gone at your third, so that also means that IF you insist on having them, you may need to reach for them.

 

I expect Kelce to be the first of these three, and Ertz/Kittle 2/3. Kittle may last until 30, but I doubt past that.

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I'm still miffed he didn't set the single game record for receiving yards for a TE. 5 yards away at halftime and didn't see the ball once in the 2nd half.

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i picked him up as a freeagent. no one drafted him. i drafted oj howard in a dynasty league and then picked up kittle after our draft for backup purposes. oj is good, but kittle is top 3. i'm from iowa and watched him threw his college career. this kid has got it. he's smart. has guts. and skill. shanny loves him. and jimmy will use him like gronk. gronk is a beast, but dumb. not a smart football player, just damn big and tough....but dumb as a box of rocks. not kittle he is a very very smart football mind as well as a very hard working blue collar guy. text book te. draft him.

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Wanted him as the bear te target in the draft, Hawkeye was right there with me, but Pace reached on Shaheen...what do you do.

Owned him last year on every team, but do not think there is much room to improve the stat line...all depends on the other potential targets they add from here.

If they rest with Mathews as their  only add...another big season is coming.

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not many good WR left in free agency, and the niners do not have a big red zone target. they'll draft one or more WRs, but not in the first round unless they trade back, and typically rookie WRs take a while to get up to speed.

coleman/mckinnon will probably eat some of his receptions but he may be more of a presence in the end zone. can't see him doing much worse than the past season, but he may be better...

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I avoided the guy because he looked like an injury just waiting to happen. *I felt like he played waaay out of control at times, and landed/was tackeled awkwardly...a lot :shrug:

Totally bummed I didn't buy in when I had the chance.

Definitely in the top tier discussion with: Kelce and Ertz

 

Edited by FollowTheLeader

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Some interesting claims besides the analysis; but also an interesting stat I missed: Kittle was the 2018 yac leader (ahead of CMC, Barkley and White).

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On 1/5/2019 at 1:00 AM, not an nfl scout said:

gronk is a beast, but dumb. not a smart football player, just damn big and tough....but dumb as a box of rocks.

spacer.png

Not a smart football player? For shame!

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Regression to the norm people. Despite a good year, I can just see people in December scratching their heads:  "he had a better QB, everything was primed to do even better this year! How could this be??"  

I like him but he isn't coming anywhere near reproducing - never mind PASSING - last year's incredible feat. He will be overpriced and overbid by someone in our league. 

Edited by bomont
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1 hour ago, bomont said:

Regression to the norm people. Despite a good year, I can just see people in December scratching their heads:  "he had a better QB, everything was primed to do even better this year! How could this be??"  

I like him but he isn't coming anywhere near reproducing - never mind PASSING - last year's incredible feat. He will be overpriced and overbid by someone in our league. 

 

Regression beliefs and Stat extrapolation is for nerds! 

 

Sometimes football players are just badasses ready to break out. 

 

Sorry, I've been watching a lot of Cobra Kai. I'm not calling anyone a nerd. Unless you're not down with Coors Banquet... Then yeah, I mean it then. 

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On 6/15/2019 at 4:55 AM, bomont said:

Regression to the norm people. Despite a good year, I can just see people in December scratching their heads:  "he had a better QB, everything was primed to do even better this year! How could this be??"  

I like him but he isn't coming anywhere near reproducing - never mind PASSING - last year's incredible feat. He will be overpriced and overbid by someone in our league. 

His YAC might be the most misleading stat in the NFL last season. Easy regression candidate. Still a nice player but will be overdrafted.

Edited by smeeze
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I'm only down with Coors Banquet if its said aloud in Sam Elliott's voice. 

 

 

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He was a great first week waiver wire grab for me last year. I'm looking for other players like that this year, and every year. Really hard to pay a third round pick for him, though. And I think Pettis is a prime candidate to rise up in this offense.

Edited by dropshadows

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This is a tough call for me.  Kittle's going to be pricey.  But you have to spend your money on something.  He's really good.

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