Josh Gordon 2019 Outlook

[SyNdicateZ 1,376]

8 hours ago, ss3walkman said:

Patterson and Hogan had 3 each too. That’s 9 TDs available 

and then add that to the tds Gordon did have

[Brownsfan74 889]

Where do you guys like drafting him?  In mocks I seem to be able to get him at the 5/6 turn, but I think that's because the site I use hasn't bumped him up yet.  In a real draft, with his talent, I see him going before that. There's always the dude who owned him in 2013 and overvalues him.

I would think at worst he is a solid WR2 with upside in that offense and with his performance last year.  You do have to build in some risk of him getting suspended again.

Edited August 18, 2019 by Brownsfan74

[ss3walkman 1,226]

10 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

Where do you guys like drafting him?  In mocks I seem to be able to get him at the 5/6 turn, but I think that's because the site I use hasn't bumped him up yet.  In a real draft, with his talent, I see him going before that. There's always the dude who owned him in 2013 and overvalues him.

I would think at worst he is a solid WR2 with upside in that offense and with his performance last year.  You do have to build in some risk of him getting suspended again.

It’s not good draft strategy, but if you want him you’re probably going to have to reach for him. Personally, I would think round 5 is a good spot to get him. But the thing is everyone will start looking at him before then. If the draft is going WR heavy or you go RB with your first two picks, you might have to reach and grab him in the third. Granted I drafted 2 weeks ago and he was my last pic (second to last overall) so I was fortunate. To give you an idea of what the draft looked like Edelman, Allen, Diggs, Woods and Cooper were round 3 picks. Cooks, Golladay and Jeffrey went in round 4. Green, Godwin and M. Williams were the 3 taken in round 5. You would have to factor in your draft position. At second overall, after my third pick I wouldn’t pick again for almost 20 picks which he’d possibly be gone. Id definitely feel at the round 5/6 turn around would be my last opportunity to get him. No way he’d make it back at the bottom of the 6th. 

 

[FeastMode 374]

28 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

Where do you guys like drafting him?  In mocks I seem to be able to get him at the 5/6 turn, but I think that's because the site I use hasn't bumped him up yet.  In a real draft, with his talent, I see him going before that. There's always the dude who owned him in 2013 and overvalues him.

I would think at worst he is a solid WR2 with upside in that offense and with his performance last year.  You do have to build in some risk of him getting suspended again.

Well, at worst he makes it 2 games, goes for a rusty 52 yards his first, goes for 121 and 2 tds his second, then he’s suspended and you’ve lost your 4th round pick for the season.  But yeah if he plays a full slate of games it’s real hard to imagine he’s not aWR 2, with number one overall potential.

[FantasyGuru24 270]

36 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

Where do you guys like drafting him?  In mocks I seem to be able to get him at the 5/6 turn, but I think that's because the site I use hasn't bumped him up yet.  In a real draft, with his talent, I see him going before that. There's always the dude who owned him in 2013 and overvalues him.

I would think at worst he is a solid WR2 with upside in that offense and with his performance last year.  You do have to build in some risk of him getting suspended again.

 

I would say 3rd or 4th round. I would honestly take him early 3rd. Im higher on Flash than most. No Gronk is HUGE for his fantasy outlook. Josh also had a bunch of receptions last year where he was tackled within the 5 yard line. He easily left 5-6 TDs on the board. Would not be surprised by a 80 rec, 1300 yds, 12 TD season by him. 

[Foppatosakic 184]

Hello darkness my old friend....I can't believe Im back in the Gordon thread. All aboard the hype train choo chooo!

[youngrice 1,303]

10 hours ago, ss3walkman said:

Patterson and Hogan had 3 each too. That’s 9 TDs available 

Yeah all 9 will def go to Gordon.  I get it now.

[ss3walkman 1,226]

1 hour ago, youngrice said:

Yeah all 9 will def go to Gordon.  I get it now.

Potentially. 

[FFCollusion 5,411]

If we're being realistic, just for a moment...

In a 12 team PPR league, I think 5th round is the right spot.
Look I love Josh Gordon and I've been on the train forever including the 2013 season he carried me to a championship.  But the reality is that Josh played 12 games last year and was a low end WR2.  Yes, the upside for #1 is there, yes he was learning the offense, yes he was out of football shape, yada yada yada.  But at 11.6 PPG last year, there were 36 WRs who were better on a per game basis.  30 RBs who were better on a per game basis, and 6 TEs.  That's 72 skill players that beat him per game.  In a 12 team league, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex... that's exactly 72 players.  Last year that makes Josh Gordon the best bench player in the league.  Ultimately valuing him as a 7th round player.

Given his upside you can add a round or 2, but given his risk you could easily negate those same 2 rounds.

Personally for me, I think the 5th round is the earliest I could manage for him.  Give me 4 rounds to get my core team, and I'll gladly take the 5th round risk of Josh Gordon as my flex player, for the upside he offers.  Current names being drafted in the 5th round:
On the WR front we have:
Lockett, Ridley, AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, Jarvis Landry.

Locket was WR 16, 13.8 PPG 57/965/10

Ridley was WR 20, 13.1 PPG, 64/821/10

Boyd was WR15, 15.8 PPG, 76/1028/7

Landry was WR19 13.4 PPG, 81/976/4

AJ Green is probably the most interesting comparison.  If we're talking about elite talents with legitimate risks to only play half a season, which one are you taking first?

The others, I'm not saying are better than Gordon, just pointing out I think this is the right range for him.

Ultimately we're looking at late 4th, early-mid 5th and it'll be based on draft position.  If you have a top 4 pick, and he's there late 4th and you don't want to risk him not making it through the wrap, take him, no problem.  If you have a bottom 4 pick, and he's sitting there in the 4th... I'm not reaching, even if I don't think he'll make it back to me at the 5th.  However, if he's there late 5th round, I'm gladly scooping him up. I can't imagine he falls to the 7th round in any competent league, but in a lot of casual leagues you might see him make it to the 6th.

*Yes, I know the numbers are a bit skewed as the offense was new, 1 game with CLE, etc.  They only slightly increased even when I cherry pick his better run. (12.4ppg using weeks 6-15)

 

1 hour ago, youngrice said:

Yeah all 9 will def go to Gordon.  I get it now.

 

Gronk scored 3
CP84 actually scored 4
Hogan had 3
Josh Gordon himself had 3
Burkhead probably isn't making the team, and if he does, likely won't be active, that's another TD.

Now we're looking at 14 TD's 'up for grabs' in the NE offense.

BUT...
I'll take the under on James White scoring 12 again
and I'll take the over on Brady only throwing 29. (In the 4 years prior he averaged 35 TD)

Meaning there could easily be 20 TDs in this offense unaccounted for, for the 2019 season.
No, Gordon isn't going to get them all, I expect Sony's to increase, N'Keal is going to get some, and the field as a whole...
But the point is there's plenty of opportunity and plenty of talent.  These are the 2 most important ingredients for fantasy success, and Josh Gordon has both.

...
#1 WR OVERALL, 2000/20!

[youngrice 1,303]

1 minute ago, FFCollusion said:

If we're being realistic, just for a moment...

In a 12 team PPR league, I think 5th round is the right spot.
Look I love Josh Gordon and I've been on the train forever including the 2013 season he carried me to a championship.  But the reality is that Josh played 12 games last year and was a low end WR2.  Yes, the upside for #1 is there, yes he was learning the offense, yes he was out of football shape, yada yada yada.  But at 11.6 PPG last year, there were 36 WRs who were better on a per game basis.  30 RBs who were better on a per game basis, and 6 TEs.  That's 72 skill players that beat him per game.  In a 12 team league, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex... that's exactly 72 players.  Last year that makes Josh Gordon the best bench player in the league.  Ultimately valuing him as a 7th round player.

Given his upside you can add a round or 2, but given his risk you could easily negate those same 2 rounds.

Personally for me, I think the 5th round is the earliest I could manage for him.  Give me 4 rounds to get my core team, and I'll gladly take the 5th round risk of Josh Gordon as my flex player, for the upside he offers.  Current names being drafted in the 5th round:
On the WR front we have:
Lockett, Ridley, AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, Jarvis Landry.

Locket was WR 16, 13.8 PPG 57/965/10

Ridley was WR 20, 13.1 PPG, 64/821/10

Boyd was WR15, 15.8 PPG, 76/1028/7

Landry was WR19 13.4 PPG, 81/976/4

AJ Green is probably the most interesting comparison.  If we're talking about elite talents with legitimate risks to only play half a season, which one are you taking first?

The others, I'm not saying are better than Gordon, just pointing out I think this is the right range for him.

Ultimately we're looking at late 4th, early-mid 5th and it'll be based on draft position.  If you have a top 4 pick, and he's there late 4th and you don't want to risk him not making it through the wrap, take him, no problem.  If you have a bottom 4 pick, and he's sitting there in the 4th... I'm not reaching, even if I don't think he'll make it back to me at the 5th.  However, if he's there late 5th round, I'm gladly scooping him up. I can't imagine he falls to the 7th round in any competent league, but in a lot of casual leagues you might see him make it to the 6th.

*Yes, I know the numbers are a bit skewed as the offense was new, 1 game with CLE, etc.  They only slightly increased even when I cherry pick his better run. (12.4ppg using weeks 6-15)

 

 

Gronk scored 3
CP84 actually scored 4
Hogan had 3
Josh Gordon himself had 3
Burkhead probably isn't making the team, and if he does, likely won't be active, that's another TD.

Now we're looking at 14 TD's 'up for grabs' in the NE offense.

 BUT...
I'll take the under on James White scoring 12 again
 and I'll take the over on Brady only throwing 29. (In the 4 years prior he averaged 35 TD)

Meaning there could easily be 20 TDs in this offense unaccounted for, for the 2019 season.
No, Gordon isn't going to get them all, I expect Sony's to increase, N'Keal is going to get some, and the field as a whole...
 But the point is there's plenty of opportunity and plenty of talent.  These are the 2 most important ingredients for fantasy success, and Josh Gordon has both.

...
#1 WR OVERALL, 2000/20!

I like Gordon and agree with your analysis that he should go in fifth round.   Only question is did you watch Brady throw the ball outside the numbers last year??  He consistently floated the ball.  Simply doesn't have the arm strength anymore.  Don't get me wrong i don't think that effects the team since thats not what they are built to do.  But it definitely effects the WR that plays outside on almost all his routes.

[CABLE87 1,749]

41 minutes ago, youngrice said:

I like Gordon and agree with your analysis that he should go in fifth round.   Only question is did you watch Brady throw the ball outside the numbers last year??  He consistently floated the ball.  Simply doesn't have the arm strength anymore.  Don't get me wrong i don't think that effects the team since thats not what they are built to do.  But it definitely effects the WR that plays outside on almost all his routes.

 

I wouldn't put too much merit on that. They'll use him like they used gronk

[dlionsfan901 567]

I’ve owned him every year he’s been available for the last 5 years.  Last year I watched a lot of NE games and they hardly aired it out.  I know Gronk is gone so someone has to assume the targets.  I burnt a 4th rounder on him last year can’t see myself doing that again.  If he’s there in the 7-8th round I might take a stab.  This addiction is horrible.  Watch me end up taking him in the 4th round again smh. 

[PlayTheWaivers 1,886]

1 hour ago, FFCollusion said:

If we're being realistic, just for a moment...

In a 12 team PPR league, I think 5th round is the right spot.
Look I love Josh Gordon and I've been on the train forever including the 2013 season he carried me to a championship.  But the reality is that Josh played 12 games last year and was a low end WR2.  Yes, the upside for #1 is there, yes he was learning the offense, yes he was out of football shape, yada yada yada.  But at 11.6 PPG last year, there were 36 WRs who were better on a per game basis.  30 RBs who were better on a per game basis, and 6 TEs.  That's 72 skill players that beat him per game.  In a 12 team league, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex... that's exactly 72 players.  Last year that makes Josh Gordon the best bench player in the league.  Ultimately valuing him as a 7th round player.

Given his upside you can add a round or 2, but given his risk you could easily negate those same 2 rounds.

Personally for me, I think the 5th round is the earliest I could manage for him.  Give me 4 rounds to get my core team, and I'll gladly take the 5th round risk of Josh Gordon as my flex player, for the upside he offers.  Current names being drafted in the 5th round:
On the WR front we have:
Lockett, Ridley, AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, Jarvis Landry.

Locket was WR 16, 13.8 PPG 57/965/10

Ridley was WR 20, 13.1 PPG, 64/821/10

Boyd was WR15, 15.8 PPG, 76/1028/7

Landry was WR19 13.4 PPG, 81/976/4

AJ Green is probably the most interesting comparison.  If we're talking about elite talents with legitimate risks to only play half a season, which one are you taking first?

The others, I'm not saying are better than Gordon, just pointing out I think this is the right range for him.

Ultimately we're looking at late 4th, early-mid 5th and it'll be based on draft position.  If you have a top 4 pick, and he's there late 4th and you don't want to risk him not making it through the wrap, take him, no problem.  If you have a bottom 4 pick, and he's sitting there in the 4th... I'm not reaching, even if I don't think he'll make it back to me at the 5th.  However, if he's there late 5th round, I'm gladly scooping him up. I can't imagine he falls to the 7th round in any competent league, but in a lot of casual leagues you might see him make it to the 6th.

*Yes, I know the numbers are a bit skewed as the offense was new, 1 game with CLE, etc.  They only slightly increased even when I cherry pick his better run. (12.4ppg using weeks 6-15)

 

 

Gronk scored 3
CP84 actually scored 4
Hogan had 3
Josh Gordon himself had 3
Burkhead probably isn't making the team, and if he does, likely won't be active, that's another TD.

Now we're looking at 14 TD's 'up for grabs' in the NE offense.

BUT...
I'll take the under on James White scoring 12 again
and I'll take the over on Brady only throwing 29. (In the 4 years prior he averaged 35 TD)

Meaning there could easily be 20 TDs in this offense unaccounted for, for the 2019 season.
No, Gordon isn't going to get them all, I expect Sony's to increase, N'Keal is going to get some, and the field as a whole...
But the point is there's plenty of opportunity and plenty of talent.  These are the 2 most important ingredients for fantasy success, and Josh Gordon has both.

...
#1 WR OVERALL, 2000/20!

 

Great post- thank you. Came here to research this post as I was on the clock in late 5th / early 6th, and you're right. I got him at 6.4 and this was full ppr 12 team, with options like Kirk and Allen Robinson around the area, and Ekeler etc at RB. Seems like the perfect place to get him. 

[blvck408 23]

I just drafted in a 12 team 1ppr and got him in the 8th round! 96th pick . I guess yahoo rankings weren’t updated lol

[KB24MVP 162]

Damn a guy picked him right before me... 

[ss3walkman 1,226]

4 hours ago, youngrice said:

I like Gordon and agree with your analysis that he should go in fifth round.   Only question is did you watch Brady throw the ball outside the numbers last year??  He consistently floated the ball.  Simply doesn't have the arm strength anymore.  Don't get me wrong i don't think that effects the team since thats not what they are built to do.  But it definitely effects the WR that plays outside on almost all his routes.

Gordon on a slant can/will be their bread and butter. 

[RunCMC 2,343]

1 hour ago, ss3walkman said:

Gordon on a slant can/will be their bread and butter. 

 

Yezzir, it's already Brady's bread and butter this late in his career. The short to intermediate routes are gonna be lovely with these two. 

[lightweight3 221]

If you can get him as your WR3 its a value.  Right now Yahoo has him preranked as 142nd overall so I stole him in the 8th(right after Sterling Shepherd and right before Marquise Goodwin).  It works out perfect if you go RB heavy early.  For those drafting on yahoo right now enjoy being able to steal him.  I'm guessing that'll end if he shows out in preseason.

[bhawks489 3,669]

1 hour ago, RunCMC said:

 

Yezzir, it's already Brady's bread and butter this late in his career. The short to intermediate routes are gonna be lovely with these two. 

If brady can hit him in stride. Looked like the chemistry was a bit off with bradys throws last year. Still had some nice plays though.

[Corleone 1,961]

For those in auction leagues and curious as to what Gordon might go for, he went for $8 in my PPR league tonight ($200 budget). 
Every auction is different of course, but that was his market value amongst my group.

[MissingLink 45]

Got him in the 10th round in my 10 man standard scoring league. Pettis, Fitz, Kirk, Robinson, and Fuller were the other WRs to go in this round. 

[The Cam's Pyjamas 162]

Anyone taking him earlier than round 8-9;

A. Has a very short memory

B. Is a masochist

C. Likes the Josh Gordon thread too much

D. All of the above

[FFCollusion 5,411]

2 minutes ago, The Cam's Pyjamas said:

Anyone taking him earlier than round 8-9;

A. Has a very short memory

 

Last year, once acclimated, Josh Gordon averaged 12.4 PPG with the Patriots. (Week 6-15)

Some players in his range:
Jarvis Landry, 13.4PPG, 5th round ADP
Calvin Ridley, 13.1PPG, 5th round ADP
Tyler Lockett, 13.8PPG, 5th round ADP

6th Round:
Robby Anderson(11.5ppg), Kristian Kirk(10.3ppg), Alshon Jeffery(14.3ppg), DJ Moore(10.2ppg)

7th Round:
AR15(11.9), Fuller(15.2ppg), Pettis(11.5ppg), C.Samuel(11.6ppg)

When you consider this, plus the gaping hole in the NE passing game, combined with the elite talent/potential of Josh Gordon, saying 8th/9th round, is laughable, unless 100% dependent on suspension (100% legitimate concern)

If you don't want to pay a 5th, I get it.  But the competition in the 6th/7th simply doesn't have the same opportunity/upside of Josh Gordon, he absolutely deserves to go 5~6.
If you're risk adverse, or have been burned in the past, I get it, but being afraid isn't an accurate analysis.

[ss3walkman 1,226]

1 hour ago, FFCollusion said:

being afraid isn't an accurate analysis.

Fear is the path to the dark side. I sense much fear in him.

[Ryansm11 2,068]

1 hour ago, The Cam's Pyjamas said:

Anyone taking him earlier than round 8-9;

A. Has a very short memory

B. Is a masochist

C. Likes the Josh Gordon thread too much

D. All of the above

Took him at 6.01! So I’d go with D. In all seriousness He is one of the few guys in that range that have a shot at being a WR1. It could be a bust for sure, but I think he could be pretty good.