thebadferret

Kerryon Johnson 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

 

I think you're both smoking dope.

 

70% of even last year's carries would be 283 carries.  He'd easily be a RB1 with that workload.

IF he gets all those carries.

He averaged about 12 carries/game last year. Assuming a similar workload (reasonable given the same coaches), that's about 192 carries. 

But since they added Anderson and if Riddick stays, he'll almost certainly see at least a bit (if not more than a bit) less action, not more. Even if Riddick goes that could be true. 

Put the crack pipe down. 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bomont said:

Put the crack pipe down. 

You replied to a post that said "if he gets 70% of the backfield touches he'll be a low end RB2.  I proved that to be false.  What are you talking about?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bomont said:

 But since they added Anderson and if Riddick stays, he'll almost certainly see at least a bit (if not more than a bit) less action, not more. Even if Riddick goes that could be true.

The Lions began last season giving Legarrette Blount a significant amount of work.  Kerryon isn't getting less this year, not even close.  They already said they will be a "run heavy team".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

You replied to a post that said "if he gets 70% of the backfield touches he'll be a low end RB2.  I proved that to be false.  What are you talking about?

 

You can't even read what people post. Wow that's really sad.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, bomont said:

 

You can't even read what people post. Wow that's really sad.

 

You might want to go back and check yourself 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/15/2019 at 6:39 PM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

I own no shares of this guy but sometimes you just have to come into a players thread and give credit where credit is due. 

 

This RB has all the qualities I like.  Nice skill set to play on any down and any situation, which is about as valuable a quantity you can get from your RB.

 

From a skills standpoint this guy should be drafted as a top 5 RB. Unfortunately in the NFL, as we all know from the Derrick Henry saga, is that the coaching staff and play calling matter a lot for fantasy. When discussing where Johnson should be drafted, I think what people are really debating is how much will the Lions coaching staff just allow Johnson to go to workhorse status and whether Johnson could stay healthy all season if given the workload. 

 

 

From a skills standpoint, a top 5 RB has more of an ability to breakout for long TDs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Jags02 said:

 

From a skills standpoint, a top 5 RB has more of an ability to breakout for long TDs.

Tell that to Le'veon Bell

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The perfect storm is brewing for a second year breakout. but this situation reminds me of mccaffrey sophomore breakout

id say this is the year to get kerryon on the cheap, not expecting a replicated mccaffrey 2018 performance, but return rb1 status(ppr), making him a late 1st round choice in 2020

Edited by 1972Miamidolphins
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Tell that to Le'veon Bell

 

Is failure to breakout a thing with Bell?

I hadn't realized that, but still, you generally expect your top 5 guys to be breakout TD guys. Basically, you expect them to be the whole package and that's part of it

.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

The perfect storm is brewing for a second year breakout. but this situation reminds me of mccaffrey sophomore breakout

id say this is the year to get kerryon on the cheap, not expecting a replicated mccaffrey 2018 performance, but return rb1 status(ppr), making him a late 1st round choice in 2020

 

I find myself trying to comp Kerryon to Damien Williams.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Jags02 said:

 

Is failure to breakout a thing with Bell?

I hadn't realized that, but still, you generally expect your top 5 guys to be breakout TD guys. Basically, you expect them to be the whole package and that's part of it

His longest run in 2017(321 carries) was 27 yards.

 

Behind the Steelers offensive line.

 

With a top 3 passing game around him.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/20/2019 at 12:19 PM, RMJ_12 said:

His longest run in 2017(321 carries) was 27 yards.

 

Behind the Steelers offensive line.

 

With a top 3 passing game around him.

Wow, that’s uh, really bad. Bell ain’t the fastest guy, but you would think he had a break away run or 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/20/2019 at 4:39 AM, 1972Miamidolphins said:

The perfect storm is brewing for a second year breakout. but this situation reminds me of mccaffrey sophomore breakout

id say this is the year to get kerryon on the cheap, not expecting a replicated mccaffrey 2018 performance, but return rb1 status(ppr), making him a late 1st round choice in 2020

I really like that potential comparison.  The second RB who was supposed to be this big threat to Christian McCaffrey's workload?  CJ Anderson!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/20/2019 at 11:17 AM, Jags02 said:

 

I find myself trying to comp Kerryon to Damien Williams.

 

seems straightforward: one is a highly talented RB in a suspect and inept offense, the other is an mildly talented RB in a highly efficient juggernaut offense.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

seems straightforward: one is a highly talented RB in a suspect and inept offense, the other is an mildly talented RB in a highly efficient juggernaut offense.

Like the point, what do you believe?  Talent prevails?  Or situation prevails?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

Like the point, what do you believe?  Talent prevails?  Or situation prevails?

 

Situation prevails more often IMO. I've been a long time Melvin Gordon hater on his talent but I've been a long time advocate of taking him because of his situation. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Situation prevails more often IMO. I've been a long time Melvin Gordon hater on his talent but I've been a long time advocate of taking him because of his situation. 

Point taken, this one will go down to fantasy draft day, can't wait

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

Like the point, what do you believe?  Talent prevails?  Or situation prevails?

 

2 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Situation prevails more often IMO. I've been a long time Melvin Gordon hater on his talent but I've been a long time advocate of taking him because of his situation. 

 

i'd suggest that situation undoubtedly prevails in the short-term, like in redraft, but talent finds a away to surface in the long-term, like in dynasty:

drafting derrick henry in dynasty and seeing prettymuch nothing for 2.5 years was difficult, but i'm happy to have him now.

talent repays the patient.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

seems straightforward: one is a highly talented RB in a suspect and inept offense, the other is an mildly talented RB in a highly efficient juggernaut offense.

I think Kerryon may have a better situation than people think. In 2018 he managed 850 yd on essentially 8 games; and next year he will have the OC that gave Marshawn Lynch 300+ carries 3 years in a row.

Edit: the Lions also drafted a lot of Defense, which ultimately should help keep games close - further benefiting the rushing offense. The O-line is pretty much what itbwas last year, but Kerryon managed 5+ ypc, so it didn't seem to hurt him much.

Edited by Boudewijn
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The problem with this thread is that it is making me like Kerryon Johnson far too much.  I could actually end up with a Detroit Lion on my team.

😰

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/21/2019 at 10:33 AM, Sack Exchange said:

 

seems straightforward: one is a highly talented RB in a suspect and inept offense, the other is an mildly talented RB in a highly efficient juggernaut offense.

 

The Lions new OC is not exactly a guy I'd term suspect and inept. He likes to run the ball. This isn't straightforward at all for me. I have Damien Williams, Kerryon Johnson and Leonard Fournette and Derrick Henry like dead even. I'm having trouble putting them in order. Henry I love in a standard, but he kind of falls off a tad in my PPR ranking.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Jags02 said:

 

The Lions new OC is not exactly a guy I'd term suspect and inept. He likes to run the ball. This isn't straightforward at all for me. I have Damien Williams, Kerryon Johnson and Leonard Fournette and Derrick Henry like dead even. I'm having trouble putting them in order. Henry I love in a standard, but he kind of falls off a tad in my PPR ranking.

 

that's a good point that i didn't refer to in my post. thanks for pointing it out. Darrell Bevell is an upgrade for kerryon, and really it wouldn't surprise me to see kerryon end between RB5-RB10 this year. though it is odd that in order for the seahawks' run-game to finally return to solidity last season, the seahawks needed to fire bevell before the season began.

for me, i like kerryon for talent, damien for his offense, fournette for rushing attempts, and henry for constitution.

and for my order, in half-PPR, i like henry, kerryon, fournette, and damien last. in PPR, i'd switch kerryon and henry. fournette's health is just too big of a red flag.

thing is, henry absolutely has capable hands... he just doesn't get to use them as often. certainly if dion lewis gets injured, we'll see more of henry's hands, assuming mariota can pass the ball 5-10 yards. i also think the titans have finally woken up regarding henry. i'm not saying the offense will magically become fantastic, but i see henry getting a large amount of carries and turning these into yards.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He passed the ol' eye test for me last season. Shame I didn't believe in him more for dynasty, but I'm on board now in the late 3rd, early 4th in FFPC best balls. CJA makes for a nice little cheap handcuff too in like round 18. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.