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jfazz23

Jose Ramirez 2019 Outlook

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I've owned him for a few years and still am a believer, but gotta say with the calendar flipping to May and him still not producing, I'm getting a bit worried.  He's had slow starts the past few April's too, but that was usually for only a few weeks -- dude has been ice cold for the whole month of April, and that's coming off a very quiet second half in 2018.  Verrry long slump.  He's still too good of a hitter to not snap out of this, but he's killing owners right now and likely won't bring a fair return either if you're trying to trade him.  Just gotta ride this out and hope JoRam gets back to being JoRam soon.

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1 hour ago, Yceman1234 said:

I've owned him for a few years and still am a believer, but gotta say with the calendar flipping to May and him still not producing, I'm getting a bit worried.  He's had slow starts the past few April's too, but that was usually for only a few weeks -- dude has been ice cold for the whole month of April, and that's coming off a very quiet second half in 2018.  Verrry long slump.  He's still too good of a hitter to not snap out of this, but he's killing owners right now and likely won't bring a fair return either if you're trying to trade him.  Just gotta ride this out and hope JoRam gets back to being JoRam soon.

I think you could get close to a fair return in keeper/dynasty leagues because I think most people still believe he will bust out of this eventually.  Redraft leagues could be an issue though.

Still, I think trading him would still be difficult because it would be hard to replace his steals.  The rest of his stats are awful, but I'm sure the 9 steals are a big deal for anybody who owns him.  Still holding out hope for him busting out and his SBs are the two main reasons why I haven't tried to move him yet, but he continues to tease.  For every AB he looks like he might be about to bust out, he then takes a step back and does something stupid like try to pull a ball on the outside corner rather than take it the other way like Santana did right after him yesterday.

That also shows how bad he's truly been so far when he has 9 steals and is still outside of the Top 200 on Yahoo...

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8 hours ago, scottishguy said:

Is this dude a sell low or what? I mean I got him for $40 at auction, I think I would take a $20 player

If you're going to sell him at half price, then there's no reason to sell at all.  I can understand the frustration.  I'm right there with you, but there's not much choice other than to hold unless somebody actually does offer you close to his original value.

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56 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

If you're going to sell him at half price, then there's no reason to sell at all.  I can understand the frustration.  I'm right there with you, but there's not much choice other than to hold unless somebody actually does offer you close to his original value.

The thing is, his actually value may very well be half price at this point. He hasn't been good since last June. 

Edited by Jyeatbvg

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1 minute ago, Jyeatbvg said:

The thing is, his actually value may very well be half price at this point. He hasn't been good since last June. 

You aren't wrong, but I've said it before and I'll say it again.  If this is a lot closer to the Jose Ramirez we will be getting from here on out as opposed to the star he was the previous 3 seasons, then there's no point in playing fantasy baseball.  You don't put up an OPS of .957 and .939 in back to back seasons by accident, with the higher OPS actually being in 2017 and not last season.

I fully expected the HRs to drop, but his 2017 season combined with his desire to actually run a lot (unlike before last season when he would stop running for ridiculously long stretches) would potentially make him even more valuable than last season.  In other words, his price shouldn't be considered half.  Again, if it is, I quit...

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9 hours ago, Jyeatbvg said:

The thing is, his actually value may very well be half price at this point. He hasn't been good since last June. 

 

??? He went .267/.407/.522 in June and .322/.441/.722 in July. He started to fall off in August and was plain useless in September, but he was still putting up great numbers in June and July. I did look back at his 2017 and he also had two bad months, May with an OPS of .728 and August with an OPS of .686. I'm thinking he's just that streaky but his overall numbers have been so grand the past two seasons that we just didn't notice. Don't have any shares of him myself, but I do think he'll get hot eventually; it's just this year it's looking like April was one of his bad months.

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5 hours ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

??? He went .267/.407/.522 in June and .322/.441/.722 in July. He started to fall off in August and was plain useless in September, but he was still putting up great numbers in June and July. I did look back at his 2017 and he also had two bad months, May with an OPS of .728 and August with an OPS of .686. I'm thinking he's just that streaky but his overall numbers have been so grand the past two seasons that we just didn't notice. Don't have any shares of him myself, but I do think he'll get hot eventually; it's just this year it's looking like April was one of his bad months.

Point taken, thanks for clarifying! I'll do better than to guess next time :)

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I know I continue to defend Jose in this thread, and for mostly good reason, but he's starting to make it extremely difficult to continue to do so.  Another game without an RBI or an extra base hit, bringing his streak to 7 in a row now.

All we're asking for now is more than 1 game a week where you show a pulse, and then you'd stop teasing us that you look like you're coming around...

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Drafted him 4th overall, arrgghhh...

According to statcast, teams have steadily been throwing more breaking balls to him since 2014 and this season he is seeing them at a career high rate (31.6%). Of those breaking balls, he is swinging and missing 30.8% of the time which is about league average. But the problem is that on the breaking pitches he puts in play, his average Launch Angle is 2, yes 2 lousy degrees, good for 0% barrels on breaking balls. Yikes! He is hitting the ball hard but pretty much straight into the grass. I don't know why anyone would throw him fastballs or offspeed stuff until he can show he can do something besides groundout on sliders and curves.

A couple things give me hope though:

His average exit velo is 90.4 mph, which is still pretty good (70th percentile).

According to fangraphs, his contact% is relatively good (84%) even though his O-swing% is up from last season (26% from 22.3%).

I am not sure of the difference between JoRam's statcast hard hit %, 34.7% (30th percentile), and his fangraphs hard%, 41.1%, which is above their league average of 37%, so will not say for sure if that is a reason for optimism or not. If anyone knows why or how they are different, please.

His launch angle is still there on his fastball and offspeed pitches (23 and 15 deg) so if he can just elevate the ball on those breaking pitches, maybe it won't be too hard for him to turn it around.

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5 hours ago, Bobby Blue said:

Drafted him 4th overall, arrgghhh...

According to statcast, teams have steadily been throwing more breaking balls to him since 2014 and this season he is seeing them at a career high rate (31.6%). Of those breaking balls, he is swinging and missing 30.8% of the time which is about league average. But the problem is that on the breaking pitches he puts in play, his average Launch Angle is 2, yes 2 lousy degrees, good for 0% barrels on breaking balls. Yikes! He is hitting the ball hard but pretty much straight into the grass. I don't know why anyone would throw him fastballs or offspeed stuff until he can show he can do something besides groundout on sliders and curves.

A couple things give me hope though:

His average exit velo is 90.4 mph, which is still pretty good (70th percentile).

According to fangraphs, his contact% is relatively good (84%) even though his O-swing% is up from last season (26% from 22.3%).

I am not sure of the difference between JoRam's statcast hard hit %, 34.7% (30th percentile), and his fangraphs hard%, 41.1%, which is above their league average of 37%, so will not say for sure if that is a reason for optimism or not. If anyone knows why or how they are different, please.

His launch angle is still there on his fastball and offspeed pitches (23 and 15 deg) so if he can just elevate the ball on those breaking pitches, maybe it won't be too hard for him to turn it around.

It would a lot harder for teams to throw break in balls every single time (for fear of SB)  if someone on his team could actually get on base.   Perfect storm for fantasy disappointment here.  

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2 hours ago, buzzkilloton said:

I'm benching him in my weekly league. Guys just a massive turd.

I’m giving it another week. Nova, Giolito, Lopez, Banuelas, Montas and Fiers on tap this week. If he can’t handle that, then I’m worried!

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18 minutes ago, dilly3307 said:

I’m giving it another week. Nova, Giolito, Lopez, Banuelas, Montas and Fiers on tap this week. If he can’t handle that, then I’m worried!

yeah I'm expecting a minimum of 2 homers this week off those guys - although Montas has been pretty good

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got Jose 5th overall, I was laughing. Now I’m crying. Firmly on my bench going forward. 

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When I got him at the turn I was so happy, I swear I had a smile on my face for 10 days, well that baby is upside down now and I swear there are about 20 $15 with upside I would take for him right now!

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I get the slow start but the guy still has 9 SBs and he had two hits and walk yesterday and has a hit every game in May so far. Not the production you were hoping for from your first round pick but you’d think he went 0-4 with 4 Ks yesterday reading all the posts this morning. Had a few doubles over the weekend too so he could be warming up finally. Sell low or be patient. Otherwise you should probably go over to the vent thread.

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As a longtime Ramirez owner, I gotta say this is easily the most frustrating stretch of his career (especially for a lot of us that were counting on him to put up numbers from the jump). This is one of the strangest cases I can remember without any type of serious injury.. I mean the guy put up close to a 40/40 season in 2018! Maybe the MLB is playing a prank on Jose and using non-juiced balls for him? 

Looking for positives: He has started to hit the ball with a little more consistency lately? Has anyone looked @ his mechanics from early last year to this year? 

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It is kind of weird. His hard hit percentage has actually increased!  Somewhat significantly from last season and his FB% is close to last seasons.

 

One thing that does stick out is his Pull% has cratered.  Whether that is significant I do not know.  Seems to indicate a decline in bat speed but he is only 26.

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22 hours ago, B&F said:

It is kind of weird. His hard hit percentage has actually increased!  Somewhat significantly from last season and his FB% is close to last seasons.

 

One thing that does stick out is his Pull% has cratered.  Whether that is significant I do not know.  Seems to indicate a decline in bat speed but he is only 26.

How’s his fly ball to ground ball% looking.  I haven’t looked but I guarantee he’s smashing balls straight into the dirt.  All he gets is off speed junk to hit.  It’ll continue to be a putrid season if he doesn’t have anyone that can hit around him.

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19 minutes ago, Baseball Or Bust said:

How’s his fly ball to ground ball% looking.  I haven’t looked but I guarantee he’s smashing balls straight into the dirt.  All he gets is off speed junk to hit.  It’ll continue to be a putrid season if he doesn’t have anyone that can hit around him.

 

0.74. Last year's was 0.73. GB rate of 32.7 percent (below league average) and FB rate of 44.2 percent (above league average). How I don't have any shares so haven't been paying attention all season, maybe smashing balls into the dirt was the problem before, but if it was it's corrected itself. I still think it was just general JRam streakiness. 

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On 4/5/2019 at 7:32 PM, azeri98 said:

When I was drafting I forgot how bad the Indians line up will be. I doubt he's even a top 20 fantasy player this year

Was blasted for saying this maybe I even overvalued him at not being in the top 20, he might not finish in the top 50

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12 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

Was blasted for saying this maybe I even overvalued him at not being in the top 20, he might not finish in the top 50

 

Sometimes a guy will go all-in on an inside straight draw. They have a very low chance of hitting it on the river. Sometimes they hit that inside straight and act like they knew what they were doing all along, that it wasn't complete and total luck that they were "correct".

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