Boudewijn

(Way Too) Early RB Rankings 2019

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12 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Hmm... Lindsay and Jones are going to be more in RBBCs than people expect, despite having almost the exact same casts around them. Dexter Williams is the only new RB on either team, and he's not much of a pass catcher. 

Meanwhile, KC added Carlos Hyde (a proven NFL workhorse), Darwin Thompson (a guy who got Tarik Cohen comps before the draft), and James Williams (the guy most said was the best pass catching back in this class). 

But yeah, it's Jones and Lindsay who face more competition for targets this year. *Head Explodes*

 

 

here's a tweet showing Andy Reid's RB1 averages since 2004.

Andy Reid RB1 per game basis: 15.1 rushes, 70.3 rushing yards, 0.5 rushing TD, 4.2 receptions, 36.5 receiving yards, 0.3 receiving TD

My Damien Williams per game projection: 10.2 rushes, 51.9 rushing yards, 0.56 rushing TD, 4.25 receptions, 39.9 receiving yards, 0.25 receiving TD

So i actually did take into account Carlos Hyde and took away some carries and rushing yards from Reid's average. I agree that there are a lot of backs they brought in but until we hear any news or scouting reports that say Williams is struggling I'm sticking with him as the main RB1 and giving him the TDs. 

 

As for Lindsay and Royce, I don't think a 190 pound running back will be able to carry a full season workload + Freeman was dealing with an ankle injury throughout the mid season. I expect the splits to be more even for 2019. 

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1 hour ago, 30Burger said:

 

 

here's a tweet showing Andy Reid's RB1 averages since 2004.

Andy Reid RB1 per game basis: 15.1 rushes, 70.3 rushing yards, 0.5 rushing TD, 4.2 receptions, 36.5 receiving yards, 0.3 receiving TD

My Damien Williams per game projection: 10.2 rushes, 51.9 rushing yards, 0.56 rushing TD, 4.25 receptions, 39.9 receiving yards, 0.25 receiving TD

So i actually did take into account Carlos Hyde and took away some carries and rushing yards from Reid's average. I agree that there are a lot of backs they brought in but until we hear any news or scouting reports that say Williams is struggling I'm sticking with him as the main RB1 and giving him the TDs. 

 

As for Lindsay and Royce, I don't think a 190 pound running back will be able to carry a full season workload + Freeman was dealing with an ankle injury throughout the mid season. I expect the splits to be more even for 2019. 

Westbrook, McCoy, and Charles were sliiiiiightly better at football than Williams. Ware is the only player even in the neighborhood of Williams, and he was only getting 2.4 receptions on 3 targets per game. 

I think Williams finishes the season with something like 650 rushing yards, 40 receptions, 250 receiving yards, and 5-6 total TDs. Roughly back end RB2 production. 

It seems like literally everyone is down on Lindsay. If everyone is zigging, I'm going to zag. He consistently outplayed Freeman last year, and is the way better receiving back. 

 

Break down for targets and carries last year. 

Lindsay 192 carries, 47 targets. 

Freeman 130 carries, 20 targets.

Booker 34 carries, 51 targets. 

 

This year it probably looks something like:

Lindsay 160 carries, 75 targets. 

Freeman 160 carries 25 targets. 

Booker 30 carries, 30 targets. 

 

Lindsay is still the guy I want in that backfield.  

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@ajs723

Obviously those 3 guys are better RBs than Williams, but Reid has shown through all his years that he prefers to have 1 main RB (and whoever that RB is SCORES POINTS). Even with how average Ware is he still received 214 carries and 42 targets as the main RB in 2016. 

In 2018, with a better RB/QB combo in Hunt/Mahomes and some other great offensive pieces, Hunt was on pace for 263 carries and 50.88 targets (he had 63 targets in 2017). Re-looking at my projections, You were right, I definitely had Williams reception count, receiving TDs and yardage waaay too high. But I do think he will be targeted slightly more than both Ware and Hunt have been in previous seasons based off his usage at the end of last year (think ~70 targets) and not get beat out by Hyde or others for the main carries (though they will still take SOME away). 

Readjusted my rankings and lowered D. Williams to be projected at: 163 carries, 831 rushing yards / 6 TD, 53 receptions, 474 receiving yards / 4 TDs. In standard scoring this places him as my RB#17, below Marlon Mack + Derrick Henry but above Josh Jacobs + Kerryon Johnson. 

So good looks on the back end RB2 projection, I'm just a little bit higher on Williams but still think he's being over drafted. 

 

As for Lindsay, I don't think they are going to drop Booker as hard as you think but it's not a big deal. I don't want any part of that backfield/RRBC :)

 

Thanks for the insight! 

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8 hours ago, ajs723 said:

It seems like literally everyone is down on Lindsay. If everyone is zigging, I'm going to zag. He consistently outplayed Freeman last year, and is the way better receiving back. 

 

Break down for targets and carries last year. 

Lindsay 192 carries, 47 targets. 

Freeman 130 carries, 20 targets.

Booker 34 carries, 51 targets. 

 

This year it probably looks something like:

Lindsay 160 carries, 75 targets. 

Freeman 160 carries 25 targets. 

Booker 30 carries, 30 targets. 

 

Lindsay is still the guy I want in that backfield.  

..but you only have to pay an 8th round pricetag for Freeman instead of a 4th round pricetag for Lindsay.

 

If you truly believe your projections you should be all over Royce Freeman's value.

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831 yards on 160 carries seems high to me. 

 

This guy never cracked 4 YPC before last season where he was in arguably one of most dynamic offenses I've ever watched. 

 

I bet he drops much closer to 4 YPC this year and that'll make it easier for Hyde to supplant him. 

 

And why does everyone keep talking like Hyde can't catch a pass? 

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On 5/5/2019 at 1:44 PM, Panthers8912 said:

Wait, did leveon die? He’s not a consensus top 5? 

 

In my book, it's between Le'Veon and Gordon for that #5 spot. 

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2 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

..but you only have to pay an 8th round pricetag for Freeman instead of a 4th round pricetag for Lindsay.

 

If you truly believe your projections you should be all over Royce Freeman's value.

Fair. Royce is good value. I actually think both guys are.

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20 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

And why does everyone keep talking like Hyde can't catch a pass? 

He had one season with 59 catches two years ago, and it took him 88 targets to get that.  He led the league in drops that year, and his YPR was a miserable 5.9 yards.  He had 10 receptions TOTAL last season.

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On 5/6/2019 at 6:30 AM, Lord_Varys said:

 

- 19 months will have elapsed between regular season touches.  Risk of slow start and injury.  <--fresh legs

- New team / situation.  Inherent risk there. <--new team paid top dollar for him and is planning to maximize their investment

- Much worse offensive line.  Some argue the Steelers OL enabled his patient style to payoff.  Risk his efficiency is worse

^^^ How is it "much worse"? They picked up G Kelechi Osemele in free agency and move up in round three to draft OT Chuma Edoga   .

- Adam Gase as a HC has low play volume and doesn't throw to running backs very much.  Risk volume / opportunity count is lower than what Bell has historically gotten^ .

^^^  Gase, having clearly realized the contract handed out to Bell, is not just going to run his normal offense involving cheap RBs. He's talked to Bell about what he can do in the passing game as well looking to use him every way possible.

He was a top 5 talent and fantasy asset the last time we saw him, but these are a lot of red flags that have pushed him down my board in favor of safer picks.  We can project all we want about all the good things around him, but it's just projection -- i.e. uncertainty, unknowns, and therefore risk.  I don't think he'll bust, personally, but I'd rather not risk it. <-- The "risk" with Bell is so totally overblown it's not even funny.

3

 

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1 minute ago, JoeJoe88 said:

He had one season with 59 catches two years ago, and it took him 88 targets to get that.  He led the league in drops that year, and his YPR was a miserable 5.9 yards.  He had 10 receptions TOTAL last season.

Who were his QBs that season?

And last year was a lost season for him, much like all of Williams time with the Phins. Williams is proof that Reid elevates RBs in his system, why not draft the RB that has won starting gigs with coaches that didn't draft/acquire him vs the one who could only start when his competition wasn't playing.

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On 5/6/2019 at 10:04 AM, timexsocialclub said:

Most likely an RB2, with good chance of being RB3. Long shot at RB1.

 

I'd say a virtual lock as RB1 with an ever-so-slight risk of being a RB2.

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41 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

He had one season with 59 catches two years ago, and it took him 88 targets to get that.  He led the league in drops that year, and his YPR was a miserable 5.9 yards.  He had 10 receptions TOTAL last season.

 

CJB and Hoyer's 50% completion % didn't do any pass catchers any favors.  They had 2 moves that year.  Throw inaccurately downfield to Goodwin or dump off inaccurately to Hyde.  That 49ers team was a trash heap and everyone looked horrible.  He was the only one looking semi OK on offense before Jimmy came into town and neglected Hyde which hurt his reception %.  And he didn't lead the league in dropped passes.  That's fake news.  He had several, but he def did not lead the league.

 

Browns had like 4 RBs last season including one that specialized in only catching passes.  There was a log jam there, he was brought in purely to run between the tackles.  The Jags situation was weird to me.  He wasn't a fit.  

 

Bottom line, I guess we'll see.  When D Williams gets overtaken by Hyde I'll quote someone, say I told you so, get my comment deleted and banned for a weekend.  Just be ready in that first 2 hours after I post it before it's gone forever and all you have is a notification that leads to nowhere.

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17 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

CJB and Hoyer's 50% completion % didn't do any pass catchers any favors.  They had 2 moves that year.  Throw inaccurately downfield to Goodwin or dump off inaccurately to Hyde.  That 49ers team was a trash heap and everyone looked horrible.  He was the only one looking semi OK on offense before Jimmy came into town and neglected Hyde which hurt his reception %.  And he didn't lead the league in dropped passes.  That's fake news.  He had several, but he def did not lead the league.

 

Browns had like 4 RBs last season including one that specialized in only catching passes.  There was a log jam there, he was brought in purely to run between the tackles.  The Jags situation was weird to me.  He wasn't a fit.  

 

Bottom line, I guess we'll see.  When D Williams gets overtaken by Hyde I'll quote someone, say I told you so, get my comment deleted and banned for a weekend.  Just be ready in that first 2 hours after I post it before it's gone forever and all you have is a notification that leads to nowhere.

In, bold, so true, 

lmao, I got banned for a week recently for posting avengers end game spoilers in the draft thread

 

and I got banned two weeks last season for voicing my opinion on James conner

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53 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

And he didn't lead the league in dropped passes.  That's fake news.  He had several, but he def did not lead the league.

https://www.sacbee.com/sports/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/article192761834.html

 

"

The 49ers’ receiving leader in terms of catches was … Carlos Hyde?

Yes, the team’s starting tailback and pending free agent set a career record with 59 grabs. To put that in perspective, he had 34 catches in four years at Ohio State. Kyle Shanahan’s top running back a year ago, Devonta Freeman, had 54 catches for a Super Bowl-bound Atlanta Falcons squad.

Ah, but the pass-catching stats weren’t all good for Hyde. According to Pro Football Focus, he led the league with nine drops."

 

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I can't wait until James Williams leads the Chiefs backfield after week 5 and everyone is wrong.

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17 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

https://www.sacbee.com/sports/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/article192761834.html

 

"

The 49ers’ receiving leader in terms of catches was … Carlos Hyde?

Yes, the team’s starting tailback and pending free agent set a career record with 59 grabs. To put that in perspective, he had 34 catches in four years at Ohio State. Kyle Shanahan’s top running back a year ago, Devonta Freeman, had 54 catches for a Super Bowl-bound Atlanta Falcons squad.

Ah, but the pass-catching stats weren’t all good for Hyde. According to Pro Football Focus, he led the league with nine drops."

 

Once again fake news.  Search hard enough you can find a website that you can quote, even if it's non-factual.

 

Everything I've read everywhere else shows he had 6 dropped passes in 2017.  

 

Find me one of those websites that show Dropped passes leaders in 2017 in a chart form where it shows the players name and number and I'll believe you.

 

I've read 3 things that all said he had 6 dropped passes though, so that's what I believe.  And 6 was not the most dropped passes in the NFL in 2017.

Edited by Dreams And Dwightmares

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Weird people care about Royce. Assuming they have the 2o18 version of Fantasy mags.

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1 hour ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

I've read 3 things that all said he had 6 dropped passes though, so that's what I believe.  And 6 was not the most dropped passes in the NFL in 2017.

Yeah I'm seeing 8 from Marquise Lee.

 

6 from Hyde, tied for 5th most

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  1. 1. Saquan Barkley
  2. 2. Christian McCaffery
  3. 3. Zeke Elliot
  4. 4. Alvin Kamara
  5. 5. Le'Veon Bell
  6. 6. Melvin Gordon
  7. 7. David Johnson
  8. 8. Todd Gurley
  9. 9. James Conner
  10. 10. Joe Mixon

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15 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

Weird people care about Royce. Assuming they have the 2o18 version of Fantasy mags.

 

Not sure how much you value the analytical side of most arguments against lindsay but I'll share the argument against lindsay I've read (not agreed with)

Apparently when Lindsay ran the ball his offensive line was the 3rd best blocking unit in football with 105.7 run blocking efficiency (not sure how they stat that but they do). Lindsay only created 0.98 yards per carry so it's it suggests that of his 192 Carries for 1037 yards he only earned 192 yards while the line paved the way for the other 800 yards.

I think this is a bad argument tho but I guess I see the merits. 

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I'm thinking I need to lower David Johnson a little after learning about how the Cards plan to use a college spread system with Rosen primarily in shotgun. The running game sounds like an afterthought in their system. 

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10 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Not sure how much you value the analytical side of most arguments against lindsay but I'll share the argument against lindsay I've read (not agreed with)

Apparently when Lindsay ran the ball his offensive line was the 3rd best blocking unit in football with 105.7 run blocking efficiency (not sure how they stat that but they do). Lindsay only created 0.98 yards per carry so it's it suggests that of his 192 Carries for 1037 yards he only earned 192 yards while the line paved the way for the other 800 yards.

I think this is a bad argument tho but I guess I see the merits. 

 

Lindsay took advantage of those blocks with his speed in order to pick up big yards.

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6 hours ago, Jags02 said:

I'm thinking I need to lower David Johnson a little after learning about how the Cards plan to use a college spread system with Rosen primarily in shotgun. The running game sounds like an afterthought in their system. 

 

Interesting strategy. 😉

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13 minutes ago, bigmarc27 said:

 

Interesting strategy. 😉

"And Rosen lines up several thousand miles behind the line of scrimmage, all the way in Miami. What do you think of this, Tony?"

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