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rdf8585

Sonny Gray 2019 Outlook

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Sonny Gray's 2019 outlook might depend entirely which team he's playing for.

 

Consider his home/road splits in 2018.

 

In Yankee Stadium: 59.1 IP, 78 H (11 HR), 35 BB, 55 K, 6.98 ERA, 1.900 WHIP

Away from Yankee Stadium: 71.0 IP, 60 H (3 HR), 22 BB, 78 K, 3.17 ERA, 1.150 WHIP

 

Gray's name has been widely circulated in trade rumors all winter. But for now, he remains in New York, a bad situation all-around for his fantasy value. Aside from not being able to pitch effectively in Yankee Stadium, their rotation has no room for him. It's possible they'll get more aggressive about moving him now that CC has been cleared after a heart issue.

 

One intriguing destination would be Cincy, where he would be reunited with his Vanderbilt pitching coach, Derek Johnson.

 

If he gets out of New York, Gray's value would potentially shoot way up in almost any other situation. Anyone targeting him as a sleeper?

Edited by rdf8585

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he might be worth a late round draft because i think hell have a good year if yanks trade him to NL.  cinci would be solid, i think padres even better.  even the brewers or cubs could be a destination? maybe cards?  i think hed fit in well with a lot of those teams.  rockies always seem to need pitching too.  

 

that said, yanks might be keeping him as CC insurance which basically makes him worthless

 

even trading him back to oakland with some money for a good prospect. well see i guess

Edited by jfazz23

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Increased rumors about Cincy.  Not a ballpark upgrade, that's for sure.  Maybe being reunited with his old pitching coach will help.  

 

Not someone I'll be targeting on draft day other than late, late round flier time.

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11 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Heading to Cincy.

 

edit...

 

 

actually saw it on CBS...but now there is a subsequest post saying not official yet :huh:

 

NYY.png
 
by RotoWire Staff
(18 mins ago) Gray was sent from the Yankees to the Redsin exchange for a player to be named later and cash Friday, soruce reports.

After a strong start to his career in Oakland, Gray sputtered with the Yankees, posting a 4.90 ERA last season and losing his place in the starting rotation. The underlying numbers suggest his step back was much smaller, as he posted a respectable 4.17 FIP, so the Reds will be banking on the fact that his skills are still there. The righty will trade one tough park for another and sees his chances at wins go down, but a much firmer place in a starting rotation is nevertheless a boost to his fantasy value.

 

 

 
by RotoWire Staff
(7 mins ago) The Reds have yet to officially trade for Gray.

Reports earlier in the day suggested a deal was close. There was an erroneous report making the rounds on Twitter suggesting that the deal was finalized, but Gray remains a member of the Yankees for now. Gray could well end up on the Reds shortly, as the team is a logical destination, but a deal is not yet done.

Edited just now by Members_Only_76

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Yeah he's out of Yankee stadium but is GAB really THAT much better of a ballpark? It's not like he's returning to the Colosseum or something. Plus NL Central looks tough with the Brewers, Cardinals (improved),  and a Cubs bounce-back. 

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6 hours ago, Ecofolux said:

Yeah he's out of Yankee stadium but is GAB really THAT much better of a ballpark? It's not like he's returning to the Colosseum or something. Plus NL Central looks tough with the Brewers, Cardinals (improved),  and a Cubs bounce-back. 

It's not. From ESPN:

MLB Park Factors - 2018
RK PARK NAME RUNS HR H 2B 3B BB
1 Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati, Ohio) 1.128 1.395 1.023 1.038 1.364 1.160
2 Coors Field (Denver, Colorado) 1.271 1.280 1.233 1.475 2.025 1.005
3 Globe Life Park in Arlington (Arlington, Texas) 1.352 1.273 1.171 1.165 1.957 1.096
4 Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania) 1.042 1.190 0.980 0.967 0.879 0.943
5 Nationals Park (Washington, D.C.) 1.134 1.173 1.084 1.219 0.821 1.051
6 Yankee Stadium (New York, New York) 1.126 1.166 1.103 0.912 0.714 1.140

 

I was looking to target him pretty heavily in the late rounds depending on his new home, but if it's Cincy I'll pass. I'm not quite sure what the Reds are doing giving up 2-3 prospects for 1 year of Gray after how poorly pitched in Yankee Stadium last year. Why not look to sign a groundball pitcher like Keuchel?

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Assuming he goes to Cincy, who gets the boot from their rotation... Tyler Mahle? The additions of Wood and Roark crowded things a little.

 

From their depth chart on mlb.com....

 

ROTATION

1. A. DeSclafani

2. L. Castillo

3. T. Roark

4. A. Wood

5. T. Mahle

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Given Alex Wood and Desclafani injurt history. That is far from crowded. More like necessary.

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19 hours ago, rdf8585 said:

Assuming he goes to Cincy, who gets the boot from their rotation... Tyler Mahle? The additions of Wood and Roark crowded things a little.

 

From their depth chart on mlb.com....

 

ROTATION

1. A. DeSclafani

2. L. Castillo

3. T. Roark

4. A. Wood

5. T. Mahle

Maybe DeSclafani since he is brittle? Move him to the pen? Either way he is going to get hurt if he makes it through ST. 

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19 hours ago, rdf8585 said:

 

 

14 hours ago, rdf8585 said:

 

 

 

 

anyone know anything about long? is he a solid prospect?

 

i think this is good for gray.  i think the padres would have been better but this greatly increases value.

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Gray is somebody that I'm buying in all leagues at his current price. 

 

Huge BABIP last year, Moving to the NL, Great numbers outside of Yankee Stadium (psychological issue), and he's now working with the best pitching coach in the game who also happens to be his old college coach. 

 

He'll be an SP2-3, going at an SP6+ price.

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On 1/19/2019 at 10:35 AM, meh2 said:

It's not. From ESPN:

MLB Park Factors - 2018
RK PARK NAME RUNS HR H 2B 3B BB
1 Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati, Ohio) 1.128 1.395 1.023 1.038 1.364 1.160
2 Coors Field (Denver, Colorado) 1.271 1.280 1.233 1.475 2.025 1.005
3 Globe Life Park in Arlington (Arlington, Texas) 1.352 1.273 1.171 1.165 1.957 1.096
4 Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania) 1.042 1.190 0.980 0.967 0.879 0.943
5 Nationals Park (Washington, D.C.) 1.134 1.173 1.084 1.219 0.821 1.051
6 Yankee Stadium (New York, New York) 1.126 1.166 1.103 0.912 0.714 1.140

 

I was looking to target him pretty heavily in the late rounds depending on his new home, but if it's Cincy I'll pass. I'm not quite sure what the Reds are doing giving up 2-3 prospects for 1 year of Gray after how poorly pitched in Yankee Stadium last year. Why not look to sign a groundball pitcher like Keuchel?

 

Gray's problems with YS are psychological. He's never had a problem pitching in small parks. 

Some guys just can't make it in New York.

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On 1/19/2019 at 12:55 AM, Ecofolux said:

It's not like he's returning to the Colosseum

Had no idea he pitched in Rome!

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On 2/14/2019 at 8:39 AM, Kirito-Sama said:

 

Gray's problems with YS are psychological. He's never had a problem pitching in small parks. 

Some guys just can't make it in New York.

 

im starting to agree with you.  he looked good in his first spring outing.  just got him in the mid 200s in a deep 12 teamer h2h.  competitive league too

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Even assuming he gets his own house in order he is in a brutal division in a brutal ballpark.  

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So, small sample size in spring but his Opponent Quality was at 8.6, which is high for spring training - something like AAAA competition.

10 IP, 5H, 1ER, 0BB:11K

I'm intrigued.

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Not a good first start but I expect it should get better. I have a couple shares of him this season. Take last season out of the mix his numbers are front line starter worthy. As long as he remains healthy of course. 

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