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German Marquez 2019 Outlook

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Thoughts ROS ?

I know for many he's been a big letdown first half, especially if one figured he'd carry his great second half of last year into this season.

He was night and day better it seems last year from his first half compared ronhis much better second half. There could be some good times to come hopefully. Curious what you guys think. It's easy to write him off after a lousy first half I know, but maybe he finishes strong again.

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On 7/20/18 he had a 5 ER game @ ARI......his ERA sat at 5.00.

 

After that game ROS:

 

he lowered his ERA from 5.00 to 3.77.

Over 13 starts (86.6 inn) - avg. almost 7 inn per start

he had 118/17 (K/BB)

12.3 K/9

8 wins

2.29 ERA

0.947 WHIP

 

The opponents were:

@LAD
PHI
@ARI
@SF
ARI
SF
@SD
STL
@ATL
@HOU
PIT
@MIL
OAK
 

Not saying he'll repeat, but.......those are the numbers.

DATE OPP WINS INNS H ER BB K
1-Oct @LAD   4.2 5 2 2 9
26-Sep PHI 1 7 3 0 1 11
21-Sep @ARI 1 7 6 2 0 11
15-Sep @SF   6 7 3 1 4
10-Sep ARI 1 7 6 1 1 11
4-Sep SF 1 6.2 7 2 2 11
30-Aug @SD   8 2 2 1 13
25-Aug STL 1 7 3 0 1 9
19-Aug @ATL 1 7 5 2 1 5
14-Aug @HOU 1 7 3 1 2 7
8-Aug PIT   6 10 3 2 10
3-Aug @MIL   7 3 2 2 9
29-Jul OAK 1 7.2 5 2 1 8
    8 86.6 65 22 17 118

 

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On 7/11/2019 at 8:28 AM, tonywow said:

Thoughts ROS ?

I know for many he's been a big letdown first half, especially if one figured he'd carry his great second half of last year into this season.

He was night and day better it seems last year from his first half compared ronhis much better second half. There could be some good times to come hopefully. Curious what you guys think. It's easy to write him off after a lousy first half I know, but maybe he finishes strong again.

I mean, a lot of it is tied to how many starts he gets away from Coors. I'm much higher on him if it ends up getting 7/12 and not, say, 4/12. 

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You guys view his strong second half 2018 as a fluke or outlier ?

 

Way he's pitching now is more reminiscent of 2017 than second half 2018. Plus the juiced baseballs in play this year seems it may be less likely he goes on such a stingy run as last year. 

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So close to rage dropping. slider is flat, doesn't want to throw it. Bottom 5 offense teeing off on his fastball. Juiced balls, Coors field.. Why is he on my team? Drafted  this dunce thinking he'd be a rock solid SP2 with upside. Nice!

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Nothing anyone can do in coors in this environment. Just a situation to avoid all together  

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2.2 IP, 11 H, 11 ER... People that trust Colorado SPs get what they deserve. I'm amazed at how many people made a solid investment in this guy this year. About to have a lot more people on the ignore Colorado SPs bandwagon, I'd say it's crowded but the wagon was made large enough to fit everyone some day -- it's more like a cruise ship.

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6 minutes ago, Motown_Magic said:

So close to rage dropping. slider is flat, doesn't want to throw it. Bottom 5 offense teeing off on his fastball. Juiced balls, Coors field.. Why is he on my team? Drafted  this dunce thinking he'd be a rock solid SP2 with upside. Nice!

 

There is a reason many people don't bother rostering Coors pitchers. It's a shame because guys like Marquez and Gray could really be elite level pitchers if the didn't have to deal with the Coors nonsense. Every game in the summer at Coors has a O/U of around 12 especially when the temps are over 90. Today is obviously a complete and total outlier but once things go downhill at Coors things can really get off the rails.

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4 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

There is a reason many people don't bother rostering Coors pitchers. It's a shame because guys like Marquez and Gray could really be elite level pitchers if the didn't have to deal with the Coors nonsense. Every game in the summer at Coors has a O/U of around 12 especially when the temps are over 90. Today is obviously a complete and total outlier but once things go downhill at Coors things can really get off the rails.

 

 

Is it an outlier?

Last 16 games at Coors:  75% of them you'd take the over on O/U 12.  Hell, a single team scored 12 runs 9 times during this stretch.  Looks like the appropriate O/U has been about 20.  I would say the place is a joke, but honestly I actually like the interesting Coors field outlier.  The problem is the juiced ball is a f'in joke, and has turned Coors field into a completely laughing stock and is making a mockery of stats and the game.  Here's those last 16 games btw, although I'm sure since it took a minute to write this the ongoing 13-0 score is out of date.
 

10-3

10-1

9-6

16-12

14-8

14-13

12-8

13-9

5-3

10-5

9-8

4-2

3-2

17-9

10-9

13-0 and counting

 

 

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Soo...if it’s such a mockery, when can we expect the home team to actually score a frickin’ run against Jeff.  Samardzija.

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3 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

 

 

Is it an outlier?

Last 16 games at Coors:  75% of them you'd take the over on O/U 12.  Hell, a single team scored 12 runs 9 times during this stretch.  Looks like the appropriate O/U has been about 20.  I would say the place is a joke, but honestly I actually like the interesting Coors field outlier.  The problem is the juiced ball is a f'in joke, and has turned Coors field into a completely laughing stock and is making a mockery of stats and the game.  Here's those last 16 games btw, although I'm sure since it took a minute to write this the ongoing 13-0 score is out of date.
 

 

 

 

I meant that it was an outlier for Marquez. Obviously a 15-20 run scored game in Coors is not an outlier. It's what many here have seen all too often and why many here have Rockies pitchers on their DND list. 

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Soo...if it’s such a mockery, when can we expect the home team to actually score a frickin’ run against Jeff.  Samardzija.

To be fair with Jimmy G back for San Fran expectations are high.  And Elway can’t find QBs so it’s not shocking that they can’t score much.  

Edited by Cmilne23
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Wow...I've been sitting him at Coors, but thought he would do decent against the Giants today. I was really excited to draft this bum this year, thought he made some real strides in the 2nd half last year, but I guess I didn't look hard enough. What a ******** bum, just destroyed my ratios for the entire week in 2.2 innings.

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Jeff smardjilla laughs at summer coors stats...

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If I drafted him this season I would not be kicking myself that much.  He was REALLY good last season.  Nobody could have predicted a ball change which is the likely reason for his terribleness.

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Yikes what a joker.. He isnt even a must start on the road. This is looking like a bust of a pick, hes in the worst case fantasy scenario. The kind of guy that burns a roster spot all year long but torches you when you trust him. Then if you drop him he might have a 2018 second half, but probably not if you keep him. Nightmare of a pick.

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I don't understand his metrics. Today he had an ERA of 32.13, FIP 10.71 and xFIP 3.91. Can someone explain to me?

 

I really know the basics of metrics but seeing some of them as HR / 9, GB%, SwStr%, xFIP, SIERA, I would try to take advantage of today's situation and acquire it at a low price.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, ramox15 said:

I don't understand his metrics. Today he had an ERA of 32.13, FIP 10.71 and xFIP 3.91. Can someone explain to me?

 

I really know the basics of metrics but seeing some of them as HR / 9, GB%, SwStr%, xFIP, SIERA, I would try to take advantage of today's situation and acquire it at a low price.

FIP is essentially based on walks, HBP, strikeouts, and homeruns.. what actually happened in the game.

xFIP is based on walks, HBP, strikeouts (that actually happened) and what would have happened had the pitcher given up a league average amount of homeruns based on the fly balls allowed.

so for example, marquez may have given up 2 HR, but league average would have been 0.3 based on the number of flyballs. just spitballing numbers, no idea what the real numbers from today are.

Edited by osb_tensor
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6 minutes ago, ramox15 said:

I don't understand his metrics. Today he had an ERA of 32.13, FIP 10.71 and xFIP 3.91. Can someone explain to me? 

 

It's best not to look at FIP/xFIP samples across a single start, particularly a 2.2 inning start.  They're basically meaningless in such a small sample.

The likely reason xFIP looks lower is that it regresses HR rate to league average, under the assumption that pitchers don't have a lot of control over it.  Seeing as league average HR rate is 1.38 HR/9 and Marquez's gave up 2 in less than 3 innings, xFIP is going to massively overcorrect.

 

6 minutes ago, ramox15 said:

I really know the basics of metrics but seeing some of them as HR / 9, GB%, SwStr%, xFIP, SIERA, I would try to take advantage of today's situation and acquire it at a low price. 

 

In standard mixed leagues, the price should be that of a waiver claim.  I can see why you might still want to start him on the road and keep him around in case he figures things out, but even with how bad pitching has been, I wouldn't be giving up anything significant to get him right now.

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12 minutes ago, ramox15 said:

 I would try to take advantage of today's situation and acquire it at a low price.

 

He'll be dropped tomorrow, you don't need to acquire him.

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, ramox15 said:

I don't understand his metrics. Today he had an ERA of 32.13, FIP 10.71 and xFIP 3.91. Can someone explain to me?

 

I really know the basics of metrics but seeing some of them as HR / 9, GB%, SwStr%, xFIP, SIERA, I would try to take advantage of today's situation and acquire it at a low price.

 

It is debatable xFIP has value.  There are pitchers that are prone to giving up HRs and those that can suppress HRs.  Nobody can convince me otherwise.

Edited by B&F

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1 minute ago, B&F said:

 

It is debatable xFIP has value.  There are pitchers that are prone to giving up HRs and those that can suppress HRs..  Nobody can can convince me otherwise.

But the ones that can suppress home runs usually do so by suppressing fly balls in general, which is why hr/fly ball matter to xfip, not hr/ab or pa.

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Posted (edited)

I didn’t watch the game but how in the world does a manager leave a pitcher in long enough to give up 11 earned runs? I don’t own this guy thank goodness but that’s utterly ridiculous. 

Edited by jstep13

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21 minutes ago, ramox15 said:

I don't understand his metrics. Today he had an ERA of 32.13, FIP 10.71 and xFIP 3.91. Can someone explain to me?

 

I really know the basics of metrics but seeing some of them as HR / 9, GB%, SwStr%, xFIP, SIERA, I would try to take advantage of today's situation and acquire it at a low price.

 

There will always be pitchers who underperform or outperform their metrics though. Matt Cain always had a high xFIP and SIERA but somehow kept outperforming his metrics. Then there’s guys like Ricky Nolasco who always underperformed. 

There’s nothing wrong with buying low on pitchers based on their metrics but it doesn’t mean they’ll live up to their metrics. If only fantasy baseball was that easy. 

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