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T.Y. Hilton 2019 Outlook

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He's a safe pick but last year's numbers are his ceiling.  During most of his career, the Colts were almost continuously in catch-up mode.  Now that they have a good OL (i.e. good running game) and solid defense, they won't be facing so many prevent defenses.

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On 8/13/2019 at 1:47 AM, Gohawks said:

Let's look at some stats for T.Y Hilton.  I'm leaving out 2017 as Luck was gone the entire year and I feel like it is quite pointless to include it for that reason. 2013 was his coming out party so let's look at 2014. 2015. 2016. and 2018.

2014 - T.Y Hilton finished 10th overall. 

2015 - T.Y Hilton finished 21st overall

2016 - T.Y Hilton finished 5th overall

2018 - T.Y Hilton finished 11th overall

This leaves 2015 as the outlier. However, more or less you can expect T.Y to finish as a mid to low end WR1. However, there's a few more things to consider. The first is the offensive line is actually good. 2014 and 2015 the Colts had lines that were mediocre. I would say their performance was exaggerated in the negative and they ranked somewhere in the middle of the league. However, the 2016 line was bad and towards the bottom of the league. Last year was the only year the line did good. Now, you may say "They had a good line yet Hilton's 2018 finish doesn't reflect that". However, you also have to consider he missed 2 games, left another game very early (may have been multiple), and played a few games clearly injured and mostly as a decoy. If he was healthy the entire season (which he almost always is) he would have finished in the 4-7 range. 

Another thing to consider is that Luck will only get better with his shoulder recovery. They clearly eased him into it last year and they should let him loose this year.

So what you have in Hilton is a guy that has a floor as a low end WR1 but he is also in the best situation of his career and if he is healthy he should be looking to take a jump into the WR4-8 range. He is currently going as a low end WR1 which historically he is going closer to his floor than his ceiling. He is a great target if you pick 1-3 and guys like JuJu and Evans are gone.

 

 

I've probably been the biggest Hilton fan and defender on these boards for the past 4 years.  That being said, I'm fading him heavily this year.  

He has never had consecutive WR1 PPG seasons, and is approaching his age-30 season.  

His best year (2016 where he led the NFL in receiving yards), he was the beneficiary of literally every other main receiving option on that team being hurt for a significant period of time.  Indy has a lot of options (Funchess, Hines, Campbell, Ebron, Doyle, etc.) this year to take away targets from him, and he's never been a big TD guy. 

I fully expect a high-end WR2 season from Hilton as his ceiling, with the likelihood that he finishes as a low-end WR2.  Not enough production for his current ADP IMO.  I would take Tyler Lockett over him pretty easily. 

 

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On 8/13/2019 at 1:47 AM, Gohawks said:

Let's look at some stats for T.Y Hilton.  I'm leaving out 2017 as Luck was gone the entire year and I feel like it is quite pointless to include it for that reason.


Ummm... and there's no concern about Luck missing games this year with this mysterious leg injury?? 

I don't think you can draft Hilton without seriously considering his 2017 season. He's a WR0 without Luck.
Brissett immediately makes him unstartable and a wasted early round pick. 

 

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22 minutes ago, AirForceOne said:


Ummm... and there's no concern about Luck missing games this year with this mysterious leg injury?? 

I don't think you can draft Hilton without seriously considering his 2017 season. He's a WR0 without Luck.
Brissett immediately makes him unstartable and a wasted early round pick. 

 

I disagree about Brissett.  He was added to the team right before the start of that season and had no time at all to learn the playbook and work with the WR.

It's certainly a downgrade for Hilton but to call him un-startable is an overreaction.  imo

Edit...I double checked the trade date an it was Sept. 2.   So 8 days before he saw his first action.   And 15 days before his first start.

Edited by K197040
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21 minutes ago, K197040 said:

I disagree about Brissett.  He was added to the team right before the start of that season and had no time at all to learn the playbook and work with the WR.It's certainly a downgrade for Hilton but to call him un-startable is an overreaction.  imo

Edit...I double checked the trade date an it was Sept. 2.   So 8 days before he saw his first action.   And 15 days before his first start.


How about Week 13 (fantasy playoffs for many) when Brissett targeted Hilton 4 times for a grand total of 2 catches for 20 yards?
Shouldn't he have known the playbook by then? Fact is, he's not Luck.

Granted Hilton DID have a few huge weeks that season, but at that point most owners had been burned repeatedly and left him on the bench. 
Which is really the worst-case situation you can have.  

There's plenty of uncertainty surrounding Luck's status, whether he'll miss any/some/all of the season, but I don't think you can discount his impact on whether Hilton is a WR1 or WR5 this season.
 

Edited by AirForceOne

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46 minutes ago, AirForceOne said:


Ummm... and there's no concern about Luck missing games this year with this mysterious leg injury?? 

I don't think you can draft Hilton without seriously considering his 2017 season. He's a WR0 without Luck.
Brissett immediately makes him unstartable and a wasted early round pick. 

 

I posted that right before the news came out. Until we hear definitive news on Luck Hilton is a DND.

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51 minutes ago, AirForceOne said:


How about Week 13 (fantasy playoffs for many) when Brissett targeted Hilton 4 times for a grand total of 2 catches for 20 yards?
Shouldn't he have known the playbook by then? Fact is, he's not Luck.

Granted Hilton DID have a few huge weeks that season, but at that point most owners had been burned repeatedly and left him on the bench. 
Which is really the worst-case situation you can have.  

There's plenty of uncertainty surrounding Luck's status, whether he'll miss any/some/all of the season, but I don't think you can discount his impact on whether Hilton is a WR1 or WR5 this season.
 

No argument about the positive impact Luck has on Hilton.  But I don't think you can look at his season with Brisset and call him unstartable.   Sure you're probably not getting a WR1 at the end of the year but he's also certainly not  a WR5.  That's laughable.

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21 minutes ago, K197040 said:

No argument about the positive impact Luck has on Hilton.  But I don't think you can look at his season with Brisset and call him unstartable.   Sure you're probably not getting a WR1 at the end of the year but he's also certainly not  a WR5.  That's laughable.


No, that's reality... Look at his game logs from 2017. He had a 3-game stretch, weeks 6-8 with under 30 yards. Is that not WR5 status?
Then, in week 9 he goes off for 175 and 2 TDs. Guess how many people started him that week? 

I can agree that WR5 is his floor (can't get much worse than that). But not sure he can be depended on for much more if Brissett is out there.
Certainly not a risk I'd be willing to take at his current ADP. 

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23 minutes ago, K197040 said:

No argument about the positive impact Luck has on Hilton.  But I don't think you can look at his season with Brisset and call him unstartable.   Sure you're probably not getting a WR1 at the end of the year but he's also certainly not  a WR5.  That's laughable.

The problem was his overall stats looked ok.  But just look at the game logs.  He had 4 big games and 12 games with under 60 yds.  Hell six of his games were under 30 yds.  I'm sure it would be better this time around since Brisset has had two years not 8 days in the offense like last time.  But its a huge risk to take him at his current ADP.

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1 hour ago, AirForceOne said:


How about Week 13 (fantasy playoffs for many) when Brissett targeted Hilton 4 times for a grand total of 2 catches for 20 yards?
Shouldn't he have known the playbook by then? Fact is, he's not Luck.

Granted Hilton DID have a few huge weeks that season, but at that point most owners had been burned repeatedly and left him on the bench. 
Which is really the worst-case situation you can have.  

There's plenty of uncertainty surrounding Luck's status, whether he'll miss any/some/all of the season, but I don't think you can discount his impact on whether Hilton is a WR1 or WR5 this season.
 

 

Do you mean week 14? Because I don't know anyone who's in the playoffs in week 13, and many don't start until week 15 (4-team playoffs). 

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4 minutes ago, youngrice said:

The problem was his overall stats looked ok.  But just look at the game logs.  He had 4 big games and 12 games with under 60 yds.  Hell six of his games were under 30 yds.  I'm sure it would be better this time around since Brisset has had two years not 8 days in the offense like last time.  But its a huge risk to take him at his current ADP.

 

I think that's a ginormous difference this season as opposed to 2017. They had no chemistry two years ago. They've been in the same offense for two years now, they've undoubtedly been working together in camp, and I'm guessing will get preseason work together. Does this downgrade Hilton? Sure. Does it make him unrosterable? I don't think so, nor do I think it makes him unstartable. I think he still could be a WR2 this year, and for those in 3-WR leagues or 2-Flex leagues, I believe he'll definitely be startable. If someone wants to draft him as a WR1, I'd let them. But if someone has a stud WR1 and wants to pick up Hilton as a WR2, I don't see an issue with that. 

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

I posted that right before the news came out. Until we hear definitive news on Luck Hilton is a DND.

 

Yeah I had TY as #1 WR overall before Luck got hurt. A lot riskier now.

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14 minutes ago, youngrice said:

The problem was his overall stats looked ok.  But just look at the game logs.  He had 4 big games and 12 games with under 60 yds.  Hell six of his games were under 30 yds.  I'm sure it would be better this time around since Brisset has had two years not 8 days in the offense like last time.  But its a huge risk to take him at his current ADP.

Sure...I get that part of it.  And my original response had nothing to do with his ADP.

It was a response to a poster calling him unstartable and a WR5 if Luck is out.  Which I strongly disagree with.

Edited by K197040

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16 minutes ago, AirForceOne said:


No, that's reality... Look at his game logs from 2017. He had a 3-game stretch, weeks 6-8 with under 30 yards. Is that not WR5 status?
Then, in week 9 he goes off for 175 and 2 TDs. Guess how many people started him that week? 

I can agree that WR5 is his floor (can't get much worse than that). But not sure he can be depended on for much more if Brissett is out there.
Certainly not a risk I'd be willing to take at his current ADP. 

Again...I made comment about his ADP.   My point is that even with Brissett, he has value.   I'd be fine starting him at my WR2 or flex.

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3 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 Indy has a lot of options (Funchess, Hines, Campbell, Ebron, Doyle, etc.) this year to take away targets from him

 

 

Hmmm, that's a bad list.  Every single one of these guys would be riding the pine on a good team.

I'm going the opposite way:  I like Hilton because he's their only playmaker.

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3 hours ago, joshua18 said:

His best year (2016 where he led the NFL in receiving yards), he was the beneficiary of literally every other main receiving option on that team being hurt for a significant period of time.  Indy has a lot of options (Funchess, Hines, Campbell, Ebron, Doyle, etc.) this year to take away targets from him, and he's never been a big TD guy. 

Every team in the league has a lot of options. However, often times like in this case most of those options suck. 

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6 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

I've probably been the biggest Hilton fan and defender on these boards for the past 4 years.  That being said, I'm fading him heavily this year.  

He has never had consecutive WR1 PPG seasons, and is approaching his age-30 season.  

His best year (2016 where he led the NFL in receiving yards), he was the beneficiary of literally every other main receiving option on that team being hurt for a significant period of time.  Indy has a lot of options (Funchess, Hines, Campbell, Ebron, Doyle, etc.) this year to take away targets from him, and he's never been a big TD guy. 

I fully expect a high-end WR2 season from Hilton as his ceiling, with the likelihood that he finishes as a low-end WR2.  Not enough production for his current ADP IMO.  I would take Tyler Lockett over him pretty easily. 

 

 

Every team has "a lot of options" if you just count bodies on the roster.  But let's look at these "options":

Funchess - post-hype guy cast aside by Carolina; could only get a one-year deal, no history with Luck or in this offense, hands of stone
Hines - satellite back (all teams have one), was here last year and hardly dented Hilton's target share
Campbell - rookie (they usually struggle), no history with Luck or in this offense
Ebron - was here last year
Doyle - was here last year (partial season)

The things that takes target share aware from a WR1 are generally: (1) an impact signing at WR or TE; (2) massive change in game flow (go from bad team to good team, resulting in a lot of run-heavy second halves); (3) massive change in scheme; (4) declination of the WR1; or (5) breakout of WR or TE who was on roster last year.

#1 is out.  #5 is essentially impossible given this list; both Ebron and Doyle have already had big seasons.  #4 is always possible but I doubt Hilton will have any real physical reverses, absent an injury, for at least two more seasons.  #3 is possible if Luck misses significant time (team would have to go more run-and-screen heavy).  #2 is unlikely; Colts won 10 last year and Vegas has them winning 10 this year.

So we're really just worried about Luck, but Luck would have to miss significant time (not a game or two) to have a massive impact on Hilton's value.

TLDR: Monitor Luck situation; other factors unlikely to adversely affect Hilton.

 

 

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Hilton is in for a huge season, even with brisset, TY is just so good and fast. YAC beast. Insane route rounning, the ball finds him naturally. Now with Funchess, Ebron, Campbell they allow Hilton to get more  open as defenses have to account for other playmakers. Sign me up all day for some TY 

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12 minutes ago, dannyz6969 said:

.. the ball finds him naturally.

 

Ohhh ok... I get it now. If the ball just ‘finds him’, we don’t need to worry about the dude throwing the ball.

Carry on...

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We know from history that Hilton is a WR1 with Luck and a boom-or-bust WR3 with anyone else.  

 

This year as he turns 30, his upside isn't as high as it has been in the past IMO. 

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People ripping the Colts' other receiving options is as ridiculous as people saying Hilton is worthless with Brissett. Funchess is not a WR1, he proved that, but he could make at least a solid WR2 and nice big end zone target. As for Campbell, he's a rookie, so? He has the talent to make a serious contribution, which is not exactly unprecedented for rookie WRs (Ridley last year, Schuster the year before, etc). Ebron obviously proved himself in a huge way, and Doyle did so before he came along, so dismissing them is even dumber.

I think at the very least they mean teams can't just key on Hilton and the various legit receiving options mean more sustained drives, so more plays, so more touches for Hilton. Anyway if Luck is out, yes Hilton takes a big hit, but he's far from undraftable or WR5. 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

We know from history that Hilton is a WR1 with Luck and a boom-or-bust WR3 with anyone else.  

No we really don't, because we only have 1 year of no Luck to go on when Brissett was thrust into a role he was hardly ready for and this wasn't the same team anyway. For starters, the OL is night and day better, so there is basically no history to go on. You may be right and he is only a WR3 with Brissett, but my point is we don't know. Brissett looks IMO like a very capable QB. 

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40 minutes ago, AirForceOne said:

 

Ohhh ok... I get it now. If the ball just ‘finds him’, we don’t need to worry about the dude throwing the ball.

Carry on...

 

Or you can admit that maybe he'll be better than you think with Brissett. Since they have more than 8 days to get on the same page this time around and all. Yes, he'll put up lesser numbers without Luck, but this is simply not the same situation as 2017.

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2 hours ago, bomont said:

No we really don't, because we only have 1 year of no Luck to go on when Brissett was thrust into a role he was hardly ready for and this wasn't the same team anyway. For starters, the OL is night and day better, so there is basically no history to go on. You may be right and he is only a WR3 with Brissett, but my point is we don't know. Brissett looks IMO like a very capable QB. 

 

Brissett is capable, but that's not enough to make Hilton startable in road games as anything more than a WR3. 

 

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