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jfazz23

Jose Ramirez 2019 Outlook

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12 minutes ago, bradwatson said:

They must be looking at different data than me. This all looks very very average.

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8 minutes ago, Damn Yankee said:

 

Thanks...now I'm thoroughly confused.

But, since I am never a sell low guy, I'll hold and bench until he heats up (hopefully).

Fangraphs has his hard hit % at 38.1%. This is UP from last season’s 36.1%, and even greater bump than his career 30.8%. 

So safe to assume this isn’t the most accurate of data, either way.

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1 minute ago, Backdoor Slider said:

 

Fangraphs has his hard hit % at 38.1%. This is UP from last season’s 36.1%, and even greater bump than his career 30.8%. 

So safe to assume this isn’t the most accurate of data, either way.

Interesting and good to know. Thanks! I've been relying on Statcast, but I'll start paying more attention to both since there seems to be some discrepancy.

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8 minutes ago, bradwatson said:

Interesting and good to know. Thanks! I've been relying on Statcast, but I'll start paying more attention to both since there seems to be some discrepancy.

Yeah strange, and I’m not sure how useful if it’s not the same. Wondering if the difference is what they categorize as hard hit (exit velo I assume) or if the exit velocities are different. 

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Statcast defines hard hit as 95+. i think Fangraphs might define it as 90+, but the latter is speculation as I have not been able to find a definition on their website.

Statcast Hard% is often lower than Fangraphs, which makes sense if they indeed have a higher threshold. 

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I'm not sure that the issue is whether he will get hot or not, its whether he will get hot enough to make you feel even 50% satisfied with your first round investment in conjunction with how long you have to have him kill your ratios until he breaks through. Also it depends on if anyone in your league is a buyer and if so, what value on the dollar are they willing to give you. 

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1 hour ago, mike11 said:

I'm not sure that the issue is whether he will get hot or not, its whether he will get hot enough to make you feel even 50% satisfied with your first round investment in conjunction with how long you have to have him kill your ratios until he breaks through. Also it depends on if anyone in your league is a buyer and if so, what value on the dollar are they willing to give you. 

 

No, the issue is 100% whether he will get hot or turn it around in general. The past is the past and not changing.  Your first round pick is a sunk cost and where you drafted him should not matter in any decision at this point (unless it’s a keeper league where that matters in the future).

The only part in your analysis the past 2 months should play is predictive.  

 

 

Edited by The Waker
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My question in a keeper league is whether or not to hang onto him for next year...or is this just indicative of his future. 

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Man, what a fascinating case study this guy is. I mean we've seen guys go on tears before, only to came crashing back down to Earth. But I don't know if I remember a player being arguably THE most dominant player in fantasy baseball for months and then just have the wheels completely come shooting off to the point where he's barely rosterable in that short amount of time.

And it's not like he's an older player who's just hitting a decline, he's basically in the prime age of his career.  Just a few weeks ago I was offering quite a bit in return for him, thinking surely it's just a matter of time. But now I'm thankful the guy declined my offers.

I mean obviously it's still possible that he could turn it around and I'm sure anyone who has him would be ecstatic for something comparable to his 2017 numbers. But I'm just no longer willing to give up a ton to gamble on it.   I mean all of the peripheral numbers don't really suggest that this is a guy just going through a rough streak or getting unlucky. In fact, I believe I read that his peripheral numbers weren't all that great during his torrid stretch of last season, isn't that correct?

I don't know, I just usually go by the old adage that "you are what you are" in baseball outside of the occasional career year, and usually the averages always settle when the dust clears. But this is one case that just doesn't make sense to me. So were those 4 or 5 months of last season just one unbelievably lucky, extremely hot streak?  I don't know, it just fascinates me. If I had him on my team I STILL wouldn't give him away.

Edited by DFWSooner
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2/23 and 0 BB so far in June. Both hits were singles.

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At this point JRam is going to need an insane second half to finish the year with even respectable numbers. I just don’t see it happening though. Easily the biggest bust of the year so far.

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on pace for a career high 39 stolen bases. I would have gotten rid of this dude a month ago in re-drafts.

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1 hour ago, Dirty Little Birdie said:

anyone catch any interviews with JRAm after his games? im curious as to how he verbalizes his struggles and what he thinks he needs to do to improve. 

What interviews?

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23 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

At this point JRam is going to need an insane second half to finish the year with even respectable numbers. I just don’t see it happening though. Easily the biggest bust of the year so far.

 

I think you'd be hard pressed to find a bigger bust in fantasy history. He just sucks. 

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14 minutes ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

I think you'd be hard pressed to find a bigger bust in fantasy history. He just sucks. 

 

I cant think of a worse first round pick, injuries excluded. 

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Closest thing I can remember approaching this level of God awful play from someone with high expectations was when I owned Adam Dunn in his first season with the White Sox in 2011 and he hit .159 over 500 PA's. 

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1 hour ago, cs3 said:

What interviews?

I don’t know - I’m just assuming their guys get interviewed after games as many of the other teams do. I’m a Yankee guy so I’m used to seeing the media asking questions and getting quotes after games. 

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51 minutes ago, PhilsPhan90 said:

Closest thing I can remember approaching this level of God awful play from someone with high expectations was when I owned Adam Dunn in his first season with the White Sox in 2011 and he hit .159 over 500 PA's. 

I owned Dunn that year too. We didn’t have to spend a top 5 pick to get him though so Ramirez is much worse when you factor in the cost.

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13 hours ago, Dislimb said:

2/23 and 0 BB so far in June. Both hits were singles.

No strikeouts either so at the very least he is putting the ball in play. Just from watching the games recently, I swear teams are shifting against him every time he comes up to bat. That is a major factor right now.

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12 hours ago, PhilsPhan90 said:

Closest thing I can remember approaching this level of God awful play from someone with high expectations was when I owned Adam Dunn in his first season with the White Sox in 2011 and he hit .159 over 500 PA's. 

Which is strange because he simply forgot how to hit and was swinging through everything.  Ramirez K rates are elite.  I haven’t seen a worse hitting profile from someone who could put bat on the ball since Ron Belliard.  

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I tuned into the Yankees game when I saw he was due up in the order. What an excruciating thing to watch. Three ugly swings and he was disposed of. 

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21 hours ago, Tugginroot said:

Dropped

 

glad you did. he is not worth it. should have done it a month ago.

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