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Jose Ramirez 2019 Outlook

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Getting off topic but Player Rater is just standard deviations above the mean for each stat for a player. 

 

So ESPN will see what the average number of HRs players in the MLB have, what the standard deviation is for that stat, and then use those to determine the PR value for each player. 

 

If the average number of HRs in the MLB for a batter is 15, and the standard deviation is 3, and player X hit 21 homeruns, their PR value for HR would be (21-15)/3 = 2

 

So ESPN isn't really "overvaluing" one stat or another, its just that so many batters don't steal bases that it brings the average number of steals down, but at the same time the standard deviation for SB would be higher, normalizing the PR value a little bit. 

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Couldn't trade this guy for a fringe player earlier this season. The only reason why he wasn't cut back in June was because of the stolen bases. He was a negative in just about every other cat. For the guys claiming to believe in him just because they didn't drop him, just stop. You didn't drop him because the SB's were providing some value but for half of the season he screwed up your team as a top 5 overall pick. Let's not make him out the be some kind of second half hero here, he buried his owners during the 1st half and most won't recover even with a huge 2nd half. Most of his owner probably played the fantasy version of musical chairs in order to make up for his lack of production. They probably did this even while starting him too which makes it even worse because most of the times that strategy won't work out. 

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31 minutes ago, Fantasy Baseball Geek said:

Couldn't trade this guy for a fringe player earlier this season. The only reason why he wasn't cut back in June was because of the stolen bases. He was a negative in just about every other cat. For the guys claiming to believe in him just because they didn't drop him, just stop. You didn't drop him because the SB's were providing some value but for half of the season he screwed up your team as a top 5 overall pick. Let's not make him out the be some kind of second half hero here, he buried his owners during the 1st half and most won't recover even with a huge 2nd half. Most of his owner probably played the fantasy version of musical chairs in order to make up for his lack of production. They probably did this even while starting him too which makes it even worse because most of the times that strategy won't work out. 

 

Couldn’t disagree more.  I chose not to cut bait because there was absolutely no risk in keeping him after his start.  That’s like saying people that owned him last year benched him after his torrid start.  You don’t cut first round picks unless they’re out for the year, and if you do, then you abide by a strategy I never will.  I offered him plenty for 70 cents on the dollar, no takers.  It worked out for sure, but in no reality did I think he would continue to be as bad as he started.

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1 hour ago, Fantasy Baseball Geek said:

The only reason why he wasn't cut back in June was because of the stolen bases. He was a negative in just about every other cat. For the guys claiming to believe in him just because they didn't drop him, just stop. You didn't drop him because the SB's were providing some value but for half of the season he screwed up your team

Wrong, as usual. In fact, in the leagues I own him, steals are not even worth much at all.

The reason he wasn't dropped is because most owners are not impatient morons, and realize that it's extremely likely all players will regress towards their recent career averages. This kind of hot streak is something that he's been capable of for the past 2+ years, and dropping him at any point would've been beyond stupid

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5 hours ago, cs3 said:

Wrong, as usual. In fact, in the leagues I own him, steals are not even worth much at all.

The reason he wasn't dropped is because most owners are not impatient morons, and realize that it's extremely likely all players will regress towards their recent career averages. This kind of hot streak is something that he's been capable of for the past 2+ years, and dropping him at any point would've been beyond stupid

Wrong as usual? So for the first three months of the season he wasn't one of the all time busts for a top 5 pick? I never said he was droppable either, as a matter of fact I said the steals were the only value he provided. Saying that you absolutely that knew he would come out of an almost year long slump is pretty stupid and easy to say after a hot 5 weeks. He had 5 homers and 30 rbis through the end of June. If he didn't alter your in season strategy because of his terrible start then that means you're a terrible owner to boot. There was no way you were banking on that terrible start from your 1st round pick. He was a black hole taking up a starting roster spot because of where he was drafted. I'm excited that he's finally providing proper value now but the damage is done. In deeper leagues, in H2H leagues and in most competitive leagues, you are NOT recovering from his all time terrible start.

 

But congratulations, 4 and half months into the season you finally get to say Jose Ramirez is playing like a top 5 pick LMAOOOOOOOOOO!

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7 hours ago, Triple Crown25 said:

 

Couldn’t disagree more.  I chose not to cut bait because there was absolutely no risk in keeping him after his start.  That’s like saying people that owned him last year benched him after his torrid start.  You don’t cut first round picks unless they’re out for the year, and if you do, then you abide by a strategy I never will.  I offered him plenty for 70 cents on the dollar, no takers.  It worked out for sure, but in no reality did I think he would continue to be as bad as he started.

 

I stand by what I said. If it weren't for the SB's then he was droppable. He was batting 218 with 5 homers and 30 rbis! He was among the league leaders for steals and that's why no one dropped him. I don't think when he was drafted as a top 5 pick his owners were expecting his first 3 months of the season to go the way it did. Go back and read this thread from May and June, some of his most recent cheerleaders were nowhere to be found! 

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4 hours ago, Fantasy Baseball Geek said:

Wrong as usual? So for the first three months of the season he wasn't one of the all time busts for a top 5 pick? I never said he was droppable either, as a matter of fact I said the steals were the only value he provided. Saying that you absolutely that knew he would come out of an almost year long slump is pretty stupid and easy to say after a hot 5 weeks. He had 5 homers and 30 rbis through the end of June. If he didn't alter your in season strategy because of his terrible start then that means you're a terrible owner to boot. There was no way you were banking on that terrible start from your 1st round pick. He was a black hole taking up a starting roster spot because of where he was drafted. I'm excited that he's finally providing proper value now but the damage is done. In deeper leagues, in H2H leagues and in most competitive leagues, you are NOT recovering from his all time terrible start.

 

But congratulations, 4 and half months into the season you finally get to say Jose Ramirez is playing like a top 5 pick LMAOOOOOOOOOO!

don't think that's very fair or accurate. if you took escobar, elvis andrus (very hot start) eddie Rosario, meadows, moncada, moose, joc, pete Alonso, k marte, bell, dj, santana, mancini, domingo, then players that got hot a little later like devers soler kepler laueron tatis ect (cant remember but im sure im missing some other players that were drafted for peanuts that carried fantasy teams the first month or 2 of the season).

one bad pick doesn't sink any team even in 14-16 teamers.

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3 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

don't think that's very fair or accurate. if you took escobar, elvis andrus (very hot start) eddie Rosario, meadows, moncada, moose, joc, pete Alonso, k marte, bell, dj, santana, mancini, domingo, then players that got hot a little later like devers soler kepler laueron tatis ect (cant remember but im sure im missing some other players that were drafted for peanuts that carried fantasy teams the first month or 2 of the season).

one bad pick doesn't sink any team even in 14-16 teamers.

 

I can agree with that to a certain extent. As a matter of fact I subscribe to that notion for the most part. Here's the problem with J-Ram's first three months though, he actually negatively impacted your team to the point where you probably were better off benching him, especially in H2H. Good news here is that if you were able to withstand that start, and let's be honest here it really depends on how competitive and league type, then you're in good shape if he keeps this up. 

 

Here's some disgusting stats for those defending his first three months:

between 4/16 and 5/13: 7 Runs, 2 homers, 10 rbi's going 6/90 and at one point during this epic stretch he was 1/52!

As late as June 13th he was hitting .198 

I could go on and on but my point here is that he was so epically bad for the first three months of the season that he was a rare case where he alone could ruin a fantasy team. I hate to attach my own teams to these topics but I do have a great example. I have him in two leagues. In a standard 5X5 roto my team is fine. I don't see a path to winning unless he keeps up his current pace but atleast it's competitive. But in another league that has OBP and SLG as cats I am dead and he's the prime suspect in that murder investigation. 

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Who’s defending his first three months? I kept him because I believed he would turn it around. I would never keep starting a player who was that negative everyday just for his steals. That would be stupid and is asinine to even suggest. If he had no track record, I would have cut him loose, steals or not. But because of his track record, not only did I keep him, but I kept starting him. You act like we had no reason to believe he’d turn it around, and yet he has a career that gave every reason to believe he would. But thanks for telling what I believe and how I feel and why I kept playing him. What ever would I do without a complete stranger revealing my true motivations to me? I guess we’re all just liars. 

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40 minutes ago, Fantasy Baseball Geek said:

 

I can agree with that to a certain extent. As a matter of fact I subscribe to that notion for the most part. Here's the problem with J-Ram's first three months though, he actually negatively impacted your team to the point where you probably were better off benching him, especially in H2H. Good news here is that if you were able to withstand that start, and let's be honest here it really depends on how competitive and league type, then you're in good shape if he keeps this up. 

 

Here's some disgusting stats for those defending his first three months:

between 4/16 and 5/13: 7 Runs, 2 homers, 10 rbi's going 6/90 and at one point during this epic stretch he was 1/52!

As late as June 13th he was hitting .198 

I could go on and on but my point here is that he was so epically bad for the first three months of the season that he was a rare case where he alone could ruin a fantasy team. I hate to attach my own teams to these topics but I do have a great example. I have him in two leagues. In a standard 5X5 roto my team is fine. I don't see a path to winning unless he keeps up his current pace but atleast it's competitive. But in another league that has OBP and SLG as cats I am dead and he's the prime suspect in that murder investigation. 

True he could’ve ruined your team earlier In the year but that’s not necessarily the case if you benched him and held on to him. After awhile most smart owners would have benched him after his horrid start to the season. He can’t ruin a team from the bench. I just think of it like stashing a top prospect or something along those lines. Yeah he’s eating up a bench spot but the payoff later could be significant. Same if you were stashing Yordan Alvarez all year (not in an NA spot) or another top prospect such as Lux or Roberts (even though they’re likely not to be up this year). My point is you hold on to, or invest in, his upside in hopes for a significant payout at some point in future weeks. He didn’t ruin my team because I found a viable replacement for him and stayed with him on my bench until he started heating up. It’s the owners fault if they started him during his cold streak and let him ruin their season.

Edited by Csiebert5
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1 hour ago, Fantasy Baseball Geek said:

But in another league that has OBP and SLG as cats I am dead and he's the prime suspect in that murder investigation.

Maybe you're just not good at making adjustments then. More likely the rest of your team is just bad and Ramirez wasn't going to save your team no matter what. Blaming the outcome of a fantasy baseball season on any 1 player is ridiculous. That's something that inexperienced or lazy owners do.

Also, you keep harping on this " defending his first 3 months" nonsense. Nobody is "defending' his awful start. What everyone is saying, and what seems to be completely escaping your understanding, is that no matter how bad he was, it was extremely likely that he would get better and start producing at a high level.

You keep repeating "ya but people only kept him on their teams because steals!!!". YOU ARE WRONG. I already explained why but you ignored it.

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27 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Who’s defending his first three months? I kept him because I believed he would turn it around. I would never keep starting a player who was that negative everyday just for his steals. That would be stupid and is asinine to even suggest. If he had no track record, I would have cut him loose, steals or not. But because of his track record, not only did I keep him, but I kept starting him. You act like we had no reason to believe he’d turn it around, and yet he has a career that gave every reason to believe he would. But thanks for telling what I believe and how I feel and why I kept playing him. What ever would I do without a complete stranger revealing my true motivations to me? I guess we’re all just liars. 

 

So you predicted that he was going to turn it around? What was he showing you that made you feel that way? 

 

30 minutes ago, Csiebert5 said:

True he could’ve ruined your team earlier In the year but that’s not necessarily the case if you benched him and held on to him. After awhile most smart owners would have benched him after his horrid start to the season. He can’t ruin a team from the bench. I just think of it like stashing a top prospect or something along those lines. Yeah he’s eating up a bench spot but the payoff later could be significant. Same if you were stashing Yordan Alvarez all year (not in an NA spot) or another top prospect such as Lux or Roberts (even though they’re likely not to be up this year). My point is you hold on to, or invest in, his upside in hopes for a significant payout at some point in future weeks. He didn’t ruin my team because I found a viable replacement for him and stayed with him on my bench until he started heating up. It’s the owners fault if they started him during his cold streak and let him ruin their season.

 

Look at the dates I listed, no one was benching their top 5 pick (or top keeper) during that time frame or a prolonged period during the first 6 weeks of the season. 

 

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5 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Maybe you're just not good at making adjustments then. More likely the rest of your team is just bad and Ramirez wasn't going to save your team no matter what. Blaming the outcome of a fantasy baseball season on any 1 player is ridiculous. That's something that inexperienced or lazy owners do.

Also, you keep harping on this " defending his first 3 months" nonsense. Nobody is "defending' his awful start. What everyone is saying, and what seems to be completely escaping your understanding, is that no matter how bad he was, it was extremely likely that he would get better and start producing at a high level.

You keep repeating "ya but people only kept him on their teams because steals!!!". YOU ARE WRONG. I already explained why but you ignored it.

 

What did you explain? What did he show through June 28th that he would turn it around? He showed nothing! You're always throwing out numbers out there, show any meaningful statistic from the first three months that he was going to turn it around. 

What kind of adjustments are you making through the first 6 weeks? It's not laziness, it's playing your 1st round pick. His roughest stretch of the season was during the first 6-8 weeks. And he's still not completely recovered despite a torrid 6 week stretch. 

And no they kept him because of the steals and the fact that they were highly invested in him. Other than that he was trash. 

 

Edited by Fantasy Baseball Geek
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17 minutes ago, Fantasy Baseball Geek said:

 

So you predicted that he was going to turn it around? What was he showing you that made you feel that way? 

 

 

Look at the dates I listed, no one was benching their top 5 pick (or top keeper) during that time frame or a prolonged period during the first 6 weeks of the season. 

 

I’d assume the first round level talent from past years and the fact he’s not at the usual decline phase age would be why people held on. People held on the Chris Davis and Byron Buxton because they believed too. Some come out of it. Some get held onto every year until it can’t be justified anymore. When it goes well you’re a great manager. When it doesn’t you’re the guy in the basement. I’m sure almost everyone has that player they value much higher than anyone else in the league. 

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I will also add for guys like Ramirez, most owners wanna hold until the late summer anyways when the ball carries more. I mean Adam laroche was owned in a ton of leagues and was a known liability the first half of most seasons (career .248 average first half compared to .275 second half. Same number of hrs despite 900 more PAs)

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17 minutes ago, Fantasy Baseball Geek said:

 

What did you explain? What did he show through June 28th that he would turn it around? He showed nothing! You're always throwing out numbers out there, show any meaningful statistic from the first three months that he was going to turn it around. 

What kind of adjustments are you making through the first 6 weeks? It's not laziness, it's playing your 1st round pick. His roughest stretch of the season was during the first 6-8 weeks. And he's still not completely recovered despite a torrid 6 week stretch. 

And no they kept him because of the steals and the fact that they were highly invested in him. Other than that he was trash. 

 

Wow this guy doesn't just double down on a bad take... he triple and quadruple downs!

Quote

You're always throwing out numbers out there, show any meaningful statistic from the first three months that he was going to turn it around. 

Ok if these "meaningful statistics" I'm showing don't mean anything to you then I guess you're a lost cause on this one

spacer.pngspacer.pngspacer.png

That should make it crystal clear

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4 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Wow this guy doesn't just double down on a bad take... he triple and quadruple downs!

Ok if these "meaningful statistics" I'm showing don't mean anything to you then I guess you're a lost cause on this one

spacer.pngspacer.pngspacer.png

That should make it crystal clear

 

Great you can post numbers from the previous three seasons. Congrats! Did those same numbers predict that he was going to be trash for the 1st three months of this season? They just fit your narrative now. You weren't posting that in April or May...

And they are meaningless based on how bad he was to start the season. Maybe I'll post his numbers from last August 15th to June 28th this season. My numbers would be more in line with what he's actually been for most of this season. 

Edited by Fantasy Baseball Geek

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I give up. You're clearly not here to learn anything.

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8 minutes ago, cs3 said:

I give up. You're clearly not here to learn anything.

 

Good idea. I've read this entire thread, maybe you can bring something more to the table next time.

Let's hope that he finishes out strong. But his recent track record suggests that we shouldn't be too sure about that, it's 50/50 that he'll have a good September. 

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12 minutes ago, Fantasy Baseball Geek said:

 

Great you can post numbers from the previous three seasons. Congrats! Did those same numbers predict that he was going to be trash for the 1st three months of this season? They just fit your narrative now. You weren't posting that in April or May...

And they are meaningless based on how bad he was to start the season. Maybe I'll post his numbers from last August 15th to June 28th this season. My numbers would be more in line with what he's actually been for most of this season. 

Jeez man, I get the sense you either traded or dropped him right before he came alive. I don’t get the animosity. It’s like 10 against 1 here. Everyone knew Jose Ramirez could produce like he is. He did it last year, he did it the year before and his numbers showed. Hell, even during his cold streak his numbers showed he was probably a little unlucky. From April1-June22: High bb% (11%), low k%(13%), low BABIP (.228), and a low hr/fb (4.4%). Thats just a random date range. He’s an elite talent with an elite skillset. 

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5 minutes ago, Csiebert5 said:

Jeez man, I get the sense you either traded or dropped him right before he came alive. I don’t get the animosity. It’s like 10 against 1 here. Everyone knew Jose Ramirez could produce like he is. He did it last year, he did it the year before and his numbers showed. Hell, even during his cold streak his numbers showed he was probably a little unlucky. From April1-June22: High bb% (11%), low k%(13%), low BABIP (.228), and a low hr/fb (4.4%). Thats just a random date range. He’s an elite talent with an elite skillset. 

 

I didn't trade or drop him. I've still got him. As a matter of fact I benched him from around Memorial Day to about when he returned from the paternity list or after the ASB, I can't remember when exactly. So he didn't end up hurting me too badly.

My issue here is two fold. When he was playing extremely poorly there was no way anyone could say, without guessing, that he would turn it around. To come back now and say that his past two seasons showed that he would turn it around is BS. He was terrible down the stretch last season too. He didn't have the track record of a Goldy.

My other issue here is that he was so bad early on that he hindered the way you would manage your team. In an earlier post I put in a stretch of games where he was particularly terrible. It was around May 15th that most owners would've start to bench him. At that point you already owned and played him during his worst stretch of the season. Remember this is your 1st round pick. No one was benching him for the entire 4 weeks prior to May 15th, it was too early to do that to  your 1st rd pick. So from that point on you were basically managing your team with a short bench. That's also the time where you would be making speculative adds, he affected that part of the game. Then you also had to manage your team around him rather than with him. In tougher leagues you would be hard pressed to find a decent player to plug in there. That is not what you expect from a top 5 pick. 

Truth be told, I did expect him to turn it around. But I'm not going to sit here now that he's doing it and say that I knew it all along.

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46 minutes ago, Fantasy Baseball Geek said:

 

I didn't trade or drop him. I've still got him. As a matter of fact I benched him from around Memorial Day to about when he returned from the paternity list or after the ASB, I can't remember when exactly. So he didn't end up hurting me too badly.

My issue here is two fold. When he was playing extremely poorly there was no way anyone could say, without guessing, that he would turn it around. To come back now and say that his past two seasons showed that he would turn it around is BS. He was terrible down the stretch last season too. He didn't have the track record of a Goldy.

My other issue here is that he was so bad early on that he hindered the way you would manage your team. In an earlier post I put in a stretch of games where he was particularly terrible. It was around May 15th that most owners would've start to bench him. At that point you already owned and played him during his worst stretch of the season. Remember this is your 1st round pick. No one was benching him for the entire 4 weeks prior to May 15th, it was too early to do that to  your 1st rd pick. So from that point on you were basically managing your team with a short bench. That's also the time where you would be making speculative adds, he affected that part of the game. Then you also had to manage your team around him rather than with him. In tougher leagues you would be hard pressed to find a decent player to plug in there. That is not what you expect from a top 5 pick. 

Truth be told, I did expect him to turn it around. But I'm not going to sit here now that he's doing it and say that I knew it all along.

I can agree with you on most your points here. But many people have different opinions than you do. You can’t say that no one could say that he was gonna turn it around from his poor start. That’s just an opinion. He’s a great hitter, great hitters always have the potential to hit great lol even you said at the end of your post you expected him to turn it around. I expected it too and continued to be surprised when he wasn’t producing. I knew he was a great hitter and results had to be coming sooner or later. I’m not gonna lie, I was getting close to dropping him but I still believed in his potential. I still think my comparison to stashing a top prospect earlier was useful in this scenario. He didn’t have quite the track record of Goldy but he still had a smaller track record that showed he could produce elite numbers over the course of a season. You stash him on your bench until he gets going (equivalent to being called up).

You make good points but I still disagree that he ruined teams’ entire year. It was a roadblock for sure but not something season-threatening. Now the dividends are paying off for those who are in playoffs, or fighting for playoffs, etc. 

Theres my opinion. Thanks

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You don't need meaningful stats in the first few months to justify holding a player who was elite for the previous 2-3 years.

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For the first half of the season I was in 1st of 16. I've been in 2nd since then. Yes, ramirez totally ruined my season. Anyone whose owned him over the past few years knows that he doesn't get hot for weeks at a time, rather, months. It was a forced hold situation with or without the steals. Is this guy seriously arguing over why people kept JoRam and didn't trade him for pennies or flat out drop him? He walks almost as much as he strikes out. He has nearly as many xbh as strikeouts. He's 30/30 kind of guy. He's what? 26? On a team that probably wins the division. Quit hating.

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