Boudewijn

Julio Jones 2019 Outlook

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Over the past 4 years, only 2 WRs have been consistently in the top 10s in every format: Antonio Brown and Julio Jones.
Image result for julio jones size

In receiving yards Julio has been the best over the past seasons:
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As you can see, only Julio and Brown were consistently in the top, and Julio has slightly more yards than Brown. The problem with Julio is of course that he gets relatively few TDs.
In fact, his lack of TDs has been exceptional compared to other receivers. On average, receivers with 1000+ yards score a TD every 150 yards; for Julio that’s every 250 yards (AB scores a TD every 130 yards).
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In the Red Zone, Julio has been effective enough (5 TDs in 2018 off 17 targets, which is average), but just doesn’t get the targets of Adams (31), JuJu (29), Nuk (26) or Brown (24). Last year he had 8 TDs (his best year since 2015), which was tied for 13th in receiving TDs – compared of course to Brown's 15.
 

I expect all of this to hurt his ADP somewhat, and he might drop to the early second round (compared to WR4 in 2018). However, to me, this is the kind of perfect pick, who will always show up, always perform, and who is a great cornerstone for your team. I'll be happy to catch him if he drops that far.

Edited by Boudewijn
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Scoring only 51 TDs in 8 seasons is ridiculous for a WR as talented and as big as Julio. As a Saints and LSU fan, I dislike Julio double (Falcons and Bama, lol), but he should/could be a bigger fantasy stud than he already is. He hasn't reeled in fewer than 1400 yards since 2013 (when he played only 5 games and had a 41-580-2 line). If he ever scores a dozen TDs to go with 100+ catches and 1400+ yards...yikes. 

 

He's going to be 30 in a few weeks, but he hasn't shown any signs of slowing down. I guess one question I have is whether or not a new OC will have any affect on his RZ usage or his TD production. It would seem that, no matter who the OC is, Ryan and Julio would have a RZ connection by now if they were ever going to get one. 

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4 hours ago, Gohawks said:

JuLio JoNes is dUE fOr a PoSItiVE TD ReGResSion

He already positively regressed into 2018.

 

With a new OC I don't see why he shouldn't at least double his red zone targets 

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1 minute ago, bhawks489 said:

He already positively regressed into 2018.

 

With a new OC I don't see why he shouldn't at least double his red zone targets 

You would think any OC would be intelligent enough to feed the ball to their best player, but the Falcons' OC's continually struggle to do so. And so does Matt Ryan with his accuracy.

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5 minutes ago, smeeze said:

Falcons reportedly closing in on a deal to make Julio Jones the NFL's highest-paid receiver

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/falcons-reportedly-closing-in-on-a-deal-to-make-julio-jones-the-nfls-highest-paid-receiver/

 

I just don't get it.  He's obviously a fantastic WR but the recent history of Super Bowel winners shows that you really don't need to spend big money on a WR or RB.

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35 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 

I just don't get it.  He's obviously a fantastic WR but the recent history of Super Bowel winners shows that you really don't need to spend big money on a WR or RB.

So don't spend money at WR/RB and win the SB? Not every organization is a model of consistency like the Patriots. Eagles paid big money to Alshon. Lynch was a big name RB. DT was a big name receiver. Fitz, while he didn't win, was a big name receiver.

Teams win with great players.

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11 minutes ago, devaster said:

So don't spend money at WR/RB and win the SB? Not every organization is a model of consistency like the Patriots. Eagles paid big money to Alshon. Lynch was a big name RB. DT was a big name receiver. Fitz, while he didn't win, was a big name receiver.

Teams win with great players.

I don't know if I buy in to that.  Seems like for the money spent on a high end RB/WR you could shore up the OL or defense.  It's easy to dismiss the Pats and say, "well it's the Pats". But they seem to have a model that works pretty well.

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1 minute ago, K197040 said:

I don't know if I buy in to that.  Seems like for the money spent on a high end RB/WR you could shore up the OL or defense.  It's easy to dismiss the Pats and say, "well it's the Pats". But they seem to have a model that works pretty well.

 

Julio would have won the Falcons a super bowl if the defense didn't collapse.

 

Obviously he is worth it.

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52 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 

I just don't get it.  He's obviously a fantastic WR but the recent history of Super Bowel winners shows that you really don't need to spend big money on a WR or RB.

 

Yup, me neither. Particularly WR. 

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8 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Julio would have won the Falcons a super bowl if the defense didn't collapse.

 

Obviously he is worth it.

 

Maybe they should have allocated more money to the defense.

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9 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 

Maybe they should have allocated more money to the defense.

They were up 21 points at the half, i think it was a coaching implosion 

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3 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

They were up 21 points at the half, i think it was a coaching implosion 

Fair enough.  I don't disagree.  Regardless, it doesn't change my opinion on not having to pay big money to a WR or RB to make a Super Bowl run.

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I hate this dumb argument about top WR's and Super Bowls.   Jerry Rice anyone?  Michael Irvin?     Skipping forward to this generation, there are several guys who got very close:  Randy Moss, TO, Larry Fitzgerald, Julio, Steve Smith, Brandin Cooks all played on teams that were neck and neck in their title games, and certainly were not the cause of the downfall..   Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne were both paid handsomely and won themselves a title together.   

The Patriots don't deserve some kind of praise for doing it without a top WR cap hit, just because Julian Edelman has been criminally underpaid.   Also, they had a generational talent at tight end........not as if passing weapons weren't a crucial part of their success.   

Julio makes the team much, much better.   You don't find All Pro's on the waiver wire too often.  When you get one, you pay his a**, no matter where he lines up.   

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2 hours ago, K197040 said:

 

Maybe they should have allocated more money to the defense.

 

 

Defense was good enough to make it to the super bowl. Maybe they just faced the greatest QB and coach of all time.

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3 hours ago, BrianM said:

I hate this dumb argument about top WR's and Super Bowls.   Jerry Rice anyone?  Michael Irvin?     Skipping forward to this generation, there are several guys who got very close:  Randy Moss, TO, Larry Fitzgerald, Julio, Steve Smith, Brandin Cooks all played on teams that were neck and neck in their title games, and certainly were not the cause of the downfall..   Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne were both paid handsomely and won themselves a title together.   

The Patriots don't deserve some kind of praise for doing it without a top WR cap hit, just because Julian Edelman has been criminally underpaid.   Also, they had a generational talent at tight end........not as if passing weapons weren't a crucial part of their success.   

Julio makes the team much, much better.   You don't find All Pro's on the waiver wire too often.  When you get one, you pay his a**, no matter where he lines up.   

 

You only cited one example in all of that. Because there aren't any more. Perhaps that is why people talk about it so much? Because it is true.

 

You also aren't considering that the funds saved by not signing a WR will help better a team in other areas.

Edited by dmb3684

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3 hours ago, BrianM said:

I hate this dumb argument about top WR's and Super Bowls.   Jerry Rice anyone?  Michael Irvin?     Skipping forward to this generation, there are several guys who got very close:  Randy Moss, TO, Larry Fitzgerald, Julio, Steve Smith, Brandin Cooks all played on teams that were neck and neck in their title games, and certainly were not the cause of the downfall..   Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne were both paid handsomely and won themselves a title together.   

The Patriots don't deserve some kind of praise for doing it without a top WR cap hit, just because Julian Edelman has been criminally underpaid.   Also, they had a generational talent at tight end........not as if passing weapons weren't a crucial part of their success.   

Julio makes the team much, much better.   You don't find All Pro's on the waiver wire too often.  When you get one, you pay his a**, no matter where he lines up.   

 

Edelman is not criminally underpaid. He's wise enough to know that he's nothing without Brady.

 

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3 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Best WR in football

 

Nope. Came close one year (2015), though.

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On 1/7/2019 at 5:26 PM, devaster said:

You would think any OC would be intelligent enough to feed the ball to their best player, but the Falcons' OC's continually struggle to do so. And so does Matt Ryan with his accuracy.

 

So maybe it's not their faults but Julio's. Ryan is an MVP-level QB, and they've had a lot of good OCs. The common denominator is Julio not getting it done in the TD department, despite getting a truckload of targets every year.

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6 minutes ago, joshua18 said:
3 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

So maybe it's not their faults but Julio's. Ryan is an MVP-level QB, and they've had a lot of good OCs. The common denominator is Julio not getting it done in the TD department, despite getting a truckload of targets every year.

 

Julio was third in the league in targets last year, and is always up there. Seems to me like they try to get him the ball.

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54 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Julio was third in the league in targets last year, and is always up there. Seems to me like they try to get him the ball.

He rates pretty poorly in RZ targets most years. Especially catcheable RZ targets. Ryan is not an MVP-level QB outside of one season.

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Julio faces double coverage on most every play and the offense coordinator position outside Shannahan has been dismal. Sarkisian could not manage his way out of a wet paper bag. 

Throw in the fact the offensive line is a ******** disgrace and you have Ryan on his a** more times than not.

Ryan is better than he gets credit for all things considered. 

But until Atlanta fixes that O-lone ..... its going to be tough going for Ryan to have anytime to get Julio the ball.

Add in Ridley who will get his ...... Sanu probably gets moved this off season in a salary move.

Falcons have some issues ...... some good health, a new OC and a few tweaks to the O line could fix things for the better. 

Its also a make or break year for Quinn ..... they have actually brought in a coach to help him with in game time management.

Just sharing as I follow the Falcons and not ashamed to admit it.

 

 

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