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Tyler Lockett 2019 Outlook

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2 hours ago, Motown_Magic said:

Hot take: Lockett finishes above TY in fantasy points in 2019 

 

Not a hot take at all...Lockett has a higher floor and potentially a higher ceiling, and he's 3 years younger...big reason I traded Hilton for him in one of my high-stakes dynasty leagues. 

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On 7/8/2019 at 8:29 PM, RMJ_12 said:

In the first 3 games of the season (when Doug Baldwin played a total of 11 snaps), Brandon Marshall led the Seahawks in total targets with 18. (Lockett 17)

You can't ignore this BECAUSE Lockett was out targeted by a guy who was about to be cut from the team 4 weeks later.  The Seahawks brought in 2 WR's over the offseason.  Maybe the Seahawks just don't see Lockett as a target monster.

 

By this logic, the Saints must not think very highly of Alvin Kamara, because they gave Adrian Peterson more carries before they traded him away?

We all know how that worked out.

Tyler Lockett is incredibly talented and I've been on this train since he came into the league.  My league does give 20:1 bonuses for return yards, so he holds (in the past) a lot more value to me than standard leagues, I understand that.  I've never been a fan of Doug Baldwin, I think Lockett has much more potential than Baldwin.

The Seahawks have never been a throw first team, trying to use that as a crutch against Lockett this year is a moot point, as Baldwin was able to succeed despite that fact for multiple seasons.  I'll be the first to tell you 2015 was a fluke, as the departure of Lynch mid season catapulted Baldwin's TD rate over the final 5 games. (8TD)

Now, the next few years Seattle's run game was putrid, and Wilson's pass attempts steadily increased year over year, and I don't think we need to remind anyone of how atrocious the SEA oLine was.  2018 Chris Carson helped revert the team back to their original state of mind, and in 2019 I do expect that to continue.  But... guess what?  2018 is also the best season Tyler Lockett has ever had.

Chris Carson, From Week 3-17, averaged 19.5 carries, 89.6 rushing yards, .75 TDs per game.  That's a season pace of 312/1434/12.
In that same time frame, Russell Wilson averaged 25 attempts, 17 completions, 209 yards, 2 TDs.  That's a season pace of 409/273/3,341/34.
In that same time frame, Tyler Lockett averaged 4.2 targets, 3.5 catches, 60 yds, and .57 TDs.  That's a season pace of 67/56/967/9.
That's 206.7 fantasy points, or 12.9 PPG. 20th WR Overall, 28th in PPG.

However, exit Baldwin, Lockett is now moving to a role, that for the 4 years prior to 2018 averaged:
110 targets, 78 receptions, 1003 yards, 8TDs, 226 fantasy points, 14.1 PPG. (would have been WR15 last season)

Hypothetically (unrealistically, but just for fun) if we were to take Lockett's production from above on 67 targets, and prorate it to 110, it would result in:
110/91/1,577/15 or 338.7 fantasy points, 21.17 PPG.  That would have made him the #1 WR in the league, T3 for PPG with Hopkins, behind only Adams and Brown.

Moving to the slow, however, means there will likely be a lot more targets across the middle of the field, rather than those deep shots down the field.  So the above is a pipe dream scenario, but offered for nothing more than perspective.  I don't see a repeat of 10 TDs coming, or an 81% catch rate, however let's be clear that Lockett's career catch rate is a solid 70.5%.  You could also argue that moving to the slot would actually lead to a higher catch rate, than the insane deep routes he was continually running  last year.  I also doubt they completely remove his deep routes in favor of Metcalf.  As previously mentioned, Lockett, especially in PPR, is going to get a lot more dump offs, and scramble play check downs.

People love to take away his long catches, but let's not forget, that without Lockett chunking yardages of: 52td, 52td, 51td, 45, 44, 43, 39td, 37, 34, 29, 29td, 28, 27, 25 off the feild that Russell Wilson throws 5~8 more short passes for each one of those you take away.  So of course Wilson's attempts were down last year, that's what happens when you have a guy like Lockett take it to the house for 50 yards 3 times.  Lockett was 14th in the league with 17 receptions of 20+ yards.

So, unless you think Carson will significantly exceed his 312/1434/12 page AND Russell Wilson falls even lower than 409/273/3341/34 he was pacing during that time, AND find a way for Lockett's targets to drop despite moving into a role here he could see nearly double targets, while already finishing 16th overall last year... it's hard to have a negative outlook on Lockett this year.

I wouldn't bet my money on top 10, but top 15-20 seems easily within reach, with an upside of top 10 as a possibility, even if less than likely.  Currently being drafted as WR21 as the first player in the 5th round of 12 team PPR drafts... I think he's perfectly priced to draft with zero concerns.  Any lower and he's a steal, and higher and it's tough to justify it, as you're looking at guys like Cooks and Golladay.  But if I'm looking at SEA's #1 vs LAR #3 or TB#2... I'll have a hard time not taking Lockett, and that's in normal leagues.  I have no clue if we can expect to see Lockett handling returns anymore (that's what I actually came here to look into) but another 500 yards returning in 20:1 leagues is another 25 fantasy points, 1.5PPG, and is the jump that takes you from WR22 to WR15, or WR18, up to WR13.

For what it's worth, many people have been touting Doug Baldwin as a 2nd round pick for the past 4 years.  You now have the opportunity to get, in my opinion, a more talented player, with a higher overall ceiling, playing that same role... in the 5th round.

Anyone who watched tonight's game, should have gotten a nice preview of what's about to come this season for Lockett.  I'm buying, but I'm not reaching.

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On 8/17/2019 at 6:38 PM, wendellrott said:

Lockett will finish in the top 10 WR's

 

I'm thinking top 5 is not out the Question

:lol:

 

On 8/17/2019 at 8:51 PM, scheibler said:

 

I'm not seeing that. Not even sure he'll be the top wr on his team

:lol:

I like Lockett as a big fish in a small pond way (WR1 but in a run-based, conservative offense). He should be a consistently modest producer at WR though. You could do worse for a WR2. Just not much of an upside. 

 

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5 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

By this logic, the Saints must not think very highly of Alvin Kamara, because they gave Adrian Peterson more carries before they traded him away?

We all know how that worked out.

Tyler Lockett is incredibly talented and I've been on this train since he came into the league.  My league does give 20:1 bonuses for return yards, so he holds (in the past) a lot more value to me than standard leagues, I understand that.  I've never been a fan of Doug Baldwin, I think Lockett has much more potential than Baldwin.

The Seahawks have never been a throw first team, trying to use that as a crutch against Lockett this year is a moot point, as Baldwin was able to succeed despite that fact for multiple seasons.  I'll be the first to tell you 2015 was a fluke, as the departure of Lynch mid season catapulted Baldwin's TD rate over the final 5 games. (8TD)

Now, the next few years Seattle's run game was putrid, and Wilson's pass attempts steadily increased year over year, and I don't think we need to remind anyone of how atrocious the SEA oLine was.  2018 Chris Carson helped revert the team back to their original state of mind, and in 2019 I do expect that to continue.  But... guess what?  2018 is also the best season Tyler Lockett has ever had.

Chris Carson, From Week 3-17, averaged 19.5 carries, 89.6 rushing yards, .75 TDs per game.  That's a season pace of 312/1434/12.
In that same time frame, Russell Wilson averaged 25 attempts, 17 completions, 209 yards, 2 TDs.  That's a season pace of 409/273/3,341/34.
In that same time frame, Tyler Lockett averaged 4.2 targets, 3.5 catches, 60 yds, and .57 TDs.  That's a season pace of 67/56/967/9.
That's 206.7 fantasy points, or 12.9 PPG. 20th WR Overall, 28th in PPG.

However, exit Baldwin, Lockett is now moving to a role, that for the 4 years prior to 2018 averaged:
110 targets, 78 receptions, 1003 yards, 8TDs, 226 fantasy points, 14.1 PPG. (would have been WR15 last season)

Hypothetically (unrealistically, but just for fun) if we were to take Lockett's production from above on 67 targets, and prorate it to 110, it would result in:
110/91/1,577/15 or 338.7 fantasy points, 21.17 PPG.  That would have made him the #1 WR in the league, T3 for PPG with Hopkins, behind only Adams and Brown.

Moving to the slow, however, means there will likely be a lot more targets across the middle of the field, rather than those deep shots down the field.  So the above is a pipe dream scenario, but offered for nothing more than perspective.  I don't see a repeat of 10 TDs coming, or an 81% catch rate, however let's be clear that Lockett's career catch rate is a solid 70.5%.  You could also argue that moving to the slot would actually lead to a higher catch rate, than the insane deep routes he was continually running  last year.  I also doubt they completely remove his deep routes in favor of Metcalf.  As previously mentioned, Lockett, especially in PPR, is going to get a lot more dump offs, and scramble play check downs.

People love to take away his long catches, but let's not forget, that without Lockett chunking yardages of: 52td, 52td, 51td, 45, 44, 43, 39td, 37, 34, 29, 29td, 28, 27, 25 off the feild that Russell Wilson throws 5~8 more short passes for each one of those you take away.  So of course Wilson's attempts were down last year, that's what happens when you have a guy like Lockett take it to the house for 50 yards 3 times.  Lockett was 14th in the league with 17 receptions of 20+ yards.

So, unless you think Carson will significantly exceed his 312/1434/12 page AND Russell Wilson falls even lower than 409/273/3341/34 he was pacing during that time, AND find a way for Lockett's targets to drop despite moving into a role here he could see nearly double targets, while already finishing 16th overall last year... it's hard to have a negative outlook on Lockett this year.

I wouldn't bet my money on top 10, but top 15-20 seems easily within reach, with an upside of top 10 as a possibility, even if less than likely.  Currently being drafted as WR21 as the first player in the 5th round of 12 team PPR drafts... I think he's perfectly priced to draft with zero concerns.  Any lower and he's a steal, and higher and it's tough to justify it, as you're looking at guys like Cooks and Golladay.  But if I'm looking at SEA's #1 vs LAR #3 or TB#2... I'll have a hard time not taking Lockett, and that's in normal leagues.  I have no clue if we can expect to see Lockett handling returns anymore (that's what I actually came here to look into) but another 500 yards returning in 20:1 leagues is another 25 fantasy points, 1.5PPG, and is the jump that takes you from WR22 to WR15, or WR18, up to WR13.

For what it's worth, many people have been touting Doug Baldwin as a 2nd round pick for the past 4 years.  You now have the opportunity to get, in my opinion, a more talented player, with a higher overall ceiling, playing that same role... in the 5th round.

Anyone who watched tonight's game, should have gotten a nice preview of what's about to come this season for Lockett.  I'm buying, but I'm not reaching.

 

Well written, agree on all points. I think about the only thing DK Metcalf might take away is some RZ targets from Lockett , maybe. 

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9 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

By this logic, the Saints must not think very highly of Alvin Kamara, because they gave Adrian Peterson more carries before they traded him away?

We all know how that worked out.

Tyler Lockett is incredibly talented and I've been on this train since he came into the league.  My league does give 20:1 bonuses for return yards, so he holds (in the past) a lot more value to me than standard leagues, I understand that.  I've never been a fan of Doug Baldwin, I think Lockett has much more potential than Baldwin.

The Seahawks have never been a throw first team, trying to use that as a crutch against Lockett this year is a moot point, as Baldwin was able to succeed despite that fact for multiple seasons.  I'll be the first to tell you 2015 was a fluke, as the departure of Lynch mid season catapulted Baldwin's TD rate over the final 5 games. (8TD)

Now, the next few years Seattle's run game was putrid, and Wilson's pass attempts steadily increased year over year, and I don't think we need to remind anyone of how atrocious the SEA oLine was.  2018 Chris Carson helped revert the team back to their original state of mind, and in 2019 I do expect that to continue.  But... guess what?  2018 is also the best season Tyler Lockett has ever had.

Chris Carson, From Week 3-17, averaged 19.5 carries, 89.6 rushing yards, .75 TDs per game.  That's a season pace of 312/1434/12.
In that same time frame, Russell Wilson averaged 25 attempts, 17 completions, 209 yards, 2 TDs.  That's a season pace of 409/273/3,341/34.
In that same time frame, Tyler Lockett averaged 4.2 targets, 3.5 catches, 60 yds, and .57 TDs.  That's a season pace of 67/56/967/9.
That's 206.7 fantasy points, or 12.9 PPG. 20th WR Overall, 28th in PPG.

However, exit Baldwin, Lockett is now moving to a role, that for the 4 years prior to 2018 averaged:
110 targets, 78 receptions, 1003 yards, 8TDs, 226 fantasy points, 14.1 PPG. (would have been WR15 last season)

Hypothetically (unrealistically, but just for fun) if we were to take Lockett's production from above on 67 targets, and prorate it to 110, it would result in:
110/91/1,577/15 or 338.7 fantasy points, 21.17 PPG.  That would have made him the #1 WR in the league, T3 for PPG with Hopkins, behind only Adams and Brown.

Moving to the slow, however, means there will likely be a lot more targets across the middle of the field, rather than those deep shots down the field.  So the above is a pipe dream scenario, but offered for nothing more than perspective.  I don't see a repeat of 10 TDs coming, or an 81% catch rate, however let's be clear that Lockett's career catch rate is a solid 70.5%.  You could also argue that moving to the slot would actually lead to a higher catch rate, than the insane deep routes he was continually running  last year.  I also doubt they completely remove his deep routes in favor of Metcalf.  As previously mentioned, Lockett, especially in PPR, is going to get a lot more dump offs, and scramble play check downs.

People love to take away his long catches, but let's not forget, that without Lockett chunking yardages of: 52td, 52td, 51td, 45, 44, 43, 39td, 37, 34, 29, 29td, 28, 27, 25 off the feild that Russell Wilson throws 5~8 more short passes for each one of those you take away.  So of course Wilson's attempts were down last year, that's what happens when you have a guy like Lockett take it to the house for 50 yards 3 times.  Lockett was 14th in the league with 17 receptions of 20+ yards.

So, unless you think Carson will significantly exceed his 312/1434/12 page AND Russell Wilson falls even lower than 409/273/3341/34 he was pacing during that time, AND find a way for Lockett's targets to drop despite moving into a role here he could see nearly double targets, while already finishing 16th overall last year... it's hard to have a negative outlook on Lockett this year.

I wouldn't bet my money on top 10, but top 15-20 seems easily within reach, with an upside of top 10 as a possibility, even if less than likely.  Currently being drafted as WR21 as the first player in the 5th round of 12 team PPR drafts... I think he's perfectly priced to draft with zero concerns.  Any lower and he's a steal, and higher and it's tough to justify it, as you're looking at guys like Cooks and Golladay.  But if I'm looking at SEA's #1 vs LAR #3 or TB#2... I'll have a hard time not taking Lockett, and that's in normal leagues.  I have no clue if we can expect to see Lockett handling returns anymore (that's what I actually came here to look into) but another 500 yards returning in 20:1 leagues is another 25 fantasy points, 1.5PPG, and is the jump that takes you from WR22 to WR15, or WR18, up to WR13.

For what it's worth, many people have been touting Doug Baldwin as a 2nd round pick for the past 4 years.  You now have the opportunity to get, in my opinion, a more talented player, with a higher overall ceiling, playing that same role... in the 5th round.

Anyone who watched tonight's game, should have gotten a nice preview of what's about to come this season for Lockett.  I'm buying, but I'm not reaching.

Lockett wasn’t a rookie last year so that Kamara comparison doesn’t really hold up.

 

Great timing on your post btw!  haha

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On 8/17/2019 at 7:51 PM, scheibler said:

 

I'm not seeing that. Not even sure he'll be the top wr on his team

 

Obviously he's gonna lead the team with Metcalf getting surgery. Still don't see lockett having wr1 upside though. I was surprised he got the contract that he did, looks avg to me

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17 hours ago, joshua18 said:

Lockett has a higher floor and potentially a higher ceiling, and he's 3 years younger...big reason I traded Hilton

 

Lockett's best year: 57/965/10 

Hilton's 7 year average: 72/1156/5.7

The cognitive dissonance is strong in this one.

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1 hour ago, scheibler said:

 

Obviously he's gonna lead the team with Metcalf getting surgery. Still don't see lockett having wr1 upside though. I was surprised he got the contract that he did, looks avg to me

 

What Lockett average ? First time I've heard that honestly. He's no Julio Jones but hes far from avg. 

 

1 minute ago, this guy right here said:

 

Lockett's best year: 57/965/10 

Hilton's 7 year average: 72/1156/5.7

The cognitive dissonance is strong in this one.

 

True but, Lockett's career is on the upswing & at his prime now 26 years old, while T.Y will turn 30 in November.  Indy added a few pieces on offense, with both TE healthy as of now. So more mouths to feed , but obviously the Colts will be passing alot more than the Seahawks. At this stage in his career, I'm not to crazy about Hilton anymore. Not seeing that upside. Not saying hes gonna fall off a cliff, but his best days are behind him. 

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Alright I’ve been sleeping on him, including all last season and through the offseason. But time to wake up. Talented, clear #1 on his team (and it’s really not even close), has one of the best QBs in the league throwing to him, and the team locked him down with a solid contract. Biggest question mark is volume in a relatively low volume passing attack, but expect the Seahawks to showcase Lockett this year - and he’s got the QB to do it. 

I think he’s a safer pick than Godwin who’s going a little ahead of him and been getting all the hype, but still has WR1 upside. 

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Anyone have thoughts on whether or not he will be the primary KR this year? I'm seeing him listed there a few places, but as the WR1, can we really expect that to continue? Would be huge in return yardage leagues (like mine).

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6 minutes ago, Orion Braun said:

Anyone have thoughts on whether or not he will be the primary KR this year? I'm seeing him listed there a few places, but as the WR1, can we really expect that to continue? Would be huge in return yardage leagues (like mine).

I dont see why not, antonio brown was still receiving punts/kickoffs for awhile. I dont think it's a great idea to put your best WR out there like that unless the next man up is god awful at it.

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I think this guy really takes the next step this year. 85/1300/11. I know Wilson doesn’t throw much, but they have some serious shoot outs on their schedule. I think Lockett gets around 120-130 targets this year. 

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On 8/19/2019 at 1:12 PM, this guy right here said:

 

Lockett's best year: 57/965/10 

Hilton's 7 year average: 72/1156/5.7

The cognitive dissonance is strong in this one.

 

Not to mention the Seahawks are a run first offense. I guess you could make an argument against TY's age, but Lock's never going to get his target share, especially since the Colts are typically in more air it out type games because of their defense.

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4 minutes ago, street sharks said:

 

Not to mention the Seahawks are a run first offense. I guess you could make an argument against TY's age, but Lock's never going to get his target share, especially since the Colts are typically in more air it out type games because of their defense.

Colts defense is good. Probably top 10 this season. 

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2 hours ago, street sharks said:

 

Not to mention the Seahawks are a run first offense. I guess you could make an argument against TY's age, but Lock's never going to get his target share, especially since the Colts are typically in more air it out type games because of their defense.

That colts defense is good.

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2 hours ago, street sharks said:

 

Not to mention the Seahawks are a run first offense. I guess you could make an argument against TY's age, but Lock's never going to get his target share, especially since the Colts are typically in more air it out type games because of their defense.

I read somewhere that the colts have a good defense

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On 8/18/2019 at 10:15 PM, joshua18 said:

 

Not a hot take at all...Lockett has a higher floor and potentially a higher ceiling, and he's 3 years younger...big reason I traded Hilton for him in one of my high-stakes dynasty leagues. 

 

Dont know about all of that.

Only thing stopping Hilton is Luck's injuries.  I believe he's faster and more talented than TL.

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27 minutes ago, DLG10 said:

 

Dont know about all of that.

Only thing stopping Hilton is Luck's injuries.  I believe he's faster and more talented than TL.

Hilton’s time is waning.   They’ll be more balanced than ever on offense and TY is just one of several options in the passing game.  Good for Indy, bad for fantasy owners.  

 

Lockett steps into a proven role with established chemistry and ZERO serious comp for targets.   DK is hurt and a rookie, then it’s secondary non factors battling for scraps.    He’s going to be heavily targeted.  

 

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Lockett is the only player I was able to get in every league. I'm awesome at fantasy football, so this is great news for the rest of the thread. You're welcome in advance.

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3 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

Lockett is the only player I was able to get in every league. I'm awesome at fantasy football, so this is great news for the rest of the thread. You're welcome in advance.

 

Got him in every league of mine too.  We are like Bros, bro.  The Lockett-Down Bros.  

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Does the acquisition of Clowney change anything?  

 

I'm still torn on this guy.  Low volume passing attack and no WR help to pull coverage away from him. 

I'm smelling defenses being able to LOCK him down because there are no other passing threats on the team.  

 

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On ‎8‎/‎26‎/‎2019 at 12:22 PM, dudewithabadcat said:

 

Got him in every league of mine too.  We are like Bros, bro.  The Lockett-Down Bros.  

 

make it a Me'anage A' Trios

 

you cant lock down Lockett

a huge amount of his receiving yardage comes when Wilson scrambles

and that's like every other play

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