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Josh Bell 2019 Outlook

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All of his statcast expected metrics are top 3 percent in the league except for xBA which is still top 8 percent at .303.

So basically what he is doing now is pretty much validated by his quality of contact.

Has anything changed from last season? Heck yes. He has more than doubled his barrel percentage and raised his exit velocity by over 4 MPH to an elite number.  And he has raised his launch angle by over 2 degrees to a number that is still good for line drives but more conducive to fly balls. That is why his xBA is over .300.

The only thing keeping him from being truly elite is his plate discipline which has gotten worse compared to last season in terms of BB and K percentage. Who knows if maybe that is the tradeoff for getting this better quality of contact.  If so it is worth it.

Edited by lassetjus

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As I said in the last years thread, dont overlook the addition of new hitting coaches and the subtraction of Branson... Bell looks way more consistent at the plate this year than he did last year. An absolute beast in OBP or point leagues 

 

The offense has been pretty terrible this year but its hard to imagine it gets much worse. Dickerson is due back and I'm guessing at some point the Pirates will get some production out of SS, 3B, and C. Maybe not much, but some. That oughtta help his numbers a bit 

Edited by mpbaseball22
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11 minutes ago, mpbaseball22 said:

As I said in the last years thread, dont overlook the addition of new hitting coaches and the subtraction of Branson... Bell looks way more consistent at the plate this year than he did last year. An absolute beast in OBP or point leagues 

 

The offense has been pretty terrible this year but its hard to imagine it gets much worse. Dickerson is due back and I'm guessing at some point the Pirates will get some production out of SS, 3B, and C. Maybe not much, but some. That oughtta help his numbers a bit 

Help his numbers? what more do we want? I mean I will gladly take it but it’s hard to imagine it gets better than this.

Edited by hangin n wangin

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2 hours ago, lassetjus said:

The only thing keeping him from being truly elite is his plate discipline which has gotten worse compared to last season in terms of BB and K percentage. Who knows if maybe that is the tradeoff for getting this better quality of contact.  If so it is worth it.

 

Great point here. Seems like a tradeoff. Not settling for walks and swinging at pitches he can reach even slightly out of the zone, and he’s still strong enough to get solid contact. Definitely worth it so far.

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5 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Help his numbers? what more do we want? 

 

More PA + R + RBI 

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Bell is now the #6 scoring hitter in my league, not bad for a guy you probably grabbed off the WW. Don't like his matchups this week, but he's way too hot to sit.

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15 minutes ago, Resident A-hole said:

Bell is now the #6 scoring hitter in my league, not bad for a guy you probably grabbed off the WW. Don't like his matchups this week, but he's way too hot to sit.

In deeper leagues he was way more than a WW. [...]

 

Edited by tonycpsu
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1 hour ago, Resident A-hole said:

Bell is now the #6 scoring hitter in my league, not bad for a guy you probably grabbed off the WW. Don't like his matchups this week, but he's way too hot to sit.

Going up against 4 lefties this week and three very tough right handers in Weaver, Grienke, and Paddack. Has Ray tonight then faces three lefties in a row at San Diego. He's batting .250 vs lefties this year so not that bad but not expecting a banner week. He closes the week out on Sunday vs Paddack.

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6 hours ago, Resident A-hole said:

Bell is now the #6 scoring hitter in my league, not bad for a guy you probably grabbed off the WW. Don't like his matchups this week, but he's way too hot to sit.

[...]

Dude has been a monster. 

Edited by tonycpsu
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He seems to be legitimately breaking out. Who's worried about the lineup though?

Thats my only concern with him. If he one of the few guys mashing they're just gonna be really careful and keep pitching around him.

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On 5/13/2019 at 10:33 AM, bigbluecrew56 said:

Going up against 4 lefties this week and three very tough right handers in Weaver, Grienke, and Paddack. Has Ray tonight then faces three lefties in a row at San Diego. He's batting .250 vs lefties this year so not that bad but not expecting a banner week. He closes the week out on Sunday vs Paddack.

 

10 for 24 (.416), 4 Homers, 9 RBI, and 5 Runs. Looks like he will miss Paddack tomorrow but I don't think he's going to be playing tomorrow. He's earned a day off! 

 

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11 hours ago, Cdub2k said:

 

10 for 24 (.416), 4 Homers, 9 RBI, and 5 Runs. Looks like he will miss Paddack tomorrow but I don't think he's going to be playing tomorrow. He's earned a day off! 

 

Glad to have been wrong and banner week produced. 

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For a guy who is sitting between top 5 and top 10 depending on yahoo league settings as far as hitters, this guy sure gets very little buzz.

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1 hour ago, DJSatane said:

For a guy who is sitting between top 5 and top 10 depending on yahoo league settings as far as hitters, this guy sure gets very little buzz.

He's essentially morphed himself into Big Papi status. 

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On 5/12/2019 at 9:45 PM, lassetjus said:

All of his statcast expected metrics are top 3 percent in the league except for xBA which is still top 8 percent at .303.

So basically what he is doing now is pretty much validated by his quality of contact.

Has anything changed from last season? Heck yes. He has more than doubled his barrel percentage and raised his exit velocity by over 4 MPH to an elite number.  And he has raised his launch angle by over 2 degrees to a number that is still good for line drives but more conducive to fly balls. That is why his xBA is over .300.

The only thing keeping him from being truly elite is his plate discipline which has gotten worse compared to last season in terms of BB and K percentage. Who knows if maybe that is the tradeoff for getting this better quality of contact.  If so it is worth it.

 

Ben Clemens on Fangraphs has found the change to be with his batting stance and mechanics being more consistent.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/josh-bell-now-with-power/

 

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On 4/4/2019 at 2:30 AM, Hockey_Baseball said:

He's turrible. He'll ground into a few RBI because they insist on batting him cleanup... but I avoided everywhere.

Every time Josh Bell homers I go back to this post and laugh my a** off. 

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22 minutes ago, lbjames6 said:

Every time Josh Bell homers I go back to this post and laugh my a** off. 

 

LOL

 

That's a good one!

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Guy has been an absolute monster over the last 4 weeks, but i can't help but think this is one of the biggest sell high candidates in the league right now. Then again, only 26 and the advanced metrics show this isn't a fluke, and the adjustments are real. Feel like you could get some serious value for him right now.. Would be a shame if he regressed back to what he's always been. I'm considering hopping off the ship, as his trade value is as high as it will ever be in 2019

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15 hours ago, Motown_Magic said:

Guy has been an absolute monster over the last 4 weeks, but i can't help but think this is one of the biggest sell high candidates in the league right now. Then again, only 26 and the advanced metrics show this isn't a fluke, and the adjustments are real. Feel like you could get some serious value for him right now.. Would be a shame if he regressed back to what he's always been. I'm considering hopping off the ship, as his trade value is as high as it will ever be in 2019

I get the idea of selling based on value. But he's legit and everything about his numbers say he's legit. 

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Kinda hard to sell at this moment. 

 

Based on his metrics and what we've seen, it seems close to legit.

And if it's actually legit and this guy keeps going, I don't think his value will be 'as high as it will ever be'.

 

Already being considered as an early-rounder recently in trade markets, and maybe 1 more month of this kind of performance might solidify him into a legit early-rounder asset. especially in keepers.

 

I still remember what Goldschmidt and Freeman were worth around in 2011-2012. They were also considered as a solid mid-round 1B, got 'hot' for a few months in their breakout years (of course, the metrics suggested them as legit), and many people jumped off the ship regarding that they would be at their peak value.

 

Look what happened since then... legit 1st-2nd rounders. I see Bell being that case. There were some 'surprise' 1Bs having a nice year or two (Aguilar, Smoak, etc.)... But Bell's metric is not just showing elite numbers, it's actually league-leading numbers.

 

+ I don't own him in any leagues, I considered buying him... but obviously almost none of the Bell owners are willing to give up this guy right now...

Edited by jhsong916
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He isn't hitting cheapies either.  Last night an absolue bomb into the river.  Greg Brown almost fell out of the booth after he hit it.  

https://www.mlb.com/video/josh-bell-homers-15-on-a-fly-ball-to-right-field

Great article on Bell a couple of days ago from one of the best baseball writers Bob Nightengale.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2019/05/20/pirates-josh-bell-breakout-star/3738862002/

Edited by B&F
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1 hour ago, B&F said:

He isn't hitting cheapies either.  Last night an absolue bomb into the river.

12 of his 15 bombs have been over 400 ft. Dude is a stud, and personally I think he's a buy high and enjoy the ride.

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