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Chris Carson 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2020.]

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53 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Here let me help you step away a bit from your seasonal averages  which really don't mean much if you are planning a lineup for the week..

Carson burned you if you started him the firs t 10  games of the season because you could not place him in your lineup and predict a certain outcome; which you should be able to do for a starting NFL rb sharing a backfield with a lost rookie and a journeyman.  What would you get 4pts? 8pts? 20pts? how many touches 0. 5. 15, 20? Would he play the whole games? Would he stay healthy?  Will Petey move him to special teams because he looked gassed? Why the heck is Davis getting 40% mkt share? Why is penney even on the field if he doesnt know the offense?

I know if  Lamar Miller is the starting rb on his team, his touches are very predictable even though his production blows vs those touches. 

THAT's what your seasonal averages and std deviations WON'T tell you.  ThATS's what made Carson unpredictable for 10 weeks., His situation was unpredictable because  the coaching and the offense were unpredictable.  

Also your method is BACKWARDS LOOKING meaning you didnt have this information last season when you were planning your lineups. .  . so great hindsight analysis but for those of us in deciding to start Carson in real time it didnt exist 😂👀

Not sure why you are not grasping this concept. 🤨

I had to dump Carson early because of a short bench, but if memory serves me, wasn’t it easy to determine whether Carson would be given a full-load based on his health and the health of the other rbs-?

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5 hours ago, dashoe said:

 Game 1-  10pts                 
      2 -  2pts                  
      6-  6pts                  
      8-  4pts                  
     10-  13pts                 
     11-  14pts                 
     12-  14pts                 
     13-  15pts                 
                              
 He played 14 games           
 8 games were 15pts and under 
 Games 14-16 he had over 20pts

 

 It wasn't until game 10 he had predictable double digit point production

So as I said his production was not predictable for 10 GAMES and I don't subscribe to the EVERY OTHER WEEK forecast for my lineup because you can easily get whipsawed and burned; there is no EVERY OTHER WEEK model  😂.

He was designated the teams rb1 coming out of training camp and he didnt begin to consistently perform like one until the fantasy playoffs hit and he ultimately finished as an rb2 for the season 

Nothing like cherry-picking a random number (15pts) and still not proving a point.

😆

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1 hour ago, psygolf said:

Nothing like cherry-picking a random number (15pts) and still not proving a point.

😆

Nothing like reading subsequent posts and actually following a thread where I specifically stated 15pts was my cutoff for a rb1 whereas someone else may have a different one. . .😱

It's like I told a coworker of mine, sometimes you have to go past the 1st page of your google search results to actually find the relevant information. . .🤓

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Just now, dashoe said:

Nothing like reading subsequent posts and actually following a thread where I specifically stated 15pts was my cutoff for a rb1 whereas someone else may have a different one. . .😱

It's like I told a coworker of mine, sometimes you have to go past the 1st page of your google search results to actually find the relevant information. . .🤓

D.A.Shoe...complaining that Carson didn’t pan out for his rb1

😂

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2 hours ago, psygolf said:

I had to dump Carson early because of a short bench, but if memory serves me, wasn’t it easy to determine whether Carson would be given a full-load based on his health and the health of the other rbs-?

 

Exactly if you didnt own him then you wouldnt know that context and thus would simply look at his season totals ppg averages and say hey he is a solid plug and play rb2 and if I extrapolate those number to this season then he will be a . . . stud 😜

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Just now, dashoe said:

 

Exactly if you didnt own him then you wouldnt know that context and thus would simply look at his season totals ppg averages and say hey he is a solid plug and play rb2 and if I extrapolate those number to this season then he will be a . . . stud 😜

Not true...I watch what I let go.

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1 minute ago, psygolf said:

D.A.Shoe...complaining that Carson didn’t pan out for his rb1

😂

More like i keep getting sucked into the SEA rb tar pit rabbit hole every season 🤨

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Just now, dashoe said:

More like i keep getting sucked into the SEA rb tar pit rabbit hole every season 🤨

Owning the entire Seattle rbbc does not help your cause.

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Just now, psygolf said:

Not true...I watch what I let go.

but you did own him correct?

So that would mean VERY TRUE 😂

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Just now, psygolf said:

Owning the entire Seattle rbbc does not help your cause.

churn and burn them every week on the waiver until exhaustion sets in from being burnt 🔥. . .

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6 minutes ago, dashoe said:

but you did own him correct?

So that would mean VERY TRUE 😂

I had to wait on Ingram to get back...And A.Jones

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5 minutes ago, dashoe said:

churn and burn them every week on the waiver until exhaustion sets in from being burnt 🔥. . .

Hope that was fun...because it obviously not productive for you.

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16 minutes ago, dashoe said:

More like i keep getting sucked into the SEA rb tar pit rabbit hole every season 🤨

 

 

Cant blame the guy for wanting them. with all those run attempts they had and seemed like every week 1 of those 3 guys got a hundred yards. Just took till week 10 before Seattle picked one and stuck with em

Edited by Stonej14

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11 minutes ago, psygolf said:

Hope that was fun...because it obviously not productive for you.

best strategy in the world , you will hit more than you lose because u position players who get hot before the rest of  your league without wasting faab and u dont hang on to losers over the season. in this case I dropped carson and grabbed cohen who got hot(cohen sucked early too which was why the owner dropped him)  and dropped penny to grab chubb before the hyde trade.

Davis was a 1 week head fake 👁️

Edited by dashoe

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3 minutes ago, dashoe said:

best strategy in the world , you will hit more than you lose because u position players who get hot before the rest of  your league without wasting faab and u dont hang on to losers over the season. in this case I dropped carson and grabbed cohen who got hot(cohen sucked early too which was why the owner dropped him)  and dropped penny to grab chubb before the hyde trade.

Davis was a 1 week head fake 👁️

 

Chubb > Carson

Cohen > penny

Sounds like league winning moves.

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

best strategy in the world , you will hit more than you lose because u position players who get hot before the rest of  your league without wasting faab and u dont hang on to losers over the season. in this case I dropped carson and grabbed cohen who got hot(cohen sucked early too which was why the owner dropped him)  and dropped penny to grab chubb before the hyde trade.

Davis was a 1 week head fake 👁️

 

Cohen was a 4th round pick in PPR leagues and had two bad games to start the season. No one else had this option. 

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26 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Cohen was a 4th round pick in PPR leagues and had two bad games to start the season. No one else had this option. 

 

1. I dont play in snake drafts which if you do then you will know snale drafts have very little correlation to live auction drafts.

2. Cohen had 3 consecutive games not 2  as you stated to start the season where he had less than 8 targets  and 21pts cumulative so it was perfectly understandable as to why the owner dropped him for what they felt may have been a more promising prospect as there was nothing to indicate Nagy was going to use him enough to keep on the bench. People drafted Cohen to be a PPR stud but for the first 3 games he was irrelevant and crushed many draft dreams.

I picked him up because I figured Carson sucked in the same  3 game period  for the supposed primary SEA rb so why not see if Cohen turns it around?

3. I doubt if your league is the barometer by which all other leagues are measured 😂

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

best strategy in the world , you will hit more than you lose because u position players who get hot before the rest of  your league without wasting faab and u dont hang on to losers over the season. in this case I dropped carson and grabbed cohen who got hot(cohen sucked early too which was why the owner dropped him)  and dropped penny to grab chubb before the hyde trade.

Davis was a 1 week head fake 👁️

You already admitted it was a fail.

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7 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Churning ww? Ugh, must be one of those leagues where waivers reset every week...yuck

FAAB spend  waiver close sunday game time re-opens wednesday morn

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15 minutes ago, psygolf said:

You already admitted it was a fail.

No  I didnt.   The fail was getting sucked into the SEA backfield.

You are trying way too hard today. . .😜

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18 minutes ago, dashoe said:

No  I didnt.   The fail was getting sucked into the SEA 

Agreed...you sucked.

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9 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

1. I dont play in snake drafts which if you do then you will know snale drafts have very little correlation to live auction drafts.

2. Cohen had 3 consecutive games not 2  as you stated to start the season where he had less than 8 targets  and 21pts cumulative so it was perfectly understandable as to why the owner dropped him for what they felt may have been a more promising prospect as there was nothing to indicate Nagy was going to use him enough to keep on the bench. People drafted Cohen to be a PPR stud but for the first 3 games he was irrelevant and crushed many draft dreams.

I picked him up because I figured Carson sucked in the same  3 game period  for the supposed primary SEA rb so why not see if Cohen turns it around?

3. I doubt if your league is the barometer by which all other leagues are measured 😂

 

He had 70 total yards and three catches week 3.

 

But, If you say so. No one else was able to pick up Cohen in season. If you have an opening in your league, hit me up.

Edited by dmb3684
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10 hours ago, dashoe said:

The fail was getting sucked into the SEA backfield.

 

you've won me over to your side. i will help to promote the "avoid chris carson" cause for the reasons you've stated and more.

 

13 hours ago, psygolf said:

Owning the entire Seattle rbbc does not help your cause.

 

i see more clearly now thanks to dashoe's posts: taking the anti-carson stance is the best way to keep carson's ADP down.

seattle was the #2 rushing attempt team of 2018, #1 rushing by yards, and i don't see this changing much. in 14 games, chris carson was the 5th RB rushing yards, 5th in rushing attempts per game, and the 7th by rushing attempts overall: if i can draft carson now at his round 5 price, it's a steal for his RB2 numbers, and if i can help the penny-truthers and and anti-carson folk spread the word, maybe that round 5 price tag can slip to rounds 6 or 7. if i can save just $2 in auction and pick carson up for that value, it's gold jerry, gold. so...

there is no way carson will be relevant this season, not with rashaad penny in the backfield, the RB who topped 200 yards against the powerhouses of collegiate football: the univeristy of new mexico lobos and the wolfpack at nevada, the spartans (of san jose state), and the rainbow warriors of hawaii. carson played 14 games last season, so clearly the sample size is too small. plus, carson's inconsistent usage will only baffle fantasy owners to bill belechick levels: i mean, carson ended the season as #4 in rushing yards per game, but that average is deceptive because many leagues don't count weekly points and instead total numbers at season's end. plus, these numbers can easily slide and we'll most likely see this #4 yards per game slip more towards #24 or even 34.

chart?content=Baffling&corpus=0&smoothin

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

you've won me over to your side. i will help to promote the "avoid chris carson" cause for the reasons you've stated and more.

 

 

i see more clearly now thanks to dashoe's posts: taking the anti-carson stance is the best way to keep carson's ADP down.

seattle was the #2 rushing attempt team of 2018, #1 rushing by yards, and i don't see this changing much. in 14 games, chris carson was the 5th RB rushing yards, 5th in rushing attempts per game, and the 7th by rushing attempts overall: if i can draft carson now at his round 5 price, it's a steal for his RB2 numbers, and if i can help the penny-truthers and and anti-carson folk spread the word, maybe that round 5 price tag can slip to rounds 6 or 7. if i can save just $2 in auction and pick carson up for that value, it's gold jerry, gold. so...

there is no way carson will be relevant this season, not with rashaad penny in the backfield, the RB who topped 200 yards against the powerhouses of collegiate football: the univeristy of new mexico lobos and the wolfpack at nevada, the spartans (of san jose state), and the rainbow warriors of hawaii. carson played 14 games last season, so clearly the sample size is too small. plus, carson's inconsistent usage will only baffle fantasy owners to bill belechick levels: i mean, carson ended the season as #4 in rushing yards per game, but that average is deceptive because many leagues don't count weekly points and instead total numbers at season's end. plus, these numbers can easily slide and we'll most likely see this #4 yards per game slip more towards #24 or even 34.

chart?content=Baffling&corpus=0&smoothin

 

 

 

🤣😂 this had me going for a while. Good one 👍

 

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