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jfazz23

Jose Ramirez 2019 Outlook

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Just now, brockpapersizer said:

 

If your league is 5x5, he's approx the 24th most valuable player on the season, not 47. It's math, not opinion. 

 

I'm not trying to get into an argument or derail a thread. It's all subjective. Math can be manipulated. I'll let you have the last word because you care more about it than I do.

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1 minute ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I'm not trying to get into an argument or derail a thread. It's all subjective. Math can be manipulated. I'll let you have the last word because you care more about it than I do.

 

Thank you. It's math, not opinion. The ESPN Player Rater is a better player rater than the Yahoo one if your goal is to figure out who was more valuable in a 5x5 league.

Edited by brockpapersizer

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What if it's not 5x5? Does ESPN adjust rankings for individual league settings?

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3 minutes ago, cs3 said:

What if it's not 5x5? Does ESPN adjust rankings for individual league settings?

 

Yes they do, but you only find specific league ratings within the league. Anyone has access to 5x5 even if you don't play espn. If you're in like an ops league or qs league in espn you can just go to the player tab, select all and then research and sort by year within your league. Unfortunately if your non traditional stat  league is on yahoo (which is perfectly great to play on) your stuck without an accurate player rater unless you set up a dummy league on espn with the same settings. I know Tony uses his own player rater and you could probably do that too. 

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Actually I misspoke, he is not 23 on the player rater. He's the #23 hitter. Apologies. There are 20 pitchers who have been more valuable this year, making J-Ram 43.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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3 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Actually I misspoke, he is not 23 on the player rater. He's the #23 hitter. Apologies. There are 20 pitchers who have been more valuable this year, making J-Ram 43.

screw pitchers. at this point give me the guy who can go 30/30 with a decent avg and counting stats.

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On 8/10/2019 at 2:15 PM, treyjuice said:

 

Fair to say that this gentlemen didn’t have the best take.

 

J-Ram has been the MVP of the second half. Hope the apologists held pat with him, or the savvy owners picked him up at a discount . 

 

I mean, that is only a bad take in hindsight. I'm glad to see he's turned it around, but at the time he looked like straight s---. Like, guys have been DFAed for that kind of performance bad. Sure, maybe the emojis in the original comment were a bit over the top, but if you point to a person who believed in J-Ram at the end of June I can point to a liar. 

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9 minutes ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

I mean, that is only a bad take in hindsight. I'm glad to see he's turned it around, but at the time he looked like straight s---. Like, guys have been DFAed for that kind of performance bad. Sure, maybe the emojis in the original comment were a bit over the top, but if you point to a person who believed in J-Ram at the end of June I can point to a liar. 

 

Nope. Just because you think NO ONE believed in him, some people actually knew the dude was a great hitter with a legit track record and chalked up his first half to just a bad slump, period. To say EVERY PERSON in the world thought he was a lost cause (ie, didn't believe in him) is simply without any foundation in fact. 

This forum is a perfect example. Go to any thread of a slumping player and you WILL FIND at least someone who has not lost hope and understands the game of baseball is challenging and unforgiving and sometimes a player gets off the tracks and looks bad/lost. But if the player is a proven, good player you HAVE to believe they will get it back.

Edited by kwolf68

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1 minute ago, kwolf68 said:

 

Nope. Just because you think NO ONE believed in him, some people actually knew the dude was a great hitter with a legit track record and chalked up his first half to just a bad slump, period. To say EVERY PERSON in the world thought he was a lost cause (ie, didn't believe in him) is simply without any foundation in fact. 

I agree, I traded for him towards the end of June and only had to give up barely anything for him because I saw his profile and looked at the advanced metrics between this year and last.  There was a lot of bad luck in there.  He's not a premium power hitter so his HRs will fluctuate greatly, and will vastly improve as the games start getting warmer.  

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24 minutes ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

I mean, that is only a bad take in hindsight. I'm glad to see he's turned it around, but at the time he looked like straight s---. Like, guys have been DFAed for that kind of performance bad. Sure, maybe the emojis in the original comment were a bit over the top, but if you point to a person who believed in J-Ram at the end of June I can point to a liar. 

Guys coming off of one very good season and one MVP level season do not get dropped regardless of how bad their first 1/3 of the season is. Also, I turned down a Baez deal and a Moncada deal for him so pretty sure I believed.

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12 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Guys coming off of one very good season and one MVP level season do not get dropped regardless of how bad their first 1/3 of the season is. Also, I turned down a Baez deal and a Moncada deal for him so pretty sure I believed.

 

June's not a third of the season, it's half a season. Besides that, he was awful, and I mean awful from August 2018 through June 2019. Obviously he wasn't getting dropped because he was a first round pick, my point was that for what amounted to pretty close to a full season he performed like a bottom tier player. Again, I'm glad he turned it around. He is a great player, but he's also quite possibly the streakiest player in the league.

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30 minutes ago, kwolf68 said:

 

Nope. Just because you think NO ONE believed in him, some people actually knew the dude was a great hitter with a legit track record and chalked up his first half to just a bad slump, period. To say EVERY PERSON in the world thought he was a lost cause (ie, didn't believe in him) is simply without any foundation in fact. 

This forum is a perfect example. Go to any thread of a slumping player and you WILL FIND at least someone who has not lost hope and understands the game of baseball is challenging and unforgiving and sometimes a player gets off the tracks and looks bad/lost. But if the player is a proven, good player you HAVE to believe they will get it back.

 

Yes Mr. Pedantic, I'm sure some believed in him. But you'd agree the vast majority thought he was done, right? Again, any take trashing him from back in June is only bad in hindsight. I don't really think we can blame anyone for quitting on him back in June, he turned it around but at the time was looking like possibly the biggest bust in fantasy history.

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1 hour ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

I mean, that is only a bad take in hindsight. I'm glad to see he's turned it around, but at the time he looked like straight s---. Like, guys have been DFAed for that kind of performance bad. Sure, maybe the emojis in the original comment were a bit over the top, but if you point to a person who believed in J-Ram at the end of June I can point to a liar. 

 

So you’re calling me a liar? I hang onto him thru all of the bad points and never benched him for even one game. I believed in him at the end of June because the first half was oit of character with the rest kf his career, and I believed he would turn it around at some point. 

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1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

 

So you’re calling me a liar? I hang onto him thru all of the bad points and never benched him for even one game. I believed in him at the end of June because the first half was oit of character with the rest kf his career, and I believed he would turn it around at some point. 

 

That part was admittedly hyperbolic. My point was just that many baseball fans had given up on JRam due to five months of awful play. All I'm really saying is that you can't really blame people for thinking he was a bust back in June. I really don't see how that's controversial at all. 

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3 hours ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

I mean, that is only a bad take in hindsight. I'm glad to see he's turned it around, but at the time he looked like straight s---. Like, guys have been DFAed for that kind of performance bad. Sure, maybe the emojis in the original comment were a bit over the top, but if you point to a person who believed in J-Ram at the end of June I can point to a liar. 

 

I wouldn't say I believe Jram would turn it around to the extent he did, certainly thought it was within the realm of possibilities. That being said he was nowhere near droppable in leagues I play in, and I kept getting vulture offers that were close to essentially dropping him. Tuned em all out, reaping rewards now.

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In other news has anyone seen any stat cast data on JRams footspeed? Was worried last year because is was pretty low overall. Guy must have amazing instincts on the bases. 

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2 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

After last night he passed Soto on the player rater to be the #20 hitter, 38 overall.

Yeah it's pretty crazy how fast he has raced up the boards. Up to  #25 overall in my league. He's one good game a way from jumping both Merrifield and Lemahieu.

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Just now, Tryptamine said:

Yeah it's pretty crazy how fast he has raced up the boards. Up to  #25 overall in my league. He's one good game a way from jumping both Merrifield and Lemahieu.

 

It's pretty nuts. Really shows the value of steals, without 25 of them his miraculous batting improvement wouldn't matter as much on the overall Ranking, but he went from bust to non bust pretty damm quickly.

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4 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

It's pretty nuts. Really shows the value of steals, without 25 of them his miraculous batting improvement wouldn't matter as much on the overall Ranking, but he went from bust to non bust pretty damm quickly.

I think some of the player raters might value SBs a little too much (like ESPN's having Whit ahead of Marte at 2B even though Marte has been better everywhere besides SBs), but still, Jose's incredible rise just shows how insanely hot he's been.  He could very well single handily help people win their leagues, or at least get them in the money if they were struggling along with him (like my team was).

While obviously hopefully he never has a slump to start the season anywhere near this long ever again, it's still two seasons in a row he's started out bad.  It's become expected that once he gets locked in, he's a league winner for however long it lasts.  This time it obviously started so much later that I expect it to keep going pretty much the rest of the way.

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9 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

I think some of the player raters might value SBs a little too much (like ESPN's having Whit ahead of Marte at 2B even though Marte has been better everywhere besides SBs), but still, Jose's incredible rise just shows how insanely hot he's been.  

While obviously hopefully he never has a slump to start the season anywhere near this long ever again, it's still two seasons in a row he's started out bad.  

Ketel Marte is currently 10 and Whit is 15. Marte currently the #1 2b. The PR doesn't advise you who to take next year, it's just telling you who has provided more value.  Steals are worth like 3  or so HR currently based on scarcity.  Doesn't mean if you have 3 30 steals guys you win your league, because you don't need to win steals, even in roto, but it does add a ton of value to any player who is elite in steals.

 

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Also J-Ram had an OPS North of 900 in each of his first .4 months last year.  He had 2 hitless games in March, but I don't think that should matter. So, I'm not quite sure where you got the slump to start last year from. He finished on a slump for sure.

 

I agree with everything else you said. Props to the people who managed to get him on the cheap at the right time.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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4 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Ketel Marte is currently 10 and Whit is 15. Marte currently the #1 2b. The PR doesn't advise you who to take next year, it's just telling you who has provided more value.  Steals are worth like 3  or so HR currently based on scarcity.  Doesn't mean if you have 3 30 steals guys you win your league, because you don't need to win steals, even in roto, but it does add a ton of value to any player who is elite in steals.

Also J-Ram had an OPS North of 900 in each of his first .4 months last year.  He had 2 hitless games in March, but I don't think that should matter. So, I'm not quite sure where you got the slump to start last year from. He finished on a slump for sure.

 

I agree with everything else you said. Props to the people who managed to get him on the cheap at the right time.

My bad.  The last time I looked (a few days ago or so), Whit was ahead of Marte on the player rater.  Marte's recent 4-5 game might have helped.

Jose started off last season awful just like basically their whole team, possibly because of how bad the weather was to start off last season.  After the first 10 games of last season, he was batting .086 with a .171 SLG%.  Then the game after, the switch flipped and obviously the rest is history.  Not to be rude or anything, but I thought that was pretty much common knowledge amongst most people.

I think I might be one of the few people who didn't get him (or get him back) on the cheap, but he's still been worth it regardless.

 

22 minutes ago, Dirtywater97 said:

How in the world are they batting him 5th? Obviously he has cured his woes. They need to move him up ASAP. 

Carlos Santana.  Granted he was ice cold when Jose got hot, so a switch should have been made then, but now Santana is red hot again, so I think Jose is staying there.  Best case scenario is Jose gets moved up to the #2 hole if Mercado doesn't get it going, which would be fine.  It would obviously hurt his RBIs a bit, but I'd have no problem with the move if Mercado doesn't get it going again.

The problem with moving Ramirez up is they would have nobody to bat 5th.  Reyes has been pretty bad so far, so Kipnis would really be the only viable option.  Oddly enough, with a good Mercado, Ramirez batting 5th makes their lineup better whether I've wanted Ramirez moved up for a while now too or not.

Edited by KilloWertz

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22 hours ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

I mean, that is only a bad take in hindsight. I'm glad to see he's turned it around, but at the time he looked like straight s---. Like, guys have been DFAed for that kind of performance bad. Sure, maybe the emojis in the original comment were a bit over the top, but if you point to a person who believed in J-Ram at the end of June I can point to a liar. 

 

When you point at someone you have 4 fingers pointing back at you :) .   

 

"The uber-talented third baseman is a prime second half bounce-back candidate." -  This is from the Rotoworld blurb on June 23rd. I traded for him shortly after this. Sometimes the haters are just louder and more boisterous . 

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ESPN Player Raters do overrate guys who have negative value stats because the replacement level calculations are too low for how fantasy baseball actually works. Since the vast majority of stat lines come from guys who did not play a full season. 

That is just because PR are only designed to compare stat lines.  30 runs is 30 runs, no matter if it comes in 50 games or 150. PR gives it the same value, because it's only comparing stat lines. It cares not for games played. At least the ESPN player does that. Which is fair in one sense. Its a PLAYER RATER, after all... but terrible when getting a feel what replacement level is for stat lines are. Plugging in a player to get 30 Runs in 120 games is terribly in-efficient and it doesn't really reflect that good enough IMO.

So solo base stealers are overrated towards functional utility, Yes...but the stat stuffers like Jose Ramirez are usually on point in terms of value.

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