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Jose Ramirez 2019 Outlook

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3 minutes ago, Triple Short Of a Cycle said:

Assuming he continues on this path for the rest of the season I wonder where he goes in drafts next year?

I'm anticipating a precipitous drop in ADP, maybe between round 4-6

Edited by JetsAwesome

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What I don't understand is there is nothing in his peripherals that seem to give a reason for his struggles.  

 

2018/2019

BB% (15.2% / 11.7%)

K% (11.5% / 15.8%)

SwStr% (4.7% / 6.9%)

O-Swing% (22.3% / 27.9%)

Contact% (88% / 84%)

Hard% (36% / 37%)

GB/FB (0.73 / 0.67)

 

There is a bit of a slide in his plate discipline from last season but on there own those numbers are still great.  A 12% walk rate, 16% K rate, 84% contact rate, 7% swinging strike rate, etc are all very healthy numbers.  

Statcast has his expected xBA and xSLG at .237 and .397, so he's been a little unlucky but not enough to explain all of this.  

 

He doesn't seem to be getting thrown a different mix of pitches either at least from a percentage basis.  But perhaps pitchers have instead found a spot or two in the zone that he seems unable to handle well and they are attacking that?

 

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5 minutes ago, Triple Short Of a Cycle said:

Assuming he continues on this path for the rest of the season I wonder where he goes in drafts next year?

Not sure anyone's using a first rounder on him next year barring an epic comeback this season. Really depends where the dust settles this year. If he finishes hitting around .250-.270 15 HRs 30 SBs with decent runs considering his lousy start, maybe he drops to 3 or 4 rounds.

If he doesn't go on some epic hot streaks, to me lot of his value will be in the steals he could provide and how many he ends up with this year. 

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Where he goes next year all depends on how he finishes. I still firmly believe there's a better chance than not he comes around. Obviously if he continues at this dreadful rate, he'll be going many, many rounds later than he did this year. 

People need to stop citing this fake PED-suspension report out of the DR. Barring any further developments, the report has no merit. The report said he would be suspended and the MLB, who would dole out the suspension, said he would not be. Nothing to see here. Not saying he, or any other major leaguer, is not on the juice. There's just no evidence he is. I find it hard to believe he would stop using whatever he was using before being caught -- ie: actually suspended. Some dude in the DR was probably incredulous this pudgy, former utility man could be putting up the stats he was and decided to play a cruel joke. 

I think he's merely in a massive slump. If you own him, you must go down with this ship. But I'm still optimistic he'll come out it, perhaps in a big way. On the bright side, at least he's still providing speed in a steals-less league. 

Edited by IceGoat
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1 hour ago, IceGoat said:

Where he goes next year all depends on how he finishes. I still firmly believe there's a better chance than not he comes around. Obviously if he continues at this dreadful rate, he'll be going many, many rounds later than he did this year. 

People need to stop citing this fake PED-suspension report out of the DR. Barring any further developments, the report has no merit. The report said he would be suspended and the MLB, who would dole out the suspension, said he would not be. Nothing to see here. Not saying he, or any other major leaguer, is not on the juice. There's just no evidence he is. I find it hard to believe he would stop using whatever he was using before being caught -- ie: actually suspended. Some dude in the DR was probably incredulous this pudgy, former utility man could be putting up the stats he was and decided to play a cruel joke. 

I think he's merely in a massive slump. If you own him, you must go down with this ship. But I'm still optimistic he'll come out it, perhaps in a big way. On the bright side, at least he's still providing speed in a steals-less league. 

It is possible he won an appeal through the sealed appeals process, was therefore not suspended, and off whatever the substance was contributing to his downfall last year when he was "tired" from the long season.

The further this slide goes the more merit it has... It certainly is more reasonable than him just being the unluckiest man alive for the last 3-4 months of baseball.

I wouldn't blow that report of entirely.

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6 hours ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

What I don't understand is there is nothing in his peripherals that seem to give a reason for his struggles.  

 

2018/2019

BB% (15.2% / 11.7%)

K% (11.5% / 15.8%)

SwStr% (4.7% / 6.9%)

O-Swing% (22.3% / 27.9%)

Contact% (88% / 84%)

Hard% (36% / 37%)

GB/FB (0.73 / 0.67)

 

There is a bit of a slide in his plate discipline from last season but on there own those numbers are still great.  A 12% walk rate, 16% K rate, 84% contact rate, 7% swinging strike rate, etc are all very healthy numbers.  

Statcast has his expected xBA and xSLG at .237 and .397, so he's been a little unlucky but not enough to explain all of this.  

 

He doesn't seem to be getting thrown a different mix of pitches either at least from a percentage basis.  But perhaps pitchers have instead found a spot or two in the zone that he seems unable to handle well and they are attacking that?

 

 

One peripheral sticks out for me.  His Pull% is down 10 percentage points.  It is like his bat became slow.  

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4 minutes ago, B&F said:

 

One peripheral sticks out for me.  His Pull% is down 10 percentage points.  It is like his bat became slow.  

 

His ISO is also way, way down. He's hitting like Dyson. But other than the pull rate being down a lot, I don't see what explains hit. He's hitting more soft contact and less medium but not THAT much more. Slight downtick in line drives, but nothing severe. Heat map consistent. Maybe there's something to your slow bat theory. 

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4 hours ago, StevieStats said:

It is possible he won an appeal through the sealed appeals process, was therefore not suspended, and off whatever the substance was contributing to his downfall last year when he was "tired" from the long season.

The further this slide goes the more merit it has... It certainly is more reasonable than him just being the unluckiest man alive for the last 3-4 months of baseball.

I wouldn't blow that report of entirely.

It’s not just talk here either. Jim Bowden was just on the fantasy radio channel a few minutes ago mentioning the PED theory as well. He was saying that just this past weekend he talked to several scouts, players, and front office people and PED speculation was a recurring theory about Ramirez’s struggles. He was citing his .190 batting average against fastballs as part of his theory. He didn’t come out and directly say it, but it sounded like he thought it was a strong possibility.

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10 minutes ago, meh2 said:

It’s not just talk here either. Jim Bowden was just on the fantasy radio channel a few minutes ago mentioning the PED theory as well. He was saying that just this past weekend he talked to several scouts, players, and front office people and PED speculation was a recurring theory about Ramirez’s struggles. He was citing his .190 batting average against fastballs as part of his theory. He didn’t come out and directly say it, but it sounded like he thought it was a strong possibility.

 

Goldschmidt couldn't hit fastballs when he slumped at the beginning of last year, either. 

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He also was good after the bogus story came out in late-May. He was a monster in July. 

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9 hours ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

He doesn't seem to be getting thrown a different mix of pitches either at least from a percentage basis.  But perhaps pitchers have instead found a spot or two in the zone that he seems unable to handle well and they are attacking that?

 

 

2019chart-4.thumb.png.ec5db785e675c0953f266e05003f1524.png

 

2018chart.png.9baefd0cea893519613e925bd56b9de4.png

 

Not much difference here. I just believe its poor contact in certain spots of at bats and also what has been said a million times in this thread already...bad luck.

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Ryan Braun got caught using PEDs and his good friend Bud Selig found an excuse and he got nothing....then the next season he had his best season. you would figure PEDs make that much of a difference if he was using them?

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2 hours ago, B&F said:

 

One peripheral sticks out for me.  His Pull% is down 10 percentage points.  It is like his bat became slow.  

 

I think you made the wrong correlation here. I believe his pull percentage is down because he is trying to beat shifts. Teams shift on him a lot thus resulting in him trying to go oppo more often like in this clip:

 

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In Jose Ramirez's last 400 Plate Appearances going back to last season he's hitting .188/.306/.289 including just 6 home runs. 

Yikes.

Edited by ReyesMurphyWright

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18 hours ago, Osu1456 said:

 

I think you made the wrong correlation here. I believe his pull percentage is down because he is trying to beat shifts. Teams shift on him a lot thus resulting in him trying to go oppo more often like in this clip:

 

 

 

He's not trying to go oppo there. He's trying to pull the s--- out of the ball. 

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On 5/28/2019 at 8:15 AM, IceGoat said:

People need to stop citing this fake PED-suspension report out of the DR. Barring any further developments, the report has no merit. The report said he would be suspended and the MLB, who would dole out the suspension, said he would not be. Nothing to see here. Not saying he, or any other major leaguer, is not on the juice. There's just no evidence he is. I find it hard to believe he would stop using whatever he was using before being caught -- ie: actually suspended. Some dude in the DR was probably incredulous this pudgy, former utility man could be putting up the stats he was and decided to play a cruel joke. 

 

It's pretty naive to think that the story was completely fabricated. Just because he didn't receive a suspension doesn't mean there was no investigation. 

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6 hours ago, cs3 said:

It's pretty naive to think that the story was completely fabricated. Just because he didn't receive a suspension doesn't mean there was no investigation. 

 

Then color me naive. I will concede it is not out of the realm of possibility, but baseball came out and wholeheartedly exonerated him. If this story were his impetus to desist in using this hypothetical banned substance, how would you explain his scintillating numbers in July, two months after the story broke? 

The story didn't merely say they had a source he was using drugs but that he was being suspended and, lo and behold, no suspension occurred. 

Who really knows but Jo-Ram and perhaps a few people? I think he's just in a massive slump and we're all groping for explanations. 

Edited by IceGoat
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48 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Buy low SZN coming to a close.

Sell opportunity opens 🤣

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spacer.png

All the talk about his peripherals but the Statcast numbers don't look good. The exit velocity, hard hit rate, and x stats all the worst since his rookie year. Barrels down from 8% last year to 6.2% this year.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jose-ramirez-608070?stats=career-r-hitting-mlb

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21 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

spacer.png

All the talk about his peripherals but the Statcast numbers don't look good. The exit velocity, hard hit rate, and x stats all the worst since his rookie year. Barrels down from 8% last year to 6.2% this year.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jose-ramirez-608070?stats=career-r-hitting-mlb

 

barrels and exit velocity are higher this year than his great year in 2017 where he had 29 home runs and a .318 average. I think either there is something we are missing or we are just over analyzing at this point. Its just not his year and I believe luck plus advanced scouting are factoring into it big time.

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9 minutes ago, Osu1456 said:

 

barrels and exit velocity are higher this year than his great year in 2017 where he had 29 home runs and a .318 average. I think either there is something we are missing or we are just over analyzing at this point. Its just not his year and I believe luck plus advanced scouting are factoring into it big time.

Yes you are right, i was looking at the row below 19 for EV, my bad. 

But his EV wasnt strong in 2017, the problem with the approx 88 mph is his launch angle is 7 degrees higher thisyear than in 2017, 21 vs 14 degrees... Lofting fly balls with 88 mph isn't productive, hence the severe hit the x stats.

He went full fly ball, never go full fly ball. He needs to get that line drive stroke back and not sure if that's happening midseason. Obviously other stuff wrong but that's a factor.

Edited by StevieStats
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While it was great for all of us (except for the awful finale to his season), I think his surprise HR outburst last year was actually a bad thing for him (at least for now).  He doesn't need to try to hit HRs, but he kept hitting them and eventually he started actually trying to hit them.  All he has to do is try to go back to hitting the line drives and his power would come back.  No, I don't think he'd sniff almost 40 HRs again, but he would still hit enough with a ton of other XBHs.

Obviously there's other issues involved besides him trying to hit fly balls.  He's chasing more bad pitches than he had in the past, regardless of whether the stats say he is or not.  I see it every time I actually watch one of their games.

Is he finally turning a corner though?  It's possible.  It's at least encouraging to see him have back-to-back multi-hit games, and both of his hits tonight being doubles.  I'm half tempted to try to trade for him back, but how awful he's been for a few months of MLB play still has me a bit scared.  This stretch, dating back to late last season, has been worse than even how he started last season.  It's also lasted far longer than his bad start to last season.

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also his lefty-righty splits are interesting. Hitting 279 with 2 hrs and 3 rbis against lefties.  Hitting 179 with 2hrs and 14 rbis against righties.  He has substantially more at bats against righties obviously so that's suppressing his overall numbers a bit.  Maybe as they face more lefties over the course of the season his numbers will normalize a little bit.   

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