Boudewijn

(Way Too) Early RB Rankings 2019

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29 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

Jets have an up and coming qb and decent weapons. I’ll need to look into their oline more but bell is a FF monster. Would be very surprised if he wasn’t a top 5 rb this year

This is also conjecture and I admit as such, but him not turning up for (voluntary) mini camp just dosen't sit right with me. After all the flack he got last year, you think he would at least do this good faith gesture to show his commitment.

Then again, Gase said he's in great shape so this is all just May bull**** in the end.

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51 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

If he plays all the games I'd agree. There is risk though. What happens if the Jets get off to a bad start? Bell is awesome but a headcase.

After not playing for a year I would be very surprised if he wasn’t full go now, even if jets weren’t in playoff contention. Don’t think they’re going to full on suck, but I suppose that is a possibility. I think gurley is more likely to miss games with his phantom injury than bell is to sit them out 

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1 hour ago, hoppychokes said:

This is also conjecture and I admit as such, but him not turning up for (voluntary) mini camp just dosen't sit right with me. After all the flack he got last year, you think he would at least do this good faith gesture to show his commitment.

Then again, Gase said he's in great shape so this is all just May bull**** in the end.

That is a concern of mine as well, but could it really be any worse than Eddie lacy, I mean Zeke? 

 

While he probably is in good shape, I agree not showing up for voluntary workouts isn’t exactly a good start

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Didnt he weigh 260 pounds at a point? Are we sure he is in good shape?

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16 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

Wait, did leveon die? He’s not a consensus top 5? 

 

- 19 months will have elapsed between regular season touches.  Risk of slow start and injury.

- New team / situation.  Inherent risk there.

- Much worse offensive line.  Some argue the Steelers OL enabled his patient style to payoff.  Risk his efficiency is worse.

- Adam Gase as a HC has low play volume and doesn't throw to running backs very much.  Risk volume / opportunity count is lower than what Bell has historically gotten.

 

He was a top 5 talent and fantasy asset the last time we saw him, but these are a lot of red flags that have pushed him down my board in favor of safer picks.  We can project all we want about all the good things around him, but it's just projection -- i.e. uncertainty, unknowns, and therefore risk.  I don't think he'll bust, personally, but I'd rather not risk it.

Edited by Lord_Varys
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1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

- 19 months will have elapsed between regular season touches.  Risk of slow start and injury.

- New team / situation.  Inherent risk there.

- Much worse offensive line.  Some argue the Steelers OL enabled his patient style to payoff.  Risk his efficiency is worse.

- Adam Gase as a HC has low play volume and doesn't throw to running backs very much.  Risk volume / opportunity count is lower than what Bell has historically gotten.

 

He was a top 5 talent and fantasy asset the last time we saw him, but these are a lot of red flags that have pushed him down my board in favor of safer picks.  We can project all we want about all the good things around him, but it's just projection -- i.e. uncertainty, unknowns, and therefore risk.  I don't think he'll bust, personally, but I'd rather not risk it.

Not any different than projecting about all the bad things around him.

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24 minutes ago, devaster said:

Not any different than projecting about all the bad things around him.

 

The bad things around him are facts.  Gase is always slow.  Jets OL objectively bad.  19 months away from the game, and on a new team, is simply inherent risk.

I was more talking about Panthers who said "Jets have an up and coming qb and decent weapons."   Those might be true but it's grasping at straws.

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52 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

The bad things around him are facts.  Gase is always slow.  Jets OL objectively bad.  19 months away from the game, and on a new team, is simply inherent risk.

I was more talking about Panthers who said "Jets have an up and coming qb and decent weapons."   Those might be true but it's grasping at straws.

I wouldn't call all of those facts at all. Coach is with a new team. New season of OL. The 19 months away? Sure. But is there evidence that supports whether that is good or bad?

The fact we do know is that Bell is a very talented RB.

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Leveon can be a legit RB1 based solely on volume. He's gonna get 300+ carries and 70+ receptions this year if he stays healthy.

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Darnold isn't afraid to pass the ball off quick and he scrambles well. Bell is going to be an RB1 regardless of the O-line based off his rushing volume, end zone looks and dump offs. They didn't pay him all this money to not feed him 😁

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Anyone have any thoughts on Mark Ingram? I haven't done much research but it seems like he's got a solid O Line, the most run heavy team in the NFL and the Ravens cut one of their RBs. Pretty solid RB2 production available in the 4th no?

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7 hours ago, FreakFries said:

Anyone have any thoughts on Mark Ingram? I haven't done much research but it seems like he's got a solid O Line, the most run heavy team in the NFL and the Ravens cut one of their RBs. Pretty solid RB2 production available in the 4th no?

 

I think you are onto something. Could be a saavy pick. Seems like a lock for 1000 yards and 7-8 TDs.

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My very early RB rankings and projections. I know I left out most rookies and later round guys so let me know who you think I should add. Most RBs are projected out to 16 games other than a few with obvious injury concerns (and even then I only put them down to 15 games [other than Todd], I prefer full season projections and then just factor in injury concerns when actually drafting). Let me know where we differ so we can get some productive discussions going. 

A few players that stand out based on their current ADP: high on Leonard Fournette and Devonta Freeman, low on Melvin Gordon

***will likely move Chris Carson down (recent groin injury) and Derrius Guice up depending on how their injuries play out 

 

Player Tier Games Carries Rushings yds Rushing TD Receptions Receiving yds Receiving TD YPC STD Points 0.5 PPR
Ezekiel Elliot 1 16 330 1551 12 83 672 4 4.70 318.3 359.8
Saquon Barkley 1 16 249 1195 11 105 823 5 4.80 297.8 350.3
Alvin Kamara 1 16 201 930 12 103 843 6 4.63 285.3 336.8
Christian McAffrey 1 16 225 1102 10 96 777 6 4.90 283.9 331.9
David Johnson 2 16 269 1182 8 85 833 5 4.39 279.5 322
Le'veon Bell 2 16 274 1288 9 81 688 4 4.70 275.6 316.1
James Connor 2 16 264 1188 12 67 563 2 4.50 259.1 292.6
Todd Gurley 3 13 231 1131 11 53 445 4 4.90 247.6 274.1
Dalvin Cook 3 16 241 1181 8 62 527 4 4.90 242.8 273.8
Leonard Fournette 3 15 301 1324 10 46 377 2 4.40 242.1 265.1
Melvin Gordon 3 15 263 1131 10 54 448 4 4.30 241.9 268.9
Joe Mixon 3 16 262 1257 9 56 425 3 4.80 240.2 268.2
Nick Chubb 4 16 233 1211 10 36 266 3 5.20 225.7 243.7
Damien Williams 4 16 163 831 9 68 639 4 5.10 225 259
Devonta Freeman 4 15 210 1008 10 64 506 2 4.80 223.4 255.4
Marlon Mack 4 16 260 1222 9 28 182 1 4.70 200.4 214.4
Derrick Henry 5 16 294 1264 9 24 149 0 4.30 195.3 207.3
Josh Jacobs 5 16 215 1002 7 42 352 1 4.66 183.4 204.4
Chris Carson 5 16 234 1100 8 26 205 0 4.70 178.5 191.5
Aaron Jones 5 16 171 906 9 34 268 1 5.30 177.4 194.4
Sony Michel 5 16 222 1043 11 15 61 0 4.70 176.4 183.9
Kerryon Johnson 6 16 193 1023 5 48 340 1 5.30 172.3 196.3
Mark Ingram 6 16 225 1014 7 29 218 1 4.51 171.2 185.7
Lamar Miller 6 16 228 935 5 39 316 2 4.10 167.1 186.6
Phillip Lindsay 7 15 162 794 7 34 245 2 4.90 157.9 174.9
Tarik Cohen 7 16 95 449 3 64 582 5 4.73 151.1 183.1
Derrius Guice 7 14 177 814 5 29 267 1 4.60 144.1 158.6

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1st edit: upped Le'veon's carries to better reflect the heavy workload / lower YPC he should receive on the Jets.

Le'veon Bell 2 16 301 1288 9 81 688 4 4.28 275.6 316.1

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1. I respect people that build and create their own charts 

 

2.  Don't get offended when you receive a lot. Of feedback you don't agree with. Cause you will. I've got a lot to say myself. 

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1.  Lev Bell - You've got a ton of usage for a guy in an Adam Gase system.  I believe Bell's touches will max out around 250-275 that's assuming he's even in good enough football shape and can avoid injuries the whole season to keep playing.  People have already mentioned questioning his heart when his team's eliminated as well.  This isn't the Steelers who are playoff bound or at minimum fighting for it week 17 every single season.  This is the trash Jets.

 

2.  You've got every RB catching a million passes.  

 

3.  What did you base this all on?  Did you just take 2018 numbers and apply health and 16 games to their 2019 projections?

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I always appreciate when posters go out on a limp and post rankings and projections.. Having said that.. My initial reaction is the last year 9 total rbs hit 1000 only 5 hit over 1100...the year before that 9 total hit 1000 with 7 over 1100...your projecting 20 rbs to hit 1000 with 13 over 1100.   Mathematically speaking that's just way to many

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1 hour ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

1.  Lev Bell - You've got a ton of usage for a guy in an Adam Gase system.  I believe Bell's touches will max out around 250-275 that's assuming he's even in good enough football shape and can avoid injuries the whole season to keep playing.  People have already mentioned questioning his heart when his team's eliminated as well.  This isn't the Steelers who are playoff bound or at minimum fighting for it week 17 every single season.  This is the trash Jets.

 

2.  You've got every RB catching a million passes.  

 

3.  What did you base this all on?  Did you just take 2018 numbers and apply health and 16 games to their 2019 projections?

 

25 minutes ago, Farfromhome said:

I always appreciate when posters go out on a limp and post rankings and projections.. Having said that.. My initial reaction is the last year 9 total rbs hit 1000 only 5 hit over 1100...the year before that 9 total hit 1000 with 7 over 1100...your projecting 20 rbs to hit 1000 with 13 over 1100.   Mathematically speaking that's just way to many

 

1. I think Lev will get the usage of 300 carries just so Gase can get the most out of his money. Not worried about his football shape, just the Jets O-line (I'm changing his rushing so he's more like 1100-1200 yards and a 3.9 ypc). I think the bad o-line will actually help Bell get more passes so I kept that around his average. 

2. Going back through and checking that out. Thanks for the feedback I'm just trying to get accurate projections :)

3. I looked at their season averages and how those have changed/remained the same from the situations they are in now. Then adjusted for the YPC I thought they would get around, TD regression/progression, increase/decrease in volume, better offense, etc. and looked at the same stuff with receiving. 

 

@Farfromhome- Good looks I'll check it out. Obviously, this is projected that every RB plays mostly 16 games, which never occurs and will increase the total amount of RBs that actually finish as projected.

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Alright updated list and I'll stop blowing up this thread. Took into account everything you guys said and realized I went a little bit yardage and TD crazy on some guys. I still think there will be more passing to RBs this year and a larger amount of high-scoring RBs available compared to previous years. Have at it ;)

Player Tier Games Carries Rushings yds Rushing TD Receptions Receiving yds Receiving TD YPC STD Points
Ezekiel Elliot 1 16 330 1551 12 90 544 4 4.70 305.5
Saquon Barkley 1 16 249 1195 11 105 823 5 4.80 297.8
Alvin Kamara 1 16 201 930 12 103 843 6 4.63 285.3
Christian McAffrey 1 16 225 1102 10 96 777 6 4.90 283.9
David Johnson 2 16 269 1182 8 85 833 4 4.39 273.5
Le'veon Bell 2 16 301 1178 9 81 688 4 3.91 264.6
James Connor 2 16 264 1188 12 67 563 2 4.50 259.1
Todd Gurley 3 13 231 1131 11 53 445 4 4.90 247.6
Dalvin Cook 3 16 241 1181 8 62 527 4 4.90 242.8
Leonard Fournette 3 15 301 1324 10 46 377 2 4.40 242.1
Melvin Gordon 3 15 263 1131 10 54 448 4 4.30 241.9
Joe Mixon 3 16 262 1257 9 56 425 2 4.80 234.2
Damien Williams 4 16 163 831 8 68 639 4 5.10 219
Nick Chubb 4 16 233 1211 10 36 266 1 5.20 213.7
Devonta Freeman 4 15 210 1008 9 59 462 2 4.80 213
Marlon Mack 4 16 260 1222 10 28 182 1 4.70 206.4
Derrick Henry 5 16 294 1264 9 24 149 0 4.30 195.3
Josh Jacobs 5 16 215 935 7 42 352 1 4.35 176.7
Kerryon Johnson 5 16 193 968 6 48 340 1 5.02 172.8
Aaron Jones 5 16 171 906 8 34 268 1 5.30 171.4
Mark Ingram 5 16 196 1014 7 29 218 1 5.17 171.2
Lamar Miller 5 16 227 935 6 39 316 1 4.12 167.1
Sony Michel 6 16 222 947 9 15 61 0 4.27 154.8
Phillip Lindsay 6 15 162 794 7 34 245 1 4.90 151.9
Tarik Cohen 6 16 95 423 2 64 619 5 4.45 146.2
Derrius Guice 6 14 177 814 5 29 267 1 4.60 144.1
Chris Carson 6 16 166 813 6 26 205 0 4.90 137.8
Edited by 30Burger

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21 minutes ago, 30Burger said:

Alright updated list and I'll stop blowing up this thread. Took into account everything you guys said and realized I went a little bit yardage and TD crazy on some guys. I still think there will be more passing to RBs this year and a larger amount of high-scoring RBs available compared to previous years. Have at it ;)

Player Tier Games Carries Rushings yds Rushing TD Receptions Receiving yds Receiving TD YPC STD Points
Ezekiel Elliot 1 16 330 1551 12 90 544 4 4.70 305.5
Saquon Barkley 1 16 249 1195 11 105 823 5 4.80 297.8
Alvin Kamara 1 16 201 930 12 103 843 6 4.63 285.3
Christian McAffrey 1 16 225 1102 10 96 777 6 4.90 283.9
David Johnson 2 16 269 1182 8 85 833 4 4.39 273.5
Le'veon Bell 2 16 301 1178 9 81 688 4 3.91 264.6
James Connor 2 16 264 1188 12 67 563 2 4.50 259.1
Todd Gurley 3 13 231 1131 11 53 445 4 4.90 247.6
Dalvin Cook 3 16 241 1181 8 62 527 4 4.90 242.8
Leonard Fournette 3 15 301 1324 10 46 377 2 4.40 242.1
Melvin Gordon 3 15 263 1131 10 54 448 4 4.30 241.9
Joe Mixon 3 16 262 1257 9 56 425 2 4.80 234.2
Damien Williams 4 16 163 831 8 68 639 4 5.10 219
Nick Chubb 4 16 233 1211 10 36 266 1 5.20 213.7
Devonta Freeman 4 15 210 1008 9 59 462 2 4.80 213
Marlon Mack 4 16 260 1222 10 28 182 1 4.70 206.4
Derrick Henry 5 16 294 1264 9 24 149 0 4.30 195.3
Josh Jacobs 5 16 215 935 7 42 352 1 4.35 176.7
Kerryon Johnson 5 16 193 968 6 48 340 1 5.02 172.8
Aaron Jones 5 16 171 906 8 34 268 1 5.30 171.4
Mark Ingram 5 16 196 1014 7 29 218 1 5.17 171.2
Lamar Miller 5 16 227 935 6 39 316 1 4.12 167.1
Sony Michel 6 16 222 947 9 15 61 0 4.27 154.8
Phillip Lindsay 6 15 162 794 7 34 245 1 4.90 151.9
Tarik Cohen 6 16 95 423 2 64 619 5 4.45 146.2
Derrius Guice 6 14 177 814 5 29 267 1 4.60 144.1
Chris Carson 6 16 166 813 6 26 205 0 4.90 137.8

Appreciate the work, but some of these reception projections are still wonky. Damien Williams is going to catch as many passes as Lindsay and Aaron Jones combined?!

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@ajs723

Aaron Jones averaged 3.1 receptions when he was the main ball carrier weeks 8-14 (projected for 49.6 receptions / 16 games). Phillip Lindsay had 35 receptions in 15 games last year. I think both are going to be more in an RRBC than people expect. Lindsay will still be the main pass-catching back so I kept him around the same receptions but lowered his carries. I think Jamal Williams and Aaron Jones will both get equal looks and thus hurt each other's value barring injury (but he is still really efficient). 

 

Damien Williams averaged 4.3 receptions per game weeks 13-20 when he was the only RB (68 receptions / 16 game pace). That's right where I have him at in the rankings. 

Edited by 30Burger

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This all seems like a lot of work for little gain. I just rank my players, not sure what specific projections do for you.

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3 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

This all seems like a lot of work for little gain. I just rank my players, not sure what specific projections do for you.

Cause I'm bored as shiiiit, love fantasy football and sit on a computer at work all day lol. It helps me see what different draft combinations would be better based off my point projections. 

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1 hour ago, 30Burger said:

@ajs723

Aaron Jones averaged 3.1 receptions when he was the main ball carrier weeks 8-14 (projected for 49.6 receptions / 16 games). Phillip Lindsay had 35 receptions in 15 games last year. I think both are going to be more in an RRBC than people expect. Lindsay will still be the main pass-catching back so I kept him around the same receptions but lowered his carries. I think Jamal Williams and Aaron Jones will both get equal looks and thus hurt each other's value barring injury (but he is still really efficient). 

 

Damien Williams averaged 4.3 receptions per game weeks 13-20 when he was the only RB (68 receptions / 16 game pace). That's right where I have him at in the rankings. 

Hmm... Lindsay and Jones are going to be more in RBBCs than people expect, despite having almost the exact same casts around them. Dexter Williams is the only new RB on either team, and he's not much of a pass catcher. 

Meanwhile, KC added Carlos Hyde (a proven NFL workhorse), Darwin Thompson (a guy who got Tarik Cohen comps before the draft), and James Williams (the guy most said was the best pass catching back in this class). 

But yeah, it's Jones and Lindsay who face more competition for targets this year. *Head Explodes*

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