Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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53 minutes ago, oban14 said:

Why so you can bench the wrong one each week? Should have stuck to my plan. Hock, Waller, fant. Upside with TEs varies. Downside is all the same.

True, but I would wager that most Howard owners did not draft or pickup a backup and missed out on Andrews, Waller and Hock(Fant isn’t going to move the needle.) Now they’re stuck with Howard who they can’t sit, trade, or start. Benching the wrong one is a painful part of the game no matter what. 

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Im getting to the point i want nothing to do with anything that involves Tampa. Already added another TE for next week. Greg Olsen is available but i have to wait til next week to add him. 

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33 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

I'll look forward to acquiring Sony Michel, Davante Adams, Steph Diggs, etc from you as well...

If you don't like Howard this year that's cool, but if you liked him going into the year, draft him, then dump him week 2, that's pretty bad. 

Goose egg sucks 100%. But dumping your 6th round pick after 1 or 2 weeks not due to any sort of injury? That's just not good, why bother preparing for the draft, just have your team auto drafted and chase guys coming off good weeks.

 

Like I said I didn't like him. I got him in the 8th Rd as one of the last TEs and took Waller aswell. Michel will be a bench guy aswell if he doesn't produce in Miami. Adams played the best defense in the league. Diggs qb only threw 10 passes in a blowout. However Howard is being outplayed by the backup TE and commiting drive killing mistakes. Apples to oranges

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Two weeks seems a bit early yet for a major move on him but I see nothing to make me think he's worth keeping this year.  Arians has ruined his chances at a big season. 

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4 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

OJ Howard is trending up.  In week 1, Cameron Brate had two TD catches called back on penalties.  In week 2, Brate didn't have any!

Bracing myself for -2 TDs for Brate and -1 targets for Howard 

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25 minutes ago, Proteus said:

True, but I would wager that most Howard owners did not draft or pickup a backup and missed out on Andrews, Waller and Hock(Fant isn’t going to move the needle.) Now they’re stuck with Howard who they can’t sit, trade, or start. Benching the wrong one is a painful part of the game no matter what. 

Exactly. Howard was portrayed as a high-end starter at TE. 

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                 Drafting O.J. Howard                                                 2 weeks later

 

Image result for lebron happy sad

 

 

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2 hours ago, afl5013 said:


I'm assuming I won't get any bites and will have to hold him, but the second he has a decent game I'm shipping him somewhere. 

People keep saying this, but unless your league is filled with absolute morons, this never works. A guy who had just 2 targets the first game, and literally didn't't even have the ball thrown to him at all the second game, isn't going to suddenly have trade value after one good game.

Unless by shipping him "somewhere" you mean that somewhere is to the waiver wire

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52 minutes ago, Proteus said:

True, but I would wager that most Howard owners did not draft or pickup a backup and missed out on Andrews, Waller and Hock(Fant isn’t going to move the needle.) Now they’re stuck with Howard who they can’t sit, trade, or start. Benching the wrong one is a painful part of the game no matter what. 

Considering Howard's injury history every Howard owner should have an upside backup.

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Done with OJH and the Tampa Bay offense all together. The pass volume just isn't there at least right now. Only 25 attempts last night. I would even try to sell Godwin right now while his value is through the roof.  

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14 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

This basically sums it up. A competent HC like Arians is trying to make up for the deficiencies in the O-Line by having the TE stay in more. Also, if the Bucs defense is truly legit, expect less shootouts and more traditional games plans of a balanced attack which looks to keep Winston's mistakes down.

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Bruce Arians did the same thing with Jermaine Gresham when he went to Arizona. Gresham was 2x pro bowl player for cincy, and then once he makes his way to Arians, he becomes a full time run blocker.

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2 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

This basically sums it up. A competent HC like Arians is trying to make up for the deficiencies in the O-Line by having the TE stay in more. Also, if the Bucs defense is truly legit, expect less shootouts and more traditional games plans of a balanced attack which looks to keep Winston's mistakes down.

If he wants a good blocking TE then why not start Brate, sign some super blocking TE and trade OJ to a team that wants a potential gamebreaker. Tampa could use the draft picks or players to fill-in their deficiencies. 

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31 minutes ago, cs3 said:

People keep saying this, but unless your league is filled with absolute morons, this never works. A guy who had just 2 targets the first game, and literally didn't't even have the ball thrown to him at all the second game, isn't going to suddenly have trade value after one good game.

Unless by shipping him "somewhere" you mean that somewhere is to the waiver wire


Everyone's league's different man. You find someone that has picked up a Hock or Mark Andrews and can stash Howard to see if he ever comes around, and they may think trading basically nothing for a lottery ticket is worth the risk. 

Just because you personally have never been able to pull it off doesn't mean others haven't. 

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Just now, goldpants77 said:

If he wants a good blocking TE then why not start Brate, sign some super blocking TE and trade OJ to a team that wants a potential gamebreaker. Tampa could use the draft picks or players to fill-in their deficiencies. 

OJ Howard was a first round pick because he catches well, and blocks excellently. You may not like it because you're just looking at the fantasy football pov, but any coach would be smart to utilize his blocking skills. You have to limit Winston's attempts if you dont want him to throw 4 picks a game

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Nobody is trading anything worthwhile for OJ. Nobody.

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6 minutes ago, goldpants77 said:

If he wants a good blocking TE then why not start Brate, sign some super blocking TE and trade OJ to a team that wants a potential gamebreaker. Tampa could use the draft picks or players to fill-in their deficiencies. 

 

Teams just are not that active in trades. That would be smart just not how most the NFL works. They would rather let a talented pass catcher just block all season. 

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I am buying....from waiver wire or for a  bench wr....and wait...with the talent dropoff at TE holding two TE's is ok...Dude isnt hurt....talent will come through...

I asked the TB beat writers to ask Arian on OJ's usage in the pass game. Will keep pushing every week for the reporters to question the usage as a receiver.

 

Edited by mar1kle
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20 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 


To be fair though, 0.85*0.409 = 0.34765 which means running routes on 34.8% of the teams' snaps thus far in 2019 while he ran routes on 0.61*0.601 = 0.36661 => 36.7% of the teams' snaps in 2018. Hardly any difference in terms of net opportunity. That tweet is a prime example of twisting stats to fit narrative (or Thorman simply not understanding). Running 3.6 fewer routes per game is also a direct result of the Bucs so far averaging less plays per game compared to 2018, thus quite irrelevant in terms of his role in the offense. I mean, I bet every single Bucs player has less routes per game so far compared to the 2018 average.

Last week he had 5 targets in 36 attempts which means 13.9% target share. He averaged 11.7% target share in 2018, and it did include duds, albeit never a complete 0 but he did have two 2 target games. He is a volatile player. All this panic after only two (!) weeks is quite entertaining, but the conclusions are misguided.

I get it, everyone clearly had too high expectations and a donut is always frustrating. But if you sort out the noise in the tweet above it shows his net opportunities per game thus far really isn't much different compared to 2018. Straight out dropping at this point is premature and I'd happily pick him up if available for free in any of my leagues.

 

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15 minutes ago, Alconbury said:


To be fair though, 0.85*0.409 = 0.34765 which means running routes on 34.8% of the teams' snaps thus far in 2019 while he ran routes on 0.61*0.601 = 0.36661 => 36.7% of the teams' snaps in 2018. Hardly any difference in terms of net opportunity. That tweet is a prime example of twisting stats to fit narrative (or Thorman simply not understanding). Running 3.6 fewer routes per game is also a direct result of the Bucs so far averaging less plays per game compared to 2018, thus quite irrelevant in terms of his role in the offense. I mean, I bet every single Bucs player has less routes per game so far compared to the 2018 average.

Last week he had 5 targets in 36 attempts which means 13.9% target share. He averaged 11.7% target share in 2018, and it did include duds, albeit never a complete 0 but he did have two 2 target games. He is a volatile player. All this panic after only two (!) weeks is quite entertaining, but the conclusions are misguided.

I get it, everyone clearly had too high expectations and a donut is always frustrating. But if you sort out the noise in the tweet above it shows his net opportunities per game thus far really isn't much different compared to 2018. Straight out dropping at this point is premature and I'd happily pick him up if available for free in any of my leagues.

 

 

Hey! Get that logic, level-headedness, and optimism out of here! Can’t you see we’re grieving?!

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2 hours ago, afl5013 said:


 they may think trading basically nothing for a lottery ticket is worth the risk. 

 

So best case scenario, you're trading him for "basically nothing". Which is exactly my point. He is worthless right now, and 1 solid game won't change that.

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