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Ezekiel Elliott 2019 Outlook


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Why? Because he's trying to get the money he deserves before it's too late? It's laughable to me that mediocre QBs get 30+mill a year and Zeke is getting nickel and dimed for wanting 15 mill, which is

Zeke when he finally signs  

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https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/cowboys/2019/09/01/source-significant-ground-remains-to-be-covered-in-negotiations-between-cowboys-ezekiel-elliott/

 

It's encouraging that they're back at the negotiation table, but I wouldn't celebrate just yet. Jerry Jones loves leaking things to the press, so he could be trying to pressure Zeke into accepting their offer by leaking that it's basically a done deal. If he doesn't sign, Zeke looks like the bad guy. 

This is very similar to the Charger's beat writer telling the world last week that he believed Melvin Gordon would be signing by week 1. How did that work out?

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29 minutes ago, OrangeAggie said:

Robinson basically admitted on Twitter that he was just parroting what Adam Schefter said last night.

Just another journalist trying to get credit in case something actually happens. 


No he didn't:
 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Dark One said:


No he didn't:
 

 

 

 

 

Sounds to me like he's just playing words games in an attempt to make it seem like his Tweet is somehow "reporting" while Adam Schefter is "speculating".  He's just saying the same thing others have already said, he has no new information. 

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Schefter's word is anything but 100% truth, it's still opinion just as mine or yours is. He's a reporter. He makes money off people reading and quoting him. It's in his best interest to create headlines that will make us gravitate towards his articles. What's more appealing: "Zeke/Cowboys negotiations still stalled" or "Zeke will play week 1"? Van Natta can go pound sand as well, as he's just defending his own profession. And if Schefter is wrong, he washes his hands of it and It's not brought up again (do we even remember a couple days ago a certain reporter with a "hunch" Gordon will be full go week 1?). A win/win for him. Reporters are about as trustworthy as car salesmen. So if you trust a car salesman, draft Zeke with confidence. I'm going Chubb with my 4 spot in my draft tonite, unless the cowboys or Zeke himself make an announcement that Zeke is playing week 1.

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1 hour ago, OrangeAggie said:

Sounds to me like he's just playing words games in an attempt to make it seem like his Tweet is somehow "reporting" while Adam Schefter is "speculating".  He's just saying the same thing others have already said, he has no new information. 

You said he basically admitted he was simply parroting what Schefter said. He did not.

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20 minutes ago, Nickmo said:

Schefter's word is anything but 100% truth, it's still opinion just as mine or yours is. He's a reporter. He makes money off people reading and quoting him. It's in his best interest to create headlines that will make us gravitate towards his articles. What's more appealing: "Zeke/Cowboys negotiations still stalled" or "Zeke will play week 1"? Van Natta can go pound sand as well, as he's just defending his own profession. And if Schefter is wrong, he washes his hands of it and It's not brought up again (do we even remember a couple days ago a certain reporter with a "hunch" Gordon will be full go week 1?). A win/win for him. Reporters are about as trustworthy as car salesmen. So if you trust a car salesman, draft Zeke with confidence. I'm going Chubb with my 4 spot in my draft tonite, unless the cowboys or Zeke himself make an announcement that Zeke is playing week 1.

This is not true.  All opinions are not equal.  Just because everyone has one, doesn’t mean they have same value. I am not saying that means to take his work as truth, but in general reporters at that level are more reliable than random RW forum posters....

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12 minutes ago, herschel said:

This is not true.  All opinions are not equal.  Just because everyone has one, doesn’t mean they have same value. I am not saying that means to take his work as truth, but in general reporters at that level are more reliable than random RW forum posters....

 Agreed, his opinion cab be based on information not available to the average person, but still just opinion until it's fact. But unlike us, he does have direct incentive for exaggerating or providing information that just simply isn't true. 

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5 minutes ago, Nickmo said:

 Agreed, his opinion cab be based on information not available to the average person, but still just opinion until it's fact. But unlike us, he does have direct incentive for exaggerating or providing information that just simply isn't true. 

Schefter gets most of the leaks ahead of time, so more often than not they are fact and not opinion.

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This has all been pantomime.  Don't listen to any of the reports.  It's mostly bull and it's all orchestrated.  The way to figure this out is:

1.  Assess what each party should do in its rational best interest; and
2.  Try to project how likely each party is to act rationally.

I'm going to focus on #1.  It is irrational for Zeke to hold out the entire season.  If he ever wants big money he has to get a year counted toward free agency; that means he will play at least the last six games of the season if he is rational.  It may be rational for Zeke to hold out for a game, two, three, etc. to try to get some leverage over Dallas.  (Currently he has none.)

Whether it is rational for Dallas to sign Zeke to his demanded contract depends on your view of things.  I think doing so would be irrational because (1) Zeke has no real leverage right now; (2) paying a RB big money is a recipe for NFL disaster in the modern game; and (3) you can get a lot closer to Zeke's production for peanuts than you can get closer to Dak's or Cooper's production for peanuts, and signing Zeke to big money likely means one of those has to be cut loose (or the rest of the team has to be gutted).  But some disagree and think the guy should be signed to a massive contract.

I'm not even going to guess on #2 because I don't have much faith in the ability of either Zeke or Jerry Jones to do something that makes sense.  They rarely do.

My guess: I'm about 99% sure Zeke will not hold out the whole season.  That would be cutting off his nose to spite his face.  I'm 50/50 on whether he plays Week 1.

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1 hour ago, KennyWoo said:

This has all been pantomime.  Don't listen to any of the reports.  It's mostly bull and it's all orchestrated.  The way to figure this out is:

1.  Assess what each party should do in its rational best interest; and
2.  Try to project how likely each party is to act rationally.

I'm going to focus on #1.  It is irrational for Zeke to hold out the entire season.  If he ever wants big money he has to get a year counted toward free agency; that means he will play at least the last six games of the season if he is rational.  It may be rational for Zeke to hold out for a game, two, three, etc. to try to get some leverage over Dallas.  (Currently he has none.)

Whether it is rational for Dallas to sign Zeke to his demanded contract depends on your view of things.  I think doing so would be irrational because (1) Zeke has no real leverage right now; (2) paying a RB big money is a recipe for NFL disaster in the modern game; and (3) you can get a lot closer to Zeke's production for peanuts than you can get closer to Dak's or Cooper's production for peanuts, and signing Zeke to big money likely means one of those has to be cut loose (or the rest of the team has to be gutted).  But some disagree and think the guy should be signed to a massive contract.

I'm not even going to guess on #2 because I don't have much faith in the ability of either Zeke or Jerry Jones to do something that makes sense.  They rarely do.

My guess: I'm about 99% sure Zeke will not hold out the whole season.  That would be cutting off his nose to spite his face.  I'm 50/50 on whether he plays Week 1.

Don't agree at all. Zeke can still hold out all season because he is seeking a long-term deal at his market worth. Otherwise he will eventually face what the Steelers did to Bell. Team lowballs and then slaps the player with the franchise tag. It is in his best interests to get a long-term extension worked out now before he is up against the franchise tag. Regardless of accruing a season towards FA.

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1 hour ago, KennyWoo said:

I think doing so would be irrational because (1) Zeke has no real leverage right now; (2) paying a RB big money is a recipe for NFL disaster in the modern game

I get that this is modern shibboleth, but have we really seen it play out this way yet?  Maybe you, or someone else, have an example in mind that demonstrates this point?

1 hour ago, KennyWoo said:

and (3) you can get a lot closer to Zeke's production for peanuts than you can get closer to Dak's or Cooper's production for peanuts

Here I simply disagree. I've laid out the unique factors Zeke brings to the table throughout this thread.  He may not be able to win the Cowboys a Superbowl by himself, but he is the vital piece of the Cowboys offense.  Both Dak and Cooper are going to be as or more expensive than Zeke and, even though it goes against the conventional wisdom current to this always evolving game/league, are more easily replaced in my opinion. 

I think Dak's looming $30+m/year and Cooper's $15+m/year contracts are far worse investments than $15m/year for Zeke. 

Is either Dak or Cooper special?  Elite?  Are either of them the best, or even top 5, at their positions?  Top 10?

Is Zeke?

I'd answer "no" for the former two, and emphatically "yes" for the latter.

So the rational question is: do you think paying two very-good-but-not-great players top dollar gives you a better chance of winning a Superbowl within the next 5 years than paying (arguably) the best player at his position does?

If so, let Zeke walk.

If not, pay the man what it takes.

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7 hours ago, SadFaceHappy said:

I get that this is modern shibboleth, but have we really seen it play out this way yet?  Maybe you, or someone else, have an example in mind that demonstrates this point?

 

There are almost too many recent examples to count of a team cutting or trading a high-priced RB and still finding success. Obviously Conner duplicating Bell’s production for pennies on the dollar is a good recent example, but then you have the Pats cutting Blount after leading the league in TDs. The Eagles didn’t need Shady to win a SB, the Rams didn’t need Gurley to reach the SB, and really aside from the Rams no recent contender has tied up a lot of cap space with the RB position.

The Cards paid DJ last off-season and it got them the #1 pick this year. When a stud RB starts acting like a diva, the right move is to invest in the O-line and give more carries to some guy you drafted in the third round. And then you create a new stud RB you can ride until he starts acting like a diva.

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15 minutes ago, eg4190 said:

 

There are almost too many recent examples to count of a team cutting or trading a high-priced RB and still finding success. Obviously Conner duplicating Bell’s production for pennies on the dollar is a good recent example, but then you have the Pats cutting Blount after leading the league in TDs. The Eagles didn’t need Shady to win a SB, the Rams didn’t need Gurley to reach the SB, and really aside from the Rams no recent contender has tied up a lot of cap space with the RB position.

The Cards paid DJ last off-season and it got them the #1 pick this year. When a stud RB starts acting like a diva, the right move is to invest in the O-line and give more carries to some guy you drafted in the third round. And then you create a new stud RB you can ride until he starts acting like a diva.

The Rams and Steelers did ok without Gurley and Bell.  The Eagles were fine after McCoy.  Bringing up the Pat's and Blount is laughable. 

Sure, those are data points - but not examples of a team losing because they paid a RB.

So unless you want to pin the Cardinals losing season on the contract they gave DJ, you still haven't proved the axiom, which is: paying a RB top dollar prevents teams from winning, not that it's possible to win without doing so

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8 hours ago, SadFaceHappy said:

I get that this is modern shibboleth, but have we really seen it play out this way yet?  Maybe you, or someone else, have an example in mind that demonstrates this point?

Here I simply disagree. I've laid out the unique factors Zeke brings to the table throughout this thread.  He may not be able to win the Cowboys a Superbowl by himself, but he is the vital piece of the Cowboys offense.  Both Dak and Cooper are going to be as or more expensive than Zeke and, even though it goes against the conventional wisdom current to this always evolving game/league, are more easily replaced in my opinion. 

I think Dak's looming $30+m/year and Cooper's $15+m/year contracts are far worse investments than $15m/year for Zeke. 

Is either Dak or Cooper special?  Elite?  Are either of them the best, or even top 5, at their positions?  Top 10?

Is Zeke?

I'd answer "no" for the former two, and emphatically "yes" for the latter.

So the rational question is: do you think paying two very-good-but-not-great players top dollar gives you a better chance of winning a Superbowl within the next 5 years than paying (arguably) the best player at his position does?

If so, let Zeke walk.

If not, pay the man what it takes.

 

I think it's a bad idea to overpay a RB, a marginal QB and enigmatic talented WR. But this is the world the cowboys created. 

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5 minutes ago, eg4190 said:

 

2015 Peyton Manning says hi!

He still wasn't average. He had years of experience and was a great mind, despite the declining physical traits. He was light years better than Osweiler and why they went back to him after resting him for a period of time.

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