urban2014

Chris Carson 2019 Outlook

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Very impressive year but Penny might have a bigger role next year 

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27 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:

very impressive start to this thread but others might disagree  

Disagree about what?

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Penny owners already harping about their failed rookie experiment.

 

Carson's backfield. Penny is a nobody. 

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Posted (edited)

I'll just repost what I wrote in the old Carson thread. Basically keep an eye on any changes by schotty in the preseason run schemes and that will give u an idea of the rb situation

 

On 12/25/2018 at 12:51 AM, dashoe said:

 

There is nothing off with Penny. SEA run game under Carroll has been a  zone running scheme.  Schotty was supposed to scrap it and go to a gap run scheme and it was assumed he would use a fullback and multiple TE's in his personnel packages which was very similar to the offense penney ran in college and a big reason of why they drafted him. Instead for whatever reasons(probably starting off 0-2) they kept most of the zone run and implemented some gap and schotty went single rb with no fullback and te's and used more wr packages. 

Carson learned the zone scheme last year and picked up the gap schemes. Penny has struggled in picking up the schemes to the coaches satisfaction. So basically Penney is a fish out of water in the current running scheme and if he doesnt adapt or if Schotty doesnt implement his full system and using a FB and TE -penney will probably fail.

 

So if people were wondering why the coaches keep giving Penney touches that's the reason why he was the best rb for schotty new scheme but not petes old scheme. He is talent wise a better rb than Carson but in the current scheme he hasnt figured out how to adapt his skill set and is ultimately failing.  You have seen some flashes of his talent in games but he is not consistent the way Carson is consistent.  He is either going to take it up to the next level in the offseason or bust.

 

 

Edited by dashoe
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1 hour ago, oliminator123 said:

Penny owners already harping about their failed rookie experiment.

 

Carson's backfield. Penny is a nobody. 

I own both in dynasty,  so my judgment on Penny isn't biased 

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I find it a bit odd that people are writing off Penny.    Carson goes in to 2019 starting, no doubt, but Penny got better as the season wore on, and finished at 4.9 YPC.    He's going to have a role, and you can't just write off a guy they invested so heavily in.     Teams do this stuff all the time- force their expensive toy into more carries despite the bargain option doing more than enough to keep a full time role.      

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This has Alex Collins written all over it. I wouldn't touch him at his current ADP. Guy was a low-end RB1 the second half of the season, but you have both injury and committee concerns, not to mention the fact that he doesn't catch passes gives him a very low floor as we saw against Dallas.

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

This has Alex Collins written all over it.

 

Must admit I thought this too.  It does seem a strech right now, but most people, at this time last year, were firmly believing Collins solidified his bellcow status for the Ravens.  AC finished the year strong, and made that amazing Week 17 run that looked like it was going to get the Ravens in the playoffs.   He had to be the guy next year, right?

 

I still think Carson holds on to a solid role, but I also dont draft him because of Penny.   I'll live with taking a shot at another back in Carson's range, and maybe being wrong.   I'll want to go back in time and punch my January 2019 self in the head if i do draft Carson, and he gets shorted on carries like I feared.  

 

I will add a counterpoint.   At one time last summer I mentioned this same effect with Mixon-Bernard.   Mixon looked to be the starter but I contended Gio played very well in Mixon's absence.   Gio in week 16 had a better fantasy day than Mixon did all season.    Mixon wound up clearly dominating touches.     

Edited by BrianM
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I owned at different times Carson-davis-penney  and got burned early on I'm not falling into that trap next year with SEA rb's; if they dont catch passes they wont be on my team in ppr

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51 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

This has Alex Collins written all over it. I wouldn't touch him at his current ADP. Guy was a low-end RB1 the second half of the season, but you have both injury and committee concerns, not to mention the fact that he doesn't catch passes gives him a very low floor as we saw against Dallas.

Good comparison.  Though I came into this season with Collins on my DND list.  For some reason I just didn't believe.  As for Carson at the right price I would take a shot.  

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Didnt Rawls come on late for Sea and seemed to be the man only to do nothing bc of injuries the following year causing him to fall into obscurity?

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I actually liked Carson at his likely to be late second round ADP but not so much anymore. 

 

There's a few issues here. The first is Schottenheimer. I'm not a believer of him and never will be. He is a one dimensional coordinator that has been a failure at his job prior to Seattle for a reason. Yes, he is a great for the run game. However, he also isn't good which means I expect an overall regression from the offense in a negative direction. 

 

The second is Carroll has been unpredictable. I do believe they would like to commit to a back but Penny looked quite good down the stretch. He will likely eat more into the workload the second season.

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1 hour ago, Zak0221 said:

Didnt Rawls come on late for Sea and seemed to be the man only to do nothing bc of injuries the following year causing him to fall into obscurity?

 

Yep, pretty much.   He banged out a 200 yard game, and a few other big ones, when Lynch got hurt his last year in SEA.  Rawls was the next big thing for an offseason and got hurt.   Came back that year but the magic was gone.  The next year he was second string to Eddie Lacy.  

 

During those years, I kept hanging onto CJ Prosise somewhere, realizing the backfield was terrible, and thinking sometime he'd get his shot and run with it.     Ha

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1 hour ago, Zak0221 said:

Didnt Rawls come on late for Sea and seemed to be the man only to do nothing bc of injuries the following year causing him to fall into obscurity?

Yes.  But Rawls was a much smaller sample size(think 4 or 5 games).  Plus if I remember correctly Rawls got injured in week 13, had surgery on his ankle and still wasn't healthy going into the next season.

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4 minutes ago, youngrice said:

Yes.  But Rawls was a much smaller sample size(think 4 or 5 games).  Plus if I remember correctly Rawls got injured in week 13, had surgery on his ankle and still wasn't healthy going into the next season.

Rawls very well could have been a good back if for not the injuries. 

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Wondering what special teams position he will be playing next year.  Gunner A or B?

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23 hours ago, urban2014 said:

Very impressive year but Penny might have a bigger role next year 

I had to sign in for this one to say, "laziest start of a thread ever"

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16 hours ago, dashoe said:

I'll just repost what I wrote in the old Carson thread. Basically keep an eye on any changes by schotty in the preseason run schemes and that will give u an idea of the rb situation

 

 

Yes, I believe you were speaking to me on this one, I will keep a close eye.  Thanks

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3 hours ago, Zak0221 said:

Didnt Rawls come on late for Sea and seemed to be the man only to do nothing bc of injuries the following year causing him to fall into obscurity?

What does this have to do with anything? 

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4 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

What does this have to do with anything? 

It means it might not be wise to chase a healthy Chris Carson ff season.

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I will be staying far away from Chris Carson. Penny looked very explosive in the second half of the season and the team loves Mike Davis as a pass catching back. Assuming the Hawks lead the league again with roughly 450 rushing attempts to their RB's, I see the split playing out like this ...

 

Carson : 225/10

Penny : 180/25

Davis : 45/20

 

This is under the assumption that they will be able to run the ball this often with their backs. It may be more realistic to lower it to a 205-165-35 split. 

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1 hour ago, urban2014 said:

Isn't Davis a Free agent?

 

he will more than likely be released again

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On 1/7/2019 at 7:46 AM, BGDDYKWL said:

This has Alex Collins written all over it. I wouldn't touch him at his current ADP. Guy was a low-end RB1 the second half of the season, but you have both injury and committee concerns, not to mention the fact that he doesn't catch passes gives him a very low floor as we saw against Dallas.

 

I kind of agree, although I think Carson is significantly better than Collins, especially at the goalline. 

 

I think they move on from Davis and just have Penny slide into that role and Carson still has a good year. But there certainly are some valid concerns.

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