Lamont Sanford

Jameis Winston 2019 Outlook

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Practice reports have been pretty good. Arians offense can be complicated and tough to pick up immediately. Going to be very interesting to see him when the pre-season games fire up.

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On 7/26/2019 at 9:32 AM, sjm76 said:

As I stated before, I think that Winston will be better this year, if anything, because he doesn't have to look over his shoulder worrying about Fitzpatrick taking his job if he has a couple of bad games in a row.  Blaine Gabbert or Ryan Griffin will only play if Winston is injured.

 

You could also say Winston has nobody behind him pushing, so he has less of a fire under him to keep the job. Two sides to this coin, and without being inside his head, hard to say which way he reacts. 

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On 7/25/2019 at 6:40 PM, CooL said:

Wow, unless this is a 2QB league, spending an eighth on Winston is pretty rich. I doubt he would even get drafted in the 8th in a 14 teamer. 

 

 He went last pick of the 10th in one of my 14 team leagues... (only one that has drafted so far)

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So I was looking at some 2019 projections over the weekend and a comment in the Kirk Cousins thread triggered me to post it here...

In one CBS league, there are 28 WR's & TE's projected to reach X point level. How many teams have at least 2 WR/TE amongst those 28 players?
--Bucs: 3 players (Evans, Godwin, Howard)
--Rams: 3 players (Kupp, Cooks, Woods)
--Saints: 2 players (Thomas, Cook)
--Chiefs: 2 players (Tyreek, Kelce)
--Falcons: 2 players (Julio, Ridley)
--Colts: 2 players (Hilton, Ebron)
--Vikings: 2 players (Thielen, Diggs)

With that said, if projections are for Evans, Godwin and Howard all to do very well this season...and their ADP reflects that fact as well, shouldn't we take that into account for Jameis Winston? I see his projections and ADP all over the place. Some are pretty high on him, but many others are not. Now I get that the receivers don't lose points for Winston's turnovers. But if you add up all of the projections for Evans/Godwin/Howard and look at the total, then Winston is going to have a good fantasy season. Just something to think about.

Edited by Corleone
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On 8/5/2019 at 8:32 PM, handyandy86 said:

 

You could also say Winston has nobody behind him pushing, so he has less of a fire under him to keep the job. Two sides to this coin, and without being inside his head, hard to say which way he reacts. 

Winston is known for his level headedness.  Nothing to worry about.

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On 8/5/2019 at 9:32 PM, handyandy86 said:

 

You could also say Winston has nobody behind him pushing, so he has less of a fire under him to keep the job. Two sides to this coin, and without being inside his head, hard to say which way he reacts. 

 

I think he has the most important thing pushing him.....Free agency and possible Dak sized 40 million dollar contract because if Dak can ask for it, why not everyone.

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1 hour ago, Corleone said:

But if you add up all of the projections for Evans/Godwin/Howard and look at the total, then Winston is going to have a good fantasy season. Just something to think about.

 

Yup

Godwin & Howard have been marked as candidates for breakouts, and if they break out while Mike Evans ALSO maintains his stud value, Winston is easily a Top 10 QB.
The sheer passing volume makes this a likely scenario, he just needs consistency.

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12 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

I think he has the most important thing pushing him.....Free agency and possible Dak sized 40 million dollar contract because if Dak can ask for it, why not everyone.

 

You would hope so.  But you'd also think a big fat NFL contract would be enough incentive to stop you from raping people, but that doesn't seem to resonate with everyone . . .

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4 minutes ago, dropshadows said:

 

Yup

Godwin & Howard have been marked as candidates for breakouts, and if they break out while Mike Evans ALSO maintains his stud value, Winston is easily a Top 10 QB.
The sheer passing volume makes this a likely scenario, he just needs consistency.

 

The projections already have semi-breakouts baked in for Godwin and Howard.  If you have Evans projected at 1350-7, Godwin at 965-6, and Howard at 800-5, those numbers are all accounted for in Winston's projections, which still only having him finish as QB16.  

You'd have to believe that either Godwin or Howard can have even better breakout seasons than those projections, or hope that some tertiary target pops up and has a big contribution to the passing game, like Perriman.

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48 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

The projections already have semi-breakouts baked in for Godwin and Howard.  If you have Evans projected at 1350-7, Godwin at 965-6, and Howard at 800-5, those numbers are all accounted for in Winston's projections, which still only having him finish as QB16.  

You'd have to believe that either Godwin or Howard can have even better breakout seasons than those projections, or hope that some tertiary target pops up and has a big contribution to the passing game, like Perriman.

 

How often have you seen a QB on a team with a legit WR1, an emerging WR2 and top 5 tight end finish below QB16? Plus Winston ran for nearly 300 yards last year.

Not to mention Arians has a history of getting RBs involved in the passing game. 

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22 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

How often have you seen a QB on a team with a legit WR1, an emerging WR2 and top 5 tight end finish below QB16? Plus Winston ran for nearly 300 yards last year.

Not to mention Arians has a history of getting RBs involved in the passing game. 

 

Fantasy QB is a tight race.  You've got Jared Goff going outside the top 10, and only about a round earlier than Winston, and he has a trio of borderline WR1 / WR2's, plus Gurley.  You've also got Rivers being drafted later than Winston, and he has a legit WR1, emerging WR2, and top 5 projected TE as well.  Kirk Cousins is going at QB21 and has Thielen, Diggs, Cook, and a pretty decent TE in Rudolph as well.  

I'm not saying Winston can't have a good year or provide good value.  The weapons he has are nice, but there are lots of other QB's going around him with similar weapons.  And some of them are in better situations, better teams, and have more brains between their ears.  The opportunity is there for Jameis to be a QB1 in fantasy this year, but things have to break right for him, and things have to go wrong for a handful of other QB's as well, because the QB hierarchy is pretty crowded.

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1 hour ago, handyandy86 said:

 

The projections already have semi-breakouts baked in for Godwin and Howard.  If you have Evans projected at 1350-7, Godwin at 965-6, and Howard at 800-5, those numbers are all accounted for in Winston's projections, which still only having him finish as QB16.  

You'd have to believe that either Godwin or Howard can have even better breakout seasons than those projections, or hope that some tertiary target pops up and has a big contribution to the passing game, like Perriman.

I think tight end in general is being underrated in the TB projections. PFF has Howard/Brate combining for 7.8 touchdowns (8 TD's). 
In 2018, the duo scored 11. In 2017, the duo scored 12. 

Beyond that, I think the TD numbers for TB as a whole are low. PFF has Winston projected at 25.2 TD passes (25 TD's).
In 2018, TB had 36 TD passes. In 2017, they had 26 TD passes. 

Realizing that TB has lost some personnel (Jackson/Humphries), TB still projects to be passing quite a bit with their poor defense and below-average running game...and many think Arians will help Winston. So projecting them for 11 less TD passes, that seems excessive IMO. 

Edited by Corleone
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7 minutes ago, Corleone said:

I think tight end in general is being underrated in the TB projections. PFF has Howard/Brate combining for 7.8 touchdowns (8 TD's). 
In 2018, the duo scored 11. In 2017, the duo scored 12. 

Beyond that, I think the TD numbers for TB as a whole are low. PFF has Winston projected at 25.2 TD passes (25 TD's).
In 2018, TB had 36 TD passes. In 2017, they had 26 TD passes. 

Realizing that TB has lost some personnel (Jackson/Humphries), TB still projects to be passing quite a bit with their poor defense and below-average running game...and many think Arians will help Winston. So projecting them for 11 less TD passes, that seems excessive IMO. 

 

That's a good point you make.  TD numbers are sometimes a bit harder to predict, but can make a big difference.  An extra 4 TD's would send Winston's projections up to QB7-ish. The other issue with Winston is trying to predict how many INT's he'll throw, and how / if your league penalizes for them.  

 That TD number is especially volatile for Winston / TB, IMO, because you're either going to have the lack of a ground game and poor defense cause them to air it out non-stop and drive the number up, or you're going to see a total collapse of the offense from not being able to generate a ground attack, and being glued to the sideline as their defense bleeds.  Seems like projections right now are going to the conservative side.

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2 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

That's a good point you make.  TD numbers are sometimes a bit harder to predict, but can make a big difference.  An extra 4 TD's would send Winston's projections up to QB7-ish. The other issue with Winston is trying to predict how many INT's he'll throw, and how / if your league penalizes for them.  

 That TD number is especially volatile for Winston / TB, IMO, because you're either going to have the lack of a ground game and poor defense cause them to air it out non-stop and drive the number up, or you're going to see a total collapse of the offense from not being able to generate a ground attack, and being glued to the sideline as their defense bleeds.  Seems like projections right now are going to the conservative side.

Good points as well. For me, I am on the side of Winston ending up with right about 30 passing TD's and think he could be within the top 7--10 in QB ranking. He could also end up being a knucklehead and/or have the poor run game and defense hurt him, but I'm betting on him doing well with his NFL future hanging in the balance, Arians having faith and confidence in him, and the improved production he showed across the latter part of 2018. 

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On 8/13/2019 at 1:23 PM, handyandy86 said:

And some of them are in better situations, better teams, and have more brains between their ears.

 

It really burns me up when someone says that. You can question his judgment in life all you want, but a guy who was admitted to Stanford is no dummy. He's definitely got brains. The only thing that derails him this year will be if pass protection breaks down on him. It was pretty good last year. The real problem is the running game which was terrible. If they can get some balance there, Winston will be even better. I don't know of many QBs that are successful for a full season in a Wild West offense. KC can sling it around but they still rely on their running game too.

Edited by FitzMagic

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Intelligence is about way more than academics and judgment is part of it. He's shown his ability and willingness to be a moron more than once. It matters. Also intelligent guys can still suck as QBs.  

But I believe in Arians and I think although it will be up and down, overall he is worth a backup QB flyer. He will put up some good outings. He's rising on my board a bit.

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14 hours ago, bomont said:

Intelligence is about way more than academics and judgment is part of it. He's shown his ability and willingness to be a moron more than once. It matters. Also intelligent guys can still suck as QBs.  

But I believe in Arians and I think although it will be up and down, overall he is worth a backup QB flyer. He will put up some good outings. He's rising on my board a bit.

 

I was referring specifically to the quote. He was saying Winston lacks brains. In watching him play, it all seems to go back to what he did off the field. He's not played up to potential, but he's not been that bad on the field. He's still not much more than a streamer in 10-12, just like Jimmy G. If you look at Jimmy's career starts he throws a lot of interceptions. They claim right now he may be shaking off rust, but we shall see. His history so far shows he's prone to interceptions. Honestly, people make it seem like Winston is Jeff George. Now that's a guy who didn't have it between the ears.

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Winston is a chucker and is going to rack up fantasy points. He did it before Arians was there and he will be doing it now more then ever. Might make some dumb mistakes but the fantasy points will be there at the end and in our line of business that's all that matters.

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I like yahoo much better because it still has cash leagues but I joined an ESPN free league and ESPN has Winston ranked as about the 17th best qb so I was able to get him in the 14th round.  That could end up being a massive steal.

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29 minutes ago, afl5013 said:

Draft him. Don't watch him. Enjoy the fantasy points after his game is over. 

 

x2

 

And know your league settings.  I had him on two teams last year and based on the turnover penalties, there was often a significant difference. 

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On 8/13/2019 at 10:21 AM, Corleone said:

So I was looking at some 2019 projections over the weekend and a comment in the Kirk Cousins thread triggered me to post it here...

In one CBS league, there are 28 WR's & TE's projected to reach X point level. How many teams have at least 2 WR/TE amongst those 28 players?
--Bucs: 3 players (Evans, Godwin, Howard)
--Rams: 3 players (Kupp, Cooks, Woods)
--Saints: 2 players (Thomas, Cook)
--Chiefs: 2 players (Tyreek, Kelce)
--Falcons: 2 players (Julio, Ridley)
--Colts: 2 players (Hilton, Ebron)
--Vikings: 2 players (Thielen, Diggs)

With that said, if projections are for Evans, Godwin and Howard all to do very well this season...and their ADP reflects that fact as well, shouldn't we take that into account for Jameis Winston? I see his projections and ADP all over the place. Some are pretty high on him, but many others are not. Now I get that the receivers don't lose points for Winston's turnovers. But if you add up all of the projections for Evans/Godwin/Howard and look at the total, then Winston is going to have a good fantasy season. Just something to think about.

I agree with the idea behind that, but you also gotta look at overall passing weapons, like Brady, Wentz, and Mayfield have a ton of passing weapons even though most of them won't crack the top 28

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58 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

Typical performance of Jameis.  The highs are high...the lows are a loooow

 

His O line just got used like a rented mule last night.  Hard to put that on Winston, but it’s going to be the reality this year.  He and Arians love to throw deep but you wonder whether he’ll get enough time to see the play develop often enough.  They’re both going to have to modify their mind sets.

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4 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

His O line just got used like a rented mule last night.  Hard to put that on Winston, but it’s going to be the reality this year.  He and Arians love to throw deep but you wonder whether he’ll get enough time to see the play develop often enough.  They’re both going to have to modify their mind sets.

 

I have been avoiding all things Bucs this year.  I love the fact Arians is there to turn the ship around.  There is a lot of work that needs to be done there.  I don't see Jameis returning his ADP value on per game basis until later in the year.  Same goes for the rest of the Bucs receiving corps.  Their numbers are artificially inflated due to the Fitzmagic effect.  Not buying this offense and not buying Jamo for a full season solution.  Rather take Tom Brady, Andy Dalton, Kirk Cousins....Darnold...etc at the ADP or later. 

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