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jfazz23

Jose Ramirez 2019 Outlook

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I'm sorry I can't wait anymore.  I have already traded him in 2 of 3 of my leagues.  Since the all-star break last year he has the following stat line:

468 pa

386 ab

58 r

80 h

18 2b

2 3b

14 hr

48 rbi

26 sb

.207 ba

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55 minutes ago, Short Porch said:

I'm sorry I can't wait anymore.  I have already traded him in 2 of 3 of my leagues.  Since the all-star break last year he has the following stat line:

468 pa

386 ab

58 r

80 h

18 2b

2 3b

14 hr

48 rbi

26 sb

.207 ba

Woof. He's been awful for a long time now.

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58 minutes ago, Short Porch said:

I'm sorry I can't wait anymore.  I have already traded him in 2 of 3 of my leagues.  Since the all-star break last year he has the following stat line:

468 pa

386 ab

58 r

80 h

18 2b

2 3b

14 hr

48 rbi

26 sb

.207 ba

 

Hes the 1st round bust of the year. I'm sitting on 1 last share im going to try to sell him high before his value sinks more. 

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9 minutes ago, buzzkilloton said:

 

Hes the 1st round bust of the year. I'm sitting on 1 last share im going to try to sell him high before his value sinks more. 

No he's not. The owner that drafted him in the first round is the bust of the year. 

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15 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Cut? 😂😂😂 What? As someone else said, on pace for 15/44. Had 2 lineouts today, one the opposite way. Been crazy unlucky, and the metrics back that up. 

.205 BABIP (.287 career) despite LD% (20) being just about in line with last season (20.7) and career (21). 

Hard hit%? Actually higher (37.5%) than last season (36.1) and career (30.6).

I mean, I’m as frustrated as anyone. And these numbers don’t guarantee correction. But they do show he’s been extremely unlucky. I’d bet a decent amount of cash that he’ll hit .275+ ROS. Add that to the category juice he provides (unbelievable that he’s running this much despite not being on base as often) and I’d be looking to buy everywhere from some schmuck who doesn’t understand baseball.

There are 118 games left.

 

Do you know what the difference in methodology is between fangraphs and statcast? I ask because statcast has his hard hit rate at an even 30 percent, good for the 15th percentile. A few weeks ago I was confident he'd turn it around, but it's May 19th. We're at a point in the season where the samples are starting to mean something. There is definitely some bad luck in there and he won't be this bad all season, but I'm really starting to think he's nowhere near the player he was last season or even the season before. Those who got him in the first round got duped. 

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2 minutes ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

Do you know what the difference in methodology is between fangraphs and statcast? I ask because statcast has his hard hit rate at an even 30 percent, good for the 15th percentile. A few weeks ago I was confident he'd turn it around, but it's May 19th. We're at a point in the season where the samples are starting to mean something. There is definitely some bad luck in there and he won't be this bad all season, but I'm really starting to think he's nowhere near the player he was last season or even the season before. Those who got him in the first round got duped. 

 

I agree.... look back to last August, last where his decline started.

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13 minutes ago, Fantasy_Goat said:

 

I agree.... look back to last August, last where his decline started.

 

At first I did think it was general streakiness, he also had two bad months in 2017 (May and August), but this has been a sustained four month stretch of mediocrity to outright awfulness. I get there was an offseason in between there, but still, I can't imagine anyone who isn't concerned at this point. Even granting that some of it is bad luck he's looking like the biggest bust in recent memory.

Edited by phillyphan21

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10 minutes ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

Do you know what the difference in methodology is between fangraphs and statcast? I ask because statcast has his hard hit rate at an even 30 percent, good for the 15th percentile. A few weeks ago I was confident he'd turn it around, but it's May 19th. We're at a point in the season where the samples are starting to mean something. There is definitely some bad luck in there and he won't be this bad all season, but I'm really starting to think he's nowhere near the player he was last season or even the season before. Those who got him in the first round got duped. 

I’m not certain. I’ll see if I can find it in a few. But either way, using the same source makes sense, and he’s higher than he’s been in years past. 

I definitely didn’t expect last year. The power was a fluke. But I assumed 20/30 was a good bet. I think the end of last year had to do with the shift, which messed with him mentally, and this slump I’m sure isn’t helping. 

The bad luck could continue—that’s baseball. He’s just simply something between his 1st half last year and what he is now. 

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I'm not a Ramirez owner but just interjecting to say you can have a low BABIP with a certain type of batted ball profile which is basically "lazy flyball syndrome". Look at his teammate Kipnis and perennial breakout guy Kepler. If you don't have enough pop, fly balls are not necessarily good. They are out machines. 

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7 minutes ago, dod959 said:

I'm not a Ramirez owner but just interjecting to say you can have a low BABIP with a certain type of batted ball profile which is basically "lazy flyball syndrome". Look at his teammate Kipnis and perennial breakout guy Kepler. If you don't have enough pop, fly balls are not necessarily good. They are out machines. 

The low BABIP data was also provided with LD% and hard hit%. I don’t think anyone was touting fly ball rate as good.

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it's funny by all the advanced metrics he's simply been unlucky.  But when you've been bad for this long, what do metrics really matter?  This slump is going back to end of last year.  I'm sure as the sample size gets larger there will be some correction or regression to mean but good luck on guessing when that'll happen.  This might just be who he is or who he was before was an outlier that defied metrics.  He's not striking out a lot at all and is walking a good amount.

 

  very confusing player to own this year.

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It's been a painful ride for H2H leagues so far. Hard to say if you're best selling rather low and be done with the headache, or bench and roll with some hot FAs if available. Right now I'm benching for another player with a pulse and hoping he turns it around. I was disappointed when I got the 6th overall pick, then to have taken Joram and endure this. I've mentioned in my league he's on the block, but only got one trade offer and was the worst I've ever seen in my years playing fantasy baseball.

 

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Last May a story broke he tested positive for PEDs, he denied it and no suspension came out... Was it possible he won the sealed appeals process on a positive test? Which would explain his late season slide when he was physically "tired" and carried into this year?

Yeah i know, it sounds crazy but i don't think it's much different than the worst luck ever theory.

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9 minutes ago, tonywow said:

It's been a painful ride for H2H leagues so far. Hard to say if you're best selling rather low and be done with the headache, or bench and roll with some hot FAs if available. Right now I'm benching for another player with a pulse and hoping he turns it around. I was disappointed when I got the 6th overall pick, then to have taken Joram and endure this. I've mentioned in my league he's on the block, but only got one trade offer and was the worst I've ever seen in my years playing fantasy baseball.

 

 

6th pick was fine if you took Yellich(if available) or Acuna. Just this guy is a turd. The interesting thing is most ranking sites had him at 3 overall but in my 11 money league drafts all on yahoo he kept falling to the middle of the draft. 

I've got him on one team now. Traded him on my other. Tried offering him out in some package deals with a breakout pitcher and nobody is interested. No counter offers nothing. Think we're just stuck with him at this point.

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9 minutes ago, buzzkilloton said:

 

6th pick was fine if you took Yellich(if available) or Acuna. Just this guy is a turd. The interesting thing is most ranking sites had him at 3 overall but in my 11 money league drafts all on yahoo he kept falling to the middle of the draft. 

I've got him on one team now. Traded him on my other. Tried offering him out in some package deals with a breakout pitcher and nobody is interested. No counter offers nothing. Think we're just stuck with him at this point.

yea he's going to burn a whole on our starting lineup or our bench.  He's a hold - no one in any competitive league wants him or will offer anything of real value for him.

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On 5/23/2019 at 11:53 AM, JetsAwesome said:

yea he's going to burn a whole on our starting lineup or our bench.  He's a hold - no one in any competitive league wants him or will offer anything of real value for him.

 

 Not really. I'm in a competitive league and I sought him out and wound up paying a fairly hefty price. Perhaps a mistake.

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Not hitting fastballs like he did last year. .120 average as opposed to a .280 average last season. He is also hitting more liners and pop ups on fastballs this year. Oh and btw, he has been awful on the road this year with a .124 average. He is much better at home with a .268 average. I do believe he will figure things out eventually, its just unfortunate for the Indians and fantasy owners that the slump didn't end sooner.

 

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Cleveland clearly expected this guy to have another MVP-caliber season given how they stripped down the offense in the offseason.  Their lineup revolves completely around Lindor, Santana and JRam, with basically a lot of bums around them.  Two of those three are swinging it well, but Jose is so far below expectations it's scary.  I imagine he was around a 3 WAR player at this point in the season last year, now he's flirting with negative WAR. 

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4 hours ago, mjk356 said:

Cleveland clearly expected this guy to have another MVP-caliber season given how they stripped down the offense in the offseason.  Their lineup revolves completely around Lindor, Santana and JRam, with basically a lot of bums around them.  Two of those three are swinging it well, but Jose is so far below expectations it's scary.  I imagine he was around a 3 WAR player at this point in the season last year, now he's flirting with negative WAR. 

I’m not too sure about that. IIRC he struggled in the beginning of the year last year too. Maybe not this long though 

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