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Ezekiel Elliott 2019 Outlook

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24 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

False.  if you could guarantee me 4 weeks missed or less.. I’d take Zeke as a top 4 without a second thought.  

 

Once he’s back you have the best rb in the league, and I know who his cuff is in the meantime.   There’s also no byes and few injuries- so I’m not hurting for options early.   

You’re not giving the other every-down backs enough credit. You think Elliott can miss several games and still be more valuable? I don’t know what format you’re using, but last year Elliott was the 5th most valuable RB in PPR format without holding out. The chance for a holdout knocks him out of consideration for the 4th pick in the draft for me. I’d much rather take the Top WR given his uncertainty. 

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6 minutes ago, y2jbones said:

You’re not giving the other every-down backs enough credit. You think Elliott can miss several games and still be more valuable? I don’t know what format you’re using, but last year Elliott was the 5th most valuable RB in PPR format without holding out. The chance for a holdout knocks him out of consideration for the 4th pick in the draft for me. I’d much rather take the Top WR given his uncertainty. 

 

Completely hypothetical anyways since we can’t guarantee the number of games missed.   Point being-  if you can get 60-70% out of the backup while Zeke is out...then a few games isn’t a big deal.    

Starting Zeke for 75% + Pollard for 25% of the season is worth it in many formats.   

Edited by Impreza178

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Just now, Impreza178 said:

 

Completely hypothetical anyways-  since we can’t guarantee the number of games missed.   Point being-  if you can get 60-70% out of the backup while Zeke is out...then a few games isn’t a big deal.    Owning Zeke for 75% of the season is worth it in many formats.   

Of course he’s worth owning, it’s a matter of at what price is he worth owning. The uncertainty makes him too risky at the top of the 1st round. You’re pricing him as if there are no issues and he’s starting the season. 

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37 minutes ago, y2jbones said:

Of course he’s worth owning, it’s a matter of at what price is he worth owning. The uncertainty makes him too risky at the top of the 1st round. You’re pricing him as if there are no issues and he’s starting the season. 

The hypothetical was based on Zeke missing four or fewer games.  You don't get 0's in your lineup for the 1-4 weeks missed by Zeke in this scenario.  If you drafted Pollard, who can still be had late as of recently, let's assume you get 75% of Zeke's production while Zeke is out.  Let's assume Zeke averages 20 fantasy points per week in full point PPR.  So for 1-4 weeks you get 15 pts/week from Pollard and then you're back up to 20 per week moving forward.  You could easily argue his value as a top four pick in this scenario. It's just math!

Edited by WEIL3R
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7 hours ago, FantasyGeek2018 said:

If he sucked would he be giving money back to the cowboys even though he has a contract? They should let him retire if he is not happy.

You...do know NFL contracts are not guaranteed, correct?  The Cowboys could cut Elliott at any time if he was not performing up to their expectations.  No need to discuss Elliott giving money back.  

Edited by Patrick Bateman
Ease down the rhetoric. Edited out flaming.
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You gotta feel for these RBs in regard to their typically short earning window. Add in the fact that the top three RB salaries are: Gurley (arthritis), Lev (gm that signed him fired), DJ (proved he can't do it alone).

 

Teams are better off investing elsewhere. 

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2 minutes ago, fingers said:

You gotta feel for these RBs in regard to their typically short earning window. Add in the fact that the top three RB salaries are: Gurley (arthritis), Lev (gm that signed him fired), DJ (proved he can't do it alone).

 

Teams are better off investing elsewhere. 

Running backs are the dish washers of the NFL. They do the most work in the restaurant and take a physical beating on their bodies and get the least pay

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9 minutes ago, dms80790 said:

Running backs are the dish washers of the NFL. They do the most work in the restaurant and take a physical beating on their bodies and get the least pay

 

It pays better than special teams I guess and they can still be above average NFL earners. But let's face it they're def not holding a lot of cards in negotiations. 

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12 minutes ago, dms80790 said:

Running backs are the dish washers of the NFL. They do the most work in the restaurant and take a physical beating on their bodies and get the least pay

OL guys might have something to say about this.  At least RBs can get endorsement deals....

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Is this the last buy low window? I'm gently kicking the tires over here. Am I nuts?

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12 minutes ago, herschel said:

OL guys might have something to say about this.  At least RBs can get endorsement deals....

 

Don't forget those interior D-linemen sometimes taking on two of those big offensive lineman in the run game.

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9 minutes ago, fingers said:

Is this the last buy low window? I'm gently kicking the tires over here. Am I nuts?

No.  The window will be open until he signs a deal.  Guessing when that is is a different question...

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2 minutes ago, herschel said:

No.  The window will be open until he signs a deal.  Guessing when that is is a different question...

 

I'll rephrase. What are the realistic odds he signs in the next week? 

 

Vegas says yes. Currently -200 he plays week 1

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3 minutes ago, fingers said:

 

I'll rephrase. What are the realistic odds he signs in the next week? 

 

Vegas says yes. Currently -200 he plays week 1

Don’t think I’d be comfortable laying 2:1 that he plays.  Seems more of a coin flip/ even money to me.

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He’ll sign at the eleventh hour.  Sometime between the last preseason game and the opener.  If $$$ is what he’s after I can’t imagine losing $225,000 game checks are going to be palatable. 

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6 minutes ago, herschel said:

Don’t think I’d be comfortable laying 2:1 that he plays.  Seems more of a coin flip/ even money to me.

Agreed.  2:1 he’s back by week 4

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4 minutes ago, smccague123 said:

He’ll sign at the eleventh hour.  Sometime between the last preseason game and the opener.  If $$$ is what he’s after I can’t imagine losing $225,000 game checks are going to be palatable. 

I doubt very much that Elliott cares about a few $225,000.00 game checks.  He is trying to get $60 million.  And sitting out a full year may be his path to get there.

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51 minutes ago, dms80790 said:

Running backs are the dish washers of the NFL. They do the most work in the restaurant and take a physical beating on their bodies and get the least pay

 

Dishwashers are also commodity labor, much more easily replaced than the difference-making positions in the restaurant world: chef, maitre d', etc.  RBs are similarly situated.

In that regard, you are absolutely correct, and I love the comparison.  Zeke Elliott is one of the best dishwashers available.  Yet he wants "chef money."  

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3 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I doubt very much that Elliott cares about a few $225,000.00 game checks.  He is trying to get $60 million.  And sitting out a full year may be his path to get there.

You may be right regarding individual game checks but if the Cowboys aren’t going to pay him I have to think it’s in his best interest to not miss ALL the games and stop the clock on his impending free agency in a couple years. 

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1 minute ago, smccague123 said:

You may be right regarding individual game checks but if the Cowboys aren’t going to pay him I have to think it’s in his best interest to not miss ALL the games and stop the clock on his impending free agency in a couple years. 

Possibly.  But if fantasy team managers draft Elliott in the first round, it's going to work out too well for them if he does not report until after week 10.

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6 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Possibly.  But if fantasy team managers draft Elliott in the first round, it's going to work out too well for them if he does not report until after week 10.

Agree obviously although I do think he reports quite a bit earlier than that.   Who would you pick at #4 then assuming Barkley, CMC, and Kamara are gone?  I’m curious because this is the dilemma I’m going to be facing this Sunday.  

 

 

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9 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Possibly.  But if fantasy team managers draft Elliott in the first round, it's going to work out too well for them if he does not report until after week 10.

Just in time for Fantasy Playoffs, which they still should be in the hunt for if they are active and draft Pollard.

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Awful big assumption.  Someone drafts Zeke they better beat me to Pollard cause I’m looking for him in single digit rounds if Zeke hasn’t reported. 

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17 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Possibly.  But if fantasy team managers draft Elliott in the first round, it's going to work out too well for them if he does not report until after week 10.

 

Carrot and the stick

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29 minutes ago, KennyWoo said:

 

Dishwashers are also commodity labor, much more easily replaced than the difference-making positions in the restaurant world: chef, maitre d', etc.  RBs are similarly situated.

In that regard, you are absolutely correct, and I love the comparison.  Zeke Elliott is one of the best dishwashers available.  Yet he wants "chef money."  

I like the analogy too, though wouldn’t it be more accurate to say that Zeke is arguably the best dishwasher, and therefore believes he deserves to be the highest paid dishwasher?

Edited by Lamont Sanford

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