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Devonta Freeman 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

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4 hours ago, Experienced Rookie said:

I'm not scared off by a missed season injury that the player has put behind him. Is that the only knock? That he's been hurt? Cause 2 years ago wasn't really bad. #15 RB, and now Coleman is gone. 

 

Seems people dont have these same problems with players like Dalvin Cook. He goes early 2nd, and what has he ever done besides sit on IR constantly? 

 

Similar take for Fournette. How in the blue hell does anyone take him over Freeman? 

I think freeman was more a product of Kyle shannahan than him actually being a great rb. I'd rather take fournette than freeman but I totally understand why you think that's crazy. I kind of do too 

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17 hours ago, Experienced Rookie said:

I keep trying to find the knocks that keep Freeman's ADP depressed. 

Hes not old. He's not worn down. He hasn't been healthy, but he is now. 

 

Plays for a top 10 offense. Plays all 3 downs. Great receiver. High TD upside. Very little competition. History of top production. 

 

A player with this profile should be a late 1st/early 2nd. 

 

the offense is solid, the offensive line is even more solid, and the defense is healthy.

if freeman plays 16 games, we're looking at 1000-1200 yards rushing, 400-600 yards receiving, 70-95 targets, 55-75 receptions, and double-digit TDs.

RB3 to RB6 range.

 

15 hours ago, Experienced Rookie said:

I'm not scared off by a missed season injury that the player has put behind him. Is that the only knock? That he's been hurt? Cause 2 years ago wasn't really bad. #15 RB, and now Coleman is gone. 

 

Seems people dont have these same problems with players like Dalvin Cook. He goes early 2nd, and what has he ever done besides sit on IR constantly? 

 

Similar take for Fournette. How in the blue hell does anyone take him over Freeman? 

 

like @lolcopter poignantly pointed out, it's a matter of burn degree and recency bias: people who drafted freeman in 2017 (late round 1, early round 2) were expecting him to break 1200 yards ru/re and in his 14 games he failed to do so. owners who drafted him in 2018 in early round 2 expected something and got 14 yards rushing.

as for fournette, perhaps it's the same situation (burn degree and recency), with all of the ex-freeman owners drafting fournette (and all of the ex-fournette owners drafting freeman?). people do have these issues with dalvin cook, another RB who should easily be in the top 10 and push for top 6 if he plays all 16 games. for me, i have way more faith in the atlanta offense and atlanta offensive line than minnesota's (and freeman in the 3rd seems like a better deal than cook in the early 2nd).

with cook, freeman, fournette, and now even gurley, it's all a guessing game of Who will stay healthy the longest?, so the skill in drafting is mitigated by luck. true, any player (especially RBs) can get hurt, but these 3 (now 4) have the increased hurt factor. sucks. some real talent that we'd all like to see set loose. so it's value and upside and economics: if freeman can earn the numbers cook can, and he's one round later, i'd sooner take OBJ or mixon or MThomas in that early round 2 spot and then pick up freeman in round 3. in mocks, freeman is going as early as round 2 and as late as round 4. in auction, $35+/-.

10 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

I think freeman was more a product of Kyle shannahan than him actually being a great rb. I'd rather take fournette than freeman but I totally understand why you think that's crazy. I kind of do too 

 

freeman was crazy good at FSU, like cook. the shannahan factor certainly doesn't hurt, but freeman has wheels, moves, and is fearless (with this latter trait one of the reasons he's banged up so much in the NFL). considering freeman's hands and the offense he's on, i'd say freeman is the clear lock over fournette in PPR. he could push for 100 targets if he's on the field for 16 games.

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On 5/31/2019 at 9:20 AM, jmausen said:

 

"Ollison tested like an 11th-percentile athlete at the Combine, running a 4.58 with a measly 29.5-inch vertical, 114-inch broad, and horrific 7.53 three-cone. Better suited as an undrafted free agent, Ollison is a reach in the fifth."

Give the rookie time to develop. Special teams maybe?

 

Ollison is no reach in the 5th. Forget his combine stats and watch his film.

I like Devonta to reach 1000 yards rushing and another 400 receiving. I know some are projecting a bit more than this based on way more carries, but I feel with Devonta the Falcons will want to keep his carries in check with all their passing weapons. The GM recently talked glowingly of possibly having Devonta back, however, he is getting a little older and his numbers have been regressing. His best season saw him get 265 carries, and I certainly don't think we'd see anything near that number now.

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3 hours ago, Jags02 said:

 

Ollison is no reach in the 5th. Forget his combine stats and watch his film.

.

 

Right. Sometimes those burst scores and percentile athletes junk drive me crazy. They have all this data then just pick and choose what they want to say why someone is bad or good. 

"He ran a bad 40 but his agility score was great so that's why hes gonna be a great RB and it has to do with him being on my fantasy team"

I'm sure emmit smith would of been just awful in all those advance metrics.

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6 hours ago, Jags02 said:

 

Ollison is no reach in the 5th. Forget his combine stats and watch his film.

I like Devonta to reach 1000 yards rushing and another 400 receiving. I know some are projecting a bit more than this based on way more carries, but I feel with Devonta the Falcons will want to keep his carries in check with all their passing weapons. The GM recently talked glowingly of possibly having Devonta back, however, he is getting a little older and his numbers have been regressing. His best season saw him get 265 carries, and I certainly don't think we'd see anything near that number now.

 

His numbers regressed because he missed all of 2018. He had like 14 carries and 5 receptions and the game wasn't even over yet. 

 

I think Freemans greatest hurdle to being fantasy dynamite this year is just staying off the trainers table and on the field. 

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4 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

His numbers regressed because he missed all of 2018. He had like 14 carries and 5 receptions and the game wasn't even over yet. 

 

I think Freemans greatest hurdle to being fantasy dynamite this year is just staying off the trainers table and on the field. 

 

2017 they regressed

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4 hours ago, Jags02 said:

 

2017 they regressed

They did. He was also injured 2 games, but if you extrapolate to 16 games, then:

- 2015: 1634 yd (on 15 games)/14 TD; 108 yd per game

- 2016: 1541 yd/13 TD; 96 yd per game

- 2017: on track for 1350 td/9 TD; 84 yd per game

Buyer beware.

 

Edited by Boudewijn
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17 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

They did. He was also injured 2 games, but if you extrapolate to 16 games, then:

- 2015: 1634 yd (on 15 games)/14 TD; 108 yd per game

- 2016: 1541 yd/13 TD; 96 yd per game

- 2017: on track for 1350 td/9 TD; 84 yd per game

Buyer beware.

 

 

Entire offense was not good in 2017.

 

I'd have to look it up and I won't, but I'd be willing to bet they had at minimum 100 less offensive plays than 2016 and 2018.

 

It's not always easy learning a new system as a team. This year everything is the same. I think the offense will be just as good as it was in 2018 and likely better as long as the core contributors stay healthy. 

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39 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Entire offense was not good in 2017.

 

I'd have to look it up and I won't, but I'd be willing to bet they had at minimum 100 less offensive plays than 2016 and 2018.

 

It's not always easy learning a new system as a team. This year everything is the same. I think the offense will be just as good as it was in 2018 and likely better as long as the core contributors stay healthy. 

image.png.fee662df7a84b0da9364963ed778dc6f.png

Interestingly, no. 2016-2018 they had more or less the same number of offensive plays (at least tgt + att), and it was 2015 which was 100 plays more. 2017 was not very different in rushing/receiving from 2016 (although the receiving yardage was a lot better in 2016).

Edited by Boudewijn

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

image.png.fee662df7a84b0da9364963ed778dc6f.png

Interestingly, no. 2016-2018 they had more or less the same number of offensive plays (at least tgt + att), and it was 2015 which was 100 plays more. 2017 was not very different in rushing/receiving from 2016 (although the receiving yardage was a lot better in 2016).

 

Wow. Well fair enough. It wasn't the way I assumed in my head. You're correct. 

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13 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Wow. Well fair enough. It wasn't the way I assumed in my head. You're correct. 

 

Always refreshing to hear someone admit they were wrong. Doesn't happen enough on here. 

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4 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Always refreshing to hear someone admit they were wrong. Doesn't happen enough on here. 

Whoah whoah whoah. I want to have it on record that I've been wrong many times.

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To his point though, the falcons invested heavily in OL and Ridley is another year older (although, he’s already so old that may be a bad thing). I would say freeman is in a much better situation 

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1 hour ago, Panthers8912 said:

To his point though, the falcons invested heavily in OL and Ridley is another year older (although, he’s already so old that may be a bad thing). I would say freeman is in a much better situation 

 

Maybe, but with the entire league leaning more toward the passing game and realizing they need to keep their RBs healthy, I'm doubting he tops 225 carries, and something closer to 200 is probably more accurate. I've seen one protection where somehow they figured he'd only get 186 carries. 

They want to have the '15-'16 Devonta back where he had between 225 and 275 carries in each season. I suppose if he's all the way back he could get close to that 275 number, but that appears way optimistic given his declining stats as already pointed out. Getting up there in carries would also surely require him to be active for all 16 games which given his size/style/age/history combination is not a likely proposition.

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Freeman's PPR ADP currently sits at 26.  Ahead of Fournette (28) and Mack (31) but behind Damien Williams (21) and Chubb (22).

I have a feeling Chubb is a little low, and Williams is a little high, but that's just my opinion.

If you're looking to draft Freeman, then you're probably also considering Williams, Fournette, and Mack.  All of them have questions.  With Freeman and Fournette, it's obviously past injury and bust bias.  With Williams, it's "he's just ordinary" and concerns re Hyde, even despite Reid's tendency to lean on one back.  With Mack, it's the lack of passing involvement for a PPR format.

I know I need an RB at the round 2-3 turn, so I'm considering all these guys.  I think if Freeman can stay healthy, he has the best shot at all of them to return ADP value.  Of course though, my opinion changes weekly especially at this time, but I'm excited for the opportunity to get a guy who's proven he can be a stud.

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21 hours ago, CooL said:

Freeman's PPR ADP currently sits at 26.  Ahead of Fournette (28) and Mack (31) but behind Damien Williams (21) and Chubb (22).

I have a feeling Chubb is a little low, and Williams is a little high, but that's just my opinion.

If you're looking to draft Freeman, then you're probably also considering Williams, Fournette, and Mack.  All of them have questions.  With Freeman and Fournette, it's obviously past injury and bust bias.  With Williams, it's "he's just ordinary" and concerns re Hyde, even despite Reid's tendency to lean on one back.  With Mack, it's the lack of passing involvement for a PPR format.

I know I need an RB at the round 2-3 turn, so I'm considering all these guys.  I think if Freeman can stay healthy, he has the best shot at all of them to return ADP value.  Of course though, my opinion changes weekly especially at this time, but I'm excited for the opportunity to get a guy who's proven he can be a stud.

 

 

Among those four choices, I'd take Fournette.

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He wasn't exactly great in Dirk Koetter's offense the first time around.  That's a slight concern for me.  The volume should there, but for some reason I just don't love drafting him.

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23 hours ago, CooL said:

Freeman's PPR ADP currently sits at 26.  Ahead of Fournette (28) and Mack (31) but behind Damien Williams (21) and Chubb (22).

I have a feeling Chubb is a little low, and Williams is a little high, but that's just my opinion.

If you're looking to draft Freeman, then you're probably also considering Williams, Fournette, and Mack.  All of them have questions.  With Freeman and Fournette, it's obviously past injury and bust bias.  With Williams, it's "he's just ordinary" and concerns re Hyde, even despite Reid's tendency to lean on one back.  With Mack, it's the lack of passing involvement for a PPR format.

I know I need an RB at the round 2-3 turn, so I'm considering all these guys.  I think if Freeman can stay healthy, he has the best shot at all of them to return ADP value.  Of course though, my opinion changes weekly especially at this time, but I'm excited for the opportunity to get a guy who's proven he can be a stud.

I agree with all of that. Exactly my thoughts. 

 

2 hours ago, Jags02 said:

Among those four choices, I'd take Fournette.

Not me. Especially not in a PPR format. 

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23 hours ago, CooL said:

Freeman's PPR ADP currently sits at 26.  Ahead of Fournette (28) and Mack (31) but behind Damien Williams (21) and Chubb (22).

I have a feeling Chubb is a little low, and Williams is a little high, but that's just my opinion.

If you're looking to draft Freeman, then you're probably also considering Williams, Fournette, and Mack.  All of them have questions.  With Freeman and Fournette, it's obviously past injury and bust bias.  With Williams, it's "he's just ordinary" and concerns re Hyde, even despite Reid's tendency to lean on one back.  With Mack, it's the lack of passing involvement for a PPR format.

I know I need an RB at the round 2-3 turn, so I'm considering all these guys.  I think if Freeman can stay healthy, he has the best shot at all of them to return ADP value.  Of course though, my opinion changes weekly especially at this time, but I'm excited for the opportunity to get a guy who's proven he can be a stud.

well spoken. and i agree except that my opinion changes every 2-3 days, not weekly. if i was drafting today, i'm definitely choosing marlon mack over fournette, freeman, and williams. and i'm definitely changing my position shortly.

i don't think we'll see nick chubb slip much, even with hunt in the wings for week 9. also would introduce derrick henry here, and possibly josh jacobs, and owners will let the former slip and reach for the latter. thing is, you're suggesting an RB at the 2-3 turn, you're drafting at 1.01, 1.02, 1.03, or 1.04, so you'll absolutely have saquon, zeke, kamara or cmac. with that 2nd and 3rd pick, it's looking like (for example)

       saquon barkley + devonta freeman + AJ Green + cooper kupp in round 4 (or chris godwin or tyler lockett)

so, the other scenario for those drafting 1.01-1.04 is the WR/WR

     saquon barkley + adam thielen + keenan allen + chris carson in round 4 (or kenyon drake or david montgomery or linday, ingram...)

taking two WRs at the 2-3 turn could also net you TY hilton, or i have seen mike evans slip to 2.12 (and fantasy calculator has late pick at 3.03). i reckon we simply need to be ready as leaguemates possibly reach for QBs in round 2 or create opportunities with other reaches...

for me, devonta freeman is an easy RB5 if he plays 16 games. fournette is an easy RB 6-10 if he plays all 16 games, even in PPR. marlon mack to me is more questionable about health than workload or lack of passing opportunity; he's in such a great spot on a solid offense and great defense, similar to freeman except freeman also has the hands. i love henry here as well, but my fear of an inept titan offense wanes and waxes with the lunar cycle.

with all of these RBs creating questions, the WR/WR seems like a safer bet at the 2/2 turn, safer yet reduced upside... but if i drafted today, it would be marlon mack.

no, wait, freeman.

no, scratch that: henry

jFhMWMT.gif

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3 hours ago, Sack Exchange said:

well spoken. and i agree except that my opinion changes every 2-3 days, not weekly. if i was drafting today, i'm definitely choosing marlon mack over fournette, freeman, and williams. and i'm definitely changing my position shortly.

i don't think we'll see nick chubb slip much, even with hunt in the wings for week 9. also would introduce derrick henry here, and possibly josh jacobs, and owners will let the former slip and reach for the latter. thing is, you're suggesting an RB at the 2-3 turn, you're drafting at 1.01, 1.02, 1.03, or 1.04, so you'll absolutely have saquon, zeke, kamara or cmac. with that 2nd and 3rd pick, it's looking like (for example)

       saquon barkley + devonta freeman + AJ Green + cooper kupp in round 4 (or chris godwin or tyler lockett)

so, the other scenario for those drafting 1.01-1.04 is the WR/WR

     saquon barkley + adam thielen + keenan allen + chris carson in round 4 (or kenyon drake or david montgomery or linday, ingram...)

taking two WRs at the 2-3 turn could also net you TY hilton, or i have seen mike evans slip to 2.12 (and fantasy calculator has late pick at 3.03). i reckon we simply need to be ready as leaguemates possibly reach for QBs in round 2 or create opportunities with other reaches...

for me, devonta freeman is an easy RB5 if he plays 16 games. fournette is an easy RB 6-10 if he plays all 16 games, even in PPR. marlon mack to me is more questionable about health than workload or lack of passing opportunity; he's in such a great spot on a solid offense and great defense, similar to freeman except freeman also has the hands. i love henry here as well, but my fear of an inept titan offense wanes and waxes with the lunar cycle.

with all of these RBs creating questions, the WR/WR seems like a safer bet at the 2/2 turn, safer yet reduced upside... but if i drafted today, it would be marlon mack.

no, wait, freeman.

no, scratch that: henry

jFhMWMT.gif

55

 

The Colts don't try to run enough for Mack to be up that high plus he's practically worthless in the passing game. I have Mack and Chubb a whole tier below the rest of the guys you mention here.  In the higher tier, I'm looking at Henry, Fournette, Damien Williams, David Johnson (who most are way overrating in an even higher tier), Dalvin Cook and Devonta Freeman. ...and also Gurley if you're willing to draft him, and yes I would personally take Gurley over Mack and Chubb, but not over Freeman. .

 

Edited by Jags02

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12 minutes ago, Jags02 said:

 

The Colts don't try to run enough for Mack to be up that high plus he's practically worthless in the passing game. I have Mack and Chubb a whole tier below the rest of the guys you mention here.  In the higher tier, I'm looking at Henry, Fournette, Damien Williams, David Johnson (who most are way overrating in an even higher tier), Dalvin Cook and Devonta Freeman.

 

So much wrong with this post idk where to start.

 

The Colts ran the 17th most last season, so right near the league average.  They ran more than the Giants, Chargers, Bengals, Chiefs, Broncos, Vikings, and Steelers.

 

When you have David Johnson and Derrick Henry in the same tier something is seriously wrong.

 

What is overrated about David Johnson in 2019?

 

If Chubb doesn't score double digit TD's in 2019 I'll be in complete shock.

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15 minutes ago, Jags02 said:

 

The Colts don't try to run enough for Mack to be up that high plus he's practically worthless in the passing game. I have Mack and Chubb a whole tier below the rest of the guys you mention here.  In the higher tier, I'm looking at Henry, Fournette, Damien Williams, David Johnson (who most are way overrating in an even higher tier), Dalvin Cook and Devonta Freeman. ...and also Gurley if you're willing to draft him, and yes I would personally take Gurley over Mack and Chubb.

 

i agree, mack is underused in passing, so in standard leagues he’s boosted, in PPR reduced in value. but, mack hit 10 TDs last year in 12 games, and as the goal-line back for a solid offense the lack of targets is somewhat mitigated by the increased red zone opportunity, in my opinion.

 

the statement about the colts not running enough is inaccurate. in 2018, marlon mack rushed 195 times in 12 games, that’s 16.25 carries per game. if he had played 16 games, mack is looking at 260 carries. this would place mack at #3 for rushing attempts last year (behind zeke and saquon only). he’s also good for 35 targets and 20 receptions as a floor.

 

if mack is good for 1000 yards and 10 TDs out of 12 games, and considering the colts have upgraded offense and defense, projecting 1250 yards and 10+ TDs seems realistic. the solidity for RB2 is clear, and the TD upside will push mack into RB1 territory on any given week.

so, going back to my original point: if saquon, zeke, cmc, or kamara is your RB1, mack's floor / solidity as an RB2 creates a strong backfield. mack is not the sexy pick at 3.01, and is instead the dependable pick, relatively. i still have questions about his health and must monitor his health, however mack is not nearly as worrisome as freeman, fournette, or cook.

tenor.gif?itemid=6037957

 

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11 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

So much wrong with this post idk where to start.

 

The Colts ran the 17th most last season, so right near the league average.  They ran more than the Giants, Chargers, Bengals, Chiefs, Broncos, Vikings, and Steelers.

 

When you have David Johnson and Derrick Henry in the same tier something is seriously wrong.

 

What is overrated about David Johnson in 2019?

 

If Chubb doesn't score double digit TD's in 2019 I'll be in complete shock.

 

What's overrated about the quickly aging guy who averaged a mere 3.6 ypc last year, that being David Johnson, is that he's now in a scheme that makes the running game an afterthought and plans to consistently line up in the shotgun. How often do you see that combined with a top fantasy RB?  I'm taking Henry over DJ.

As for my tiers, well, I don't follow strictly ADP... I look hard at these RBs to figure where I think they'll go even if I go against everyone else's logic. I'll quickly run down my current tiers that include Gurley dropping fast from where I had him just weeks ago...

TIER 1: 1 CMC 2. Saquan 3. Zeke 4. Kamara 5. Bell

TIER 2: 6, Gordon 7, Mixon 8, Conner 9. Henry 10. Fournette 11. D. Williams 12. DJ 13. Cook 14. Freeman 15. Gurley

I don't have my order figured out after this, but the next tier surely includes Mack and Chubb. 

Edited by Jags02
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