Homerj24

Matt Chapman 2019 Outlook

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The surgery was on his non-throwing arm and is a very simple rehab, he also had a small procedure to relieve pain in his thumb.  If anything I’m even more encouraged thinking he was playing with minor injuries all last year that should be fixed going into next season.  Let’s just hope he keeps rolling like he was in the second half and we’ll be looking at a top tier 3rd baseman for years to come.

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Not crazy about him in the 2-hole kind of creates a situation where his RBI can become a bit of a liability.  He was elite run scorer, one of only 4 3B to score 100 runs, but when you look at him at 3B where he ranks heading into 2019:

 

I think 12 3B had more RBI than he did and that does not include Donaldson and Bryant, who people think will have 2019 bouncebacks.  I think he will be a little overdrafted this year.  He is that type of player that some tend to mancrush over.  Great real player, really fun to watch him play 3B and is a good fantasy player but I think his numbers can be matched or similar type numbers several rounds later.   

 

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Various projections listed in fangraphs seem to love him. Second half strides were great, but these projections seem like the higher end of possibilities. I'm probably a bit skeptical because I'm keeping him, but if he can produce a composite of the projections (I think fans projections are readers), then he would give something like:

.260/.340/.490 with 28 HR 90 runs, 85 rbi, and 4 SB. That's a slightly lighter version of Suarez.

 

In reality, if he hits like that and his glove continues to shine, he's a dark horse MVP. In fantasy, he should be a solid producer. I think the drop off after his tier of players gets dicey, so I wouldn't hesitate to reach for him (ADP a little after 80, based on December data)

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You know how when you talk about fishing you never give up your best spot, but will happily talk other good spots you know people are already aware of? That's Chapman when I talk fantasy baseball with my friends that I'm in league(s) with. 

 

The lower reservoir? Hmm.. don't know if it's any good, I don't even think there's a road to get your boat there, the upper reservoir has a boat ramp so why bother...

 

The growth last year was spectacular... Avg up 44 points, cut his swinging strikes 3%, K down 5%, while he maintained his walks and ISO... oh and grew his hard hit rate 7%... end result was boosting wRC+ from 109 to 137.

 

So... 2018 he had .278 AVG, .864 OPS, 9% BB, 23% K, .230 ISO, 8.8% SwStr, 43% Hard Hit... oh but wait, that was his overall numbers which included playing through a bad thumb injury for a month that caused a DL stint... 

 

After he came back from DL? Well his 2nd half was: .309 Avg, 961 .OPS, .405 wOVA, .282 ISO, 162 wRC+.

 

Personally, I think he's going to be an all out superstar this year... AL Arenado... now numbers won't be quite as good in Oakland instead of Colorado, but you get the point. 

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image.png.7300880a3b2a44a51c819c82675b798f.png

 

He made significant strides in lowering his popups throughout the year. I'm wondering if this is a fluke or if this could be sticky. I don't know how many batted balls are needed to form a significant sample. 

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https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/03/06/fantasy-baseball-breakout-players-matt-chapman-mike-clevinger-eloy-jimenez

 

Quote

Nolan Arenado’s glove played at a high level the day he stepped foot on an MLB field. He showed promise with the bat his rookie year, but hit just .267/.301/.405 with 10 homers. He made significant strides in year two, slashing .287/.328/.500 with 18 homers while winning his second straight Gold Glove. In his third year, he became the superstar we know today, posting his first 40-homer, 130-RBI season.

Does that path remind you of anyone? Perhaps someone whose name is at the top of this section? Chapman, too, debuted as a glove-first third baseman with plenty of offensive promise, hitting .234/.313/.472 with 14 homers in about half a season as a rookie in 2017. He found another gear last season, hitting .278/.356/.508 with 24 homers and winning a Gold Glove. Now in his third season, Chapman is ready to make a leap like Arenado, once his high school teammate in southern California.

Everything in Chapman’s advanced profile suggests there’s more in his bat than he already got out of it last season. He cut five percentage points off his strikeout rate while maintaining a high walk rate at 9.4%. His hard-hit rate jumped by more than seven percentage points. His HR/FB ratio climbed to 15.2% from 13.9%. He commanded the strike zone better than he did as a rookie, lowering his o-swing rate to 23.5% from 28.5%. Add in his first-round pedigree and a .517  slugging percentage in just shy of 1,400 plate appearances as a minor leaguer (including a .566 slugging percentage with 23 homers in 289 Triple-A plate appearances), and it’s easy to project more growth in Chapman’s future.

Chapman hinted at additional power last year. He smacked 42 doubles and had a .230 isolated slugging percentage. The only other player in the majors with an ISO of .230 or better and at least 600 plate appearances who didn’t hit 30 homers was Miguel Andujar, who finished the season with 27. The belief here is that some of those doubles turn into homers for Chapman this year. With a steady walk rate and prime spot in a powerful lineup, the rate and counting stats aren’t going anywhere. Chapman is my best bet to be a breakout player in 2019.

 

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I really like Chapman and think he is only going to get better ...... wish I had him in more carry over leagues but I got on board to late.

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Trying to acquire this guy in every league I don't have him before the secret is out mainstream that he's going to be on a new level this year.

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On 4/1/2019 at 10:29 PM, UberRebel said:

Trying to acquire this guy in every league I don't have him before the secret is out mainstream that he's going to be on a new level this year.

Agreed. I was slow to come around on him because some power indicators were meh but he’s picking up where he left off and is just hitting his prime. If that avg can stay around 280 he’s going to have a monster season.

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Awfully quiet in here. I didn't realize his k-rate is sitting at 9.6% and his contact rates are looking really good so far.  Needs to get his LD rate and GB rate back down, but if he can suddenly carry a K-rate in the teens that would be a big surprise and nice addition to his game.

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So underrated.  What a player.

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7 walks and 1 strikeout the last 3 games. His plate discipline transformation has been incredible.

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I still think there is a buy low opportunity with some people that drafted and were not happy they ended up with him. Looking at how hard he is hitting it, the reduced swinging strikes, and the improved walk rates I think you could potentially see a 3rd/4th round talent. 

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Supposedly K% starts to stabilize around 60 PA, and Chapman is now at 103 PA and holds a 9.7 K%. That is down from 23.7% last season, which was down from 28.2% the season before that. This is supported by a 5.2% Swinging Strike Rate which ranks 8th in the league. This is fueled in part by a 20.4% O-swing% which ranks 18th in the league and more so by an O-contact % of 83%, which ranks 5th in the league behind the likes of Trout and Bellinger.

Chapman has always had the power, as displayed by his .300+ ISO in Single A+. Now he has added elite plate discipline and contact skills. I would try to acquire this guy in any way possible in all leagues.

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Sick to my stomach that I kept Scooter Gennett over Chappy. He's a superstar. The growth he's made over the last year and a half is so dramatic and impressive. 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Hatfieldodger said:

Yikes. Past two game he's 0/9 with 5K's and 1 error. What's up Chappy?

Baseball is up 

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