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Jose Ramirez 2019 Outlook

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22 hours ago, PhilsPhan90 said:

Closest thing I can remember approaching this level of God awful play from someone with high expectations was when I owned Adam Dunn in his first season with the White Sox in 2011 and he hit .159 over 500 PA's. 

 

2011 Carl Crawford?

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2 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

2011 Carl Crawford?

 

His .255 AVG, .290 OBP, .150 ISO, and .700 OPS blow JoRam out of the water.

 

I'll take "Phrases I never in a million years thought I'd be saying back in March" for $500, Alex. 

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3 minutes ago, PhilsPhan90 said:

 

His .255 AVG, .290 OBP, .150 ISO, and .700 OPS blow JoRam out of the water.

 

I'll take "Phrases I never in a million years thought I'd be saying back in March" for $500, Alex. 

 

No argument there.  Was just trying to come up with another epic, non injury, first round bust.

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4 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

No argument there.  Was just trying to come up with another epic, non injury, first round bust.

 

Unfortunately, I believe we're witnessing history. 

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Hard to remember a performance this bad and unexpected in all my years of playing fantasy that didn’t involve an injury. Closest thing coming to mind is 2015 Eddie Lacy. Unanimous 1st round pick and total disappointment. There’s still a lot of season left but it goes without saying that JoRam has been a total fantasy bust to this point in regard to ADP. Almost completely useless so far aside from the stolen bases. I hope many of you cut bait early for a solid return before his value really started taking a hit. As many have said, the reality is that there’s not much hope for a turnaround with each week that passes. Already nearing mid-June and this guy has been garbage for nearly a full year dating back to last season. Still shocking that he’s batting under .200 still with just a handful of HRs. Ranked in the 700s in one of my leagues. Just a sad story this year..

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Would love to see some quotes from him trying to explain what's happening. Do the Indians not have any beat reporters?

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3 hours ago, 89Topps said:

 

No argument there.  Was just trying to come up with another epic, non injury, first round bust.

I mean Goldy looked like that up to this point last year didn't he...

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4 minutes ago, terminator10 said:

I mean Goldy looked like that up to this point last year didn't he...

 

On June 9th of last year, Goldschmidt had 41 R, 12 HR, 29 RBI, .250 AVG, .360 OBP, .855 OPS. 

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6 hours ago, 89Topps said:

 

No argument there.  Was just trying to come up with another epic, non injury, first round bust.

 

2018 Chris Davis

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He's been bad but nowhere near time for a drop. Unless you are in a league with small starting lineups....There isn't anyone on the wire that is putting up his points. I think you just have to hold on and wait it out. 

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9 hours ago, phillyphan21 said:

Hey, maybe he'll be the last round flier that wins you the league next year. 

 

Will be interesting to see his ADP.  My guess in most leagues someone will believe this season is an aberration and pull the trigger in about the seventh around.

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Man wish I could get my hands on a Joram bobble head. Take him to the golf course, pull out my best driver and take a wild hack like I'm Gary Sheffield. Won't solve all my fantasy problems, but would feel dam good lol.

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5 hours ago, mlb2019 said:

 

2018 Chris Davis

Chris Davis bust year as a 1st rounder was actually 2014.

In 2013 he hit .286 with 53 HRs, 103 runs, 138 RBI along with a 1.004 OPS and he was a consensus 1st rounder in 2014

In 2014 he hit .196 with 26 HRs, 65 runs, 72 RBI with a .704 OPS

 

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Grady Sizemore was a highly ranked fantasy stud going into the 2009 season after a 30/30 year in 2008. Although his fall off was due mostly to injury you can't help but look at the similarities in both situations. Both Sizemore and Ramirez put up their best best stats in their age 25 season and then quickly dropped production in their age 26 season. Sizemore was never the same after 08. Only time will tell with JoRam.

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Did the leg injury early factor into anything?  He did get carted off the field in final spring training game.  At that time people expressed concern that he was constantly fouling balls off his body so much.  Has something happened with his swing?

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ZiPS ROS projections-

.271/57/15 HR/51/18 SB

I actually asked the creator of the projections, Dan Szymborski, about the rest of season model for clarification. I wasn’t sure if this was still based on who he was heading into the season or if it updates to include this year’s data.

He explained that it’s updated each day. His reply:

“A new projection for each player is generated every morning, with the new data forming the basis for a new projection. It's a simpler model than the regular ZiPS model, for practical reasons. So ZiPS saw a 142 wRC+ as Ramirez's expected midpoint going into 2019 and at this point, with the new data included, that projection going forward is only 119 for the rest of 2019.”

As a fellow frustrated owner, I was contemplating a trade and was looking at some things. This had me a little bit hopeful at the rest of season outlook (as hard as that is to do). 

And if I wasn’t an owner, and needed a “lotto ticket” to potentially win a league, I might attempt to buy low from a frustrated owner.

Do with this what you will. Just wanted to share.

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9 hours ago, Osu1456 said:

Grady Sizemore was a highly ranked fantasy stud going into the 2009 season after a 30/30 year in 2008. Although his fall off was due mostly to injury you can't help but look at the similarities in both situations. Both Sizemore and Ramirez put up their best best stats in their age 25 season and then quickly dropped production in their age 26 season. Sizemore was never the same after 08. Only time will tell with JoRam.

 

I get what you’re saying, but having watched both...Sizemore was so clearly a byproduct of injury and time away that I just don’t think the comparison is fair. He couldn’t stay on the field.

Whereas Ramirez has been playing and just had some huge lapse in the middle of last year that’s ongoing. Like didn’t he hit .210 after the ASB last year? 

So, macro, definitely similarities in breakout/drop off. But zoom in and it’s for very different reasons. Jose still has a lot more room to adjust. Where everyone was pretty sure Grady would never make it back. 

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1 hour ago, Backdoor Slider said:

ZiPS ROS projections-

.271/57/15 HR/51/18 SB

I actually asked the creator of the projections, Dan Szymborski, about the rest of season model for clarification. I wasn’t sure if this was still based on who he was heading into the season or if it updates to include this year’s data.

He explained that it’s updated each day. His reply:

“A new projection for each player is generated every morning, with the new data forming the basis for a new projection. It's a simpler model than the regular ZiPS model, for practical reasons. So ZiPS saw a 142 wRC+ as Ramirez's expected midpoint going into 2019 and at this point, with the new data included, that projection going forward is only 119 for the rest of 2019.”

As a fellow frustrated owner, I was contemplating a trade and was looking at some things. This had me a little bit hopeful at the rest of season outlook (as hard as that is to do). 

And if I wasn’t an owner, and needed a “lotto ticket” to potentially win a league, I might attempt to buy low from a frustrated owner.

Do with this what you will. Just wanted to share.

 

I think you might be the last one here with any shred of hope. I don't have him anywhere, simply morbidly curious of his season but I honestly don't think I'd spend more than a quarter on draft day dollar at this point. At a certain point a guy is just done.

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I'm still trying to buy low on him. Picked up another share last week. I sold two of my shares early in the season but the price is so low right now its worth the risk. Sure he may never get going and be a dud but as Backdoorsliders stated he has league winning upside. You can trade an overperforming guy for him and hope he catches fire. 

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Finally moved on, [...] If Jram turns it around good for him and any owners willing to take a shot he will bounce back at this point. He's shown some baby steps but still not giving me a lot of hope, especially with the struggles going back to last year. 

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Bench Coach content

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3 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

ZiPS ROS projections-

.271/57/15 HR/51/18 SB

I actually asked the creator of the projections, Dan Szymborski, about the rest of season model for clarification. I wasn’t sure if this was still based on who he was heading into the season or if it updates to include this year’s data.

He explained that it’s updated each day. His reply:

“A new projection for each player is generated every morning, with the new data forming the basis for a new projection. It's a simpler model than the regular ZiPS model, for practical reasons. So ZiPS saw a 142 wRC+ as Ramirez's expected midpoint going into 2019 and at this point, with the new data included, that projection going forward is only 119 for the rest of 2019.”

As a fellow frustrated owner, I was contemplating a trade and was looking at some things. This had me a little bit hopeful at the rest of season outlook (as hard as that is to do). 

And if I wasn’t an owner, and needed a “lotto ticket” to potentially win a league, I might attempt to buy low from a frustrated owner.

Do with this what you will. Just wanted to share.

Its interesting how the creator of the projections claims that a new projection is generated each and every morning but he still has Andrew McCutchen listed in his ROS projections and he's out for the remainder of the year.

 

image.png.91dc56a873dd3accc078346c7762fc31.png 

Edited by quietj
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Worst season I can remember by a top 100 ADP player was Andruw Jones 2008 with the Dodgers.  He was coming off a down final year in Atlanta, but had 9 years prior of high-level production.  He was being drafted in the top 50 for an expected rebound, IIRC, and proceeded to go .158/.256/.249 with 3 HRS and awful counting stats across 238 PAs.  But part of the explanation for Jones' problem was simple.  Dude ballooned 30 pounds in the offseason prior (all fat) and was swinging a cement bat.

 

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5 hours ago, quietj said:

Its interesting how the creator of the projections claims that a new projection is generated each and every morning but he still has Andrew McCutchen listed in his ROS projections and he's out for the remainder of the year.

 

image.png.91dc56a873dd3accc078346c7762fc31.png 

Lol.

Feel free to poke holes into the projection system. I have no stake. But I guess I’ll explain this to you.

These projection systems aren’t done by hand each morning. A bunch of guys don’t sit around updating them. It’s going to be a complicated math equation, like (last 3 seasons, + this season, divided by pi, = ROS projections). Because of this, it would continue to spit out ROS numbers for an injured player. Something like that would have to be entered manually, obviously, and has zero to do with Ramirez.

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