Lamont Sanford

Jameis Winston 2019 Outlook

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3 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

I have been avoiding all things Bucs this year.  I love the fact Arians is there to turn the ship around.  There is a lot of work that needs to be done there.  I don't see Jameis returning his ADP value on per game basis until later in the year.  Same goes for the rest of the Bucs receiving corps.  Their numbers are artificially inflated due to the Fitzmagic effect.  Not buying this offense and not buying Jamo for a full season solution.  Rather take Tom Brady, Andy Dalton, Kirk Cousins....Darnold...etc at the ADP or later. 

Sorry but Mike Evans is going to be putting up big number this year, especially in Bruce’s system , Winston will have 3 big weapons at his disposal and look what he did last year half way through he put up top 3 numbers , let’s see tho

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2 minutes ago, Brye said:

Sorry but Mike Evans is going to be putting up big number this year, especially in Bruce’s system , Winston will have 3 big weapons at his disposal and look what he did last year half way through he put up top 3 numbers , let’s see tho

 

That's the hope for this squad.  I just don't know if Arian's system being implemented is going to set the offense back for a while before it accelerates.  

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3 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

I have been avoiding all things Bucs this year.  I love the fact Arians is there to turn the ship around.  There is a lot of work that needs to be done there.  I don't see Jameis returning his ADP value on per game basis until later in the year.  Same goes for the rest of the Bucs receiving corps.  Their numbers are artificially inflated due to the Fitzmagic effect.  Not buying this offense and not buying Jamo for a full season solution.  Rather take Tom Brady, Andy Dalton, Kirk Cousins....Darnold...etc at the ADP or later. 

 

Here’s the caveat with that thinking:  Put Fitz’ and Winston’s numbers together last year and you’ve got a top 5 FF QB.  The line, running game and D was just as bad last year as it is looking this year and TB figures to be behind and having to throw a ton.  Then you have proven QB whisperer Arians entering the picture, and it’s difficult to imagine that Winston can’t be a legit FF starting QB who can be had at a good price.  The upside is there and he looks like a great pick to pair in a QBBC.

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Just now, Bronco Billy said:

 

Here’s the caveat with that thinking:  Put Fitz’ and Winston’s numbers together last year and you’ve got a top 5 FF QB.  The line, running game and D was just as bad last year as it is looking this year and TB figures to be behind and having to throw a ton.  Then you have proven QB whisperer Arians entering the picture, and it’s difficult to imagine that Winston can’t be a legit FF starting QB who can be had at a good price.  The upside is there and he looks like a great pick to pair in a QBBC.

 

I get the Fitz / Winston stat line from last year - the highs were epically high and then it was pretty darn low for a whlle and when it mattered most.  

Not buying the fact that we are going to see a great return the first half this season with Arian's arrival.  I presume that Jameis is a bit "dense".  He has a terribly bad habit of holding onto the ball too long....that preseason game didn't help.  I just don't see it happening right now.  

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I don’t know.  You wait until the 8th round on QB and you’ve filled all your starting skill spots and then you pick up Winston and then pair him with guys like Roethlisberger, Brady, or Rivers who are all going later, and I’m feeling very secure and happy about my FF QB and my FF situation. 

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All I know is there wr going in late 2nd, there slot wr going in 4th, and there TE going in 5th round, it’s not a coincidence, call me crazy but what other team has there 3 receivers all going in the 1st 5 rounds, not many of any at all.  I’m not the only one buying into this offense

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9 minutes ago, Brye said:

All I know is there wr going in late 2nd, there slot wr going in 4th, and there TE going in 5th round, it’s not a coincidence, call me crazy but what other team has there 3 receivers all going in the 1st 5 rounds, not many of any at all.  I’m not the only one buying into this offense

 

That is the real interesting part about all of this.  Again - these are all projections and the boys still need to play the game.  

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Jamies is a tenth round pick and after last night I don’t see that number going up at all, so for the sake of this argument I think it’s fair to say he can be had for at most a 10. That gives you 9 rounds to draft RB/WR/TE (maybe DST, I wouldn’t but to each their own) before even beginning to focus on QB. Now let’s look at his schedule. Currently the only weeks I would feel uneasy starting him would be: 

week 4 @LAR

week 6 against CAR in London 

week 13 @JAX

There are some 50/50 games in there as well like NO or @SEA but his schedule is very QB friendly. Take him in round 10 and you can either go for another homerun with Lamar Jackson in the next round or play it safe and pair him with Big Ben or cousins in round 11, either way he’s a pretty good start to a QBBC. which if you google will bring up a great website by fantasy pros about low cost QB you can pair together.

 

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1 hour ago, Ddam2013 said:

Jamies is a tenth round pick and after last night I don’t see that number going up at all, so for the sake of this argument I think it’s fair to say he can be had for at most a 10. That gives you 9 rounds to draft RB/WR/TE (maybe DST, I wouldn’t but to each their own) before even beginning to focus on QB. Now let’s look at his schedule. Currently the only weeks I would feel uneasy starting him would be: 

week 4 @LAR

week 6 against CAR in London 

week 13 @JAX

There are some 50/50 games in there as well like NO or @SEA but his schedule is very QB friendly. Take him in round 10 and you can either go for another homerun with Lamar Jackson in the next round or play it safe and pair him with Big Ben or cousins in round 11, either way he’s a pretty good start to a QBBC. which if you google will bring up a great website by fantasy pros about low cost QB you can pair together.

 

 

He went in the 17th (12 Team) of my most competitive / expensive league. Taking him in the tenth seems silly.

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56 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

He went in the 17th (12 Team) of my most competitive / expensive league. Taking him in the tenth seems silly.

That’s where his ADP is on FFC that’s what I went off of, but obviously the later the better.

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6 hours ago, dudewithabadcat said:

"... I presume that Jameis is a bit "dense". He has a terribly bad habit of holding onto the ball too long....that preseason game didn't help. I just don't see it happening right now."  

 

It's not like those were coverage sacks. Was there any adjustment to better protect him or any attempt to slow the rush? When the down four is too much, you run draws, screens, max protect, shorter drops, check-downs... I suppose there was him not throwing the ball away, on some of them. Can you show that the rest of it was there?  

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15 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

 

It's not like those were coverage sacks. Was there any adjustment to better protect him or any attempt to slow the rush? When the down four is too much, you run draws, screens, max protect, shorter drops, check-downs... I suppose there was him not throwing the ball away, on some of them. Can you show that the rest of it was there?  

 

??  I can’t show anything. I’m making speculations based on how he has played historically. 

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5 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

He went in the 17th (12 Team) of my most competitive / expensive league. Taking him in the tenth seems silly.

 

Or it could be that your league completely  missed the mark here.  The 17th round is a huge outlier.

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7 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Or it could be that your league completely  missed the mark here.  The 17th round is a huge outlier.

 

Nah. Most just draft 1 QB, as you should.

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25 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

"I can’t show anything. I’m making speculations based on how he has played historically." 

 

So a presumption based on speculation... great stuff! 

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Kinda worried about starting him week 1. Niners secondary is weak, but that front 7 is going to pressure Winston all game

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I was the last team in my 10 team league to draft a QB and got Winston. I think he’s a great value pick that allows you to fill your starting roster and some bench before taking a QB. You know he’s going to throw and put up points with the talent around him. With Fitz gone there is much less of a chance of a benching. It reminds me of my early fantasy football days when I would always end up with Aaron Brooks because of his late pick value. 

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Anyone confident with Jamis as a QB1?

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24 minutes ago, mjb said:

Anyone confident with Jamis as a QB1?

Not really confident with him every week, but as a Bye Week and against weak defenses there is no reason why you couldn't give him a look. Using a late round draft pick there is nothing wrong with that.

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2 hours ago, mjb said:

Anyone confident with Jamis as a QB1?

I’m confident in him for weeks 1-3, and then after that I would re-assess before he plays the rams in week 4 if the O-line is still refusing to block people.

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On 8/26/2019 at 7:02 PM, mjb said:

Anyone confident with Jamis as a QB1?

 

No

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On 8/26/2019 at 7:02 PM, mjb said:

Anyone confident with Jamis as a QB1?

My league settings emphasize passing and passing QBs are much more valuable than they are in standard leagues. I was happy to take Winston as my starting QB and I was able to wait till the 10th round to take him (last team to draft a QB). Winston is great for those of us that like to fill the starting roster and some bench before taking a QB. With Fitz gone, there is much less of a risk of Winston getting benched during the season. He puts up numbers when he plays, a great example of a good fantasy QB but not a good real life QB. 

 

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