urban2014

T.Y. Hilton 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

14 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

I mostly just expect Mahommes not to finish QB1 and someone in the next group has to. I have Mahomes third behind Luck and Deshaun.

 

Ok so you think mahomes, Ryan, and big Ben will all regress some but luck wont. Even though he just had his second best season of his Career? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Ok so you think mahomes, Ryan, and big Ben will all regress some but luck wont. Even though he just had his second best season of his Career? 

 

If that is what needs to happen for Luck to be QB1, sure. 

 

He is the 2nd QB off the board. I am expecting him to outperform his ADP by one whole spot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

If that is what needs to happen for Luck to be QB1, sure. 

 

He is the 2nd QB off the board. I am expecting him to outperform his ADP by one whole spot.

 

Ok then i just thought maybe you had some good reasoning to why he might finish as qb1. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Ok so you think mahomes, Ryan, and big Ben will all regress some but luck wont. Even though he just had his second best season of his Career? 

I think "second best" is misleading and not really relevant. This is the first year he had a truly good OL and he was out some or all of several other seasons. Sure it's unrealistic to expect another 39+ TDs simply because even in this day and age it's all but unheard of, even among top QBs, but a comparable season or even a slight bit better (in some ways if not TDs) is a reasonable expectation.

Do I expect that? No. :)  But it's reasonable. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Ok then i just thought maybe you had some good reasoning to why he might finish as qb1. 

I suspect you know most if not all of the reasons. He was almost there last year and the only significant change on the team is more and better receiving options. The only downside I see is another injury and they don't have a super easy schedule this year. 

Edited by bomont

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, bomont said:

I think "second best" is misleading and not really relevant. This is the first year he had a truly good OL and he was out some or all of several other seasons. Sure it's unrealistic to expect another 39+ TDs simply because even in this day and age it's all but unheard of, even among top QBs, but a comparable season or even a slight bit better (in some ways if not TDs) is a reasonable expectation.

Do I expect that? No. :)  But it's reasonable. 

 

 

I would say this being his second best season is extremely relevant. More often than not after a big season a guy will revert back to his average. There are exceptions to this. Drew brees went on that three year 5000 yard streak and peyton mannings Broncos years were all up from his average until he fell apart. And luck could be one of those guys that is an exception. Hes amaizing so he could throw for 5000 and 50 this year it wouldnt surprise me I just thought maybe dmb mighta knew something I didnt that would change my mind 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

I would say this being his second best season is extremely relevant. More often than not after a big season a guy will revert back to his average. 

I agree, in general.  My point though with Luck is we don't really know what "his average" is. Here are his career TDs, excluding the 2 years he was seriously injured:  23,23,40,31,39.  He's kind all over. And really if anything, you could point to 39+ two out of his last 3 years and call that his "average," since his first two years were just that (and again, his OL blew).

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, bomont said:

I agree, in general.  My point though with Luck is we don't really know what "his average" is. Here are his career TDs, excluding the 2 years he was seriously injured:  23,23,40,31,39.  He's kind all over. And really if anything, you could point to 39+ two out of his last 3 years and call that his "average," since his first two years were just that (and again, his OL blew).

 

Fair enough.  But i would say 5 years of data is plenty of data. Even if you only took his last 3 year average with the 40, 31 and 39 td seasons bes still due for a small regression.

Either way if luck throws for 40 tds or 29tds i think t.y. is only good for 5 to 7. That's been his M.O. for too long for me to expect more.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:


Fair enough.  But i would say 5 years of data is plenty of data.

Normally, yeah. In this case? Nah.

 

Quote

Even if you only took his last 3 year average with the 40, 31 and 39 td seasons bes still due for a small regression.

That's as reasonable as anything.  Anyway back to Hilton :)

 

Quote

Either way if luck throws for 40 tds or 29tds i think t.y. is only good for 5 to 7. That's been his M.O. for too long for me to expect more.

Agree.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Fair enough.  But i would say 5 years of data is plenty of data. Even if you only took his last 3 year average with the 40, 31 and 39 td seasons bes still due for a small regression.

Either way if luck throws for 40 tds or 29tds i think t.y. is only good for 5 to 7. That's been his M.O. for too long for me to expect more.

 

You are looking at it in too black and white terms IMO. Luck has had a weird career. He's healthy for a 2nd year in a row and I expect his best yet. Sorry if that isn't enough for you. I dont put much effort into fantasy QBs. i always draft one last.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/18/2019 at 2:08 PM, Ryansm11 said:

Colts had a tough schedule? When? Not last year. 

 

perhaps I am wrong there, but I do recall every time I should check TY Hiltons yahoo projections it was always against teams highlighted in  red. lol.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/18/2019 at 7:36 PM, Stonej14 said:

 

I would say this being his second best season is extremely relevant. More often than not after a big season a guy will revert back to his average. There are exceptions to this. Drew brees went on that three year 5000 yard streak and peyton mannings Broncos years were all up from his average until he fell apart. And luck could be one of those guys that is an exception. Hes amaizing so he could throw for 5000 and 50 this year it wouldnt surprise me I just thought maybe dmb mighta knew something I didnt that would change my mind 

 

 

You cant just take Lucks averages at face value. He has been hurt so much.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, RUGOO said:

 

perhaps I am wrong there, but I do recall every time I should check TY Hiltons yahoo projections it was always against teams highlighted in  red. lol.  

 

That would just be WR fantasy points against whatever defense. Not indicitive of the Colts schedule as a whole.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

You cant just take Lucks averages at face value. He has been hurt so much.

Hes only been hurt twice. He had 5 full healthy seasons to go off.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

Hes only been hurt twice. He had 5 full healthy seasons to go off.

 

His last 3 full seasons have been really good. He has had a terrible OLine most of his time there. Healthy Andrew Luck is really good at football. You just seem to dislike him for whatever reason

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

His last 3 full seasons have been really good. He has had a terrible OLine most of his time there. Healthy Andrew Luck is really good at football. You just seem to dislike him for whatever reason

 

I dont dislike him at all. I just believe he will have a small (a very small) regression based on his touchdown percentage and the fact that he just had arguably his best season of his career and players tend to regress a little after such good seasons. Pretty logical reasons i thought. It's not like I said he was going to be qb15.

Your argument seems to be "Andrew luck is good at football" and I'm not disagreeing I just think he will underperform his ADP by a little and you think he outperforms it by a little. No big deal.. agree to disagree.

But all this relates back to TY and i believe whoever is right about luck doesnt really change the outcome to t.y.i think he will get his 6 or 7 tds and his 85 catches for 1300 to 1400 yards and be a steal at his current ADP 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

i think he will get his 6 or 7 tds and his 85 catches for 1300 to 1400 yards and be a steal at his current ADP 

I agree except for being a steal. He's ranked right about where he should be and about where those stats would put him (those stats would put him a little higher, but not much).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Saucy said:

 

Um. What

Luck will lead the league in TDs this year.

Please let it die so we can scoop him up cheap.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, fruitjacket said:

Luck will lead the league in TDs this year.

Please let it die so we can scoop him up cheap.

Dudes career high in tds is like 6. Luck could lead the league again and he'd only catch half dozen of them. Hilton's success is tied directly to Luck, and guess whos got a big cloud surrounding his availability? I'll gladly let someone else scoop this guy early

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My only worry with him is Luck’s health.  I really hope he’s good, just for the sake of the sport.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let's look at some stats for T.Y Hilton.  I'm leaving out 2017 as Luck was gone the entire year and I feel like it is quite pointless to include it for that reason. 2013 was his coming out party so let's look at 2014. 2015. 2016. and 2018.

2014 - T.Y Hilton finished 10th overall. 

2015 - T.Y Hilton finished 21st overall

2016 - T.Y Hilton finished 5th overall

2018 - T.Y Hilton finished 11th overall

This leaves 2015 as the outlier. However, more or less you can expect T.Y to finish as a mid to low end WR1. However, there's a few more things to consider. The first is the offensive line is actually good. 2014 and 2015 the Colts had lines that were mediocre. I would say their performance was exaggerated in the negative and they ranked somewhere in the middle of the league. However, the 2016 line was bad and towards the bottom of the league. Last year was the only year the line did good. Now, you may say "They had a good line yet Hilton's 2018 finish doesn't reflect that". However, you also have to consider he missed 2 games, left another game very early (may have been multiple), and played a few games clearly injured and mostly as a decoy. If he was healthy the entire season (which he almost always is) he would have finished in the 4-7 range. 

Another thing to consider is that Luck will only get better with his shoulder recovery. They clearly eased him into it last year and they should let him loose this year.

So what you have in Hilton is a guy that has a floor as a low end WR1 but he is also in the best situation of his career and if he is healthy he should be looking to take a jump into the WR4-8 range. He is currently going as a low end WR1 which historically he is going closer to his floor than his ceiling. He is a great target if you pick 1-3 and guys like JuJu and Evans are gone.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.