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Tyler Lockett 2019 Outlook

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On 10/30/2019 at 12:51 PM, ajs723 said:

Right. This is a terrifying player to own right now. He could very easily go 4/55 several weeks in a row. 

 

You in one of those PPTarget leagues?

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19 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

You in one of those PPTarget leagues?

Volume matters. Lockett had 71 targets last year. He'll probably end this year with about 90. The list of WRs putting up elite fantasy production on that many targets is pretty much Lockett and..... just Lockett really. 

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Lockett value doesn’t change at all.  He plays back yard football.  Most of his catches are on broken routes.  He’s one of few guys who knows how to play with Wilson who extends plays well with legs.  When his route breaks down he immediately runs back and Wilson finds him.  0% change in value.  

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2 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Volume matters. Lockett had 71 targets last year. He'll probably end this year with about 90. The list of WRs putting up elite fantasy production on that many targets is pretty much Lockett and..... just Lockett really. 

Alright you can have Tyler Boyd I’ll keep Lockett 👍

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32 minutes ago, FantasyGOAT said:

Alright you can have Tyler Boyd I’ll keep Lockett 👍

The difference is obviously the QBs. But, if you told me the usage was going to stay the same, I'd say it's really close. 

Lockett has 46 for 607 total yards. Boyd has 51 receptions for 542 total yards. Outside of TDs (which are completely unpredictable... Boyd had 7 in 14 games last season) they're basically producing the same. 

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3 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Volume matters. Lockett had 71 targets last year. He'll probably end this year with about 90. The list of WRs putting up elite fantasy production on that many targets is pretty much Lockett and..... just Lockett really. 

Doesn't this answer your question though? He has been doing it for 1 1/2 now

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30 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

The difference is obviously the QBs. But, if you told me the usage was going to stay the same, I'd say it's really close. 

Lockett has 46 for 607 total yards. Boyd has 51 receptions for 542 total yards. Outside of TDs (which are completely unpredictable... Boyd had 7 in 14 games last season) they're basically producing the same. 

Boyd is good.  But no clue who Finley is in NFL.  Lockett is the go to guy for Wilson.  That td he just had in Ravens game had zero business being a touchdown.  But Lockett kept moving when play was dead.  Wilson and Lockett play that style ball together.  People who don’t watch every Seahawks game may not see it, but their connections are often unorthodox. Don’t overthink it.  Lockett is a locked and loaded WR2.

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1 hour ago, hockeyfan77 said:

Doesn't this answer your question though? He has been doing it for 1 1/2 now

It usually isn't smart to bet on outliers to continue, but I'll grant that this is no tiny sample size. Like I said, fantasy unicorn.

 

59 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Boyd is good.  But no clue who Finley is in NFL.  Lockett is the go to guy for Wilson.  That td he just had in Ravens game had zero business being a touchdown.  But Lockett kept moving when play was dead.  Wilson and Lockett play that style ball together.  People who don’t watch every Seahawks game may not see it, but their connections are often unorthodox. Don’t overthink it.  Lockett is a locked and loaded WR2.

Right, Finley obviously is a huge question mark. He might not get many chances to throw, or might not have a connection with Boyd, even if he does.That's why I said if the usage continues. In that case, I'd expect TD regression from both players, which would make them neck and neck. 

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5 hours ago, ajs723 said:

It usually isn't smart to bet on outliers to continue, but I'll grant that this is no tiny sample size. Like I said, fantasy unicorn.

 

With that logic, perhaps you really should completely bail on Lockett, because his QB has been an outlier for 8 years in the NFL.

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1 hour ago, Bryce84 said:

 

With that logic, perhaps you really should completely bail on Lockett, because his QB has been an outlier for 8 years in the NFL.

Wilson has been a great and efficient player, but I don't see how he's been anywhere near the outlier at his position that a Lockett has been. 

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8 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Wilson has been a great and efficient player, but I don't see how he's been anywhere near the outlier at his position that a Lockett has been. 

And yet-  you’re here trying to apply general rules to Lockett.   Makes no sense, man.   We have a big enough sample size to know better.   frankly-  you’re smarter than that. 

Edited by Impreza178

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7 hours ago, ajs723 said:

It usually isn't smart to bet on outliers to continue, but I'll grant that this is no tiny sample size. Like I said, fantasy unicorn.

 

Right, Finley obviously is a huge question mark. He might not get many chances to throw, or might not have a connection with Boyd, even if he does.That's why I said if the usage continues. In that case, I'd expect TD regression from both players, which would make them neck and neck. 

You are thinking of eric ebron

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13 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

And yet-  you’re here trying to apply general rules to Lockett.   Makes no sense, man.   We have a big enough sample size to know better.   frankly-  you’re smarter than that.

I get the point, but I still don't think we're fully grasping how utterly INSANE Lockett's numbers have been these last two years. Russell has been one of the more efficient QBs in the league for a long time. Lockett has been the most efficient WR we've ever seen. 

He is currently leading the league in catch percentage. He's leading the league. Better than Michael Thomas. Better than any TE. Tyler Lockett is leading the league. He's a deep threat. These numbers are bananas. 

He has an average of 12 air yards per target. That's higher than OBJ, Juju, Gallup, Godwin, ARob, etc. Overall he has accounted for over 27% of the teams air yards. And he's leading the league in catch percentage. 

Put it this way, if Lockett got the 170 targets the other top WRs get, his pace over the last 2 seasons would be... Are you ready for this:

141 receptions/2,166 yards/19TDs 

That's 471 fantasy points in PPR. Hopkins was number 1 overall last year, with 333 points. 

This is either a wild statistical anomaly, or Tyler Lockett is the greatest WR of all time. 

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4 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Tyler Lockett is the greatest WR of all time. 

 

Are you trying go claim he isn’t 🤔

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3 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I get the point, but I still don't think we're fully grasping how utterly INSANE Lockett's numbers have been these last two years. Russell has been one of the more efficient QBs in the league for a long time. Lockett has been the most efficient WR we've ever seen. 

He is currently leading the league in catch percentage. He's leading the league. Better than Michael Thomas. Better than any TE. Tyler Lockett is leading the league. He's a deep threat. These numbers are bananas. 

He has an average of 12 air yards per target. That's higher than OBJ, Juju, Gallup, Godwin, ARob, etc. Overall he has accounted for over 27% of the teams air yards. And he's leading the league in catch percentage. 

Put it this way, if Lockett got the 170 targets the other top WRs get, his pace over the last 2 seasons would be... Are you ready for this:

141 receptions/2,166 yards/19TDs 

That's 471 fantasy points in PPR. Hopkins was number 1 overall last year, with 333 points. 

This is either a wild statistical anomaly, or Tyler Lockett is the greatest WR of all time. 

Lockett is a fantastic WR, but this is more of a testament to how insanely well Wilson has been playing the past couple of seasons. The point has been beat to death in this thread, but 6 targets from Wilson is easily worth 10 targets from most other QBs. Lockett’s targets are right on the money and they are high value targets (deep ball or red zone). He isn’t one of the greatest WRs of all time. He is doing his part with one of the greatest QBs of all time. 

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12 minutes ago, FinsUp24 said:

Lockett is a fantastic WR, but this is more of a testament to how insanely well Wilson has been playing the past couple of seasons. The point has been beat to death in this thread, but 6 targets from Wilson is easily worth 10 targets from most other QBs. Lockett’s targets are right on the money and they are high value targets (deep ball or red zone). He isn’t one of the greatest WRs of all time. He is doing his part with one of the greatest QBs of all time. 

This point is well taken. I think we might be taking Wilson for granted.

Lockett's numbers are still impossible. 

 

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12 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Volume matters. Lockett had 71 targets last year. He'll probably end this year with about 90. The list of WRs putting up elite fantasy production on that many targets is pretty much Lockett and..... just Lockett really. 

 

Works for me.

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39 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I get the point, but I still don't think we're fully grasping how utterly INSANE Lockett's numbers have been these last two years. Russell has been one of the more efficient QBs in the league for a long time. Lockett has been the most efficient WR we've ever seen. 

He is currently leading the league in catch percentage. He's leading the league. Better than Michael Thomas. Better than any TE. Tyler Lockett is leading the league. He's a deep threat. These numbers are bananas. 

He has an average of 12 air yards per target. That's higher than OBJ, Juju, Gallup, Godwin, ARob, etc. Overall he has accounted for over 27% of the teams air yards. And he's leading the league in catch percentage. 

Put it this way, if Lockett got the 170 targets the other top WRs get, his pace over the last 2 seasons would be... Are you ready for this:

141 receptions/2,166 yards/19TDs 

That's 471 fantasy points in PPR. Hopkins was number 1 overall last year, with 333 points. 

This is either a wild statistical anomaly, or Tyler Lockett is the greatest WR of all time. 

Props for taking on the consensus without losing your cool 👏 


What you’ve highlighted here is the danger of putting too much stock into any one stat.  Targets matter,  but ultimately it’s what you do with those targets that determines success.   RW has proven time and again that a wr who can get open when the play goes off schedule can be highly efficient and productive.    A season and a half with Lockett, and years prior with Baldwin.   It’s just what he does.    

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21 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Props for taking on the consensus without losing your cool 👏 


What you’ve highlighted here is the danger of putting too much stock into any one stat.  Targets matter,  but ultimately it’s what you do with those targets that determines success.   RW has proven time and again that a wr who can get open when the play goes off schedule can be highly efficient and productive.    A season and a half with Lockett, and years prior with Baldwin.   It’s just what he does.    

Yeah, he makes the most of every throw, but even Baldwin regressed to the mean after one outlier season. I think Lockett will always be great with Wilson, just not this great. 

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There is zero reason for him to not get 10-12 targets per game. He is absolutely electric.

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12 minutes ago, sSektor said:

There is zero reason for him to not get 10-12 targets per game. He is absolutely electric.

I’d love to see it but they’re 7-2 not typically doing that.  It’s hard to argue with what the Seahawks are doing.

 

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STUD. Such a fun player to watch. His routes and playmaking are OP af and a shouldn’t be allowed. 

If he wasn’t celibate he would 100% be getting laid tonight. 😂

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On 11/2/2019 at 10:58 AM, ajs723 said:

Put it this way, if Lockett got the 170 targets the other top WRs get, his pace over the last 2 seasons would be... Are you ready for this:

141 receptions/2,166 yards/19TDs 

That's 471 fantasy points in PPR. Hopkins was number 1 overall last year, with 333 points. 

This is either a wild statistical anomaly, or Tyler Lockett is the greatest WR of all time. 

 

Better than than never I suppose, but this is the difference between hindsight and foresight.  Only one is useful in fantasy football.
 

On 8/18/2019 at 10:18 PM, FFCollusion said:

However, exit Baldwin, Lockett is now moving to a role, that for the 4 years prior to 2018 averaged:
110 targets, 78 receptions, 1003 yards, 8TDs, 226 fantasy points, 14.1 PPG. (would have been WR15 last season)

Hypothetically (unrealistically, but just for fun) if we were to take Lockett's production from above on 67 targets, and prorate it to 110, it would result in:
110/91/1,577/15 or 338.7 fantasy points, 21.17 PPG.  That would have made him the #1 WR in the league, T3 for PPG with Hopkins, behind only Adams and Brown.

For what it's worth, many people have been touting Doug Baldwin as a 2nd round pick for the past 4 years.  You now have the opportunity to get, in my opinion, a more talented player, with a higher overall ceiling, playing that same role... in the 5th round.

 

Half Season check point, Locket is currently on pace for:
128/105/1365/11
304 Fantasy Points, 19 PPG.


And for the trol-lulz

On 7/8/2019 at 11:29 PM, RMJ_12 said:

In the first 3 games of the season (when Doug Baldwin played a total of 11 snaps), Brandon Marshall led the Seahawks in total targets with 18. (Lockett 17)

You can't ignore this BECAUSE Lockett was out targeted by a guy who was about to be cut from the team 4 weeks later.  The Seahawks brought in 2 WR's over the offseason.  Maybe the Seahawks just don't see Lockett as a target monster.

 

[...]

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