Joe Odam

Damien Williams 2019 Outlook

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3 minutes ago, The Cam's Pyjamas said:

Do we think McCoy is active for week 1?

I do.  Don’t know about all of us.

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hyde trade, hyped to see it open up doors for my dwill/darwin stack.

 

mccoy sign now screws up the high draft pick along with reaching for the sleeper/handcuff

 

 

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I wrote this in the McCoy thread and I’ll repeat it here.

 

 

L. McCoy Didn’t play week 1 of preseason 

Week 2 McCoy had 4 carries for 6 yards and a 1 yd goal line TD.   2 receptions 11 yards. Complete garbage here 

Week 3-  6 carries for 37 yards, 21 coming on one play. Meaning the other 5 carries are ho hum 3.2 yards per carry, against the Lions D. 

 

Bottom line is Buffalo cut him because he wasn’t good enough any longer.  They tried to trade him and no one was biting. He was a malcontent when he was traded to buffalo and showed last year what his ceiling is now. Buffalo wanted to move on with a rookie and professional Frank Gore. 

 

How long do you think the Chargers would keep him if/when Gordon returns. He was insurance for them, just as he is for KC.  Yet Reid will let him stick around for a shot at a ring because of their history! That is why he chose KC.  He isn’t going to be relevant by week 6. Clearly on the downside of his career.  And folks are pointing at this preseason as something for him? 

That 62 yrs catch and run by Williams is more impressive than anything Shady has done in 3 years.  Williams is electric in space and this whole offense is predicated on getting the ball to the skill positions in space. This the the NFL version of Golden state Warriors. And McCoy is now only 3.yards and a cloud of dust.  Good luck to those counting on a McCoy to lead them anywhere. 

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7 hours ago, wideopen21 said:

 

Exactly. And Reid saw that happen last year to Hunt so you know he is going to make sure the have a decent RB to backup Damien. And I am sure Mccoy will get some carries to spell Damien, I just don't see Mccoy killing Damien's value and rediscovering his elite rushing ability at 31.  

 

So you think Hunt's backup last year was uninspiring, but you like Damien Williams this year?

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3 hours ago, Felicia's Bye said:

So you think Hunt's backup last year was uninspiring, but you like Damien Williams this year?

 

I have no idea how to came up with that from my post.. Reid saw how important it was to have a guy like Damien step in and produce when hunt went was unable to play. So it makes sense for him to want solid depth at RB. 

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reposting from McCoy thread: 

admittedly as someone who went hard to draft Damien & Darwin this year prior to the McCoy trade. I have my main auction league draft remaining, and I look at the KC backfield as is:
1. McCoy was signed to get action. Reid is a believer in him, and $3 million in guaranteed cash signals playing time. That being said, I'm confident he's going to get overdrafted in my league and I won't be willing to pay that price for McCoy. 
2. Damien's value slides. . . I had been begging him late 2nd/early 3rd and I think he drops a full round here. This isn't a slam on either of these backs talent, simply that opportunity is going to decrease in a potent, RB-friendly offense. 
3. Darwin Thompson's value is still unchanged. I have also gunned for those rookie/high upside backup RBs in potent offenses as draft targets, ESPECIALLY in keeper leagues (Conner was my 'must draft' player last year), and I see him as having the ability to overtake Damien, either due to talent or Damien injury, AND after a one year McCoy contract, may not have to compete with him either. Bonus points if stars align for this year, but at his current price, I'm still game to roll the dice in redraft leagues, though I'd probably shift to Darrell Henderson first, whereas I previously preferred Darwin. Still like both of these guys over Singletary or Mattison.

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14 hours ago, TedStriker said:

What makes it fluky is that almost every fantasy team is drafting RB's with risk similar to Damien where either the talent or the situation is not a slam dunk (RBBC or whatever). Unfortunately, we have to draft these guys and we need them to produce because RB's are the name of the game and there are only a handful that do not carry the same risk unless, of course, they get injured, hold out for more money, beat their girlfriend, etc.

Yes, Damien had risk of being replaced this year but so do 15 other RB's. The fact that he stepped on the landmine doesn't mean that people who drafted him made some grave miscalculation. McCoy going to KC over San Diego, Tennessee, Raiders, Packers, 49ers, Miami, etc is just a bad break for Damien owners but it could easily have happened to someone who drafted Aaron Jones or Austin Ekeler or Josh Jacobs. How is that not fluky? You can't predict that and unless you can draft Saquon and Kamara then you're going to have some element of luck come into play with at least one of your RB's since all the other guys are at risk of being replaced because they aren't ultra talented or their situation is not ideal.

 

People who drafted Williams DID make a grave miscalculation, and it wasn't fluky at all.  All the information was screaming out that he wasn't going to be a 250 touch guy.  I won't repeat it all, but there is probably 20 pages of it on this thread.  The only uncertainty from the Anti-Williams camp was who was going to take that load away from Williams?

 

On 8/1/2019 at 5:17 PM, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

Pure baseless speculation on my part, but I wouldn't rule out LeSean McCoy working his way back to Andy Reid.

 

In regards to not being able to predict that, see above.

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This backfield sure appears it will be a RBBC.  Think Patriots.

I don't think they're gonna hitch their wagon entirely to a 31yo RB (no matter how good he is/was).  AP is about the only post-30yo RB I can think of that was a bellcow, and it was simply because he HAD TO BE with Guice going down.

I was pretty much in on DWill, knowing that it would be a RBBC with him getting most of the work, and Darwin getting worked in, likely more as the season progressed.

Now, it's a mess.  Heck, even Darrell Williams might get the GL runs and then you've got a HUGE mess.

It's attractive because it's a high powered offense.  It's a mess, because NOBODY (including you) KNOWS how they're going to use them.

It's nothing but a lottery ticket to draft any of these guys, unless you draft at least a couple and wait to see how it shakes out.

 

Heck, McCoy could pull his hammy again in week 4, and DWill could get benched for fumbling and Darwin Thompson could run away with the job by week 5.
Only to have McCoy get healthy by week 10/11 and ruin your fantasy playoffs.

 

It's messy.  

 

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Let's go through what has happened here with Damien -

1.  Produces very well in a small sample size, being the 3rd RB through after Hunt and Ware

2.  Only gets a very modest contract extension

3.  Gets vocal support from the OC and the HC that he is the guy

4.  Begins camp hurt, and Reid "sounds frustrated" at how long it is taking him to get back

5.  Reid starts talking about a committee, backing off his earlier comments

6.  Reid starts giving Darwin Thompson reps with the 1st team and also a lot of goalline work in practice

7.  Reid signs Shady to a 1 year contract with more guaranteed money than Williams got for 2

Given the above, I don't see how anyone can be confident in Williams.  Sure he had that one TD catch, but that's just one play.

I'm not touching him.  Of course, there is so much uncertainty here that anything can happen and I could be wrong, but the actions that KC have taken sure seem like Williams is not "the guy".

 

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8 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

Let's go through what has happened here with Damien -

1.  Produces very well in a small sample size, being the 3rd RB through after Hunt and Ware

2.  Only gets a very modest contract extension

3.  Gets vocal support from the OC and the HC that he is the guy

4.  Begins camp hurt, and Reid "sounds frustrated" at how long it is taking him to get back

5.  Reid starts talking about a committee, backing off his earlier comments

6.  Reid starts giving Darwin Thompson reps with the 1st team and also a lot of goalline work in practice

7.  Reid signs Shady to a 1 year contract with more guaranteed money than Williams got for 2

Given the above, I don't see how anyone can be confident in Williams.  Sure he had that one TD catch, but that's just one play.

I'm not touching him.  Of course, there is so much uncertainty here that anything can happen and I could be wrong, but the actions that KC have taken sure seem like Williams is not "the guy".

 

 

2.  Of course it was modest.  He was extended during the season after 2 starts.  

6.  Carlos Hyde received the majority of 1st team reps when Damien was out.  Darwin Thompson is 5'8/200 lbs.  I don't think anyone views him as a threat for goal line carries.

7.  Kind of irrelevant given the timing of each of the contracts. 

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23 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

Let's go through what has happened here with Damien -

1.  Produces very well in a small sample size, being the 3rd RB through after Hunt and Ware

2.  Only gets a very modest contract extension

3.  Gets vocal support from the OC and the HC that he is the guy

4.  Begins camp hurt, and Reid "sounds frustrated" at how long it is taking him to get back

5.  Reid starts talking about a committee, backing off his earlier comments

6.  Reid starts giving Darwin Thompson reps with the 1st team and also a lot of goalline work in practice

7.  Reid signs Shady to a 1 year contract with more guaranteed money than Williams got for 2

Given the above, I don't see how anyone can be confident in Williams.  Sure he had that one TD catch, but that's just one play.

I'm not touching him.  Of course, there is so much uncertainty here that anything can happen and I could be wrong, but the actions that KC have taken sure seem like Williams is not "the guy".

 

 

Watch the games. Damien is extremely tented. Unless Reid just hates him as a human being he is the best RB.

 

It's more likely that Reid gave his buddy mccoy a nice retirement package.

 

I truly think this means that Reid thinks Williams can't make it through a whole season healthy, he already criticized how long it took him to come back. I don't think the talent is in question. I think Andy is nervous about Damien williams staying healthy (rightfully so) so they brought in McCoy, who Reid likes, and gave him a nice vet contract to back up Damien Williams since he has an extensive injury history and get a handful of snaps per game. I don't think KC envisions Williams as a 20+touch per game RB. They want to keep his per play production at a high level so they need to limit his touches just a bit due to his injury history, I think Reid was unsatisfied with Darrell and Darwin as taking the load of Williams got hurt so he signed McCoy who he is familiar with. 

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
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21 minutes ago, wekko368 said:

 

6.  Darwin Thompson is 5'8/200 lbs.  I don't think anyone views him as a threat for goal line carries.

 

 

Except for a few dumbasses like me.  Oh, and Andy Reid.  Size doesn’t mean as much near the goal line as power and the ability to hit a narrow seam quickly and then lowering the pads for leverage and moving forward an extra yard or two.  

 

https://www.5thdownfantasy.com/player-news/darwin-thompson-is-getting-goal-line-work/

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50 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

Let's go through what has happened here with Damien -

1.  Produces very well in a small sample size, being the 3rd RB through after Hunt and Ware

2.  Only gets a very modest contract extension

3.  Gets vocal support from the OC and the HC that he is the guy

4.  Begins camp hurt, and Reid "sounds frustrated" at how long it is taking him to get back

5.  Reid starts talking about a committee, backing off his earlier comments

6.  Reid starts giving Darwin Thompson reps with the 1st team and also a lot of goalline work in practice

7.  Reid signs Shady to a 1 year contract with more guaranteed money than Williams got for 2

Given the above, I don't see how anyone can be confident in Williams.  Sure he had that one TD catch, but that's just one play.

I'm not touching him.  Of course, there is so much uncertainty here that anything can happen and I could be wrong, but the actions that KC have taken sure seem like Williams is not "the guy".

 

 

McCoy was a free agent who had other teams interested in his services so it's not surprising he'd get a better deal than Williams who signed an extension mid season. 

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19 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Except for a few dumbasses like me.  Oh, and Andy Reid.  Size doesn’t mean as much near the goal line as power and the ability to hit a narrow seam quickly and then lowering the pads for leverage and moving forward an extra yard or two.  

 

With RBs, more size generally translates into more power.  And don't read too much into Darwin getting goal line reps in practice.  At that time, he was the #2 RB, right?  It would be irresponsible if they didn't prepare him.

Edited by wekko368
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7 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

McCoy was a free agent who had other teams interested in his services so it's not surprising he'd get a better deal than Williams who signed an extension mid season. 

 

Agreed-   Don’t get hung up on the exact figures.  Reid likes shady but I’ll favor DW for at least week 1.   Could change quickly but that’s not a given 

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16 minutes ago, wekko368 said:

 

With RBs, more size generally translates into more power.  And don't read too much into Darwin getting goal line reps in practice.  At that time, he was the #2 RB, right?  It would be irresponsible if they didn't prepare him.

 

Go ahead.  Find something that shows Williams is more powerful than Thompson.  

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Agreed-   Don’t get hung up on the exact figures.  Reid likes shady but I’ll favor DW for at least week 1.   Could change quickly but that’s not a given 

 

Yeah, I don't think anything is a given in KC right now. I think it's Williams job but McCoy will definitely cut into his production a little and could take over if Williams stumbles out of the gate. It's also possible Williams explodes out of the gates and McCoy is merely 5-8 carry a game guy. 

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It amazes me how many people continue to sleep on the starting RB on an Andy Reid team. Whether its in Philly or KC, the starting RB on his teams has been a top 8 fantasy RB the past DECADE! Half of those years they have been top 3. I take the starting Reid RB everywhere I can and always get them and they pay off big time. Williams is a top 5 RB and people have him going in the 5th lol, clueless. Kareem Hunt wasn't a sexy name but I grabbed him in the 2nd round a few years back and everyone thought I was nuts taking him that early. Yea, that Monday night game first game he played where he spanked the Patriots for 26 points validated that, rest is history. I had Hunt the last two years (which worked out pretty well by the way) because our league slept on him too, and I grabbed Williams as soon as Hunt was gone. Nearly won our league but lost in the championship game. I plan on buying Williams back in our auction today and will hopefully get him back cheap. Keep sleeping on Reid starting RBs! 

Edited by Dexter75
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3 hours ago, Brownsfan74 said:

Let's go through what has happened here with Damien -

1.  Produces very well in a small sample size, being the 3rd RB through after Hunt and Ware

2.  Only gets a very modest contract extension

3.  Gets vocal support from the OC and the HC that he is the guy

4.  Begins camp hurt, and Reid "sounds frustrated" at how long it is taking him to get back

5.  Reid starts talking about a committee, backing off his earlier comments

6.  Reid starts giving Darwin Thompson reps with the 1st team and also a lot of goalline work in practice

7.  Reid signs Shady to a 1 year contract with more guaranteed money than Williams got for 2

Given the above, I don't see how anyone can be confident in Williams.  Sure he had that one TD catch, but that's just one play.

I'm not touching him.  Of course, there is so much uncertainty here that anything can happen and I could be wrong, but the actions that KC have taken sure seem like Williams is not "the guy".

 

Not touching a RB in the Chiefs offense is foolish.

Williams will be a RB2 in PPR leagues.

McCoy will be an RB3/flex. 

Both have good fantasy value.

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10 minutes ago, Dexter75 said:

It amazes me how many people continue to sleep on the starting RB on an Andy Reid team. Whether its in Philly or KC, the starting RB on his teams has been a top 8 fantasy RB the past DECADE! Half of those years they have been top 3. I take the starting Reid RB everywhere I can and always get them and they pay off big time. Williams is a top 5 RB and people have him going in the 5th lol, clueless. Kareem Hunt wasn't a sexy name but I grabbed him in the 2nd round a few years back and everyone thought I was nuts taking him that early. Yea, that Monday night game first game he played where he spanked the Patriots for 26 points validated that, rest is history. I had Hunt the last two years (which worked out pretty well by the way) because our league slept on him too, and I grabbed Williams as soon as Hunt was gone. Nearly won our league but lost in the championship game. I plan on buying Williams back in our auction today and will hopefully get him back cheap. Keep sleeping on Reid starting RBs! 

 

Yeah, I think we all agree that if Damien is the starter all year he'll be really really good. 

The question is whether he holds on to the job and whether McCoy makes things more complicated.

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4 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

Yeah, I think we all agree that if Damien is the starter all year he'll be really really good. 

The question is whether he holds on to the job and whether McCoy makes things more complicated.

 

This isn't 2013. McCoy is on the wrong side of 31 and coming off 5 injuries in the past year and a terrible season. Hes not a starting RB, he's a backup and a shell of himself. Anyone who thinks he's just going to walk into KC and go back to 2013 Shady is nuts. Hes going to get 4-5 touches a game when Williams needs a rest, thats about it. 

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2 minutes ago, Dexter75 said:

 

This isn't 2013. McCoy is on the wrong side of 31 and coming off 5 injuries in the past year and a terrible season. Hes not a starting RB, he's a backup and a shell of himself. Anyone who thinks he's just going to walk into KC and go back to 2013 Shady is nuts. Hes going to get 4-5 touches a game when Williams needs a rest, thats about it. 

 

Yeah, I've been saying pretty much the same and getting yelled at by McCoy truthers but you can't deny that the signing wasn't the best news for Williams.

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3 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

Yeah, I've been saying pretty much the same and getting yelled at by McCoy truthers but you can't deny that the signing wasn't the best news for Williams.

 

Its great news for me as a Willams owner! Our draft is in two hours and I can auction him and buy him back even cheaper than I would have before McCoy signed lol. 

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