dylanj

Dalvin Cook 2019 Outlook

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17 hours ago, Olliemets said:

"He fed Chris Thompson plenty in WAS. Cook caught 40 balls on 49 targets in 10 games last year, I'd say he's a good bet to get over 60 catches this season. After drafting Irv Smith in the 2nd and re-signing Rudolph to a heinous deal (not sure why they did that), I'd venture to say they'll be in more 2-wide sets, helping his outlook even more."

 

Not sure who you're referring to but I was going to mention that latter part as well. My understanding is that while Smith Jr. projects as the heir apparent, they hope to have both him & Rudolph out there in more 2-TE sets. What I read wasn't worded to mean eventually, sometime whenever. No, rather they expect Smith to see the field early on. Point being, if all goes well they're apt to run 12-personal as much as anyone. The url below is Pete Bercich, former Vikings player & now a commentator on the organization's radio network breaking down film on Alexander Mattison. Accordingly, they think this kid fits their scheme perfectly! He really came on down the stretch & is heavier than he initially listed in scouting reports. 

I realize every talking head in fantasy has Dalvin Cook combining for 2000 yards & scoring 25 TDs. I'm not someone who just clicks names... but trying to hit home runs is my strategy in the back half of the draft, not with my 2nd pick. The other thing about Cook being a fit that's concerning is that a base grouping offensively renders heavier, tighter fronts defensively. It just seems that he'd do better spreading them out & going against a lighter box, quick hitters. Also, with respect to injury it is lazy to just write him off as a top IR candidate. But also that he's going to remain clean & play at 100% all or most of the season. It seems reasonable to suspect he'll get dinged up some & not be as effective playing hurt.

This is a team with lofty aspirations & having a fresh Dalvin Cook down the stretch could be big for them! That they're going to go base & bang & get him near 20 touches per just doesn't seem like right formula. Anyway, Mattison is capable, he's not there to just fill. Don't take my word, check out what the Vikings see:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykRMtYnxqbo

 

Edited by markrc99
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18 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

Round 1 value at Round 2 prices.  (Assuming he plays 13 games this year)

I might be taking him at the turn, wish me luck. 

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7 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

I might be taking him at the turn, wish me luck. 

 

I might do the same.  Can't be skurred of his situation.  The reality is - he is in this  magical golden opportunity to stud out this year and I want some of it. 

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Secondly, I was just introduced to Mattison and I really like what I am seeing.  I am sure I can get him for a last round pick and handcuff my Dalvin. 

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Way too risky to invest a top 2 round pick on him. He may have a phenomenal year, but I cant' pull the trigger on him in the top 2.

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32 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

Secondly, I was just introduced to Mattison and I really like what I am seeing.  I am sure I can get him for a last round pick and handcuff my Dalvin. 

Depends on the league I suppose but he goes between 120 - 140 I don't think that's last round..

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40 minutes ago, Eddie Mush said:

Way too risky to invest a top 2 round pick on him. He may have a phenomenal year, but I cant' pull the trigger on him in the top 2.

That’s what I’m torn about... 10th pick in a 10 team though there isn’t a lot. I could roll the dice on Gurley, I don’t like mixon... it’s dalvin or Damien Williams I think. I’m praying I get Melvin bell or DJ. 

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14 hours ago, dudewithabadcat said:

Secondly, I was just introduced to Mattison and I really like what I am seeing.  I am sure I can get him for a last round pick and handcuff my Dalvin. 

This is one of those occasions where I think the #1 has sufficient question marks, and the #2 ("handcuff") is sufficiently interesting, that I prefer to only draft the handcuff. I don't need Cook to validate Mattison as a dart throw.

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22 hours ago, Eddie Mush said:

Way too risky to invest a top 2 round pick on him. He may have a phenomenal year, but I cant' pull the trigger on him in the top 2.

 

I don't understand how he is too risky.  We could play this game with just about every single player in the league.  Recent history has Leonard Fournette.  Odell is highly risky - no one is talking about that.  Kelce was highly injury prone for a few years - we don't talk about that. 

Especially with a young player just entering the league and having some issues early on - it is like standard protocol to tear something or break something and then end up having a successful career.  I just look at the New England Patriots because I follow them the closest of all teams - literally every rookie gets real banged up their first year - Wynn and Rivers last year.  

The more I think about Cook's situation, the less coy I am about drafting him.  Maybe I'll handcuff him...maybe not.. but he is a ridiculous talent in a ridiculously delicious situation.  Buy Buy Buy

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23 hours ago, Eddie Mush said:

Way too risky to invest a top 2 round pick on him. He may have a phenomenal year, but I cant' pull the trigger on him in the top 2.

 

So much, this.  While he has immense talent, he's been unable to suit up for 50% of his games for the Vikings.  At his current cost, he's an easy pass for me. 

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Reminds me of Keenan Allen, talent was clearly there but everyone labeled Him injury prone until he wasn’t anymore. If cook plays 14+ games he’s a guaranteed top 6 rb IMO. Every down role, catches passes, Coordinators at the end of last year started establishing a more run game and defense style of play. Weapons and qb prevent teams from stacking the box. The ONLY knock on cook and his situation is health but everyone is a health risk at the RB position. I pick 11th in a 12 team ppr and I’m strongly considering going top WR then cook on the turn. Had the same gut feeling about McCaffrey last year with his situation and role being worth the gamble. Feel the same way about cook this year 

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31 minutes ago, jay2491 said:

Reminds me of Keenan Allen, talent was clearly there but everyone labeled Him injury prone until he wasn’t anymore. If cook plays 14+ games he’s a guaranteed top 6 rb IMO. Every down role, catches passes, Coordinators at the end of last year started establishing a more run game and defense style of play. Weapons and qb prevent teams from stacking the box. The ONLY knock on cook and his situation is health but everyone is a health risk at the RB position. I pick 11th in a 12 team ppr and I’m strongly considering going top WR then cook on the turn. Had the same gut feeling about McCaffrey last year with his situation and role being worth the gamble. Feel the same way about cook this year 

 

Rumors are he will get all the redzone looks as well. If he plays 16 I think he could be one of the biggest steals of anyone's draft. But it's hard to pull the trigger on someone like this. 

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As someone who has followed the Vikings very closely for the last 10+ years, if Dalvin is healthy he finishes top 10 if not top 5. Mattison is the guy who will see the field to give Dalvin a break, or for a series if Dalvin turns the ball over (He's fumbled 9 times in 2 years of the NFL and 3 years of NCAAF while touching the ball 1,024 times, about a fumble every 113 touches. With one of those fumbles coming on the play he tore his ACL where he dropped the ball after it happened.) 

 

Zimmer does not like playing rookies in the first year unless they really show out and they force his hand, I have zero worry about Mattison taking work away from Cook.

 

The only decision to be made on Cook here is your bet on his health. He tore his ACL, and had a typical ACL recovery injury when he injured his opposite leg's hamstring, happens often as athletes over compensate subconsciously when they get back to high intensity work. His only other injuries, he sat out a game vs Syracuse from a minor ankle sprain and has tore his labrum in his shoulder twice, the first time coming when he slipped on the weight room steps and caught himself at a weird angle, and the second at a practice his senior year, he missed no time from that. 

 

That injury history does not scream injury prone to me whatsoever. He looked incredible at the end of last year, his lateral quickness and vision is elite, he has a missed tackle per touch rate of 0.25 ranking highest of all RBs with 100 or more touches, has almost 10 yards after the catch on average which is 11 among the 87 RBs with 25 or more targets, and he ranks second among the RBs with 30 or receptions with breaking 0.43 tackles after the catch all since he joined the league in 2017.

 

Of course, yes I am a Vikings homer, but the data speaks for itself. The dude makes plays and will force the hand of the Vikings to feed him the ball when he is on the field. 

 

Give me him all day long at the turn or in the early-mid second round.

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Note how all the "if healthy" caveats dominate this thread. I wonder why.....

He is not even on my draft list as I know someone will pay far more than I'm willing to. Someone wants to gamble on risk/reward, have at it. Grab Gurley too. You will totally dominate your league. 

IF they remain healthy. I personally am not willing to bet on that. 

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13 hours ago, next big thing cp84 said:

Zimmer does not like playing rookies in the first year unless they really show out and they force his hand, I have zero worry about Mattison taking work away from Cook.

This is not a bad point, but some offensive rookies that saw the field in their first year under Zimmer include Cook, Diggs, McKinnon, Charles Johnson and Teddy Bridgewater. So it has happened.

Edited by Boudewijn
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7 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

This is not a bad point, but some offensive rookies that saw the field in their first year under Zimmer include Cook, Diggs, McKinnon, Charles Johnson and Teddy Bridgewater. So it has happened.

 

I'll address this one by one

 

Mckinnon saw the field only after AP got suspended and got 50+ less carries than Matt Asiata.

Cook was a first round pick and split time three ways with Latavius Murray and McKinnon his rookie year until he tore his ACL. 

Diggs showed out at camp, and still didnt get playing time until week 4, he sat on the bench behind a washed up Mike Wallace, Jarius Wright, and a second year Charles Johnson for the first 3 weeks. He showed out, forced Zim's hand. 

Bridgewater sat behind Matt Cassel until he got hurt vs the Saints in week 4. He didn't really 'show out' but did enough to keep Matt Cassel on the bench, and the fanbase wasn't exactly being patient with our newest first round QB savior. 

Charles Johnson sat the first 4 weeks, then didn't start until week 10. He was sitting behind a 31 year old Greg Jennings, Jarrius Wright, and Cordarelle Patterson. Not exactly stiff competition. 

 

He is hesitant at best about playing his rookies, but other than Cook, the rookies had zero competent competition for playing time and even then he did not want to play them. 

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23 hours ago, bomont said:

Note how all the "if healthy" caveats dominate this thread. I wonder why.....

He is not even on my draft list as I know someone will pay far more than I'm willing to. Someone wants to gamble on risk/reward, have at it. Grab Gurley too. You will totally dominate your league. 

IF they remain healthy. I personally am not willing to bet on that. 

It’s hard to disagree. I will end up taking Cook, I think he has a nice upside a lot backs after the top 6 don’t provide. However, I also feel like taking a player like kamara who hasn’t missed an nfl game in 2 seasons is a ticking time bomb. I’m just using kamara as an example obviously the ADP’s don’t line up. The chances of a RB playing 3 straight 16 game seasons is extremely low. I’d love to see a list of guys who have done it. So sometimes I feel better taking a guy with back to back years of injuries, as funny as that sounds. 

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4 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

I will end up taking Cook

Yeah that's generally not how my drafts work ;) 

It's not even how auctions work. I hope you have a backup plan :)

Edit: unless you have first pick of course. Then I stand corrected.

Edited by Boudewijn

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2 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Yeah that's generally not how my drafts work ;) 

It's not even how auctions work. I hope you have a backup plan :)

Edit: unless you have first pick of course. Then I stand corrected.

Hahahahaha for sure. He’s ahead of guys like mixon and fournette for me is all. Jumbled in with Conner and Gurley. I’m not set in stone I’m taking him, but I do like him. Now Juju Smith schuster..... that’s my first round pick in every league 🤣 Dalvin gonna have a good year though, I’d take him higher then most. 

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Cook is on my list as a boomer this year.  Zimmer is committed to running the ball.  Period.

Cook will have a huge year IMO.

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51 minutes ago, fruitjacket said:

Zimmer is committed to running the ball.  Period.

Yeah, but which period?

Last year they were top 6th in passing attempts and bottom 6th in rushing attempts - not weird with Thielen/Diggs/Rudolph in your team. Why do you think it will be that much different?

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44 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Yeah, but which period?

Last year they were top 6th in passing attempts and bottom 6th in rushing attempts - not weird with Thielen/Diggs/Rudolph in your team. Why do you think it will be that much different?

 

I believe they fired the OC because he didnt run it enough right? 

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20 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

I believe they fired the OC because he didnt run it enough right? 

Hm, yes.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000998746/article/vikings-fire-offensive-coordinator-john-defilippo

Quote

Throughout the Vikings' skid, Zimmer repeatedly and publicly chastised his offensive coordinator for not generating a rushing attack. While the Vikings attempted to get the ground game going Monday night, the poor offensive performance, in which Minnesota didn't score a point until garbage-time, sealed DeFilippo's fate.

 

Having said that, that is about rushing effectiveness in my mind, not necessarily about volume.

Edited by Boudewijn

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If you don't factor in the health Cook is in the conversation with the top tier guys. He checks all the boxes.

1. Elite talent

2. 3 down back

3. A coach that will use him with high volume

4. Good offense that will allow him more opportunities

5. Good defense that will allow them to control the tempo.

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