Flyman75

Devonta Freeman 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2020.]

Message added by tonycpsu

Recommended Posts

31 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Lol. A lesson in futility. Eveeyone has a different opinion. 

How is that futile? Isn't that the point of forums like this?  Differing opinions and thoughts and expectations and so on? 

In semi-rebuttal, correctly numbered ;)

Quote

2. Kerryon - This is 100% contingent on Riddick being cut. Kerryon has skills. I feel like he was held out last year cause the season was lost. Hopefully that isn't a sign of things to come and he's a guy always battling injuries. I love he can catch and break runs and get in the end zone. 

I agree and I have him and Jones near dead even.

 

Quote

3. Freeman - Proven stud on high powered offense with Tevin Coleman finally gone. Ish Smith doesn't really impress me. Lotta people think this dude is finished cause 1 lost season. He's not the first RB to ever have a lost season though. 

Also agree but I think the Falcs stay pass-happy this year as he's no workhorse RB. I'm also a little skittish about injuries if they try to make him one. 

 

Quote

1. A Jones - Gotta love all this offseason talk were hearing from the coaches, but it's hard for me to get behind it until I see it happen. I'm also not a fan of guys that are in the program and 1 mistake away from losing serious time. 

?  Where do you get that? Can't say right now obviously but I have a feeling the Pack will ride him and Wms is just a spell the guy a bit role.

 

Quote

4. Mack - I don't see a path to receptions for him. It's hard to make a living purely as a banger and be healthy 16 games. I hate that Nyheim is like 22 and caught 60 passes last year. 

Exactly. Won't catch and too many others sharing the load. Good plan for the Colts but bad for fantasy owners.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

I'm frequently seeing this grouping :

 

Freeman

Mack

Kerryon 

Aaron Jones 

 

How would y'all rank those 4 against each other? 

 

1 Kerryon 1200 yd total

2 Freeman 1100

--------------

Jones/Mack 800 - 1000

Edited by Boudewijn
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, bomont said:

?  Where do you get that? Can't say right now obviously but I have a feeling the Pack will ride him and Wms is just a spell the guy a bit role.

 

Where do I get what? 

 

He's in the program. He was suspended last year. 

 

The offseason talk is coaches praising him and saying they want to get him (and all RB's) more receptions out of backfield. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Where do I get what? 

He's in the program. He was suspended last year. 

Did not know, thx for clarifying. ugh.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/27/2019 at 10:47 AM, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

I'm frequently seeing this grouping :

 

Freeman

Mack

Kerryon 

Aaron Jones 

 

How would y'all rank those 4 against each other?

 

For PPR I got 'em...

Kerryon > Freeman > Jones > Mack

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/24/2019 at 10:05 AM, CooL said:

Yes, he doesn't have to play all 16 games to be a value.  But how would you feel if he plays 12 while Leonard Fournette is magically healthy for an entire season?  That's the dilemma with choosing him over some of the others.

I think the beat writer's point was that he has recovered and he's able to run, cut, and not look limited by his previous injury.  Now, when the pads come on and when the real games start and he actually takes a hit, we hope that he doesn't fall apart like wet tissue paper.

 

His PPR ADP right now is 29.  If you're in a 10 team league and you're drafting at the back of your draft, ok, then maybe he'll be available.  Otherwise not a chance that he's there in the 4th round.

 

I get your concerns, and for that matter easily have Fournette over Devonta.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/27/2019 at 6:20 PM, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Lol. A lesson in futility. Eveeyone has a different opinion. 

 

PPR only. 

 

This is tough for me, but I'm gonna sound off (ranked in my opinion order) :

 

1. Kerryon - This is 100% contingent on Riddick being cut. Kerryon has skills. I feel like he was held out last year cause the season was lost. Hopefully that isn't a sign of things to come and he's a guy always battling injuries. I love he can catch and break runs and get in the end zone. 

 

2. Freeman - Proven stud on high powered offense with Tevin Coleman finally gone. Ish Smith doesn't really impress me. Lotta people think this dude is finished cause 1 lost season. He's not the first RB to ever have a lost season though. 

 

3. A Jones - Gotta love all this offseason talk were hearing from the coaches, but it's hard for me to get behind it until I see it happen. I'm also not a fan of guys that are in the program and 1 mistake away from losing serious time. 

 

4. Mack - I don't see a path to receptions for him. It's hard to make a living purely as a banger and be healthy 16 games. I hate that Nyheim is like 22 and caught 60 passes last year. 

 

 

Totally agree. Basically I have Kerryon and Freeman near the end of one tier, and then Jones and Mack near the start of the next tier.

I also have Chubb among these guys and am currently trying to comp him with Freeman. I am worried that Hunt is returning week 10.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Jags02 said:

 

 

Totally agree. Basically I have Kerryon and Freeman near the end of one tier, and then Jones and Mack near the start of the next tier.

I also have Chubb among these guys and am currently trying to comp him with Freeman. I am worried that Hunt is returning week 10.

 

Agree with you. Chubb was dominant end of last season. Hunt is pretty good at football when on the field though and knows he's playing for his football life on this $1 M 6-8 game tryout. 

 

I'd hate to invest huge draft capitol in a guy that becomes a timeshare back when I need him the most in the playoffs. 

 

I draft time share backs in the 50s+, not in the 20s.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/29/2019 at 11:13 AM, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

I'd hate to invest huge draft capitol in a guy that becomes a timeshare back when I need him the most in the playoffs. 

Which is exactly why I have Chubb a notch lower than most (still above guys like Freeman and Fournette though). I love everything about his situation...EXCEPT Hunt. Paranoia maybe.Or just a slight aversion to the risk/reward here later in the season. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, bomont said:

Which is exactly why I have Chubb a notch lower than most (still above guys like Freeman and Fournette though). I love everything about his situation...EXCEPT Hunt. Paranoia maybe.Or just a slight aversion to the risk/reward here later in the season. 

 

It's not even really paranoia IMO. I'm with you. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/27/2019 at 1:47 PM, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

I'm frequently seeing this grouping :

Freeman

Mack

Kerryon 

Aaron Jones 

How would y'all rank those 4 against each other? 

 

In my initial rankings:

1. Freeman (RB15)

2. Jones (RB16)

3. Kerryon (RB18)

4. Mack (RB21)

 

But it's early so these rankings are very fluid. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The concussions and lower body injuries scare me.  He very well may put up a monster season (definitely has 1st round upside), but I think his best days are behind him as his style isn't built for longevity.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I haven’t gone back more than a few pages, but has anyone brought up how suspect Koetter is at producing fantasy RBs? In three years in Atlanta he failed to have a RB rush for over 800 yards. In fact he’s had a back go over 1000 yards only twice in his 11 NFL seasons as coach/coordinator (though they were admittedly big years, Doug Martin in 2015 and MJD in 2011, when he led the league in rushing). I’m not sure I trust him to get the most out of Freeman, even if he does stay healthy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Fierylady said:

I haven’t gone back more than a few pages, but has anyone brought up how suspect Koetter is at producing fantasy RBs? In three years in Atlanta he failed to have a RB rush for over 800 yards. In fact he’s had a back go over 1000 yards only twice in his 11 NFL seasons as coach/coordinator (though they were admittedly big years, Doug Martin in 2015 and MJD in 2011, when he led the league in rushing). I’m not sure I trust him to get the most out of Freeman, even if he does stay healthy.

 

In Atlanta he had 30 year olds in Michael Turner and Steven Jackson. Both were at least top 25 backs due to volume alone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

anyone worried about the poor line play so far in this pre-season?  DF seems to have a spring in his step but man so far this pre-season this line hasn't been good.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎6‎/‎29‎/‎2019 at 5:09 AM, Jags02 said:

 

For PPR I got 'em...

Kerryon > Freeman > Jones > Mack

isn't fournette usually in this mix too? I have LF and freeman as my top of that group. I guess kerryon. hard to put such an unknown at the top of the list. hes not the bellcow (his words) like the others

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kinda getting tired of the injury prone label on Freeman. Since entering the league, he's played in 16, 15, 16, 14, and 2 last year. That's literally 1 season below 14 games. David Johnson isn't labeled injury prone only because his injury in 2016 occurred in the last game of the year and so he missed 0 games, and then all of the next year. 

Concussion risk, sure. But that usually keeps Freeman out for 1 game at a time. 

 

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seems like Freeman is really flying under the radar this year.  Seems to me he’s poised for a pretty big bounce back year.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

Kinda getting tired of the injury prone label on Freeman. Since entering the league, he's played in 16, 15, 16, 14, and 2 last year. That's literally 1 season below 14 games. David Johnson isn't labeled injury prone only because his injury in 2016 occurred in the last game of the year and so he missed 0 games, and then all of the next year. 

Concussion risk, sure. But that usually keeps Freeman out for 1 game at a time. 

 

 

 

To add to this, Freeman is only 27 and has a total of fewer than 775 total carries and 1,000 touches total in his career.  He has only had 3 seasons of double-digit carries in his career (196, 227, 265).  It seems like he has been around for a long time but his quasi timeshare with Coleman has really saved some tread on his tires.

As for the Falcons going more pass-heavy, that’s just as well for Freeman.  He has had two seasons with more than 50 receptions /more than 400 receiving yards (73 for 578 in 2015, 54 for 462 in 2016).  A team cannot totally abandon the run in the NFL.  Freeman’s competition for carries and for receptions is gone, and other than one (admittedly significant) injury, Freeman has been durable and won’t be 28 until next year.  The opportunity is there, the skill is there, the QB and other skill position talent is there, and the career usage is not even close to the imminent breakdown stage.  The more I think about it, the more trouble I have putting Freeman outside the top 20 overall.

Edited by FeastMode
  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, FeastMode said:

To add to this, Freeman is only 27 and has a total of fewer than 775 total carries and 1,000 touches total in his career.  He has only had 3 seasons of double-digit carries in his career (196, 227, 265).  It seems like he has been around for a long time but his quasi timeshare with Coleman has really saved some tread on his tires.

As for the Falcons going more pass-heavy, that’s just as well for Freeman.  He has had two seasons with more than 50 receptions /more than 400 receiving yards (73 for 578 in 2015, 54 for 462 in 2016).  A team cannot totally abandon the run in the NFL.  Freeman’s competition for carries and for receptions is gone, and other than one (admittedly significant) injury, Freeman has been durable and won’t be 28 until next year.  The opportunity is there, the skill is there, the QB and other skill position talent is there, and the career usage is not even close to the imminent breakdown stage.  The more I think about it, the more trouble I have putting Freeman outside the top 20 overall.

SPOT ON

 

Freeman should be taken in the early to mid 2nd round. Certainly over Mixon. Probably over Dalvin.

 

He’s essentially James Conner. Maybe not the most talented guy, but his situation is so juicy. Opportunity is everything. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

Kinda getting tired of the injury prone label on Freeman. Since entering the league, he's played in 16, 15, 16, 14, and 2 last year. That's literally 1 season below 14 games. David Johnson isn't labeled injury prone only because his injury in 2016 occurred in the last game of the year and so he missed 0 games, and then all of the next year. 

Concussion risk, sure. But that usually keeps Freeman out for 1 game at a time. 

 

 

 

Johnson got injured in the first game of 2017 as well.  Or maybe you meant that.  

Edited by K197040

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, K197040 said:

Johnson got injured in the first game of 2017 as well.  Or maybe you meant that.  

Remember David Johnson's great 2016 year? I meant he got injured in week 17 but since that's not fantasy relevant, nobody cares, but that is still an injury. The Freeman is injury prone bs is because Freeman got injured in week 2, not week 17 and because of recency bias. In reality, I could argue David Johnson is just as injury prone as Freeman is. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, OmegaRed88 said:

Seems like Freeman is really flying under the radar this year.  Seems to me he’s poised for a pretty big bounce back year.  

 

Boy I hope so. Their apparent OL struggles for me is alleviated by Freeman's ability to leak out and catch passes. Lets go!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

Remember David Johnson's great 2016 year? I meant he got injured in week 17 but since that's not fantasy relevant, nobody cares, but that is still an injury. The Freeman is injury prone bs is because Freeman got injured in week 2, not week 17 and because of recency bias. In reality, I could argue David Johnson is just as injury prone as Freeman is. 

Honestly neither of them are actually injury prone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.