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Julio Jones 2019 Outlook

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32 minutes ago, warpster said:

 

i didn't watch the falcons too much last season, but their offensive line looked gash when i did!

did they have notable injuries?

 

Falcons were riddled with injuries on both sides of the ball last year.

Lots of posturing on this thread and little talk about Julio........ I thought it was going to turn into an Edelman thread at one point.

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Took him at 19 in start up dynasty. Knew I was going to get myself into the GTD issues but worth the gamble I thought. But yeah 3000 yards is worth it lol. 

Edited by UcanTry

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nfl.com project him as the #1 WR with a whopping 110/1550/10 statline - 326 points in PPR. That's 27 points above #2 Davante Adams.

With the defense being back together Matty shouldn't be throwing a thousand times per game, but I guess this mainly affects Hooper and Ridley, right?

 

His current ADP is around 8-10 and I think I wouldn't hesitate to take him as the #1 receiver off the board.

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3 hours ago, thebadferret said:

nfl.com project him as the #1 WR with a whopping 110/1550/10 statline - 326 points in PPR. That's 27 points above #2 Davante Adams.

With the defense being back together Matty shouldn't be throwing a thousand times per game, but I guess this mainly affects Hooper and Ridley, right?

 

His current ADP is around 8-10 and I think I wouldn't hesitate to take him as the #1 receiver off the board.

The strength/weakness of the defense won't impact Julio much IMO.  Since 2011, the Falcons have had some upper-half defenses - #9 in 2017, #16 in 2015.  Not a lot of times but in both years Julio had really productive seasons so I'm not worried about an improvement in their defense affecting his output.  

The thing that has me worried and questioning Julio is this foot injury he's dealing with.  Foot injuries can be huge problems for WRs as we've seen with Watkins, Green, Julio himself in the past.  Doesn't seem like a major issue, however Julio said he's still about 2 weeks away from taking the field.  Any cause for concern or is this just something minor no one will remember in a few weeks?

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Is turning 30 years old a concern? Any data to support that it shouldn’t affect his consistent top 10 production ? 

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2 hours ago, jay2491 said:

Is turning 30 years old a concern? Any data to support that it shouldn’t affect his consistent top 10 production ? 

https://www.fantasypros.com/2019/07/fantasy-football-at-what-age-does-a-wide-receiver-decline-2019/

 

According to Tags' research, WRs hit their prime production between 27-32 and even after that have a high chance of WR2 production.  So according to this, Julio still has at least 2 years of peak level production and maybe even a few extra given how extremely talented he is.  

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2 hours ago, jay2491 said:

Is turning 30 years old a concern? Any data to support that it shouldn’t affect his consistent top 10 production ? 

His age doesn't concern me but the constant foot injuries do.

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49 minutes ago, K197040 said:

His age doesn't concern me but the constant foot injuries do.

To an extent, though Julio certainly doesn’t seem concerned.

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Well the good news is that in 5 straight seasons he's missed 2 games. Hopefully that trend continues 

Edited by Savatage79
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29 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

Well the good news is that in 5 straight seasons he's missed 2 games. Hopefully that trend continues 

I don't know why I  have him mentally filed as an injury risk.  This will probably be the first year where I won't have a clear cut player to pick over him.   But I still find myself avoiding him and taking Thomas or OBJ in mocks.  Or even both Thomas and OBJ.  I need to think harder about that.  Seems irrational. 

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Just now, K197040 said:

I don't know why I  have him mentally filed as an injury risk.  This will probably be the first year where I won't have a clear cut player to pick over him.   But I still find myself avoiding him and taking Thomas or OBJ in mocks.  Or even both Thomas and OBJ.  I need to think harder about that.  Seems irrational. 

Well I had Julio his rookie season and it sucked and sorta made me gunshy on him. I have avoided him over the years and this is first time since his rook season I went after him because he's just been that solid.

Time flies by so it's easy to lose track, but Julio might not get all the tds but that dude racks up yardage and receptions like nobody's business. 

 

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Should be the #2 WR drafted in all formats after Hopkins.

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28 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

Time flies by so it's easy to lose track, but Julio might not get all the tds but that dude racks up yardage and receptions like nobody's business. 

Beat me to it. Seems to me people are fixated a little too much on him not being a TD machine. I'm determined to get one of the top 5ish WRs on my team and if it's him I won't mind.

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32 minutes ago, bomont said:

Beat me to it. Seems to me people are fixated a little too much on him not being a TD machine. I'm determined to get one of the top 5ish WRs on my team and if it's him I won't mind.

Yea he more than makes up for lack of tds big time. Especially with bonus pts, he just seems to get it done with or without tds. Of course I'd love to see more but his pt totals every year are impressive when the seasons are done and I always say to myself why again do I pass on this dude? 

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The man wants a new contract plus the falcons are rated to have the second best line in football. Julio this year, yes please. 

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On 7/25/2019 at 4:54 PM, K197040 said:

I don't know why I  have him mentally filed as an injury risk.  This will probably be the first year where I won't have a clear cut player to pick over him.   But I still find myself avoiding him and taking Thomas or OBJ in mocks.  Or even both Thomas and OBJ.  I need to think harder about that.  Seems irrational. 

I think it’s because he gets the questionable tag a lot with minor injuries. Players are always dealing with minor injuries and I think some teams are more prone to listing them over others. This might just be confirmation bias, but regardless, he hasn’t missed many games and is in his prime. 

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On 7/25/2019 at 4:54 PM, K197040 said:

I don't know why I  have him mentally filed as an injury risk.  This will probably be the first year where I won't have a clear cut player to pick over him.   But I still find myself avoiding him and taking Thomas or OBJ in mocks.  Or even both Thomas and OBJ.  I need to think harder about that.  Seems irrational. 

Funny, I feel the same way, I'm picking 12th this year so I probably won't have to worry about it.

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On 7/25/2019 at 4:54 PM, K197040 said:

I don't know why I  have him mentally filed as an injury risk.  This will probably be the first year where I won't have a clear cut player to pick over him.   But I still find myself avoiding him and taking Thomas or OBJ in mocks.  Or even both Thomas and OBJ.  I need to think harder about that.  Seems irrational. 

 

Did you own him in 2017? I did and I know that sub par season is still lingering in the back of my mind. I find myself avoiding him in mocks as well.

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47 minutes ago, scottishguy said:

I think a decline is on the horizon

 

Thanks God I pick 6th and 12th in my leagues and do not have to deal with it

Decline? How so? What has this guy shown you in the past 2-3 seasons that would give us the sense that a decline is coming?

Dude will always have some knick knack injury but he plays through it and is a stud.  Guy is in his prime if anything...

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