Flyman75

Devonta Freeman 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

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8 minutes ago, devaster said:

Bucs were inept of offense and couldn't run the ball under Koetter and now Koetter is the OC in Atlanta. Coincidence? I think not. Dude is hot garbage as an OC.

 

You guys are overreacting alot...i get that we arent getting rb1 production and if you are in standard i can understand but otherwise he is being used and is pretty much the main guy on this team...i am thrilled he got me 14 points this week...am i disappointed that we didnt get a TD? of course but at least its not a dud..if can give me this every week i would be thrilled...as for the running yards....were you expecting alot vs ten when the team is behind? I mean seriously its not going to happen especially when the offense is having trouble keeping drives going

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If he gets Goalline work he'll be fine but every game Ito has played he's been the goalline back. RBS are a disaster this year not like theres really better options. You have the big 4, chubb and cook as safe options. After that you have high usage RBs like Fournette and Kerryon (has 21 and 28 touches since Anderson got cut). After that every RB is flawed, he's still the lead back in one of the most talented offenses in the NFL although they have not performed like one of the top offenses. I guess i'll hold because there really arent better options outside of the 8 guys I just listed.

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I actually think the arrow is pointing up after seeing all the passing game usage, but that's more a function of his stock having been so low than anything else.  It's going to be interesting to see what happens with the Falcons the rest of the year.  I hate to say that their season is over, but it looks like it probably is.  How many of these games can they win?

at Houston
at Arizona
Rams
Seattle
at New Orleans

They'll beat Arizona, obviously, but they'll be dogs in all the other games and even if they knick one of those that puts them at 3-6.  A team with nothing to play for can tend to make some interesting personnel moves.

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1 hour ago, crizza0309 said:

If he gets Goalline work he'll be fine but every game Ito has played he's been the goalline back. RBS are a disaster this year not like theres really better options. You have the big 4, chubb and cook as safe options. After that you have high usage RBs like Fournette and Kerryon (has 21 and 28 touches since Anderson got cut). After that every RB is flawed, he's still the lead back in one of the most talented offenses in the NFL although they have not performed like one of the top offenses. I guess i'll hold because there really arent better options outside of the 8 guys I just listed.

Doesn't seem to me that Ito is the GL back. Ito has 2 carries inside the 10, Freeman has 1. Ito has the only GL TD but it's not like they subbed Freeman out at the GL, Ito just happened to be in the game already and just got them down to the 1 with a 10 yard carry. Quite natural that he should finish the drive with the TD. Seems to me Atlanta uses them rather interchangeably. Either can play on any down and run or catch. But Freeman out-touches Ito at a 3.5 to 1 rate (64/18).

Freeman's #1 problem is the whole offense has been trash. #2 problem is Dirk Koetter is pass happy. Last time Koetter was Atlanta OC (2012-14) they were an average 27th in the league in rush attempts and 5th in pass attempts. Wish I had taken that into account before burning the #30 overall pick on him but that's spilt milk.

ROS schedule doesn't offer a lot of hope either. I'm hoping Freeman manages to have a decent game next week vs Houston and then a big game in two weeks vs Arizona. If that scenario happens I'll try to sell high then. If it doesn't, ugh.

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I heard in a clip on the radio (92.9 The Game) this morning, DQ talking about the running game heading into the Texans matchup. He was talking about establishing the running game with Freeman and Ito. One thing of significant note was how he specifically mentioned Ito's goal-line vision and how he's really good inside the 20. So, I don't believe it is something people are imagining up. Quinn is talking about it and people who have watched the games have seen exactly that. Ito is in the game for a hell of a lot of time when they get in the redzone. So, Freeman's upside could become capped. It's just something to watch out for going forward. Going back to training camp Ito has been talked up by the coaching staff. They love the guy.

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11 hours ago, FitzMagic said:

I heard in a clip on the radio (92.9 The Game) this morning, DQ talking about the running game heading into the Texans matchup. He was talking about establishing the running game with Freeman and Ito. One thing of significant note was how he specifically mentioned Ito's goal-line vision and how he's really good inside the 20. So, I don't believe it is something people are imagining up. Quinn is talking about it and people who have watched the games have seen exactly that. Ito is in the game for a hell of a lot of time when they get in the redzone. So, Freeman's upside could become capped. It's just something to watch out for going forward. Going back to training camp Ito has been talked up by the coaching staff. They love the guy.

I owned Freeman, Coleman, and Ito at certain points last year.  If I remember right they often brought in Ito instead of Coleman in the red zone, at least enough that it was frustrating to start Coleman.    

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This is the end. 54% of snaps, poor rushing offense, low volume. Always down. Not getting 100% of goal line carries.

 

I'm doing everything I can to sell him this week. People will say wait for next week after he plays the Cardinals, but what if he does poorly. If it's 50-50 and he doesn't get a TD vs Cardinals, his trade value is shot

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4 minutes ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

This is the end. 54% of snaps, poor rushing offense, low volume. Always down. Not getting 100% of goal line carries.

 

I'm doing everything I can to sell him this week. People will say wait for next week after he plays the Cardinals, but what if he does poorly. If it's 50-50 and he doesn't get a TD vs Cardinals, his trade value is shot

He has scored 18 points in my PPR league the last 2 weeks but that's mainly because of his receptions.  He isn't doing anything on the ground.  If he doesn't break out next week vs. the Cardinals, he never will.  He'll still be a useful flex or bye week filler in PPR but he isn't shaping to be the high end rb2 he was drafted as.

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I’m a Falcons fans and Ito Smith has looked better the last two years .

 

I traded Freeman for Fournette a few weeks ago . I was shocked I was offered it .

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Remarkably, Freeman is RB20 in PPR as of this moment, although on a per game basis that's a couple spots lower because of a bye to K. Johnson, injury to Barkley, etc.  But in any event, he's somehow been a back-end RB2.  I say this is remarkable because he's been shockingly poor yet has been propped up by some garbage-fueled dump-offs by his pitiful squad this season.  (Only seven RBs have more receptions than Freeman: bellcows McCaffrey, Bell, Kamara, and David Johnson, glorified WRs who line up in the backfield Thompson and White, and Ekeler.)

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i dont see any reason for this to stop...you guys can beat the rushing yard stat up all you want but in ppr i am fine compared to the guy who drafted leveon at pick 1....it was a tough defense this week and if you thought he was putting up big rushing numbers your crazy....the passing yards make him more relevant than alot of rbs compared to where he was drafted

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1 minute ago, Power-O said:

i dont see any reason for this to stop...you guys can beat the rushing yard stat up all you want but in ppr i am fine compared to the guy who drafted leveon at pick 1....it was a tough defense this week and if you thought he was putting up big rushing numbers your crazy....the passing yards make him more relevant than alot of rbs compared to where he was drafted

 

Simple. They don't go down 20 points, leading to garbage time dumpoffs. Freeman getes 10 carries for 30 yards and 2 receptions for 15 yards. Then what?

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4 minutes ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

 

Simple. They don't go down 20 points, leading to garbage time dumpoffs. Freeman getes 10 carries for 30 yards and 2 receptions for 15 yards. Then what?

 

doubt that is ever happening with this defense....but if it did he would likely have more attempts and yards...but what is going to change? the defense is all of a sudden going to be a top 5 unit this week? lol he is relevant in all the games despite ito filling in when he needs a breather....he is ppr gold right now...

Edited by Power-O

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27 minutes ago, Power-O said:

i dont see any reason for this to stop...you guys can beat the rushing yard stat up all you want but in ppr i am fine compared to the guy who drafted leveon at pick 1....it was a tough defense this week and if you thought he was putting up big rushing numbers your crazy....the passing yards make him more relevant than alot of rbs compared to where he was drafted

You really tryin to polish this turd.  I believe he’s still got it but his situation is abysmal.  Had an opportunity to deal him earlier in the year and man do I wish I would have clicked “accept”.  He’s got zero very little value now.  

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1 minute ago, OmegaRed88 said:

You really tryin to polish this turd.  I believe he’s still got it but his situation is abysmal.  Had an opportunity to deal him earlier in the year and man do I wish I would have clicked “accept”.  He’s got zero very little value now.  

 

15 points this week, 14 last week? how is that bad at all...plz explain

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10 and 13 in my league.  He’s averaging what 2.5 carry?  Even if he continues this receiving production, which I doubt, he isn’t producing where you drafted him to.  1 or 2 more stinkers and you’ll probably be dropping him lol.

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Just now, OmegaRed88 said:

10 and 13 in my league.  He’s averaging what 2.5 carry?  Even if he continues this receiving production, which I doubt, he isn’t producing where you drafted him to.  1 or 2 more stinkers and you’ll probably be dropping him lol.

Lol ruthless. 8 man league? That’s the only way this could be remotely logical. 

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2 minutes ago, kidsgotsoul said:

I get all the fire alarms but I'd love to hear the RB situations of these teams trying to deal him.

 

Freeman is my 4th RB but that's not the point.

 

The point is Freeman has a high chance of regressing in receptions and does not have the TD upside to compensate. He's an mid rb3 who might be low rb2 value rn. Sell while it's high 

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The whole Falcons running game is screwed up right now. But Freeman has 70 touches over 5 weeks, to Ito’s 29. So the back to own is Freeman, and he’s averaged 13.50 points over the last three weeks in my 1/2 ppr league...and that’s with just one TD. The rushing totals haven’t been good, outside of week 3, but he’s still been a productive fantasy RB. 

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10 with 5 man bench.  Stinkers meaning like 5ish points a a game.  Damn straight he’d be droppable.  And he wouldn’t be gettin picked up either

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43 minutes ago, Power-O said:

i dont see any reason for this to stop...you guys can beat the rushing yard stat up all you want but in ppr i am fine compared to the guy who drafted leveon at pick 1....it was a tough defense this week and if you thought he was putting up big rushing numbers your crazy....the passing yards make him more relevant than alot of rbs compared to where he was drafted

 

He looks terrible and is getting saved in PPR by dump offs.  He is both inefficient and isn’t receiving volume.

He may be passable now but it’ll eventually catch up to him.

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3 minutes ago, OmegaRed88 said:

10 and 13 in my league.  He’s averaging what 2.5 carry?  Even if he continues this receiving production, which I doubt, he isn’t producing where you drafted him to.  1 or 2 more stinkers and you’ll probably be dropping him lol.

 

Dropping for who at this point in the season? He wouldn’t be a drop in my 12-team with 7-man benches. And if he was dropped, someone would empty their faab for him. 

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1 minute ago, OmegaRed88 said:

10 with 5 man bench.  Stinkers meaning like 5ish points a a game.  Damn straight he’d be droppable.  And he wouldn’t be gettin picked up either

As long as he has at least a 60-40 carry advantage, he's serviceable as a bye week filler even in standard leagues.  I have a feeling that the rushing td's are coming.  I wouldn't drop him yet even in shallow leagues.  See how he does vs. Arizona first.

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