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Chris Carson 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

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2 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Do you know what a 16 game, weekly RB2 is called?

An RB1.

For a season long RB2, Carson was as consistent and dependable as it gets.

Lets see the charts for players who finished in his range. Show us some AP, Drake, Henry, Chubb, Cohen charts, then come back and tell me Carson wasn’t dependable. 

Carson had 2 unavoidable duds all season. That’s incredible for fantasy purposes.

Let me also reply seriously, because you have a point. Yes, if you look at the distribution of good and bad games, then Carson is similar to the others you mention, and all 5 ended up being RB2 for the whole season.

image.png.f65a7bde283273a04f8b641cbbef0395.png

Hard to separate them, but Carson had slightly fewer terrible games, which was one of the good points you were making.

(I also count the 2 games where he was scratched at game day, because often in those cases you still end up with a zero or a dud. So I think he had 4 duds, when the others had 5 or 6.)

However, that was not the point, or how this discussion started. The start of this discussion was that anyone who dumped Carson midway through the season made a stupid decision, because anyone could see AT THAT MOMENT that he was a dependable week to week RB2. And I say to that: no. Over the whole season, yes, but midway through the season, most people were giving up on Chubb, Henry and Carson; while for Peterson and Cohen it was clear they were RB2/Flex.

AP and Cohen were frustrating, but good enough to keep; anybody holding on to Chubb, Henry or Carson was a severe optimist (*) or had a long bench.

(*) I was one of those optimists with a long bench for Henry. And then when he exploded, obviously, it was on my bench, but that's a different story :)

 

Edited by Boudewijn
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13 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Let me also reply seriously, because you have a point. Yes, if you look at the distribution of good and bad games, then Carson is similar to the others you mention, and all 5 ended up being RB2 for the whole season.

image.png.f65a7bde283273a04f8b641cbbef0395.png

Hard to separate them, but Carson had slightly fewer terrible games, which was one of the good points you were making.

(I also count the 2 games where he was scratched at game day, because often in those cases you still end up with a zero or a dud. So I think he had 4 duds, when the others had 5 or 6.)

However, that was not the point, or how this discussion started. The start of this discussion was that anyone who dumped Carson midway through the season made a stupid decision, because anyone could see AT THAT MOMENT that he was a dependable week to week RB2. And I say to that: no. Over the whole season, yes, but midway through the season, most people were giving up on Chubb, Henry and Carson; while for Peterson and Cohen it was clear they were RB2/Flex.

AP and Cohen were frustrating, but good enough to keep; anybody holding on to Chubb, Henry or Carson was a severe optimist (*) or had a long bench.

(*) I was one of those optimists with a long bench for Henry. And then when he exploded, obviously, it was on my bench, but that's a different story :)

 

Nobody said he was dependable rb2 to start the season, nor did anyone say dumping him early was a bad decision.

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19 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Let me also reply seriously, because you have a point. Yes, if you look at the distribution of good and bad games, then Carson is similar to the others you mention, and all 5 ended up being RB2 for the whole season.

image.png.f65a7bde283273a04f8b641cbbef0395.png

Hard to separate them, but Carson had slightly fewer terrible games, which was one of the good points you were making.

(I also count the 2 games where he was scratched at game day, because often in those cases you still end up with a zero or a dud. So I think he had 4 duds, when the others had 5 or 6.)

However, that was not the point, or how this discussion started. The start of this discussion was that anyone who dumped Carson midway through the season made a stupid decision, because anyone could see AT THAT MOMENT that he was a dependable week to week RB2. And I say to that: no. Over the whole season, yes, but midway through the season, most people were giving up on Chubb, Henry and Carson; while for Peterson and Cohen it was clear they were RB2/Flex.

AP and Cohen were frustrating, but good enough to keep; anybody holding on to Chubb, Henry or Carson was a severe optimist (*) or had a long bench.

(*) I was one of those optimists with a long bench for Henry. And then when he exploded, obviously, it was on my bench, but that's a different story :)

 

And what are you trying to show by have the pts scored scale go that much above 30 pts-??  

It’s a misleading visual

...though is does show that Carson was basically equal or greater than Cohen from wk 3 and on.

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1 hour ago, psygolf said:

And what are you trying to show by have the pts scored scale go that much above 30 pts-??  

It’s a misleading visual

Maybe if you don't understand it you call it confusing rather than misleading? It's a bit nicer.

What I was trying to do was to compare seasons that are very different. Some guys scored much better at the end than at the start (Henry, Carson) while others were up and down throughout the season (AP, Cohen). In order to compare them, I try to find out how many bad, medium or great games they have; so for each player I sort the points ascending. For Cohen and Carson for instance that would be:

image.png.0c9554ef9e20bb1f36553a3f35123f6b.png

What you can see now is that their best and worst games are more or less similar, but Carson had more 10+ games.

How is that relevant to the graph I showed? Well, let's add Saquon (RB2) and Latavius Murray (RB32), who both had 16 games.

image.png.26cd3afdb1b8eaf6f07b43e93ffb6d83.png 

You can now clearly see that Cohen and Carson had similar profiles (Carson slightly better), especially compared to Barkley and Murray. So based on this I agreed with MJJ that yes, seen over the whole season, looking back, they were similar. 

Edited by Boudewijn
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5 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Maybe if you don't understand it you call it confusing rather than misleading? It's a bit nicer.

What I was trying to do was to compare seasons that are very different. Some guys scored much better at the end than at the start (Henry, Carson) while others were up and down throughout the season (AP, Cohen). In order to compare them, I try to find out how many bad, medium or great games they have; so for each player I sort the points ascending. For Cohen and Carson for instance that would be:

image.png.0c9554ef9e20bb1f36553a3f35123f6b.png

What you can see now is that their best and worst games are more or less similar, but Carson had more 10+ games.

How is that relevant to the graph I showed? Well, let's add Saquon (RB2) and Latavius Murray (RB32), who both had 16 games.

image.png.26cd3afdb1b8eaf6f07b43e93ffb6d83.png 

You can now clearly see that Cohen and Carson had similar profiles (Carson slightly better), especially compared to Barkley and Murray. So based on this I agreed with MJJ that yes, seen over the whole season, looking back, they were similar. 

*They were similar at the beginning also for std scprong, which is why if my League (with a short bench) I was able to pick up Cohen @ the same time I dropped Carson...potato potato.

Thanks for acknowledging that the angle of scope was too wide for ff purposes...then fixing.

 

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7 hours ago, psygolf said:

*They were similar at the beginning also for std scprong, which is why if my League (with a short bench) I was able to pick up Cohen @ the same time I dropped Carson...potato potato.

 

 

I thought you dropped Carson to make room for Ingram coming off suspension. 

So in week 3 you had DJ, connor, chubb, Ingram. And dropped Carson for cohen. Even tho chubb had 7 total touches in the first 3 weeks

But you didnt want to drop Carson but had to cuss of a short bench. But you did for what seemed like an upgrade at the time. But why didnt you just drop chubb, could you see the future? Good call ultimately tho.

 

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5 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

 

I thought you dropped Carson to make room for Ingram coming off suspension. 

So in week 3 you had DJ, connor, chubb, Ingram. And dropped Carson for cohen. Even tho chubb had 7 total touches in the first 3 weeks

But you didnt want to drop Carson but had to cuss of a short bench. But you did for what seemed like an upgrade at the time. But why didnt you just drop chubb, could you see the future? Good call ultimately tho.

 

and we still dont know  his league size 6-8-12-etc, scoring format and  # of roster positions but we do know that he says he knew that carson was a  consistent and reliable rb2 he dropped for a "short bench" but wont say how short the bench was. . . 😂

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8 minutes ago, dashoe said:

and we still dont know  his league size 6-8-12-etc, scoring format and  # of roster positions but we do know that he says he knew that carson was a  consistent and reliable rb2 he dropped for a "short bench" but wont say how short the bench was. . . 😂

 

Let's just let it ride.  It's not worth it.  When people are in deep holes they will just tell a lie anyway.  Let's all just move on.  

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I think Shoe lost his boasting privileges in this thread when he admitted to buying Penny in his auction at cost, wasting a roster slot on Davis, and dropping Carson week 10. Probably not best to throw stones in here when it cannot possibly get worse than that. Ouch.

Edited by MJJ28

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

and we still dont know  his league size 6-8-12-etc, scoring format and  # of roster positions but we do know that he says he knew that carson was a  consistent and reliable rb2 he dropped for a "short bench" but wont say how short the bench was. . . 😂

 

Woah I'm not trying to get in the middle of this fued. 

But I am still laughing at the "da-chicken" comment 

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

and we still dont know  his league size 6-8-12-etc, scoring format and  # of roster positions but we do know that he says he knew that carson was a  consistent and reliable rb2 he dropped for a "short bench" but wont say how short the bench was. . . 😂

I did not say that I knew anything beyond him being a wildcard draft pick could bring great reward...on my bench.  

You’re the one who bought him to be a starter, then dropped him AFTER he turned the corner.

Priceless!  

😂

 

Edited by psygolf

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1 hour ago, MJJ28 said:

I think Shoe lost his boasting privileges in this thread when he admitted to buying Penny in his auction at cost, wasting a roster slot on Davis, and dropping Carson week 10. Probably not best to throw stones in here when it cannot possibly get worse than that. Ouch.

C’mon now...I’m sure he made worse moves.

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Back to Carson.....

 

On 5/31/2019 at 12:24 AM, Boudewijn said:

Let me also reply seriously, because you have a point. Yes, if you look at the distribution of good and bad games, then Carson is similar to the others you mention, and all 5 ended up being RB2 for the whole season.

anyone could see AT THAT MOMENT that he was a dependable week to week RB2. And I say to that: no. Over the whole season, yes, but midway through the season, most people were giving up on Chubb, Henry and Carson;

 

What fools were giving up on Carson mid-season last year? I need to find these leagues. I doubt "most people" were giving up on him though. 

Where does he go this year? He can't catch but he was consistent.

 

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20 hours ago, bomont said:

Back to Carson.....

 

What fools were giving up on Carson mid-season last year? I need to find these leagues. I doubt "most people" were giving up on him though. 

Where does he go this year? He can't catch but he was consistent.

 

It will likely be a timeshare, something like 60-40 with Carson and Penny this year.  That said, I would rather have Penny this year.  Carson will likely be drafted somewhere around the 5th-6th round in a 12 teamer and as mentioned, I would rather have Penny a bit later.

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Yeah Carson will go too soon for my liking. Penny might be a late-round flyer.

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Getting higher and higher on Carson as a good pick in the late 4th/ early 5th. Probably won’t fall past that, but maybe I can hype up penny with some super duper reverse psychology 

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The Seahawks want to get Chris Carson more involved in the passing game.

"We need to get him more involved in the passing game," was OC Brian Schottenheimer's exact quote. "He’s got unbelievable hands, and he’s a problem for people coming out of the backfield." The Seahawks targeted their running backs just 84 times in 2018, the second-lowest number in the league. Carson is buying Schotty's new commitment to using his backs as pass catchers. "He’s splitting (us) out wide, putting (us) in different spots around the field." Schotty's words come the same day the Seahawks' official website said the team was expecting "big things" from both Carson and Rashaad Penny. Increased passing-game usage would go a long way toward firewalling Carson's RB2 status ahead of COP-back Penny.

RELATED: 
Aug 6, 2019, 7:42 PM ET

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Consistent RB2 that won't ruin your weeks, esp. in half ppr. 

Would love him as a flex but if i have an early pick and take an elite rb, i wouldn't mind taking wrs the next 3 rounds and trying to get him in the 5th as my 2nd rb

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Ok last year after 2 weeks (the bears dud game on mon night when stupid pete carroll was still trying to make penny a thing) i dropped carson for someone (I do not even remember who) but worse I held onto royce freeman. Yuck. I still have nightmares about this decision.

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26 minutes ago, CharlieWhitehurst said:

Consistent RB2 that won't ruin your weeks, esp. in half ppr. 

Would love him as a flex but if i have an early pick and take an elite rb, i wouldn't mind taking wrs the next 3 rounds and trying to get him in the 5th as my 2nd rb

Current ADP 49 so it's possible, although in all my mocks he never lasts until the 5th. 

Remains to be seen if they start to use the RBs in the passing game.  Russell seems more prone to run and sandlot stuff than to just dump it off. 

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3 hours ago, The G Man said:

The Seahawks want to get Chris Carson more involved in the passing game.

"We need to get him more involved in the passing game," was OC Brian Schottenheimer's exact quote. "He’s got unbelievable hands, and he’s a problem for people coming out of the backfield." The Seahawks targeted their running backs just 84 times in 2018, the second-lowest number in the league. Carson is buying Schotty's new commitment to using his backs as pass catchers. "He’s splitting (us) out wide, putting (us) in different spots around the field." Schotty's words come the same day the Seahawks' official website said the team was expecting "big things" from both Carson and Rashaad Penny. Increased passing-game usage would go a long way toward firewalling Carson's RB2 status ahead of COP-back Penny.

As I've said elsewhere I put little to no stock in training camp talk, but I have heard before Carson is a capable receiver and it makes sense that they would try to regress (progress?) to the norm a little. I'm warming up to this player somewhat, esp at his cost which has either gone down a bit or I was seeing somewhere that it was higher than most.

Edited by bomont

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I can't seem to confirm, but it looks like Carson was a healthy scratch yesterday while Penny got a good dose of usage.   If Carson wasn't nicked up or anything, that's a great sign.   Carson's a guy I haven't thought much about lately but I just read up a bit on anything I could get my hands on re: his camp performance and its all strong.   Gonna have to bump him up a bit. 

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I've never understood why so many people believed Chris Carson isn't a pass catcher.

His 1st preseason a couple seasons ago, he caught multiple passes for big gains, and yet SEA never utlized him as a legitimate pass catcher.

He's a guy who can legitimately give you 3-30-0 receiving lines as a floor, and could even throw up some 5-45 lines if he's given 4-6 targets a game.

 

When he's in the open field, he's proven he can be a problem.

 

But man, if he's getting even 3-5 targets on a consistent basis this year, he'll be shooting up the draft boards.

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carson just went 3rd round in one of my son long leagues. Made me rethink taking marlon mack a couple picks prior. But carson still runs behind a bad oline so

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1 hour ago, Panthers8912 said:

carson just went 3rd round in one of my son long leagues. Made me rethink taking marlon mack a couple picks prior. But carson still runs behind a bad oline so

 

3rd round seems a bit outlandish, unless the person taking him hadn't drafted a RB yet and was afraid Carson wasn't going to make it back to them.

 

Carson should be going somewhere in the 4th/5th round depdending on how deep the league is.

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