BostonCajun

Aaron Nola 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

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The first month was a disaster, and we all know that. But if we count his last April start thru today, he has posted a 2.92 era, 1.18 whip, and 10.09 k/9. Pretty darn good. And if we go from mid-June to today (he did have a couple of blow-ups in early June), he has been studly...2.09 era, 0.98 whip, 10.19 k/9. 

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Start or bench Nola on Tuesday vs the Red Sox at Fenway?  Nola has turned his season around the past two months, but this is an extreme degree of difficulty matchup.  I know Boston has been probably the most underachieving team in baseball, but that's been almost totally due to their pitching, not their offense.  The Red Sox offense has been even better this year (5.7 runs per game) than last year (5.4 runs per game), and at Fenway that number jumps to 5.97 runs per game.  Leaning towards benching.

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Read the last two pages. He’s regained confidence as a stud and you don’t sit those guys. I’d start him in coors against the Red Sox on a 95 degree day. 

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Up to #71 overall on the Yahoo player rater in 5x5 roto. The #17 SP too. Hell of a turnaround after such a dismal start.

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On 8/26/2019 at 12:24 PM, Dislimb said:

Up to #71 overall on the Yahoo player rater in 5x5 roto. The #17 SP too. Hell of a turnaround after such a dismal start.

 

He's certainly been way better since mid-June, but the overall numbers are still very disappointing for a guy who was drafted in the 3rd round on average.  It's really not possible for an early round pick to make up for two and a half months to start the year that were that poor. 

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3 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

He's certainly been way better since mid-June, but the overall numbers are still very disappointing for a guy who was drafted in the 3rd round on average.  It's really not possible for an early round pick to make up for two and a half months to start the year that were that poor. 

Try telling that to the folks in the Jose Ramirez thread.

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8 hours ago, Dislimb said:

Try telling that to the folks in the Jose Ramirez thread.

 

J-Ram's overall numbers before he got hurt certainly didn't live up to his first round ADP either.

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15 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

He's certainly been way better since mid-June, but the overall numbers are still very disappointing for a guy who was drafted in the 3rd round on average.  It's really not possible for an early round pick to make up for two and a half months to start the year that were that poor. 

OMG there's 17 pages of this exact comment. We get it.

He's been great since the ASB and had a badly timed poor start last night. Hopefully he rebounds for those whose playoffs begin next week.

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On 9/5/2019 at 10:40 AM, TribeFoo said:

OMG there's 17 pages of this exact comment. We get it.

He's been great since the ASB and had a badly timed poor start last night. Hopefully he rebounds for those whose playoffs begin next week.

Well, there's obviously people that disagree with me, which is why there's been a discussion.  I said at the beginning of the year that I thought Nola was overvalued given his 3rd round ADP coming off of last year's fortunate .251 BAPIP.  As I said at the beginning of the year, I thought he would regress to the 3.30-3.50 ERA and 1.15-1.20 WHIP range.  Obviously I wasn't right about Nola either and he's regressed a lot more than that.  The difference between Nola and Gerrit Cole who had the same ADP has been staggering

Edited by FootballFan101

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On 6/4/2019 at 12:31 AM, jackg1162 said:

This guy has been a real piece of s--- this year.

 

Very well put. 

As others said at the beginning of the thread, 2018 will almost certainly go down as his career-best season.  I was probably a little more pessimistic about Nola than most people, as I thought he would regress most of the way to his 2017 level (I was predicting a 3.3-3.5 ERA and a 1.15-1.2 WHIP) rather than split the difference between 2017 and 2018.  However, I never envisioned Nola would be so significantly worse than his 2017 level and his career averages.  After a horrible first two and a half months, Nola did get it together from mid-June to end of August, then totally collapsed in September.    

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He was absolutely robbed tonight. He struck out Kendrick looking. Ump misses the call, they go to Hughes out of the pen and he gives up a grand slam. He should’ve finished with 2 earned and 10 ks.

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What a weird season. April and Sep had similar numbers. Bookended 3 strong months and 1 ok month.

Stuff is still there, but command was off for whatever reason.

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