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Melvin Gordon 2019 Outlook


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54 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:

Even if he misses the first 4 weeks he’s a league winner. I got him at the 3-4 turn and jumped for joy. He has no leverage whatsoever if he threatens to sit out the entire year. With the franchise tag the chargers own him for at least the next 2 seasons

If you get him round 3 he’s a league winner possibly and not a league loser 

 

he has literally 0 leverage and his agent is screwing him badly ... chargers are in win now mode but have a ton of Rb depth, he’s coming off a knee injury and they offered him top 6 rb money and a great offense what else does he want ? He’s not a top 3 back and he’s injury prone ... under contract and can be tagged next season, have fun sitting 2 years in your prime or sign for fair money??  

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My map of Southern California.

It's important to note that both Gordon and Zeke are still under contract (unlike when Bell held out), so they have to play this year (or retire).  If they don't play, they will still have the same am

Melvin had a few good runs here or there but Austin Ek would have done the same if not MORE on those same runs. Austin only got 8 touches and still managed to find the end zone. austin + targets

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6 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

 

What’s the franchise tag number I wonder....north of 12M?    If he sits a large portion of this season I can’t see any way they tag him.  He might be willing to sit if his camp follows this line of thinking. 

Great article here...

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27342231/why-compare-ezekiel-elliott-melvin-gordon-holdouts-leveon-bells

The fact is, that the recency bias surrounding Bell has everyone completely panicking but there is no historical data that supports what he did is even close to the norm. Even Bell's efforts failed when he didn't land the mega deal he was holding out for. Gordon has zero leverage. He may miss a game or two but be careful not to pass on him if he's falling to you in the 3rd or 4th. He's still a lock as a top 5 rb when on the field

Edited by Joe Odam
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Gordon isn't a top 5 back. Honestly, he might not even be a top 10 back.

He's had knee issues dating back to college.

Last year was the first time he averaged 4.0 YPC or better in a season.

The RB value is at an all-time low.

San Diego, er, Los Angeles has other options at RB.

The Chargers are wise to hold their ground and I agree with them in their current stance. That said...

I also can see it from Gordon's point of view, he's entering the final year of his contract, he's coming off a career year, he knows that the Chargers are in SB or Bust mode...And the timing of this obviously is perfect, the draft and FA are over, not like the Chargers can run out and find solid depth.

But ultimately...I say Chargers give him a pay raise for this season at best and hold firm at worst. Dude just isn't worth signing to a big money, long term deal.

Just my 2 cents.

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36 minutes ago, WonkaWorld said:

Gordon isn't a top 5 back. Honestly, he might not even be a top 10 back.

He's had knee issues dating back to college.

Last year was the first time he averaged 4.0 YPC or better in a season.

The RB value is at an all-time low.

San Diego, er, Los Angeles has other options at RB.

The Chargers are wise to hold their ground and I agree with them in their current stance. That said...

I also can see it from Gordon's point of view, he's entering the final year of his contract, he's coming off a career year, he knows that the Chargers are in SB or Bust mode...And the timing of this obviously is perfect, the draft and FA are over, not like the Chargers can run out and find solid depth.

But ultimately...I say Chargers give him a pay raise for this season at best and hold firm at worst. Dude just isn't worth signing to a big money, long term deal.

Just my 2 cents.

 

Yikes might want to fact check your 2 cents. 

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28 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

You mean except for the fact that he was top-10 in 2016, 2017 and 2018?

 

1 minute ago, HarambeLives said:

 

Yikes might want to fact check your 2 cents. 

 

I was referring to real life value in making the argument that the Chargers are correct in holding their ground...But feel free to try and justify Melvin Gordon as a top 5 real life option if that's what you guys are actually referring to. Or even top 10.

I'll wait.

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4 minutes ago, WonkaWorld said:

I was referring to real life value in making the argument that the Chargers are correct in holding their ground...

OK, that's fair enough. I was on a Fantasy forum assuming you meant fantasy value - to be honest, I'm not even sure how to measure or assess real life "value". 
How do you assess the value of a RB independent of his O-Line, OC, QB, WRs stretching the field, etc?

If you mean to say that the value of Gordon above replacement (Ekeler/Jackson) is limited, then I think he proved last year he's better than Ekeler. We'll see about JJ, I guess.

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9 minutes ago, CABLE87 said:

He'll holdout 10 weeks then come back so he can still have this year count and be a free agent next season

 

does that mean my days of buying austin ekeler in round 7 have come to an end?

good while it lasted... though ekeler is still a "buy" at 6.07 ADP and under $10 in auction.

plus, ekeler's standalone value in PPR (i.e. even when/if gordon returns) will help to mitigate the inflation of his cost/ADP, IMO.

AdorableRegularAmericancrayfish-size_res

 

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Seems like the chance of Gordon holding out well into the season is pretty high.  Even though it only sorta worked for Bell, other RBs were obviously paying attention.

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He had a picture on Instagram with a gold chain that had the initials TNF......

 

Not sure if that means Thursday Night Football or not, hinting that's when he'll come back

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2 minutes ago, CABLE87 said:

He had a picture on Instagram with a gold chain that had the initials TNF......

Not sure if that means Thursday Night Football or not, hinting that's when he'll come back

 

Sure hints at it, as Chargers play on TNF week 10. At that point the Chargers will have written him off, if they haven’t already. I don’t see how we can depend on any significant fantasy contributions from Gordon in 2019.

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27 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:

The "Gordon still wants to return in time for the regular season part" is great news imo if true. I think the Chargers will eventually "win" this standoff. 

 

Call me a pessimist, but I'm getting the opposite out of Schefter's tweet. "Gordon wants to return in time for the regular season," means he wants the Chargers to make him the deal he wants by the regular season. 

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I didn't read the whole thread, so apologies if this has been mentioned.  Mr. Spanos and the Chargers have a history of being incredibly cheap, so that's the main thing that scares me away.  Zeke will get paid.  MG3 I highly doubt it, at least not from the Chargers.

Edited by Slimzy17
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I am a Gordon owner and a Chargers fan.  Unfortunately I don't see him coming back until week 10 when the financial penalty kicks in.  Chargers are cheap and will never give him the 13m he wants.  They did try and bridge the gap with incentives, but obviously that isn't enough.  I just wish he would try and negotiate the incentives and take the 10m.

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