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Melvin Gordon 2019 Outlook


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On 8/15/2019 at 10:12 PM, peleincubus said:

I wonder how much making the hall of fame matters to him and other players of his caliber. Missing a half year could impact that. 

 

Junior Seau would like you to know how important making the Hall of Fame meant to him.

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My map of Southern California.

It's important to note that both Gordon and Zeke are still under contract (unlike when Bell held out), so they have to play this year (or retire).  If they don't play, they will still have the same am

Melvin had a few good runs here or there but Austin Ek would have done the same if not MORE on those same runs. Austin only got 8 touches and still managed to find the end zone. austin + targets

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29 minutes ago, MIKEnSD said:

I am a Gordon owner and a Chargers fan.  Unfortunately I don't see him coming back until week 10 when the financial penalty kicks in.  Chargers are cheap and will never give him the 13m he wants.  They did try and bridge the gap with incentives, but obviously that isn't enough.  I just wish he would try and negotiate the incentives and take the 10m.

 

Bolded the important part. This is almost definitely why this is taking so long.

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2 hours ago, kball09 said:

 

Bolded the important part. This is almost definitely why this is taking so long.

Despite their tendency to cheapness, Gordon isn't worth 13m/year.  He isn't worth 10m/year.  Only a handful of backs (Gurley, DJ, Zeke, Kamara, Barkley, Bell, and maybe McCaffrey).

Gordon is a good, not great, player - but his real value is less than his performance in fantasy makes it seem.

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1 minute ago, SadFaceHappy said:

Despite their tendency to cheapness, Gordon isn't worth 13m/year.  He isn't worth 10m/year.  Only a handful of backs (Gurley, DJ, Zeke, Kamara, Barkley, Bell, and maybe McCaffrey).

Gordon is a good, not great, player - but his real value is less than his performance in fantasy makes it seem.

 

I'm fine with that opinion and don't necessarily disagree. But the Chargers tend to have these contract disputes and I continually hear from their fans that the organization is cheap, similar to the sentiment around the Bengals. Maybe the conjecture is overblown. Hard to tell without seeing what those 3 million of incentives are based off of

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1 minute ago, kball09 said:

 

I'm fine with that opinion and don't necessarily disagree. But the Chargers tend to have these contract disputes and I continually hear from their fans that the organization is cheap, similar to the sentiment around the Bengals. Maybe the conjecture is overblown. Hard to tell without seeing what those 3 million of incentives are based off of

No, I do believe the Chargers have an earned reputation for cheapness.  No dispute there.

But, like Bell, Gordon's expectations are unrealistic - from the Chargers or any other team.  At least Bell could argue that another team would give him 70% of the money he wanted if he hit the open market.  Gordon, were he a FA, wouldn't sniff 10 per.  Might get up to 8.  Might not get more than 6.  Mark Ingram and Tevin Coleman signed deals for 5/year, without big guarantees.  Gordon isn't significantly better than either of them, and has an injury history, though he is younger than Ingram. 

For our purposes here, cheap franchise + unrealistic salary demand = missed games

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Melvin is a keeper in one of my leagues.  Making me nervous, man.   Just go to work,

 

I drafted him in Round 2 last season.   He'd cost me a 1st this year.   If playing, I'd probably keep him.  With this uncertainty, I don't think I can.

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17 hours ago, MIKEnSD said:

I am a Gordon owner and a Chargers fan.  Unfortunately I don't see him coming back until week 10 when the financial penalty kicks in.  Chargers are cheap and will never give him the 13m he wants.  They did try and bridge the gap with incentives, but obviously that isn't enough.  I just wish he would try and negotiate the incentives and take the 10m.

I'm a Gordon owner in a keeper league and this is really worrying me, so much that I got a low ball offer (draft pick) that I'm thinking of jumping on.  I think MG knows his knees are not great long term and knows he needs to get paid now.  MG has been fantastic the past couple years but I ask fellow keeper/dynasty owners if you have been worrying about him long term? Thinking about getting off the train at some point?  

Who is confidently keeping this guy for 2019? I think he is worried about his health (similar to Bell) and is prepared to sit out until he gets a new deal or maybe a trade?  Even a trade to a new team doesn't guarantee he will produce or not end up in a timeshare.

Am I being pessimistic here? I just don't like this situation and may take this low ball offer just to get something/anything for him.  If he only misses a couple weeks thats fine but to keep him and he misses 10 weeks or the whole season?  Ouch. I had Bell last year and I did not like it.

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14 hours ago, SadFaceHappy said:

Despite their tendency to cheapness, Gordon isn't worth 13m/year.  He isn't worth 10m/year.  Only a handful of backs (Gurley, DJ, Zeke, Kamara, Barkley, Bell, and maybe McCaffrey).

Gordon is a good, not great, player - but his real value is less than his performance in fantasy makes it seem.

Not only are the chargers "cheap" they have to be worried about paying top $ for a RB with knees that may not hold up long term. MG has been banged up a lot in his career so far. Someone talk me off the ledge for trading this guy for peanuts? Or maybe that is where we are headed?

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2 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

Not only are the chargers "cheap" they have to be worried about paying top $ for a RB with knees that may not hold up long term. MG has been banged up a lot in his career so far. Someone talk me off the ledge for trading this guy for peanuts? Or maybe that is where we are headed?

 

Depends on your needs and the deal.  I am holding onto MG as I think he comes back within the first 4 weeks and they meet common ground on the incentives.

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3 hours ago, MIKEnSD said:

 

Depends on your needs and the deal.  I am holding onto MG as I think he comes back within the first 4 weeks and they meet common ground on the incentives.

Hold out aside, has MG's health ever worried you?  I've nearly traded him a couple times in the past 2 years, mainly to reduce some risk. I do wonder if MG might have some long term issues with his knees and the microfracture surgery he had.  

 

Having said that if he does come back in the first 4 weeks then his value for a trade would be a lot higher after that.  I just don't know what to think anymore with these RBs holding out.  There is always another RB ready to fill-in....

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1 hour ago, Big Nate said:

Hold out aside, has MG's health ever worried you?  I've nearly traded him a couple times in the past 2 years, mainly to reduce some risk. I do wonder if MG might have some long term issues with his knees and the microfracture surgery he had.  

 

Having said that if he does come back in the first 4 weeks then his value for a trade would be a lot higher after that.  I just don't know what to think anymore with these RBs holding out.  There is always another RB ready to fill-in....

 

I do have some concern about his health, but the reality for my situation is that his value is bottom barrel and the RB spot is my greatest need which kind of hand cuffs me here.  I am not a person who trades penny on the dollars.  I would rather he come back at some point this year and make a trade for a next year to a cusp playoff team for a draft pick next year or a higher end player.  I am presently exploring trades that would be a RB for a WR to fill the gap.

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1 minute ago, MIKEnSD said:

 

I do have some concern about his health, but the reality for my situation is that his value is bottom barrel and the RB spot is my greatest need which kind of hand cuffs me here.  I am not a person who trades penny on the dollars.  I would rather he come back at some point this year and make a trade for a next year to a cusp playoff team for a draft pick next year or a higher end player.  I am presently exploring trades that would be a RB for a WR to fill the gap.

So what kind of value are we looking at here? Right now I think is a time to sell on the name because if he doesn't come back then whoever has him is banking on the next year to follow if he goes to a playoff team. Im not sure if you could get another RB1 or WR1 for him

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Just now, JacobThunder15 said:

So what kind of value are we looking at here? Right now I think is a time to sell on the name because if he doesn't come back then whoever has him is banking on the next year to follow if he goes to a playoff team. Im not sure if you could get another RB1 or WR1 for him

 

It is hard to predict value this far out, but I guess what I am saying (and my opinion) is that I would get greater value for him from a playoff team when he comes back in week 10, than from a team in week 1.  His name value doesn't change until he hits the field. 

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2 minutes ago, MIKEnSD said:

 

It is hard to predict value this far out, but I guess what I am saying (and my opinion) is that I would get greater value for him from a playoff team when he comes back in week 10, than from a team in week 1.  His name value doesn't change until he hits the field. 

So youre willing to bank that he comes back at all, then trade him for a lower tier player that could be traded up if Gordon were to come back in week 6 or later? I have him right now on my IR, and Im really considering trading him for someone like Damien Williams, or Montgomery who I know will get volume week 1 on.

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Just now, JacobThunder15 said:

So youre willing to bank that he comes back at all, then trade him for a lower tier player that could be traded up if Gordon were to come back in week 6 or later? I have him right now on my IR, and Im really considering trading him for someone like Damien Williams, or Montgomery who I know will get volume week 1 on.

 

If you can get Damien Williams go for it.  I am not getting offers like that in my league.

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18 hours ago, MIKEnSD said:

Oh and he will be back before week 10.  It will cost him his salary if he doesn't.

Everyone thought Bell would be back to but he just forced them to trade him as he had become a distraction and there was no way they could bring him back.  He could sit out all year and force the team to trade him.

As for offers, I'm trying to trade him for a draft pick and I'm getting things like 6-7th round offers and that is the best at this point.  But a 6-7th pick is better than keeping him and he sits out all year and I wasted a keeper spot.

Maybe take what I can get and move on. I have 2-3 other keeper options so I'm not hurting in that regard. I just wish we had some clarity and what we could expect. Missing 4 games? 9 games? The whole season? Then you add in possible long term injury concerns and I really want to cut bait.  Our keepers have to be decided by next week.... 

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51 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

Everyone thought Bell would be back to but he just forced them to trade him as he had become a distraction and there was no way they could bring him back.  He could sit out all year and force the team to trade him.

As for offers, I'm trying to trade him for a draft pick and I'm getting things like 6-7th round offers and that is the best at this point.  But a 6-7th pick is better than keeping him and he sits out all year and I wasted a keeper spot.

Maybe take what I can get and move on. I have 2-3 other keeper options so I'm not hurting in that regard. I just wish we had some clarity and what we could expect. Missing 4 games? 9 games? The whole season? Then you add in possible long term injury concerns and I really want to cut bait.  Our keepers have to be decided by next week.... 

'

first off, Bell's situation is different, he wasn't under contract.  Gordon is under contract and if he doesn't play this year he is still under contract next year.  he has zero leverage.  LAC can just keep fining and not paying him indefinitely.   Gordon has to play this year he doesn't have a choice, only question is how far into the year before he shows.

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4 minutes ago, Panthor said:

 

'

first off, Bell's situation is different, he wasn't under contract.  Gordon is under contract and if he doesn't play this year he is still under contract next year.  he has zero leverage.  LAC can just keep fining and not paying him indefinitely.   Gordon has to play this year he doesn't have a choice, only question is how far into the year before he shows.

 

While that's correct, I think predicting his usage when he does come back it another variable to consider.  Everyone is just assuming that he is going to come back and jump into the primary back role.  And while I still think that is the most likely scenario, there could be other factors that develop.  Maybe Ekeler or Jackson excel to a point that they usurp some of his carries (more so than normal).  Maybe bad blood develops between Gordon and members of the team during the holdout.  Maybe Gordon comes back and he isn't in game-ready shape (unlikely).  

 

If Bell had come back before week 10 of last year, it was unclear what his usage was going to be due to Conner's strong play and some dissension among players regarding Bell's holdout.  Conner had won over the locker room.  Something similar might occur with Gordon, though I still wouldn't bet on it.

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19 hours ago, JacobThunder15 said:

So what kind of value are we looking at here? Right now I think is a time to sell on the name because if he doesn't come back then whoever has him is banking on the next year to follow if he goes to a playoff team. Im not sure if you could get another RB1 or WR1 for him

holding him in dynasty, though not expecting to get more than 6 games from gordon this season, and these only in the final third of the season. if gordon goes to a needy team next season (bucs, texans), he'll be the feature back and worth the dynasty hold. if he stays on the chargers for 2020, also worth the dynasty hold.

in redraft, i'll only take gordon after the core of my team has been drafted, so late round 5 is possible (depending on who's there), but more probably round 6. too risky at this point to draft gordon in rounds 1 through 4 imo.

in auction, if i can get carson or montgomery or freeman in the $20 range, i'm not spending a dime more than $20 on gordon. more likely $10-$15. my two cents.

3 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

Where are people seeing this guy drafted?  And where does Ekeler go?  From my mocks I see him going like the 3rd, but then Ekeler gets taken in the 7th or 8th.  That's a lot of draft capital for basically 1 RB.

i see gordon going in the 3rd and i agree, it's too high too risky. ekeler in the 7th or 8th is a value. i expect jackson to get his share of touches, the backfield to be split to some degree, but ekeler has the better hands so seems the full-PPR pick hands down.

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On 8/15/2019 at 10:12 PM, peleincubus said:

I wonder how much making the hall of fame matters to him and other players of his caliber. Missing a half year could impact that. 


I doubt he's making the HoF either way.  Half a year ain't going to make a whit of difference.  Unless the league decides he undeservingly gets in (like Jerome Bettis) he ain't even sniffing the Hall.  AP is the only lock for the Hall in the current RB crop,  with Saquon and Kamara being on track if they keep up their level of performance for an extended period.  

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2 hours ago, Panthor said:

 

'

first off, Bell's situation is different, he wasn't under contract.  Gordon is under contract and if he doesn't play this year he is still under contract next year.  he has zero leverage.  LAC can just keep fining and not paying him indefinitely.   Gordon has to play this year he doesn't have a choice, only question is how far into the year before he shows.

Well not true, Bell was tagged and his 2018 did not count so Pitts still had his rights for 1 more year if they wanted. Pitts decided to not franchise him again and basically let him out of his last year of his contract so he ended up a Free Agent.  Bell pissed off the team and his teammates enough that they let him walk.

Best thing Gordon can hope for is a trade at some point if he doesn't report sometime early.  Look how things went south for Bell during the year. it was ugly and Pitts couldn't bring him back. 

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